Tropical Depression John in EPAC

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Sanibel
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#161 Postby Sanibel » Fri Sep 01, 2006 3:47 pm

Guess Brent was right after all. This will hit the eastern tip of Baja sparing Cabo San Lucas the worst. It should smash Cabo Pulmo with full NE quadrant intensity in a few hours.
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#162 Postby WindRunner » Fri Sep 01, 2006 4:02 pm

WTPZ21 KNHC 012033
TCMEP1
HURRICANE JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006
2100 UTC FRI SEP 01 2006

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA FROM SAN EVERISTO SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...AND FROM
BAHIA MAGDALENA SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS SOUTHWARD TO BAHIA
MAGDALENA ON THE WEST COAST...AND NORTHWARD FROM SAN EVERISTO
TO LORETO ON THE EAST COAST. THESE WARNINGS MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED
NORTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST LATER TONIGHT.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE WEST COAST OF
THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA MAGDALENA TO PUNTA ABREOJOS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM LORETO NORTHWARD TO MULEGE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 109.0W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 958 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 75NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 90SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 109.0W AT 01/2100Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 108.9W

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 23.6N 109.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 24.7N 111.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 25.6N 112.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 45SE 25SW 25NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 26.5N 113.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 45SE 25SW 25NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 28.3N 116.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 45SE 25SW 25NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 29.0N 119.0W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 29.0N 122.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.8N 109.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA
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#163 Postby P.K. » Fri Sep 01, 2006 4:31 pm

Image
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#164 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Fri Sep 01, 2006 4:39 pm

Wow this thing is very compact...With a very small eye, also with the radar showing a impressive eye. I would say closer to 110 knots.
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#165 Postby bombarderoazul » Fri Sep 01, 2006 4:39 pm

Wow! that's a small cyclone. How big is he compared to tropical cyclone tracy.
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#166 Postby Droop12 » Fri Sep 01, 2006 4:46 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Wow this thing is very compact...With a very small eye, also with the radar showing a impressive eye. I would say closer to 110 knots.

Not even close or so says recon. You cant just assume that since the eyes looks impressive on radar its stronger than it is.
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#167 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Fri Sep 01, 2006 4:47 pm

When was the last time the recon was in there? This morning if I'm right.
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#168 Postby clfenwi » Fri Sep 01, 2006 4:52 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:When was the last time the recon was in there? This morning if I'm right.


Passed through the northeast quadrant at 1630-1700Z (12:30,1:00 PM EDT)
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#169 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 01, 2006 4:53 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:When was the last time the recon was in there? This morning if I'm right.


Early afternoon they were there.
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#170 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Fri Sep 01, 2006 4:58 pm

It has a red cdo, and the storm is very compact. But you learn every day new things about tropical cyclones.
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#171 Postby Sanibel » Fri Sep 01, 2006 5:09 pm

Cabo Pulmo on the east tip of Baja should take a direct hit.
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#172 Postby P.K. » Fri Sep 01, 2006 5:13 pm

bombarderoazul wrote:Wow! that's a small cyclone. How big is he compared to tropical cyclone tracy.


34kts (ten minute) winds had a radius of about 40km at landfall with STC Tracy http://www.ntlib.nt.gov.au/tracy/advanced/Met/Stats.html. Although I have also seen 50km quoted. http://www.bom.gov.au/lam/climate/levelthree/c20thc/cyclone4.htm If we take the NE quad then in this case it is about 140km, SE quad 110km, SW and NW quads 55km.
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#173 Postby AZRainman » Fri Sep 01, 2006 5:30 pm

ONCE AGAIN MY FORECAST HINGES ON THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTERS
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FOR HURRICANE JOHN. AS OF 18Z (11 AM
MST)...THE CENTER OF JOHN WAS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 22.3 N LAT;
109.0 W LONG. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS JOHN TURNING TO THE
NORTHWEST AND JUST SKIRTING PAST THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TREK JUST OFFSHORE OF
THE WESTERN COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND REACH A POSITION ABOUT
160 MILES SOUTH OF THE BAJA SPUR BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THEREAFTER
JOHN SHOULD TAKE A MORE WESTERLY TRACK INTO THE COOLER WATERS OF THE
PACIFIC WHERE IT WILL DECREASE IN INTENSITY. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FOR
JOHN COINCIDES WITH THE MAJORITY OF PATHS FROM VARIOUS COMPUTER
MODELS. HOWEVER...A FEW OF THE MODELS WANT TO TURN THE STORM MORE TO
THE NORTH ONCE IT REACHES THE BAJA SPUR AREA. ONE PARTICULAR MODEL
THAT HAS SUCH A SOLUTION IS THE GFS. HOWEVER...THE NAM SOLUTION IS
VASTLY DIFFERENT. FOR EXAMPLE...BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING THE GFS
SOLUTION HAS THE CENTER NORTHEAST OF THE BAJA SPUR OVER THE CENTRAL
BAJA PENINSULA...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME THE NAM HAS THE STORM ABOUT
330 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE BAJA SPUR. THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THESE
TWO SOLUTIONS IS ABOUT 400 MILES. WITH SUCH DISCREPANCIES THE BEST
COURSE OF ACTION IS TO MAINTAIN THE STATUS QUO FOR THE TIME BEING.
THIS WAS ALSO THE CONSENSUS OF THE SURROUNDING ARIZONA OFFICES. THE
MIDNIGHT SHIFT ADJUSTED POPS UPWARD FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK INTO THE HIGHER END OF THE CHANCE CATEGORY OR EVEN LOWER END OF
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WITH THE
OFFICIAL TRACK TAKING THE STORM JUST SOUTH OF THE SPUR IT IS
EXPECTED THAT A SURGE OF MOISTURE COULD WORK ITS WAY NORTHWARD
RESULTING IN AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. HOWEVER...
KEEP IN MIND THAT WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY DIRECT AFFECTS FROM THE
HURRICANE (I.E. STRONG WINDS, ETC)...SINCE IT WILL BE MUCH TOO FAR
AWAY. SINCE THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY INVOLVED ONCE THE SYSTEM
REACHES THE BAJA SPUR IT IS BEST TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. THESE CAN BE
ACCESSED THROUGH OUR HOME PAGE AT http://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
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#174 Postby benny » Fri Sep 01, 2006 6:15 pm

john and ernesto were pain in the asses to forecast.. but ernesto was worse. funny that earlier john was to graze the sw tip of baja.. now looks like the se tip or maybe offshore...
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#175 Postby P.K. » Fri Sep 01, 2006 6:53 pm

HURRICANE JOHN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 18A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006
500 PM PDT FRI SEP 01 2006

...EYE OF HURRICANE JOHN NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTHEAST OF
CABO SAN LUCAS...EYEWALL MOVING ONTO THE COAST...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA FROM SAN EVERISTO SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...AND FROM
BAHIA MAGDALENA SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS SOUTHWARD TO BAHIA
MAGDALENA ON THE WEST COAST...AND NORTHWARD FROM SAN EVERISTO
TO LORETO ON THE EAST COAST. THESE WARNINGS MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED
NORTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST LATER TONIGHT.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE WEST COAST OF
THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA MAGDALENA TO PUNTA ABREOJOS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM LORETO NORTHWARD TO MULEGE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM PDT...0000Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED BY
SATELLITE AND RADAR FROM CABO SAN LUCAS NEAR LATITUDE 23.2 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 109.2 WEST. THIS POSITION IS NEAR THE EAST COAST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ABOUT 25 MILES...40 KM...EAST OF
SAN JOSE DEL CABO.

JOHN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...16 KM/HR...
AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT. ON THIS
TRACK...THE EYE OF JOHN WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER THE EAST COAST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. JOHN IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY BEFORE LANDFALL.

JOHN IS A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 958 MB...28.29 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER OF
THE HURRICANE.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM
TOTALS UP TO 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA. THE WEST COAST OF CENTRAL MEXICO COULD RECEIVE AN
ADDITIONAL 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS OF 18
INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES OVER AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

REPEATING THE 500 PM PDT POSITION...23.2 N...109.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

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#176 Postby Stephanie » Fri Sep 01, 2006 6:57 pm

I'll bet the SW corner of the US will get some beneficial, but flooding rains out of this.

That's scary to see a hurricane at that strength so close to the western United States and Mexican shorelines. :eek:

It's a strange storm, kind of like Ernesto is in the Atlantic. Nothing "normal" about these two.
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#177 Postby mtm4319 » Fri Sep 01, 2006 8:44 pm

Image

It might only make a partial eye landfall.
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#178 Postby JonathanBelles » Fri Sep 01, 2006 8:45 pm

mtm4319 wrote:It might only make a partial eye landfall.


how do you figure?
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#179 Postby mtm4319 » Fri Sep 01, 2006 8:47 pm

fact789 wrote:
mtm4319 wrote:It might only make a partial eye landfall.


how do you figure?


It's moving almost due north at the moment, judging from the NHC loop. It could be a wobble, but that's all it'd need to be to stay at least partially off the coast.
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#180 Postby Sanibel » Fri Sep 01, 2006 9:21 pm

West jog and direct hit on Cabo Pulmo right now. Refresh the radar.

John pulled right over the top of the town.
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