Tropical Depression John in EPAC

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superfly
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#181 Postby superfly » Fri Sep 01, 2006 9:25 pm

GDFL has this thing riding almost all the way up the Gulf of Cali and into Arizona.
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#182 Postby Sanibel » Fri Sep 01, 2006 9:34 pm

Cabo Pulmo is being buzzsawed by that tight eye as we speak...
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#183 Postby Brent » Fri Sep 01, 2006 9:42 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE JOHN ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006
800 PM PDT FRI SEP 01 2006

...EYE OF HURRICANE JOHN MAKES LANDFALL NEAR CABO DEL ESTE IN
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...

AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE
HURRICANE WARNINGS NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA TO MULEGE...AND ALONG THE WEST COAST TO PUNTA ABREOJOS.
A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM MULEGE SOUTHWARD ALONG
THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF
MULEGE TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA...AND FOR THE WEST COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO PUNTA EUGENIA.

AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ALSO ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE MAINLAND COAST OF MEXICO FROM ALTATA
TO GUAYMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN AND NEAR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...BAJA
CALIFORNIA....AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF JOHN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM PDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.6 WEST. THIS POSITION
IS NEAR LOS FRAILES MEXICO AND ABOUT 20 MILES...30 KM...
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF SAN JOSE DEL CABO MEXICO. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT
70 MILES...115 KM...SOUTHEAST OF LA PAZ MEXICO. THE EYE OF JOHN
MADE LANDFALL NEAR CABO DEL ESTE AROUND 7 PM PDT..0200 UTC.

JOHN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF JOHN NEAR THE
EASTERN COAST OF SOUTH BAJA CALIFORNIA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. JOHN IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

JOHN REMAINS A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 958 MB...28.29 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER OF
THE HURRICANE.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM
TOTALS UP TO 18 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE WEST COAST OF CENTRAL
MEXICO COULD RECEIVE AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN WITH
MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS OF 18 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES OVER AREAS OF
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

REPEATING THE 800 PM PDT POSITION...23.4 N...109.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200
AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

HURRICANE JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006
0300 UTC SAT SEP 02 2006

AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE
HURRICANE WARNINGS NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA TO MULEGE...AND ALONG THE WEST COAST TO PUNTA ABREOJOS.
A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM MULEGE SOUTHWARD ALONG
THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF
MULEGE TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA...AND FOR THE WEST COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO PUNTA EUGENIA.

AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ALSO ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE MAINLAND COAST OF MEXICO FROM ALTATA
TO GUAYMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN AND NEAR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...BAJA
CALIFORNIA....AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF JOHN.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 109.6W AT 02/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 958 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 75NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 90SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 109.6W AT 02/0300Z
AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 109.3W

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 24.4N 110.1W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 25.5N 110.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 26.7N 111.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 45SE 25SW 25NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 27.5N 113.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 45SE 25SW 25NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 29.0N 115.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 30.0N 117.5W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 30.5N 119.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.4N 109.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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#184 Postby AZRainman » Fri Sep 01, 2006 9:45 pm

Looks like John is going around the tip of Baja and up the Gulf of California...NHC needs to change their model prefs.

The NAM/NOGAPS is off on its projection, were as the GFS is better.

Image

Image

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
112 PM MST FRI SEP 1 2006

ONCE AGAIN MY FORECAST HINGES ON THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTERS OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FOR HURRICANE JOHN. AS OF 18Z (11 AM MST)...THE CENTER OF JOHN WAS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 22.3 N LAT; 109.0 W LONG. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS JOHN TURNING TO THE NORTHWEST AND JUST SKIRTING PAST THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TREK JUST OFFSHORE OF THE WESTERN COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND REACH A POSITION ABOUT 160 MILES SOUTH OF THE BAJA SPUR BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THEREAFTER JOHN SHOULD TAKE A MORE WESTERLY TRACK INTO THE COOLER WATERS OF THE PACIFIC WHERE IT WILL DECREASE IN INTENSITY. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FOR JOHN COINCIDES WITH THE MAJORITY OF PATHS FROM VARIOUS COMPUTER MODELS. HOWEVER...A FEW OF THE MODELS WANT TO TURN THE STORM MORE TO THE NORTH ONCE IT REACHES THE BAJA SPUR AREA. ONE PARTICULAR MODEL THAT HAS SUCH A SOLUTION IS THE GFS. HOWEVER...THE NAM SOLUTION IS VASTLY DIFFERENT. FOR EXAMPLE...BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING THE GFS SOLUTION HAS THE CENTER NORTHEAST OF THE BAJA SPUR OVER THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME THE NAM HAS THE STORM ABOUT 330 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE BAJA SPUR. THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THESE TWO SOLUTIONS IS ABOUT 400 MILES. WITH SUCH DISCREPANCIES THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS TO MAINTAIN THE STATUS QUO FOR THE TIME BEING.

http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/az/discussion.html

Maybe the NHC should talk to the Tucson NWS, since Tucson called this concern 2 days ago.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
128 PM MST TUE AUG 29 2006

MEANWHILE...HURRICANE JOHN WHICH WAS LOCATED AT APPROXIMATELY 14.3 N LAT; 99.4 W LONG AT 18Z (11 AM MST) IS FORECASTED TO MOVE NORTHWEST REACHING A POSITION NEAR 20.5 N LAT; 110.0 W LONG BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS IS ABOUT 170 MILES SOUTH OF THE VERY SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. THEREAFTER THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE MORE WEST OR WEST NORTHWEST INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS. AT THIS POINT IN TIME NOT SURE IF ANY MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SURGE NORTH UP THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
Last edited by AZRainman on Fri Sep 01, 2006 10:25 pm, edited 5 times in total.
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#185 Postby WindRunner » Fri Sep 01, 2006 9:46 pm

And we must give you credit, Brent. I believe you called the storm passing mainly to the east of Cabo earlier today, and so it is (well, for the most part).
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#186 Postby Thunder44 » Fri Sep 01, 2006 10:03 pm

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 020256
TCDEP1
HURRICANE JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006
800 PM PDT FRI SEP 01 2006

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MEXICAN RADAR DATA FROM LOS CABOS AND GUASAVE
INDICATE THAT THE 10-12 N MI WIDE EYE OF JOHN MADE LANDFALL NEAR 02Z
OVER CABO DEL ESTE IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. INFRARED IMAGERY
SHOWS THAT THE EYE IS GRADUALLY LOSING DEFINITION...BUT NOT YET
ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY DROPPING THE MAXIMUM WINDS. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS 95 KT BASED ON EARLIER AIRCRAFT DATA AND
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES UNCHANGED FROM 6 HR AGO. ONE
INTERESTING ASPECT OF THE INFRARED IMAGERY IS THAT JOHN HAS LOST
ITS CIRCULAR APPEARANCE WITH THE COLDER CLOUD TOPS EXTENDING TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER AS IF SHEAR IS OCCURRING. SINCE NO
AVAILABLE DATA SHOWS SHEAR...THE REASON FOR THIS APPEARANCE IS
UNKNOWN.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 335/8. JOHN IS APPROACHING THE WESTERN END OF
A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO...WITH WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWING COMPLEX UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING AND WESTERLY FLOW
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE
LARGE-SCALE MODELS ARE SHOWING LITTLE RIDGING BUILDING WESTWARD TO
THE NORTH OF JOHN...AND THUS ARE CALLING FOR THE STORM TO MOVE
GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA AND POSSIBLY INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THE
NOGAPS AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN HAVE SIGNIFICANT JUMPS TO THE
RIGHT...AND ONLY THE CANADIAN AND THE ECMWF STILL TAKE JOHN
WESTWARD INTO THE PACIFIC WEST OF BAJA. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS
SHIFTED NOTABLY TO THE EAST AND NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...BUT
NOT AS FAR EAST AS THE MODEL GUIDANCE AFTER 72 HR. SHOULD THE
CURRENT MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE...THE LATER PART OF THE FORECAST
TRACK WILL REQUIRE ADDITIONAL SHIFTS IN SUBSEQUENT ADVISORIES.

THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE CENTER OF JOHN CLOSE ENOUGH TO BAJA
CALIFORNIA FOR LAND INTERACTION TO AFFECT THE INTENSITY. WITH AN
INCREASING AMOUNT OF INFLOW COMING OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS LAND...THE
CYCLONE SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HR. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST AFTER THAT TIME IS DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK.
SHOULD THE CYCLONE STAY OVER OR CLOSE TO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...
IT WILL PROBABLY WEAKEN SLOWER DURING THE POST-36 HR PERIOD THAN
SHOWN HERE.

IT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL WHETHER JOHN WILL REACH THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. HOWEVER...MOISTURE FROM THE
CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO MOVE OVER THAT REGION EVEN IF THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER DOES NOT.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/0300Z 23.4N 109.6W 95 KT
12HR VT 02/1200Z 24.4N 110.1W 85 KT
24HR VT 03/0000Z 25.5N 110.9W 75 KT
36HR VT 03/1200Z 26.7N 111.8W 55 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 04/0000Z 27.5N 113.0W 35 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 05/0000Z 29.0N 115.0W 30 KT...OVER WATER
96HR VT 06/0000Z 30.0N 117.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT 07/0000Z 30.5N 119.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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#187 Postby mtm4319 » Sat Sep 02, 2006 1:16 am

Man, what's that blowup to the north of John? It's bigger than the hurricane! Seems a little odd-shaped to be a feeder band.

Image
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#188 Postby wxmann_91 » Sat Sep 02, 2006 1:39 am

It's a convective complex, quite common this time of year in that area. May help to hurt John by drawing inflow away from it, if it remains persistant. However, that's rare. More likely, it will die and leave an outflow boundary which can be quite destructive to John as well should John wander too close.
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#189 Postby weatherbee1982 » Sat Sep 02, 2006 5:12 am

The track that NHC has favored with Hurricane John has always been to the west of what the actual track has been. I must humbly disagree with the latest discussion that NHC put out this morning, where they insist that John will interact and go inland into Baja California. GFDL and UKMET have both been models that have consistently been correct with John. Furthermore, historical climatology dictates that any storm that does enter the Gulf of California does not ever return to the Pacific. Please see the picture that I post below.

Also, in response to mtm4319, that is a monster MCC which has been induced by Hurricane John's outer circulation. The storms got their lift thanks to John's dissipating outer squall bands interacting with the Sierra Madres.

Image

Source: Weather Underground Historical Hurricane Track Archives
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#190 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 02, 2006 9:41 am

othing appears above but an error message, no current WTPZ21 data were found.

274
WTPZ31 KNHC 021440
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JOHN ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006
800 AM PDT SAT SEP 02 2006

...JOHN LASHING BAJA CALIFORNIA WITH HIGH WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA FROM MULEGE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST...AND FROM
PUNTA ABREOJOS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST
OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF MULEGE TO BAHIA SAN JUAN
BAUTISTA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST COAST OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO PUNTA
EUGENIA...AND FOR THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM ALTATA TO
GUAYMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN AND NEAR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...BAJA
CALIFORNIA....AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF JOHN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM PDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.8 WEST OR ABOUT 40 MILES...
60 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF LA PAZ MEXICO AND ABOUT 110 MILES...175
KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF LORETO MEXICO.

JOHN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. ON THIS
TRACK THE CENTER OF JOHN SHOULD BE MOVING NEAR OR OVER THE EAST
COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A SMALL
AREA NEAR THE CENTER. JOHN IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FURTHER WEAKENING IS LIKELY AS THE HURRICANE
INTERACTS WITH LAND.

JOHN IS A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER OF
THE HURRICANE.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM
TOTALS UP TO 18 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
BAJA PENINSULA. THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM LA CRUZ TO GUAYMAS
COULD SEE 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 10
INCHES. THESE AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUDSLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

REPEATING THE 800 AM PDT POSITION...24.5 N...110.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200
PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA

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#191 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 02, 2006 3:50 pm

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 022033
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006
200 PM PDT SAT SEP 02 2006

RADAR DATA FROM GUASAVE INDICATES THAT THE CENTER OF JOHN IS IN THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE WEAKENING DEEP CONVECTION SEEN ON
SATELLITE. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS SPENT AT LEAST 12 HOURS OVER
LAND AND IT IS LIKELY TO HAVE DIMINISHED TO A TROPICAL STORM... SO
THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE REDUCED TO 60 KT. STEADY WEAKENING IS
FORECAST AS THE CENTER SHOULD REMAIN OVER OR CLOSE TO BAJA
CALIFORNIA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER... COLDER WATERS
SHOULD KILL THE SYSTEM QUICKLY AFTER THE SEVERELY WEAKENED CYCLONE
EMERGES INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT
TRACK... MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM JOHN IS LIKELY TO
ENHANCE RAINFALL IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST MONSOON AREAS.

THE INITIAL MOTION HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE MORE TO THE LEFT... NOW
315/7. THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN SYNOPTIC REASONING WITH A WEAK
RIDGE PERSISTING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS NOT BEEN CONSISTENT ON HOW MUCH OF A WESTWARD TURN...
IF ANY... TO EXPECT AFTER THE SYSTEM DEPARTS BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE
GFDL AND GFS IN PARTICULAR HAVE BEEN FLIP-FLOPPING FROM A MORE
NORTHERLY TO A WESTERLY TRACK FROM RUN-TO-RUN. LITTLE CHANGE HAS
BEEN MADE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST... WHICH IS JUST A LITTLE SOUTH
OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/2100Z 25.0N 111.2W 60 KT...INLAND
12HR VT 03/0600Z 25.8N 112.1W 50 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 03/1800Z 26.8N 113.2W 40 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 04/0600Z 27.8N 114.3W 30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 04/1800Z 28.7N 115.3W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
72HR VT 05/1800Z 29.5N 117.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 06/1800Z 29.5N 119.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA

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#192 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Mon Sep 04, 2006 12:28 am

Looks like the LLC is redeveloping under the new burst of convection over the gulf of California. This could be a rare Gulf of Califorina system moving up it. Maybe even Restrenghing over the warm water as it moves north.
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#193 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Mon Sep 04, 2006 12:37 am

I remember tracking a system that did something like this. It moved back into the northern gulf of Califorina in strengthen. Thats why I asked the quastion in the quastion forum. Because this might become a interesting route for cyclones some day.
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#194 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Mon Sep 04, 2006 3:11 am

LLC back over the Gulf of California, which is about 82 to 85 degrees. There is some shear blowing the clouds to the east. But if this can stay over that water then some strengthen is posssible.
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#195 Postby Coredesat » Mon Sep 04, 2006 4:24 am

This thread needs to be renamed to TD John etc etc etc.
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#196 Postby gilbert88 » Mon Sep 04, 2006 2:03 pm

Reporta BCS pocos daños por 'John'

Calculan reparar las afectaciones en una semana; dan saldo blanco a Fox

Emiliano Ruiz y Haydeé Ramírez


Los Cabos, México (4 septiembre 2006).- "Gracias a Dios y la naturaleza no fuimos tan gravemente afectados como se tenía pronosticado", resumió el Gobernador de Baja California Sur Narciso Agúndez Montaño en una reunión con el Presidente Vicente Fox e integrantes del gabinete federal.

El Presidente Fox acudió ayer a este municipio y a La Paz a evaluar los daños provocados por el huracán "John".

El balance que le reportaron fue de saldo blanco, aunque las autoridades estatales y federales expresaron que las principales afectaciones se hallaron en los municipios del norte la entidad: Mulegé, Loreto y Comondú.

Según el reporte entregado al Mandatario Federal, las afectaciones a la infraestructura se repararían en el transcurso de la semana y la ocupación hotelera quedó casi sin daños.

Incluso, en un recorrido en una colonia marginal de La Paz, el Presidente se permitió llamar "Juanito" al meteoro que había alcanzado en altamar la categoría 5, y que cuando impactó Baja California Sur se había debilitado a categoría 2.

"Para los medios de comunicación, además de agradecerles, señalarles que quizá hoy no llevan una nota como en otras ocasiones que están siempre atentos a que no hay afortunadamente pérdida de vidas que lamentar y el impacto es, en términos relativos, bastante decoroso", dijo el Presidente en la última reunión, en el aeropuerto de La Paz.

En una reunión con empresarios y hoteleros en Los Cabos, Fox tuvo que estimular que tomaran la palabra, "adelante, no hay censura, ánimo". Alberto Coppel, presidente de la asociación de hoteles de Los Cabos, dijo que lo hoteles registraban 50 por ciento de ocupación.

Cristóbal Jaime, de la Comisión Nacional del Agua, dijo que el suministro de agua potable no se había interrumpido.

Pedro Cerisola, Secretario de Comunicaciones y Transportes, expresó que no había mayor problema y que en 72 horas se terminarían las reparaciones.

Rodolfo Elizondo, Secretario de Turismo, descartó daños en infraestructura hotelera, y el Secretario de Salud, Julio Frenk, aseguró que no fueron dañadas las unidades médicas.

Personal de la CFE aseguró que Los Cabos se alimentaba de una planta de electricidad que funcionaba con combustible y que en tres días se restablecerían los servicios con normalidad.

Laura Gurza, coordinadora de Protección Civil, dijo que funcionaban 49 refugios con 5 mil 606 personas "que ya querían irse a sus casas".

El Gobernador Agúndez pidió en La Paz que la Comisión Nacional del Agua declarara "zona de desastre" a los cinco municipios del estado, (la declaratoria permite acceder a recursos del Fonden), y Jaime Jáquez respondió qu se evaluaría.

En Los Cabos, el Presidente Fox advirtió que los 4 mil millones de pesos del presupuesto anual del Fonden ya se han terminado, en parte porque se cubrieron pasivos de 2005, cuando los desastres de "Stan" y "Wilma". Sale ohn de BCS A las 18:00 horas de ayer, tiempo local, el huracán "John" salió de Baja California Sur convertido en tormenta tropical.

Durante la sesión del consejo estatal de Protección Civil se informó que las últimas localidades donde tocó tierra fue en los municipios de Mulegé.

No se tiene información de la cantidad de daños que la tormenta pudo dejar en el lugar por estar incomunicados.

Hasta ahora lo único que se reportó fue el desborde del río Mulegé.

Alonso Gutiérrez, representante de Teléfonos de México en Baja California Sur reportó que en la entidad quedó afectado el servicio telefónico y de internet.

---

Basically... less damage than expected, and no deaths caused by John, according to the authorities in Baja California Sur. Great news!

The note has one error, though... John never reached Category 5, or did he?

Seems like John will show up again in 2012.
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HURAKAN
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#197 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Sep 04, 2006 2:24 pm

John only reached 135 mph, cat. 4.
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