Hurricane Florence - Cat. 1

[SouthFLTropics]

Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on September 04, 2006


...Tropical depression over the central Atlantic has not
strengthened...

at 500 am EDT...0900z...the center of Tropical Depression Six was
located near latitude 15.6 north...longitude 41.1 west or about 1345
miles...2165 km...east of the Lesser Antilles.

The depression is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph...and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph...55 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24
hours...and the depression could become a tropical storm later today
or tomorrow.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb...29.68 inches.

Repeating the 500 am EDT position...15.6 N...41.1 W. Movement
toward...northwest near 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds...35 mph.
Minimum central pressure...1005 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
1100 am EDT.

$$
Forecaster Rhome/Avila

[SouthFLTropics]

Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on September 04, 2006



conventional satellite imagery suggest that there has been little
overall change in the organization of the depression. The
circulation continues to be broad with several possible centers.
Although banding features remain impressive...they are somewhat
removed from the estimated center. Based on this analysis and
unchanged Dvorak intensity estimates...the initial intensity
remains 30 kt for this advisory. The depression appears to be
encountering some southwesterly shear associated with an
upper-tropospheric trough to the northwest. This trough is
expected to slowly lift northeastward over the next 2 to 3
days...so vertical shear may limit strengthening in the short-term.
Later in the forecast period...global models indicate that the
upper-level environment could become more conducive for
strengthening as a large upper-level anticyclone forms over
cyclone. The official forecast is based on a blend of the SHIPS
and GFDL models...and is essentially an update of the previous
advisory.

Given the poorly defined center...the estimated initial motion of
310/10 is uncertain. The depression is currently moving toward a
weakness in the mid-level ridge between 45w-55w longitude. This
weakness is expected to remain essentially stationary during the
next 2 to 3 days allowing a continuation of the current motion.
Thereafter...a ridge over the western Atlantic is forecast to shift
eastward north of the cyclone resulting in a more westward motion.
While all global models and the GFDL are in good agreement on this
general westward turn...nearly all of them are now much slower in
the forward speed. This requires some adjustment and the new
forecast is along but slower than the previous one.
Forecast positions and Max winds

initial 04/0900z 15.6n 41.1w 30 kt
12hr VT 04/1800z 16.5n 42.4w 30 kt
24hr VT 05/0600z 17.5n 44.0w 35 kt
36hr VT 05/1800z 18.4n 45.6w 45 kt
48hr VT 06/0600z 19.0n 47.1w 55 kt
72hr VT 07/0600z 20.0n 51.0w 60 kt
96hr VT 08/0600z 21.0n 54.0w 70 kt
120hr VT 09/0600z 22.0n 57.0w 75 kt

$$
forecaster Rhome/Avila

[SouthFLTropics]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... shtml?5day

[cycloneye]

173
WTNT21 KNHC 041431
TCMAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
1500 UTC MON SEP 04 2006

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 42.7W AT 04/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 42.7W AT 04/1500Z
AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 42.3W

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 17.0N 44.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 17.8N 45.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 18.5N 47.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 19.2N 48.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 0SE 0SW 45NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 45SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 20.0N 52.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 25SW 45NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 45SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 21.0N 55.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 22.0N 59.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 42.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN

[cycloneye]

[TampaSteve]

I smell a fish moving away from S Fla! I PRAY for a fish moving away from S Fla!

Yes...fish storm...I'll go with that...please...

[cycloneye]

172
WTNT41 KNHC 041431
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
1100 AM EDT MON SEP 04 2006

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THE DEPRESSION IS NEARING STORM
STRENGTH. CURVED BANDS ARE BECOMING MORE PROMINENT IN THE
NORTHWEST QUADRANT AND EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE DEPRESSION...THOUGH
THESE BANDS ARE STILL SOMEWHAT FAR FROM THE CENTER. A QUIKSCAT
PASS OVER THE DEPRESSION AT 0901 UTC SHOWS THAT THERE ARE PLENTY OF
25 TO 30 KT WINDS IN THE CIRCULATION... AND A SMALL AREA OF
POSSIBLY RAIN-INFLATED 35 KT VECTORS. ALTHOUGH SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE AT MINIMAL STORM STRENGTH... QUIKSCAT IS NOT CLEARLY
SUPPORTIVE OF SUCH AN INTENSITY AND WITH THE CONVECTION REMAINING A
LITTLE THIN... THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL STAY 30 KT.

MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A RATHER DEEP TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SHOULD PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR ONLY A SLOW STRENGTHENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THEREAFTER... THE TAIL END OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS
FORECAST BY ALMOST ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS TO FRACTURE... LEAVING
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW BEHIND... TO THE WEST OF THE STORM. THIS UPPER
LOW SHOULD MOVE WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE SYSTEM... AND IN ITS WAKE
GLOBAL MODELS RESPOND BY BUILDING A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
OVER THE STORM. THESE CONDITIONS COULD ALLOW FOR MORE STRENGTHENING
THAN SHOWN TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. FOR NOW A BLEND
OF THE GFDL AND SHIPS WILL BE USED...WHICH RESULTS IN LITTLE CHANGE
TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

RECENT VISIBLE IMAGES REQUIRE A WESTWARD RELOCATION OF THE
DEPRESSION BY ABOUT 60 MILES... GIVING A LONGER-TERM AVERAGE MOTION
OF 305/10. THE LARGE MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN
SHEARING THE SYSTEM IS ALSO RESPONSIBLE FOR WEAKENING THE RIDGE TO
THE NORTH... CAUSING THE NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. THE MIDDLE
TROPOSPHERIC PORTION OF THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PULL OUT IN ABOUT
48 HOURS... AND SHOULD ALLOW A WESTWARD TURN AROUND THAT TIME. THE
TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH...SOMEWHAT
TO REFLECT THE CENTER RELOCATION... BUT IS STILL NORTH OF MOST OF
THE GLOBAL MODELS IN THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE FORECAST. TOWARD
THE END OF THE FORECAST... A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK SEEMS
MOST LIKELY WITH A STRONG RIDGE FORECAST OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
SOME MODELS SLOW THE SYSTEM DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD... WHICH IS A LITTLE PUZZLING GIVEN THE STRONG RIDGING.
WE'VE OPTED TO BE AHEAD OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS BUT STILL SLOWER
THAN THE GFS/GFDL/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/1500Z 16.3N 42.7W 30 KT
12HR VT 05/0000Z 17.0N 44.0W 35 KT
24HR VT 05/1200Z 17.8N 45.6W 40 KT
36HR VT 06/0000Z 18.5N 47.1W 45 KT
48HR VT 06/1200Z 19.2N 48.9W 50 KT
72HR VT 07/1200Z 20.0N 52.0W 60 KT
96HR VT 08/1200Z 21.0N 55.5W 70 KT
120HR VT 09/1200Z 22.0N 59.0W 75 KT

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN

[WmE]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 041433
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
1100 AM EDT MON SEP 04 2006

...DEPRESSION ALMOST A TROPICAL STORM...

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX WAS
RELOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 42.7 WEST OR ABOUT
1235 MILES...1990 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...16.3 N...42.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN

[Josephine96]

So it still may become a TS` today? since they say it's near storm strength..

[Frank2]

It seems that if it's forecast to already be at 24N even before reaching Puerto Rico (per Derek Ott's forecast), that would mean only one thing...

Frank

P.S. The current trough to it's north is making all the difference...

[cycloneye]

895
WTNT31 KNHC 042046
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
500 PM EDT MON SEP 04 2006

...DEPRESSION A LITTLE DISORGANIZED...

AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.8 WEST OR ABOUT
1165 MILES...1875 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...16.9 N...43.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN



If nothing appears above but an error message, no current WTNT31 data were found.

896
WTNT21 KNHC 042046
TCMAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
2100 UTC MON SEP 04 2006

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 43.8W AT 04/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 43.8W AT 04/2100Z
AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 43.3W

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 17.6N 45.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 18.3N 46.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 19.0N 48.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 19.5N 50.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 45SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 20.5N 54.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 25SW 45NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 45SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 21.5N 58.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 23.0N 62.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 43.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN

[SouthFloridawx]

534
WTNT41 KNHC 042045
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
500 PM EDT MON SEP 04 2006

SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT STRENGTHENED.
IN FACT... IT LOOKS LESS ORGANIZED THAN 6 HOURS AGO AND HAS A
SOMEWHAT DISHEVELED APPEARANCE. THE CENTER... AS BEST WE CAN
TELL... IS BETWEEN TWO BANDING FEATURES THAT ARE LOOKING
INCREASINGLY LINEAR. SATELLITE ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED FROM
EARLIER AT TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY... BUT THERE IS NO GOOD REASON
TO UPGRADE THE SYSTEM AS DISORGANIZED AS IT LOOKS NOW. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS LEFT AT 30 KT.

SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SEEMS TO BE INHIBITING STRENGTHENING AT
THIS TIME. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY FORECAST THE SHEAR TO
DIMINISH... ESPECIALLY AFTER 48 HOURS... AFTER WHICH MORE
SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION COULD BEGIN. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
LOWERED IN THE NEAR-TERM TO REFLECT THE DISORGANIZED INITIAL
STATE... BUT IS KEPT ALMOST THE SAME IN THE LATER TERM OUT OF
RESPECT FOR THE GLOBAL MODELS... WHICH ALMOST UNANIMOUSLY HAVE THE
SYSTEM IN A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FROM DAYS 3-5.

THE INITIAL MOTION APPEARS TO BE ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE... 305/10.
COMPUTER MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE
DEPRESSION WITH A STRONG RIDGE FORECAST TO BUILD IN A COUPLE
DAYS...AFTER A LARGE TROUGH DEPARTS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN.
HOWEVER...THE BIG DIFFERENCE AMONG THE MODELS IS THE SYSTEM'S
SPEED. NOGAPS SHOOTS THE DEPRESSION WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AN
UNBELIEVABLY FAST RATE. THE GFDL CONTINUES TO BE ON THE FASTER SIDE
OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE UKMET... AFTER BEING ONE OF THE
SLOWEST MODELS... HAS MADE A LARGE WESTWARD SHIFT AND IS NOW
SIMILAR TO THE GFS POSITION. WITH SUCH A STRONG RIDGE FORECAST...
WE'VE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF BEING A LITTLE FASTER THAN A MODEL
CONSENSUS THAT EXCLUDES THE NOGAPS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/2100Z 16.9N 43.8W 30 KT
12HR VT 05/0600Z 17.6N 45.0W 30 KT
24HR VT 05/1800Z 18.3N 46.5W 35 KT
36HR VT 06/0600Z 19.0N 48.1W 40 KT
48HR VT 06/1800Z 19.5N 50.0W 45 KT
72HR VT 07/1800Z 20.5N 54.0W 55 KT
96HR VT 08/1800Z 21.5N 58.0W 65 KT
120HR VT 09/1800Z 23.0N 62.0W 75 KT

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN

[cycloneye]

[Josephine96]

I know it's a 5 day track Luis.. and it'd probably take almost another 5 days lol to reach Fla.. but I don't know if too many Floridians would be comfortable with that track..

[cycloneye]

I know it's a 5 day track Luis.. and it'd probably take almost another 5 days lol to reach Fla.. but I don't know if too many Floridians would be comfortable with that track..

Too early about any landfall point anywhere in the Western Hemisphere with this system if it does at all.

[Josephine96]

True..

[Brent]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
0300 UTC TUE SEP 05 2006

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 44.8W AT 05/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 44.8W AT 05/0300Z
AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 44.3W

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 17.9N 45.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 0SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 18.6N 47.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 0SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 19.2N 49.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 85NE 70SE 0SW 85NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 19.8N 51.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 30SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 21.0N 56.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 35SE 20SW 45NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 40SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 22.0N 60.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 24.0N 65.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 44.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Brent]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
1100 PM EDT MON SEP 04 2006

THERE WAS CONSIDERABLE DIFFICULTY IN TRYING TO DETERMINE A CENTER
POSITION THIS EVENING. BUOY 41041 LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE ELONGATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION INDICATED A WEAK CIRCULATION
HAD PASSED OVER OR NEAR THAT BUOY AROUND 00Z. THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT WE HAVE BEEN TRACKING THE PAST DAY OR SO
HAS BECOME LESS OBVIOUS IN QUIKSCAT AND CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THEREFORE...THE ADVISORY POSITION IS A BLEND OF
CONVENTIONAL FIX POSITIONS AND A 04/2130Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS. THIS
POSITION IS NORTH OF THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONIC ENVELOPE NOTED IN
NIGHTTIME VISIBLE IMAGERY AND QUIKSCAT DATA...AND LEANS CLOSER TO
THE DEEP CONVECTIVE BURST THAT HAS DEVELOPED TO THE NORTH.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/11. UNTIL THE CENTER CONSOLIDATES
AND BECOMES BETTER DEFINED WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN...THERE
MAY BE SOME REFORMATION OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER AS IT MIGRATES
TOWARD ANY CONVECTIVE BURSTS. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL MOTION OF THE
LARGER CYCLONIC ENVELOPE SHOULD BE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH.
BY DAY 5...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN A LITTLE MORE
NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE THAT IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP BETWEEN 65W-75W LONGITUDE. HOWEVER...THE WEAK LOW-LATITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO CREATE THE BREAK IN THE RIDGE
EAST OF FLORIDA IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO PHASE UP WITH A
MUCH STRONGER MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO SWING RAPIDLY
EASTWARD TOWARD THE U.S. EAST COAST. IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT THAT
OFTENTIMES STRONGER MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVES WILL BYPASS AND NOT
LINK UP WITH WEAKER TROUGHS SITUATED OVER LOWER LATITUDES. AS A
RESULT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK INDICATES ONLY A SLIGHT
POLEWARD BEND BY DAY 5...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN FIGHTING OFF
SOME DRY AIR THAT HAS BEEN PUNCHING INTO THE CENTER OF THE
CIRCULATION THE PAST 12 HOURS OR SO...ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS...SO ONLY GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST. HOWEVER...AFTER 72HOURS...THE SHIPS
MODEL IS FORECASTING THE SHEAR TO DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KT...
AND BY 96-120 HOURS BE NEAR ZERO. THAT IS WHEN MORE SIGNIFICANT
INTENSIFICATION COULD OCCUR AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST. THE SHIPS MODEL BRINGS THE CYCLONE TO 87 KT BY 120 HOURS
...WHEREAS THE GFDL STILL MAKES THE SYSTEM A MAJOR HURRICANE AT THAT
TIME. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IS THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN AS INDICATED BY THE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS IN
THE VARIOUS GLOBAL MODELS...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST WILL
REMAIN ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE AND BELOW THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 05/0300Z 17.3N 44.8W 30 KT
12HR VT 05/1200Z 17.9N 45.9W 35 KT
24HR VT 06/0000Z 18.6N 47.7W 40 KT
36HR VT 06/1200Z 19.2N 49.5W 45 KT
48HR VT 07/0000Z 19.8N 51.5W 50 KT
72HR VT 08/0000Z 21.0N 56.0W 60 KT
96HR VT 09/0000Z 22.0N 60.5W 70 KT
120HR VT 10/0000Z 24.0N 65.0W 80 KT

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Bane]

[cycloneye]