Tropical Depression John in EPAC

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Wow John is a mini hurricane!!!


http://tinyurl.com/hlacf


John is a mini cyclone...Looks like a hurricane. I tryed to find out how to make this link small. But will need to keep looking.


*edited by southerngale to shorten the link

[Cyclenall]

Get a Mod to edit your post to make the link smaller Matt.

Anyways, I have to agree with how small this tropical cyclone really is. That is one of the smallest I have ever seen in my life!! It looks like it's undergoing RI currently based on the loops. Should be a hurricane either right now or very soon. John is starting to amaze....

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Ok

[HurricaneBill]

John appears to be a midget cyclone. Maybe we should call him "Johnny".

[Cyclenall]

Very first % chance that Tropical Storm John will become a:

Tropical Depression: 100%
Tropical Storm: 100%
Hurricane: 97% (could be one right now)
Category 2 Hurricane: 75%
Category 3 Hurricane: 65%
Category 4 Hurricane: 35%
Category 5 Hurricane: 2%

[P.K.]

60kts.

TROPICAL STORM JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006
200 AM PDT TUE AUG 29 2006

THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF JOHN CONTINUES TO IMPROVE WITH AN
EXPANDING CDO OVER THE CENTER. IN FACT...A 0207 UTC SSMIS MICROWAVE
OVERPASS DETECTED A SMALL EYE FEATURE. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND ARE NOW 55 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 45
KT FROM AFWA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 60 KT...A LITTLE
HIGHER THAN THE DVORAK ESTIMATES DUE TO THE EYE FEATURE SEEN IN THE
MICROWAVE IMAGERY. JOHN APPEARS TO BE GOING THROUGH A PERIOD OF
RAPID INTENSIFICATION AND THE FUTURE ENVIRONMENT LOOKS VERY
FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER STRENGTHENING. ALL AVAILABLE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE SHOWS JOHN BECOMING A MAJOR HURRICANE IN ABOUT 48-60
HOURS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GUIDANCE CLOSELY AND
WAS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY UPWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. LATE IN
THE FORECAST...AS JOHN APPROACHES COOLER WATERS...WEAKENING IS
INDICATED BUT AT A SLOWER RATE THAN THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 290/06. JOHN IS FORECAST
CONTINUE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING AROUND THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE EXPECTED TO
BUILD OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THERE IS A LITTLE LESS SPREAD IN THE
TRACK GUIDANCE FOR THIS CYCLE. THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFDL MODEL
SHIFTED WESTWARD...BUT IT REMAINS ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODEL ENVELOPE...WHILE THE GFS REMAINS ON THE LEFT. THE
FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IT CONTINUES
TO SHOW JOHN PARALLELING THE COAST OF MEXICO FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK REMAINS JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL
CONSENSUS AND CLOSE TO THE GFDL AND FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE.

THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO. AS JOHN STRENGTHENS THE TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WIND RADII ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE. THE WATCH AREA MAY NEED
TO BE EXPANDED WESTWARD LATER TODAY AND INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST
OF MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JOHN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/0900Z 13.9N 97.8W 60 KT
12HR VT 29/1800Z 14.2N 98.9W 75 KT
24HR VT 30/0600Z 14.8N 100.5W 85 KT
36HR VT 30/1800Z 15.7N 102.4W 95 KT
48HR VT 31/0600Z 16.9N 104.4W 105 KT
72HR VT 01/0600Z 19.5N 108.3W 100 KT
96HR VT 02/0600Z 21.0N 111.5W 85 KT
120HR VT 03/0600Z 21.5N 115.0W 65 KT

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/STEWART

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It has been 60 knots for 3 hours. Going by t numbers is not always the way to go.

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE JOHN (EP112006) ON 20060829 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060829 1200 060830 0000 060830 1200 060831 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.1N 98.5W 15.0N 100.2W 15.8N 101.9W 16.6N 104.0W
BAMM 14.1N 98.5W 15.0N 100.2W 15.8N 102.0W 16.8N 104.3W
LBAR 14.1N 98.5W 14.8N 100.0W 16.1N 102.1W 17.5N 104.3W
SHIP 70KTS 83KTS 93KTS 99KTS
DSHP 70KTS 83KTS 93KTS 99KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060831 1200 060901 1200 060902 1200 060903 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.7N 106.4W 20.1N 111.4W 21.6N 116.1W 22.5N 120.6W
BAMM 17.9N 106.9W 20.2N 112.2W 21.1N 117.0W 21.2N 120.8W
LBAR 19.1N 106.5W 22.9N 109.7W 25.1N 111.1W 26.3N 111.8W
SHIP 103KTS 106KTS 99KTS 86KTS
DSHP 103KTS 106KTS 99KTS 86KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.1N LONCUR = 98.5W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 13.7N LONM12 = 97.0W DIRM12 = 285DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 13.1N LONM24 = 95.7W
WNDCUR = 70KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 55KT
CENPRS = 983MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 80NM RD34SE = 60NM RD34SW = 60NM RD34NW = 80NM


It's now Hurricane John.

[Scorpion]

Wow, another major for the EPAC.

[Hyperstorm]

This just goes to show how rapid a small tropical cyclone with a well-defined LLC can strengthen. This became a hurricane within 24 hours of becoming a tropical depression. Definitely something to keep in mind in the future. We need a WELL-DEFINED LLC for rapid strengthening.

[cycloneye]

911
WTPZ41 KNHC 291500
TCDEP1
HURRICANE JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006
800 AM PDT TUE AUG 29 2006

JOHN HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY THIS MORNING...AND FIRST LIGHT
VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE BANDING FEATURE AND AN OBSCURED
EYE FEATURE TRYING TO DEVELOP. THESE FEATURES ARE ALSO APPARENT ON
A RECENT TRMM MICROWAVE PASS FROM 1156 UTC. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS
FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 65 KT AND 75 KT RESPECTIVELY...AND THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS A BLEND OF TWO AND IS SET AT 70 KT. JOHN IS
NOW THE SIXTH HURRICANE OF THE EAST PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON. JOHN
IS IN A CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT OF LOW SHEAR AND VERY WARM WATERS FOR
CONTINUED STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST TAKES
JOHN TO A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE IN 24 TO 36 HOURS...WHICH FOLLOWS
CLOSELY WITH THE SHIPS...GFDL...AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE...AS WELL AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. IN THE LATER
PERIODS...THE GFDL MODEL WEAKENS JOHN SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO THE
PROXIMITY OF IT'S TRACK FORECAST TO LAND. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST MAINTAINS THE HURRICANE OVER WATER THROUGH FIVE DAYS AND
GRADUALLY WEAKENS THE CYCLONE IN DAYS 4 AND 5 AS A RESULT OF COOLER
WATERS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/8...SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN BEFORE. JOHN IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 4
DAYS WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE HURRICANE IS
FORECAST TO BE STEERED ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-
TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. MOST OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...HOWEVER
THE GFDL MODEL ANTICIPATES THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE TO BE
FURTHER TO THE EAST ALLOWING THE HURRICANE TO MOVE CLOSER TO THE
WEST COAST OF MEXICO AND EVENTUALLY OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST STAYS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AS WELL
AS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

AS A RESULT OF THE CONTINUED STRENGTHENING OF JOHN...THE WIND RADII
HAVE BEEN EXPANDED. THIS HAS PROMPTED THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO TO
ADJUST THE WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/1500Z 14.3N 99.0W 70 KT
12HR VT 30/0000Z 14.8N 100.4W 85 KT
24HR VT 30/1200Z 15.6N 102.2W 95 KT
36HR VT 31/0000Z 16.7N 104.3W 105 KT
48HR VT 31/1200Z 18.2N 106.2W 105 KT
72HR VT 01/1200Z 20.5N 110.0W 100 KT
96HR VT 02/1200Z 21.0N 112.5W 85 KT
120HR VT 03/1200Z 21.5N 115.5W 65 KT

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/PASCH

[CrazyC83]

This just goes to show how rapid a small tropical cyclone with a well-defined LLC can strengthen. This became a hurricane within 24 hours of becoming a tropical depression. Definitely something to keep in mind in the future. We need a WELL-DEFINED LLC for rapid strengthening.

Yep, plus it has some really good water to support such.

[cycloneye]

It has a tiny eye.Remember Wilma with that small 2 mile eye?

[cycloneye]

254
WTPZ31 KNHC 291752
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JOHN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006
1100 AM PDT TUE AUG 29 2006

...JOHN CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO
FROM ACAPULCO WESTWARD TO LAZARO CARDENAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF ACAPULCO
EASTWARD TO LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA...AND FROM WEST OF LAZARO CARDENAS
WESTWARD TO MANZANILLO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM PDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.4 WEST OR ABOUT 170 MILES...
275 KM...SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO.

JOHN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH...145 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. JOHN IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE...AND JOHN COULD BECOME A CATEGORY
THREE HURRICANE BY WEDNESDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90
MILES...150 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 977 MB...28.64 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS UP TO
8 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AND WARNING AREA. THESE RAINS COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER AREAS OF
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM PDT POSITION...14.3 N...99.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/PASCH

[Cyclenall]

I see a very tiny eye that is a pin-hole. If you look at a long loop, you can see that is indeed a eye and not something else. Very powerful!!

[cycloneye]

If John gets the (perfect conditions) I see this cane reaching cat 5 status.

[WmE]

If John gets the (perfect conditions) I see this cane reaching cat 5 status.

As of now I don't expect something stronger than a weak Category 4 storm. I just can't see it reaching Cat 5.

[Jim Cantore]

It has a tiny eye.Remember Wilma with that small 2 mile eye?

IR isn't nearly as impressive, I was thinking rapid deepening until I saw that.

[CrazyC83]

It has a tiny eye.Remember Wilma with that small 2 mile eye?

IR isn't nearly as impressive, I was thinking rapid deepening until I saw that.

I can see Category 3 by this evening easily...but the conditions aren't as favorable as with Wilma. But who knows!

[bombarderoazul]

Cat 2 by tonight and by tomorrow 3 or maybe even 4.