Tropical Depression John in EPAC

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cycloneye
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#121 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 30, 2006 4:51 pm

NetZeroZeus wrote:Hmm...this doesn't look good for me. It looks like we are for sure going to get at least tropical storm force winds here in Puerto Vallarta, and perhaps 50KT winds, which won't be good for power lines I imagine.


Be safe over there.Hopefully the eye does not go more right.
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#122 Postby wxmann_91 » Wed Aug 30, 2006 5:26 pm

Josephine96 wrote:I don't like having a storm this bad with my name.. :lol:Prayers for Mexico and extreme southern California..


We're fine here... it's the southern Baja that needs to watch out, and Acapulco area.
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#123 Postby NetZeroZeus » Wed Aug 30, 2006 5:56 pm

cycloneye wrote:
NetZeroZeus wrote:Hmm...this doesn't look good for me. It looks like we are for sure going to get at least tropical storm force winds here in Puerto Vallarta, and perhaps 50KT winds, which won't be good for power lines I imagine.


Be safe over there.Hopefully the eye does not go more right.


Thanks, and I'm hoping it doesn't go right as well, in fact I wish it would just head due west right now and get out of everyone's hair.
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#124 Postby bahamaswx » Wed Aug 30, 2006 6:28 pm

Glad he's not getting any closer to the coast now. Hopefully he'll be out of there soon. ;)
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#125 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 30, 2006 6:39 pm

886
WTPZ31 KNHC 302336
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JOHN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006
500 PM PDT WED AUG 30 2006

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE JOHN CONTINUES TO PARALLEL THE SOUTHWEST
COAST OF MEXICO...STRONG RAINBANDS APPROACHING MANZANILLO...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LAZARO CARDENAS WESTWARD
TO CABO CORRIENTES. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA TO LAZARO
CARDENAS...AND FOR THE ISLAS MARIAS. A HURRICANE WATCH IS ALSO IN
EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD ON THE
EAST COAST....AND FROM SANTE FE SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...
INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM ACAPULCO TO LAZARO
CARDENAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF CABO
CORRIENTES TO MAZATLAN. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM PDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.1 WEST OR ABOUT 100 MILES
...160 KM...SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND ABOUT 120 MILES
...195 KM...WEST OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO.

JOHN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26
KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE MEXICAN COAST. HOWEVER ONLY A SLIGHT DEVIATION OF
THE TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER ONSHORE WITHIN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. JOHN IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 948 MB...27.99 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS UP TO
18 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO
WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS. THESE AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER OF THE
HURRICANE.

REPEATING THE 500 PM PDT POSITION...17.7 N...104.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN

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#126 Postby CentralFlGal » Wed Aug 30, 2006 8:21 pm

University of Colima webcam, approx 30 miles inland (eye should be parallel with this area in less than 5 hours):

http://www.ucol.mx/volcan/imagen.htm
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#127 Postby NetZeroZeus » Wed Aug 30, 2006 9:07 pm

Is it just me or does it look weaker on IR?
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#128 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 30, 2006 9:48 pm

516
WTPZ41 KNHC 310245
TCDEP1
HURRICANE JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006
800 PM PDT WED AUG 30 2006

DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE ASSOCIATED
WITH JOHN HAS DEGRADED SLIGHTLY. THE EYE HAS ONCE AGAIN BECOME
OBSCURED AND THE OVERALL SHAPE OF THE CLOUD CANOPY HAS BECOME
SOMEWHAT ELONGATED. THIS MAY BE DUE TO AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT
CYCLE THAT HAS CAUSED A FLUCTUATION IN INTENSITY. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS LOWERED SLIGHTLY TO 110 KT BASED ON THE TRENDS IN
SATELLITE APPEARANCE. STILL...JOHN REMAINS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY
THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS QUITE PROBLEMATIC...GIVEN THE CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO LAND AND THE CURRENT EYEWALL REPLACEMENT.
ADDITIONALLY...SOUTHERLY SHEAR APPEARS TO BE INCREASING AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE HAS FORMED EAST OF JOHN OVER SOUTHERN
MEXICO. SINCE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK REMAINS OFFSHORE AND
OVER VERY WARM WATERS...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST UNDER
THE ASSUMPTION THAT THE CURRENT EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE WILL
COMPLETE. INDEED...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR JOHN TO BE A CATEGORY
FOUR HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE BAJA PENINSULA. THEREAFTER...
JOHN WILL ENCOUNTER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS WEST OF BAJA...
RESULTING IN WEAKENING.

JOHN HAS BEEN MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300/14...DURING THE LAST 6 TO
12 HOURS. THIS IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON JOHN CONTINUING
WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTWARD...EFFECTIVELY PARALLELING THE COAST
OF MEXICO...AS IT ROUNDS THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MIDDLE- TO
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. IN FACT...THE GFDL HAS
SHIFTED A LITTLE LEFT...OR WEST...IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
OTHER DYNAMICAL MODELS...AND NO LONGER SHOWS LANDFALL ALONG THE
COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS. BEYOND 48 HOURS...THE
GLOBAL MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE BASED ON THEIR DIFFERING DEPICTIONS
OF AN UPPER TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. MOST
OF THE MODELS...SAVE THE GFDL...LIFT THIS TROUGH NORTHEASTWARD
ALLOWING A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD NORTH OF JOHN...RESULTING IN
THE CYCLONE TURNING TOWARD THE WEST. THE GFDL KEEPS THE TROUGH IN
PLACE ALLOWING JOHN TO CONTINUE NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. WHILE THIS SOLUTION CANNOT BE COMPLETELY
DISCREDITED...ALL OF THE REMAINING DYNAMICAL MODELS TURN THE
CYCLONE WESTWARD AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
UNFORTUNATELY...THIS TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS FORECAST TO OCCUR VERY
CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. THIS MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY...EVEN IF THE CYCLONE DOES NOT MAKE
LANDFALL ON THE PENINSULA. AS A RESULT...A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW
NEEDED FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. ACCORDINGLY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS MADE SEVERAL CHANGES TO THE WATCHES
AND WARNINGS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 31/0300Z 18.1N 104.5W 110 KT
12HR VT 31/1200Z 19.3N 105.9W 115 KT
24HR VT 01/0000Z 21.3N 107.2W 115 KT
36HR VT 01/1200Z 22.4N 108.6W 115 KT
48HR VT 02/0000Z 23.0N 109.8W 110 KT
72HR VT 03/0000Z 23.8N 112.3W 100 KT
96HR VT 04/0000Z 24.0N 116.5W 75 KT
120HR VT 05/0000Z 24.0N 121.0W 55 KT

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN
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#129 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 30, 2006 9:51 pm

244
WTPZ21 KNHC 310246
TCMEP1
HURRICANE JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006
0300 UTC THU AUG 31 2006

AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CANCELED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM ACAPULCO TO LAZARO CARDENAS. AT 8 PM
PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CANCELED THE
HURRICANE WATCH FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA TO LAZARO CARDENAS.

AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE
HURRICANE WARNING NORTHWARD FROM CABO CORRIENTES TO SAN BLAS. A
HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM LAZARO CARDENAS TO SAN
BLAS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM SAN BLAS TO
MAZATLAN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE
HURRICANE WATCH WITH A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...AND FROM SANTA
FE SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST.

AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR ISLAS MARIAS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 104.5W AT 31/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 316 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 60SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 140SE 120SW 140NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 104.5W AT 31/0300Z
AT 31/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 104.1W

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 19.3N 105.9W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 75SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 21.3N 107.2W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 75SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 22.4N 108.6W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 75SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 23.0N 109.8W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 23.8N 112.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 24.0N 116.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 24.0N 121.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.1N 104.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN
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#130 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 30, 2006 9:56 pm

Image

This track has the eye passing just west of Cabo San Lucas with the eyeeall over them.
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#131 Postby Brent » Wed Aug 30, 2006 10:01 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE JOHN ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006
800 PM PDT WED AUG 30 2006

...MAJOR HURRICANE JOHN CONTINUES TO PARALLEL THE COAST OF
MEXICO...STRONG RAINBANDS AFFECTING THE COASTAL STATES OF MICHOACAN
AND COLIMA...

AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE
HURRICANE WARNING NORTHWARD FROM CABO CORRIENTES TO SAN BLAS. A
HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM LAZARO CARDENAS TO SAN
BLAS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR ISLAS MARIAS.

AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE
HURRICANE WATCH WITH A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...AND FROM SANTA
FE SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST.

AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM SAN BLAS TO
MAZATLAN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CANCELED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM ACAPULCO TO LAZARO CARDENAS. AT 8 PM
PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CANCELED THE
HURRICANE WATCH FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA TO LAZARO CARDENAS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM PDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.5 WEST OR ABOUT 65 MILES...
100 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND ABOUT 175 MILES...
285 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO.

JOHN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK...JOHN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE THE MEXICAN
COAST. HOWEVER...ONLY A SMALL DEVIATION IN THE TRACK COULD BRING
THE CENTER ONSHORE WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. ALTHOUGH THE
CENTER OF JOHN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OFFSHORE...WINDS TO HURRICANE
FORCE ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. JOHN REMAINS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 950 MB...28.05 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS UP TO
18 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE MEXICAN WEST COAST WITHIN THE
WARNING AREAS. THESE AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER OF THE
HURRICANE.

REPEATING THE 800 PM PDT POSITION...18.1 N...104.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200
AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN
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#132 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Aug 30, 2006 10:11 pm

Right now I'd give it a 50% chance of a landfall somewhere.
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#133 Postby NetZeroZeus » Thu Aug 31, 2006 7:04 am

I'm sitting here waiting, so far I haven't seen any effects except for a rain sprinkle 3 hours ago...and the winds are as calm as they can be, even though under satellite IR I seem to be under convection, and that thing doesnt even look like a hurricane anymore, it's all elongated.
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#134 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 31, 2006 7:05 am

BULLETIN
HURRICANE JOHN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006
500 AM PDT THU AUG 31 2006

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE JOHN NEAR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF
MAINLAND MEXICO FROM LAZARO CARDENAS TO SAN BLAS...AND FOR ISLAS
MARIAS.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...AND FROM SANTA
FE SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IN THESE AREAS SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN
COMPLETED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN
MEXICO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 AM PDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.8 WEST OR ABOUT 95 MILES...
150 KM...WEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND ABOUT 100 MILES...155 KM...
SOUTH OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO.

JOHN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...JOHN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE THE
PACIFIC COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO. HOWEVER...ONLY A SMALL DEVIATION
IN THE TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER ONSHORE WITHIN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA. ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF JOHN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
OFFSHORE...WINDS TO HURRICANE FORCE ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. JOHN IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 950 MB...28.05 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS UP TO
18 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE MEXICAN WEST COAST WITHIN THE
WARNING AREAS. THESE AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER OF THE
HURRICANE.

REPEATING THE 500 AM PDT POSITION...19.0 N...105.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/PASCH

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NetZeroZeus
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#135 Postby NetZeroZeus » Thu Aug 31, 2006 8:30 am

Bump, I'm experiencing a few leaves being rustled right now, this is the most pathetic hurricane I've seen so far, we'll see what happens I guess. Anyone have an opinion on whether it's weakened or not? Sure looks like it to me here.
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shawn67
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#136 Postby shawn67 » Thu Aug 31, 2006 9:15 am

NetZeroZeus wrote:Bump, I'm experiencing a few leaves being rustled right now, this is the most pathetic hurricane I've seen so far, we'll see what happens I guess. Anyone have an opinion on whether it's weakened or not? Sure looks like it to me here.


Im guessing it has to do with land interaction and being cut off somewhat from a moisture supply on the east side of the storm. Once John gets north of Puerto Vallarta it may have a chance to better maintain it's composure or strengthen.
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cycloneye
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#137 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 31, 2006 9:49 am

400
WTPZ31 KNHC 311446
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JOHN ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006
800 AM PDT THU AUG 31 2006

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE JOHN NEAR THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO...

AT 8 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED
THE HURRICANE WARNING EAST OF MANZANILLO. A HURRICANE WARNING IS
NOW IN EFFECT FROM MANZANILLO TO SAN BLAS...INCLUDING THE ISLAS
MARIAS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IN THESE AREAS
SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...AND FROM SANTA
FE SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN
MEXICO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM PDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.5 WEST OR ABOUT 150 MILES
...240 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND ABOUT 80 MILES
...130 KM...SOUTHWEST OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO.

JOHN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THIS TRACK...JOHN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE THE PACIFIC
COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO. ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF JOHN IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN OFFSHORE...WINDS TO HURRICANE FORCE ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. JOHN IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. A UNITED STATES AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE JOHN LATER TODAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 950 MB...28.05 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS UP TO
18 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE MEXICAN WEST COAST WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA AS WELL AS OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA. THESE
AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES
OVER AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER OF THE
HURRICANE.

REPEATING THE 800 AM PDT POSITION...19.5 N...106.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200
PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/PASCH

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cycloneye
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#138 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 31, 2006 9:52 am

Image
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NetZeroZeus
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#139 Postby NetZeroZeus » Thu Aug 31, 2006 10:20 am

This feels weird, I'm under a hurricane warning yet it's completely calm outside, birds are chirping and yes it's overcast, but no rain. Unless I don't see SOMETHING in 6 hours, I am going to be mad...I mean really, cloudy skies is what made me not have to go to work today?
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NetZeroZeus
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#140 Postby NetZeroZeus » Thu Aug 31, 2006 11:14 am

I wonder why a wave in the East Atlantic is getting more attention than a land threatening major hurricane...hmm.
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