Hurricane Florence - Cat. 1

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
Thunder44
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5922
Age: 43
Joined: Mon Jun 09, 2003 7:53 pm
Location: New York City

#921 Postby Thunder44 » Mon Sep 11, 2006 4:07 am

000
WTNT31 KNHC 110858
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FLORENCE ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
500 AM AST MON SEP 11 2006

...FLORENCE APPROACHES BERMUDA BUT IS NOT STRENGTHENING...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. A HURRICANE
WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLORENCE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 31.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.0 WEST OR ABOUT 80 MILES...
125 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

FLORENCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. A TURN
TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CENTER OF FLORENCE IS
EXPECTED TO PASS A SHORT DISTANCE TO THE WEST OF BERMUDA WITHIN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. FLORENCE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. AN ELEVATED OBSERVING SITE IN BERMUDA RECENTLY REPORTED A
GUST TO 79 MPH.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290
MILES...465 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 976 MB...28.82 INCHES.

STORM SURGE VALUES OF 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES ARE LIKELY ALONG THE COAST
OF BERMUDA AS FLORENCE PASSES NEAR THE ISLAND.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED IN BERMUDA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH FLORENCE...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6
INCHES.

LARGE OCEAN SWELLS AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS... INCLUDING STRONG
RIP CURRENTS... ARE AFFECTING THE BAHAMAS AND PORTIONS OF THE EAST
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SEE
STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES FOR DETAILS ON
COASTAL CONDITIONS.

REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...31.8 N...66.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN


000
WTNT41 KNHC 110857
TCDAT1
HURRICANE FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
500 AM EDT MON SEP 11 2006

A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT JUST FINISHED ONE COMPLETE PATTERN IN
FLORENCE...AND THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 73 KT IN THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT. THIS IS DOWN FROM THE 86 KT FOUND ON THE
PREVIOUS MISSION. THE CREW ALSO REPORTED THAT THE EYEWALL HAD
ERODED...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH IMAGES FROM THE BERMUDA RADAR.
ALTHOUGH THE PRESSURE IS HOLDING STEADY...IT APPEARS THAT THE WIND
FIELD HAS EXPANDED SOMEWHAT...AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS LOWERED
TO 70 KT. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION HAS INCREASED DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS...THE BROADENING OF THE WIND FIELD SUGGESTS THAT THERE WILL
BE NO MAJOR CHANGES IN INTENSITY BEFORE FLORENCE MOVES AWAY FROM
BERMUDA. AFTER ABOUT 24-36 HOURS...SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR WILL
INCREASE SHARPLY AND FLORENCE WILL BE MOVING OVER MUCH COOLER
WATERS. HOWEVER...BAROCLINIC INTERACTION WITH A SHORT WAVE IN THE
WESTERLIES IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE NEW ENERGY TO FLORENCE AS IT
BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL AFTER 48 HOURS...WHICH WILL SLOW THE
WEAKENING PROCESS AND RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT EXPANSION OF THE WIND
FIELD.

FLORENCE HAS BEGUN ITS RECURVATURE...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF
010/10. ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF FLORENCE WILL PASS WELL TO THE WEST
OF BERMUDA...THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS EAST OF THE CENTER WILL BE
VERY CLOSE TO THE ISLAND. THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE
WEST TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND
THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE GFS CONTROL RUN IS AN OUTLIER WITH A
FASTER EASTWARD MOTION...BUT INTERESTINGLY...THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 11/0900Z 31.8N 66.0W 70 KT
12HR VT 11/1800Z 33.6N 65.6W 70 KT
24HR VT 12/0600Z 36.0N 64.5W 70 KT
36HR VT 12/1800Z 38.5N 62.5W 65 KT
48HR VT 13/0600Z 41.5N 60.0W 60 KT
72HR VT 14/0600Z 46.5N 50.5W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 15/0600Z 50.0N 35.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 16/0600Z...ABSORBED WITHIN EXTRATROPICAL LOW

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
0 likes   

User avatar
TheEuropean
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 1793
Age: 58
Joined: Tue Sep 20, 2005 3:17 pm
Location: Voerde, Germany
Contact:

#922 Postby TheEuropean » Mon Sep 11, 2006 4:16 am

No data coming in since 08:50 UTC.
0 likes   

User avatar
WindRunner
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5806
Age: 33
Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 8:07 pm
Location: Warrenton, VA, but Albany, NY for school
Contact:

#923 Postby WindRunner » Mon Sep 11, 2006 5:29 am

Hmmm . . . is "Radar Data Currently Unavailable" a good sign on the Bermuda radar? That was up for the 07:23 frame, though I don't know what time zone that is for.
0 likes   

O Town
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5203
Age: 50
Joined: Wed Sep 07, 2005 9:37 pm
Location: Orlando, Florida 28°35'35"N 81°22'55"W

#924 Postby O Town » Mon Sep 11, 2006 6:35 am

WindRunner wrote:Hmmm . . . is "Radar Data Currently Unavailable" a good sign on the Bermuda radar? That was up for the 07:23 frame, though I don't know what time zone that is for.

Not sure that is a good sign at all. They were about to get the eyewall when it went down.
Image

Reports of power out here.
http://stormcarib.com/reports/current/bermuda.shtml
0 likes   

User avatar
hurricanefloyd5
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1659
Age: 43
Joined: Sun May 02, 2004 10:53 am
Location: Spartanburg
Contact:

#925 Postby hurricanefloyd5 » Mon Sep 11, 2006 6:43 am

Tropical Storm Public Advisory

Statement as of 8:00 am AST on September 11, 2006



...Florence passing near Bermuda....hurricane force wind gusts
reported on the Island...

A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for Bermuda. A Hurricane
Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the
warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect
life and property should have already been completed.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

At 800 am AST...1200z...the center of Hurricane Florence was located
near latitude 32.3 north...longitude 65.8 west or about 60 miles...
95 km...west of Bermuda.

Florence is moving toward the north near 12 mph...19 km/hr. A turn
to the north-northeast with an increase in forward speed is
expected over the next 24 hours. The center of Florence is
passing a short distance to the west and northwest of Bermuda this
morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph...130 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Florence is a category one hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
scale. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 24
hours. An elevated observing site in Bermuda recently reported a
gust to 96 mph.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 60 miles...95 km...from
the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 290
miles...465 km.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by reconnaissance
aircraft was 974 mb...28.76 inches.

Storm surge values of 6 to 8 feet above normal tide levels along
with large and dangerous battering waves are likely along the coast
of Bermuda as Florence passes near the island today.

Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches can be expected in Bermuda in
association with Florence...with isolated maximum amounts of 6
inches.

Large ocean swells and dangerous surf conditions... including strong
rip currents... are affecting the Bahamas and portions of the East
Coast of the United States and the Canadian Maritimes. See
statements from local Weather Service offices for details on
coastal conditions.

Repeating the 800 am AST position...32.3 N...65.8 W. Movement
toward...north near 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds...80 mph.
Minimum central pressure...974 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center
at 1100 am AST.

$$
Forecaster brown/Pasch
0 likes   

Sanibel
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10348
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:06 pm
Location: Offshore SW Florida

#926 Postby Sanibel » Mon Sep 11, 2006 6:55 am

Looked like it was taking a turn for the island last night. But it was only a wobble I guess.

60-70 mile near-miss to the west of a category 1 hurricane.

2006 limits intensity again.

Maximum impact right now on Bermuda.
0 likes   

User avatar
P.K.
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 5149
Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
Location: Watford, England
Contact:

#927 Postby P.K. » Mon Sep 11, 2006 7:13 am

Image
Image
Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Nimbus
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4928
Joined: Mon Jul 19, 2004 10:54 am

#928 Postby Nimbus » Mon Sep 11, 2006 7:15 am

Florence tracked just west far enough to spare Bermuda the core winds. Hope they get the power back up quickly.
0 likes   

User avatar
P.K.
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 5149
Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
Location: Watford, England
Contact:

#929 Postby P.K. » Mon Sep 11, 2006 7:31 am

Commissioners Point now reporting 64.7kt sustained (Ten minute average I'd assume), with gusts to 85.3kts in the previous observation.
0 likes   

User avatar
P.K.
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 5149
Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
Location: Watford, England
Contact:

#930 Postby P.K. » Mon Sep 11, 2006 9:07 am

St Davids, 65.8kt sustained with gusts to 93.3kt. Both this station and the one in my previous post are giving far higher values than Fort Prospect which in the last reading was 46kt sustained with gusts to 71kts.
0 likes   

Sanibel
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10348
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:06 pm
Location: Offshore SW Florida

#931 Postby Sanibel » Mon Sep 11, 2006 9:12 am

That windfield spread at that intensity is telling you a lot about the storm structure and why it isn't stronger. 2006 conditions are limiting core intensity and keeping the windfield spread out.
0 likes   

User avatar
P.K.
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 5149
Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
Location: Watford, England
Contact:

#932 Postby P.K. » Mon Sep 11, 2006 9:20 am

Image
0 likes   

Sanibel
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10348
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:06 pm
Location: Offshore SW Florida

#933 Postby Sanibel » Mon Sep 11, 2006 9:30 am

97 knot gust on the east end.
0 likes   

User avatar
P.K.
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 5149
Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
Location: Watford, England
Contact:

#934 Postby P.K. » Mon Sep 11, 2006 9:42 am

80kts sustained.

WTNT21 KNHC 111437
TCMAT1
HURRICANE FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
1500 UTC MON SEP 11 2006

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. A HURRICANE
WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.9N 65.6W AT 11/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 80SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT.......250NE 175SE 90SW 175NW.
12 FT SEAS..475NE 275SE 350SW 450NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.9N 65.6W AT 11/1500Z
AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.3N 65.8W

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 34.7N 64.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 95 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...250NE 175SE 90SW 175NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 37.1N 63.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...275NE 175SE 100SW 275NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 40.0N 60.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...300NE 250SE 150SW 275NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 43.4N 56.7W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT...350NE 350SE 200SW 250NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 47.5N 46.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT...120NE 150SE 150SW 150NW.
34 KT...360NE 480SE 420SW 300NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 50.5N 30.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.9N 65.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH
0 likes   

User avatar
WmE
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 696
Age: 35
Joined: Sat Jun 17, 2006 11:23 am
Location: Vienna, Austria

#935 Postby WmE » Mon Sep 11, 2006 9:46 am

000
WTNT31 KNHC 111442
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FLORENCE ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
1100 AM AST MON SEP 11 2006

...FLORENCE STRONGER...POUNDING BERMUDA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. A HURRICANE
WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLORENCE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.6 WEST OR ABOUT 60
MILES...100 KM...NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

FLORENCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR
...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CENTER OF FLORENCE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE AWAY FROM BERMUDA LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH...150
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FLORENCE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. AN ELEVATED OBSERVING SITE IN BERMUDA
RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 111 MPH...179 KM/HR.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290
MILES...465 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 972 MB...28.70 INCHES.

STORM SURGE VALUES OF 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES ARE LIKELY ALONG THE COAST
OF BERMUDA TODAY. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN SUBSIDING
TONIGHT.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED IN
BERMUDA IN ASSOCIATION WITH FLORENCE.

LARGE OCEAN SWELLS AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS... INCLUDING STRONG
RIP CURRENTS... ARE AFFECTING THE BAHAMAS AND PORTIONS OF THE EAST
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SEE
STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES FOR DETAILS ON
COASTAL CONDITIONS.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...32.9 N...65.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH
0 likes   

User avatar
WmE
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 696
Age: 35
Joined: Sat Jun 17, 2006 11:23 am
Location: Vienna, Austria

#936 Postby WmE » Mon Sep 11, 2006 9:53 am

ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
1100 AM EDT MON SEP 11 2006

THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA
INDICATED THAT THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE HAD FALLEN ONLY A FEW
MB...SUGGESTING THAT THERE HAD BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH.
SINCE THAT TIME...HOWEVER...THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME MORE
IMPRESSIVE AND SEVERAL REPORTS OF SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
HAVE BEEN RECEIVED FROM BERMUDA...INCLUDING THE OFFICIAL OBSERVING
SITE ON THE ISLAND. THE LATTER REPORT WAS RELAYED TO US BY THE
BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE. BASED ON THESE OBSERVATIONS...AND THE
LIKELIHOOD OF HIGHER VELOCITIES OCCURRING SOMEWHERE IN THE
CIRCULATION...THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED UPWARD TO 80 KT.
THE GUST FACTOR IS ALSO SET A LITTLE HIGHER THAN NORMAL...AND THE
WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE BASED ON THE
SAME OBSERVATIONS.

BOTH THE INTENSITY AND TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAIN UNCHANGED
FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FLORENCE'S INTENSITY IS NOT LIKELY
TO CHANGE MUCH IN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...THEREAFTER INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND COOLER SSTS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPART SOME
WEAKENING....HOWEVER INTERACTION WITH A SHORT WAVE IN THE
WESTERLIES MAY PROVIDE NEW ENERGY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE WEAKENING
PROCESS SLOW. WIND RADII ARE FORECAST TO SIGNIFICANTLY EXPAND AS
THE CYCLONE BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL IN 48 TO 72 HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 015/11. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN
MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THAN IT WAS 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE NOGAPS
AND GFDL REMAIN ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE WHILE THE GFS AND
UKMET ARE ON THE RIGHT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE
PREVIOUS TRACK...AND IT REMAINS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND
THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 11/1500Z 32.9N 65.6W 80 KT
12HR VT 12/0000Z 34.7N 64.9W 75 KT
24HR VT 12/1200Z 37.1N 63.4W 70 KT
36HR VT 13/0000Z 40.0N 60.8W 65 KT
48HR VT 13/1200Z 43.4N 56.7W 60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 14/1200Z 47.5N 46.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 15/1200Z 50.5N 30.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH

NNNN
0 likes   

User avatar
JtSmarts
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1420
Age: 38
Joined: Thu Jul 10, 2003 1:29 pm
Location: Columbia, South Carolina

#937 Postby JtSmarts » Mon Sep 11, 2006 9:56 am

With those kind of winds no one can say this wasn't a hurricane.
0 likes   

User avatar
JtSmarts
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1420
Age: 38
Joined: Thu Jul 10, 2003 1:29 pm
Location: Columbia, South Carolina

#938 Postby JtSmarts » Mon Sep 11, 2006 10:01 am

Jim Cantore getting hammered right now on TWC.
0 likes   

User avatar
artist
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9793
Joined: Mon Jun 06, 2005 3:26 pm
Location: West Palm

#939 Postby artist » Mon Sep 11, 2006 10:14 am

000
URNT12 KNHC 111155
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 11/1107Z
B. 32 DEG 12 MIN N
65 DEG 47 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2897 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 123 DEG 64 KT
G. 018 DEG 44 NM
H. 974 MB
I. 8 C/ 3058 M
J. 14 C/ 3052 M
K. 14 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345/7
O. 0.2/1 NM
P. AF303 0506A FLOENCE 0B 71
MAX FL WIND 66 KT SE QUAD 0956Z
EYEWALL N THRU NE, OPEN S
0 likes   

MiamiensisWx

#940 Postby MiamiensisWx » Mon Sep 11, 2006 10:16 am

Hmm... they are apparently still there, but why hasn't there been any new sets for a few hours until the vortex posted just now? Odd...

Latest RECON reports/observations

Note the long gap between observations from 5:00AM EST until now, as a vortex message has been posted.
0 likes   


Return to “2006”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 9 guests