Hurricane Ernesto - Cat. 1

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shaggy
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#3501 Postby shaggy » Thu Aug 31, 2006 11:13 pm

its satellite signature look great along with the radar imagery whats the chances of this storm being in an intensifying stage that will continue for a few miles inland sort of like what happened over florida?
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#3502 Postby craptacular » Thu Aug 31, 2006 11:16 pm

1316m 850 mb height, but still 988mb pressure on final VDM.

URNT12 KNHC 010412
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 01/03:43:20Z
B. 34 deg 01 min N
078 deg 06 min W
C. 850 mb 1316 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 150 deg 066 kt
G. 055 deg 027 nm
H. EXTRAP 988 mb
I. 15 C/ 1522 m
J. 19 C/ 1524 m
K. 18 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/ 8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF304 2405A ERNESTO OB 10
MAX FL WIND 66 KT NE QUAD 03:35:10 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 850 MB
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#3503 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 31, 2006 11:17 pm


URNT11 KNHC 010412
97779 04064 60334 79100 61000 31028 5758/ /8029
RMK AF304 2405A ERNESTO OB 11
LAST REPORT
;



The epilog to the missions for Ernesto.
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#3504 Postby UpTheCreek » Thu Aug 31, 2006 11:25 pm

ncdowneast wrote:its satellite signature look great along with the radar imagery whats the chances of this storm being in an intensifying stage that will continue for a few miles inland sort of like what happened over florida?


Well, I hope not too far inland.....I'm between you and that thing! lol :eek:
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#3505 Postby gotoman38 » Thu Aug 31, 2006 11:25 pm

ncdowneast wrote:its satellite signature look great along with the radar imagery whats the chances of this storm being in an intensifying stage that will continue for a few miles inland sort of like what happened over florida?


I'd never say impossible.... the swamps down there are warm now I'm sure, but my thought is that the atmos conds wouldn't support it.... E is already bumping against the cold front that hit us here in triangle yesterday and today.
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we heard a plane flying

#3506 Postby emeraldislencguy » Thu Aug 31, 2006 11:26 pm

we heard a plane flying over about an hour ago--could this have been huricane hunter??
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#3507 Postby Deathray » Thu Aug 31, 2006 11:27 pm

If I remember correctly, the water he's over right now is very hot isn't it?

Off of Florida it was hot, then approaching land, a little cooler, then coastline is hot again (hope my memory is working now)
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#3508 Postby shaggy » Thu Aug 31, 2006 11:29 pm

gotoman38 wrote:
ncdowneast wrote:its satellite signature look great along with the radar imagery whats the chances of this storm being in an intensifying stage that will continue for a few miles inland sort of like what happened over florida?


I'd never say impossible.... the swamps down there are warm now I'm sure, but my thought is that the atmos conds wouldn't support it.... E is already bumping against the cold front that hit us here in triangle yesterday and today.


that may help him with a gradient and from the high and may actually make some winds stronger in certain sides of the storm mostly the east side but this latest sat pic is by far the most impressive looking TS i have seen in yours!!!
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#3509 Postby Thunder44 » Fri Sep 01, 2006 3:56 am

ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
500 AM EDT FRI SEP 01 2006

...ERNESTO WEAKENING OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA BUT STILL PRODUCING
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS...

AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
SOUTH CAROLINA TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED...AND THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM SOUTH SANTEE
RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF CAPE FEAR
NORTH CAROLINA TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND
ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC
COAST AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AREA DUE TO A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT NORTH OF ERNESTO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED INLAND NEAR LATITUDE 35.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.8 WEST. THIS
POSITION IS ABOUT 20 MILES...35 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KINSTON
NORTH CAROLINA...AND ABOUT 150 MILES...240 KM...SOUTHWEST OF
NORFOLK VIRGINIA.

ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER
FARTHER INLAND OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS MORNING AND OVER
EASTERN VIRGINIA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS ERNESTO MOVES FARTHER
INLAND TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185
KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST FROM THE CENTER.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT
990 MB...29.23 INCHES.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES...INCLUDING THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS OF UP TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 3 TO 5 INCHES IS POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE
FLOW WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND
SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA THROUGH THIS MORNING.

REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...35.1 N...77.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB
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#3510 Postby kenl01 » Fri Sep 01, 2006 5:50 am

I doubt Ernesto was anything near 70mph.

I just do not buy it. Yesterday this system passed about 55 miles east of here, and we barely had anything in the way of wind - just a little breeze about 15mph last evening around 9pm. This was a total joke ! A system that close with 70mph sustained winds would've produced at least sustained winds in the 25 to 35mph category in north Charleston. This system was more than likely about 55mph, not 70mph, ragardless what anybody (including NHC) was saying. I just can't buy that 70mph stuff.
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#3511 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 01, 2006 5:54 am

kenl01 wrote:I doubt Ernesto was anything near 70mph.

I just do not buy it. Yesterday this system passed about 55 miles east of here, and we barely had anything in the way of wind - just a little breeze about 15mph last evening around 9pm. This was a total joke ! A system that close with 70mph sustained winds would've produced at least sustained winds in the 25 to 35mph category in north Charleston. This system was more than likely about 55mph, not 70mph, ragardless what anybody (including NHC) was saying. I just can't buy that 70mph stuff.


Recon provided all the data to support a 70 mph storm.And a case can be made that maybe it was a hurricane for a few hours when the pressure falled to 988 mbs.It's possible that in post analysis they upgrade the landfall to a 75 mph cane.
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#3512 Postby Thunder44 » Fri Sep 01, 2006 6:07 am

kenl01 wrote:I doubt Ernesto was anything near 70mph.

I just do not buy it. Yesterday this system passed about 55 miles east of here, and we barely had anything in the way of wind - just a little breeze about 15mph last evening around 9pm. This was a total joke ! A system that close with 70mph sustained winds would've produced at least sustained winds in the 25 to 35mph category in north Charleston. This system was more than likely about 55mph, not 70mph, ragardless what anybody (including NHC) was saying. I just can't buy that 70mph stuff.


70mph winds are MAXIMUM sustained winds, not minumum. And the strongest winds where really occuring S and East of the center and in a small area too. So really nobody should expected to get the maximun anywhere, just prepare for it.
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#3513 Postby kenl01 » Fri Sep 01, 2006 6:16 am

But any system passing that close to this area should have produced much higher gusts last evening. 55mph sustained is more like it.
It must have had a very weak western side. I'm surprised how weak Ernesto really was on his western side. Sorry, I just cannot buy anything anymore concerning the maximum sustained winds these days. Too many hurricanes last year did the same thing, weaken dramatically before landfall. Not one hurricane lived up to its expectations at landfall last year as far as sustained winds were concerned.

Well, it's Sept.1 and not any hurricanes out there. What a weak season.

Next please...........
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#3514 Postby Dionne » Fri Sep 01, 2006 6:21 am

Ernesto made landfall at 11:30 Pm last night at Long Beach, NC. Winds were in the 55 to 65 mph range with some areas reporting gusts at 70 mph. Later today I'm sure the media will show us damage that looks similar to a minimal hurricane.
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#3515 Postby NC George » Fri Sep 01, 2006 7:08 am

Well, Kenl01, 70 mph winds have been confirmed with ground reports of 70 mph winds near Wilmington, NC. So Earnesto was exactly as advertised. Several reports of 60+ winds in eastern NC.
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#3516 Postby kenl01 » Fri Sep 01, 2006 7:10 am

Was that sustained, or just gusts ?

Even so, it was not a hurricane.............. :wink:
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#3517 Postby westmoon » Fri Sep 01, 2006 8:08 am

000
WTNT35 KNHC 011145
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 31A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
800 AM EDT FRI SEP 01 2006

...ERNESTO STILL PRODUCING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINS...

AT 8 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM SURF CITY
SOUTHWARD HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF SURF CITY
NORTH CAROLINA TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND
ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC
COAST AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AREA DUE TO A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT NORTH OF ERNESTO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED INLAND NEAR LATITUDE 35.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.6 WEST. THIS
POSITION IS JUST EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ROCKY MOUNT NORTH CAROLINA AND
ABOUT 100 MILES...160 KM...SOUTHWEST OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA.

ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. A
CONTINUED NORTHWARD MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE
CENTER FARTHER INLAND OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS MORNING AND
OVER EASTERN VIRGINIA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...80
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185
KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST FROM THE CENTER.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT
990 MB...29.23 INCHES.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES...INCLUDING THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS OF UP TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 3 TO 5 INCHES IS POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE
FLOW WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND
SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA THROUGH THIS MORNING.

REPEATING THE 800 AM EDT POSITION...35.8 N...77.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM EDT.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA
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#3518 Postby Brent » Fri Sep 01, 2006 9:32 am

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 01 2006

...ERNESTO BECOMES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...

AT 11 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM CURRITUCK
BEACH LIGHT SOUTHWARD INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. GALE WARNINGS ARE NOW EFFECT FOR THE
ATLANTIC COAST AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SURF CITY NORTH
CAROLINA NORTHWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS. SEE PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.6 WEST OR ABOUT
80 MILES...130 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES...INCLUDING THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...FROM VIRGINIA
NORTHWARD THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS OF UP
TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL 2 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE RAINS.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA THROUGH TODAY.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...36.4 N...77.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB.

THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL
PREDICTION CENTER...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT4 AND WMO HEADER WTNT35
KWNH...BEGINNING AT 5 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
1500 UTC FRI SEP 01 2006

AT 11 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM CURRITUCK
BEACH LIGHT SOUTHWARD INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. GALE WARNINGS ARE NOW EFFECT FOR THE
ATLANTIC COAST AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SURF CITY NORTH
CAROLINA NORTHWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS. SEE PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.4N 77.6W AT 01/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 130SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.4N 77.6W AT 01/1500Z
AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.8N 77.6W

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 38.0N 77.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 40.0N 78.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 41.5N 78.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.4N 77.6W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL
PREDICTION CENTER...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT5 AND WMO HEADER WTNT35
KWNH...BEGINNING AT 5 PM EDT.


$$
FORECASTER AVILA

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 01 2006

RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT ERNESTO HAS WEAKENED
AND IS NOW A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO AND A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
THE NORTH IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS WELL TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT
FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE COAST. SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ABOUT
12 KNOTS AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
IT SHOULD THEN BECOME ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM. THIS WILL BE
THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE ON ERNESTO.
FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES
ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER TCPAT5 AND WMO HEADER WTNT35 KWNH...BEGINNING AT 5 PM EDT.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/1500Z 36.4N 77.6W 30 KT
12HR VT 02/0000Z 38.0N 77.5W 30 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 02/1200Z 40.0N 78.0W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 03/0000Z 41.5N 78.5W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 03/1200Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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#3519 Postby NFLDART » Fri Sep 01, 2006 2:05 pm

So long Ernie
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#3520 Postby senorpepr » Fri Sep 01, 2006 5:59 pm

PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 33 FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD AL052006
5 PM EDT FRI SEP 01 2006

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION GRADUALLY LOSING TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS...MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC...

FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA. FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF EASTERN MARYLAND AND EASTERN VIRGINIA. COASTAL FLOOD
WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN VIRGINIA...THE
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...AND SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MARYLAND. FLASH
FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA...VIRGINIA...EASTERN WEST
VIRGINIA...MARYLAND...DELAWARE...NEW JERSEY...PENNSYLVANIA...AND
NEW YORK. HIGH WIND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY. WIND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF VIRGINIA...THE DISTRICT OF
COLUMBIA...MARYLAND...DELAWARE...AND NEW JERSEY.

AT 5 PM EDT...21Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.2 NORTH...AND LONGITUDE 77.1 WEST OR 25
MILES TO THE SOUTHEAST OF RICHMOND VIRGINIA.

ERNESTO HAS SLOWED ITS FORWARD MOTION OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS
AND IS NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH. A GENERAL NORTHWARD
MOTION AT THIS SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB OR 29.47 INCHES.

SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN INCHES THRU 4 PM EDT

...FLORIDA...

ROCK ISLAND 6.74
IMMOKALEE 5.96
MOORE HAVEN 4.74
KISSIMMEE 4.28
LEHIGH ACRES 4.16
LAKE WALES 3.85
OCHOPEE 3.78

...SOUTH CAROLINA...

MT PLEASANT 6.65
MYRTLE BEACH 6.20
MCCLELLANVILLE 5.84
DANIEL ISLAND 4.50
SURFSIDE BEACH 4.05
CONWAY MARINA 4.00

...NORTH CAROLINA...

GRIFTON 9.85
CAPE FEAR RIVER 9.71
WILMINGTON 9.58
KINSTON 9.57
SNOW HILL 8.40
NEW RIVER NCAS 8.06
WALLACE 8.00
TRANTERS CREEK 7.57
LONGWOOD 7.23
GREENVILLE 7.13
RICHLANDS 7.06

...VIRGINIA...

WITTS ORCHARD 6.64
BACK BAY 6.43
ORISKANY 6.19
CONCORD 5.89
SNOW CREEK 5.68
GRAYSON HIGHLAND 4.72
COPPER HILL 4.36
ROCKY MOUNT 4.29
NORFOLK INTL ARPT 4.20

...WEST VIRGINIA...

ELLISON RIDGE 3.20
RIPLEY 2.50
SPENCER 2.48
RACINE 2.43
TORNADO 2.12

...MARYLAND...

CAROLINE 1.68
RIVERDALE 1.12

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM
TOTALS OF 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...37.2 NORTH...77.1
WEST...MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH...MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS AT 35 MPH...MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO WILL BE ISSUED BY
THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER AT 11 PM EDT. REFER TO
YOUR LOCAL FORECAST OFFICE FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS
SYSTEM.

TRIMARCO

FORECAST POSITIONS

INITIAL 01/2100Z 37.2N 77.1W
12HR VT 02/0600Z 38.6N 77.0W
24HR VT 02/1800Z 40.5N 77.8W
36HR VT 03/0600Z 42.6N 78.4W
48HR VT 03/1800Z 44.7N 77.6W
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