Tropical Depression John in EPAC

CocoCreek · #81 Postby **CocoCreek** » Wed Aug 30, 2006 9:19 am

CapeVerdeWave wrote:Why are they keeping the initial intensity at 100KT? Based on RECON data, I was expecting more along the lines of bumping the intensity upward to 105KT or so. I thought RECON had confirmed via readings that John is closer to 105KT/110KT, so why hasn't the latest advisory bumped the intensity up slightly?

Not sure, but at the time I think it was going through or just finishing up an eye-wall replacement cycle so maybe they held back to see what the outcome would be once it was completed. This is a pretty cool storm to watch in the EPAC because these typically don't take this kind of path. I'm sure some tourists' labor day plans are going to be interrupted in that area but the surf is going to be amazing.

CocoCreek · #82 Postby **CocoCreek** » Wed Aug 30, 2006 9:22 am

John is a Category 4 now...

CocoCreek · #83 Postby **CocoCreek** » Wed Aug 30, 2006 9:35 am

The visible shot of the eye is awesome right now as the light is just starting to come over it. The surrounding upper-air environment looks ideal for this system as compared to the hostile upper-air conditions in the Atlantic all season (i.e. ULL's knocking everything around).

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t6/sloop-vis.html

Thunder44 · #84 Postby **Thunder44** » Wed Aug 30, 2006 9:39 am

Nice visible image looking from above space:

CocoCreek · #85 Postby **CocoCreek** » Wed Aug 30, 2006 9:42 am

Thunder44 wrote:Nice visible image looking from above space:

At least there's no question as to where the center is like some storm that shall remain nameless...

Website · #86 Postby **Brent** » Wed Aug 30, 2006 9:53 am

BULLETIN
HURRICANE JOHN ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006
800 AM PDT WED AUG 30 2006

...HURRICANE JOHN NOW A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...NEW WATCHES AND
WARNINGS ISSUED...

AT 8 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE
HURRICANE WARNING NORTHWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES. A HURRICANE
WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM LAZARO CARDENAS WESTWARD TO CABO
CORRIENTES.

AT 8 AM PDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH
FOR THE ISLAS MARIAS.

AT 8 AM PDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FROM CABO CORRIENTES TO EL ROBLITO.

AT 8 AM PDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL
WARNING EAST OF ACAPULCO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN
EFFECT FROM ACAPULCO TO LAZARO CARDENAS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA TO LAZARO
CARDENAS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM PDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.3 WEST OR ABOUT 160 MILES
...260 KM...WEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO AND ABOUT 95 MILES...155 KM...
SOUTH OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO.

JOHN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. JOHN IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WHILE THE CENTER OF JOHN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST
OFFSHORE...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REACH THE
COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...BASED ON RECENT RECONNAISSANCE
DATA...IS 948 MB...27.99 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS UP TO
12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN
THE WARNING AREAS. THESE AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER OF THE
HURRICANE.

REPEATING THE 800 AM PDT POSITION...16.6 N...102.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200
PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/FRANKLIN

Website · #87 Postby **Brent** » Wed Aug 30, 2006 9:56 am

mtm4319 · #88 Postby **mtm4319** » Wed Aug 30, 2006 9:58 am

Brent wrote:BULLETIN
HURRICANE JOHN ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006
800 AM PDT WED AUG 30 2006

...HURRICANE JOHN NOW A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...

I found out this information in an AP article on Yahoo! News before anything was on the NHC site. I think that's a first for me...

Normandy · #89 Postby **Normandy** » Wed Aug 30, 2006 10:01 am

Wow a major into Cabo

LeeJet · #90 Postby **LeeJet** » Wed Aug 30, 2006 10:03 am

What if it went between Baja Califorinia and the Mexican mainland? That water is very warm, meaning it could feasibly hit Arizona as a hurricane!

cpdaman · #91 Postby **cpdaman** » Wed Aug 30, 2006 10:23 am

i can only guess that if that track were to pan out there would be some pretty big swells headed into the gulf of california which would be very unique

i understand however the danger of a storm like this and that people near the southern end of caba will be evacuated and hopefully safe

CocoCreek · #92 Postby **CocoCreek** » Wed Aug 30, 2006 10:30 am

Looks like the cloud tops have warmed just a bit to the NW of the center in the last few IR frames, but overall a very solid and formidable system. I wouldn't put my guard down if I lived in Puerto Vallarta for a close brush with the eye, but the good news there for surge is that it should be going out of Bahia de Banderas with a pass of the center to the SW until the winds came back around from the other direction.

#93 Postby **CrazyC83** » Wed Aug 30, 2006 10:39 am

What are the chances of a right turn and hence a landfall?

TexWx · #94 Postby **TexWx** » Wed Aug 30, 2006 10:45 am

Question:

If John stays on the NHC forcasted track, when do you think that Cabo would start to feel some effects from this storm?

thanks

CocoCreek · #95 Postby **CocoCreek** » Wed Aug 30, 2006 10:45 am

CrazyC83 wrote:What are the chances of a right turn and hence a landfall?

Better than usual but would be unbelievably rare for this area. It's riding SW around the ridge and like we hear over and over it depends on the strength of the ridge in determing the exact path. It looks like a close brush with land at this point, but a hard or fairly pronounced right turn at this point looks unlikely. Saving grace would also be more interaction with land that would weaken the system a bit as almost half of the system would be over Mexico. I'm sure Cabo wouldn't mind though if it found land earlier.

CocoCreek · #96 Postby **CocoCreek** » Wed Aug 30, 2006 10:55 am

TexWx wrote:Question:

If John stays on the NHC forcasted track, when do you think that Cabo would start to feel some effects from this storm?

thanks

Based on the NHC forecast track, the center would be not too far South on Friday morning ~5AM. With the storm being so large I'm sure Cabo would start to get some sporadic gusty winds and squally type weather with some higher than usual waves and surf propagating out from the storm in earnest late Thursday evening.

CocoCreek · #97 Postby **CocoCreek** » Wed Aug 30, 2006 12:12 pm

Does it look like this is about to go through another EWR cycle or is the eye getting smaller and tightening up even further? I tend to think that with the warming cloud tops that this might be another EWR which could then be followed by some additional strengthening.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t6/sloop-avn.html

Jim Cantore · #98 Postby **Jim Cantore** » Wed Aug 30, 2006 12:26 pm

These small Pinhole eyed storms scare me (Actually that started with Wilma) I just hope it doesn't do alot of damage.

#99 Postby **SkeetoBite** » Wed Aug 30, 2006 12:41 pm

#100 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Aug 30, 2006 12:55 pm

943
WTPZ31 KNHC 301748
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JOHN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006
1100 AM PDT WED AUG 30 2006

...DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE MOVING PARALLEL TO THE WEST
COAST OF MEXICO...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LAZARO CARDENAS WESTWARD
TO CABO CORRIENTES.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAS MARIAS. A HURRICANE
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA TO LAZARO
CARDENAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM ACAPULCO TO LAZARO
CARDENAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CABO CORRIENTES TO EL
ROBLITO.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM PDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.8 WEST OR ABOUT 170 MILES
...270 KM...SOUTHEAST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND ABOUT 70 MILES...115
KM...SOUTHWEST OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO.

JOHN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. JOHN IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WHILE THE CENTER OF JOHN IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO
REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

RECENTLY AN OBSERVING STATION FROM THE MEXICAN NAVY AT PUERTO
VICENTE...NEAR ZIHUATANEJO...ALONG THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO
REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 948 MB...27.99 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS UP TO
12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN
THE WARNING AREAS. THESE AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER OF THE
HURRICANE.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM PDT POSITION...17.1 N...102.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/PASCH

Tropical Depression John in EPAC

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