Hurricane Florence - Cat. 1

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Derek Ortt

#961 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Sep 11, 2006 7:28 pm

CHC has now issued a Tropical Storm Watch

WWCN31 CWHX 112344
SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN
ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 8:44 PM ADT MONDAY 11 SEPTEMBER 2006.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR:
=NEW= BURIN PENINSULA
=NEW= AVALON PENINSULA SOUTH
=NEW= AVALON PENINSULA NORTH
=NEW= ST. JOHN'S AND VICINITY
=NEW= CLARENVILLE AND VICINITY
=NEW= BONAVISTA PENINSULA.

HURRICANE FLORENCE TO BRING STORMY WEATHER TO SOUTHEASTERN
NEWFOUNDLAND WEDNESDAY.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
==DISCUSSION==
HURRICANE FLORENCE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD.. BUT EAST TO NORTHEAST
GALE FORCE WINDS GUSTING TO 100 KM/H ARE STILL FORECAST TO SPREAD
INTO SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND WELL AHEAD OF THE STORM CENTRE AS IT
APPROACHES. RAINFALL WILL MOVE IN WELL AHEAD OF THE WINDS ON TUESDAY
NIGHT BUT WEDNESDAY WILL BE A VERY STORMY DAY FOR THE ABOVE MENTIONED
AREAS. VERY ROUGH AND DANGEROUS SURF IS ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE SOUTH FACING COAST OF THESE AREAS LATE WEDNESDAY.

FURTHER DETAILS WILL BE GIVEN IN THE REGULAR FORECASTS ISSUED AT 5
A.M. NDT.

END/BOWYER..FOGARTY
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#962 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Sep 11, 2006 7:32 pm

I would have gone with a Hurricane Watch there...
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MiamiensisWx

#963 Postby MiamiensisWx » Mon Sep 11, 2006 9:15 pm

Based on current infra-red and water vapor imagery observations, as well as surface and middle to upper-air signatures, it is very clear that Florence is now quickly becoming extratropical. I personally doubt it is a hurricane anymore, although it may likely still be a middle to high-end tropical storm just about to take on all extratropical entity features. It's now taking on the form of a frontal low, as evidenced by the dry slots in the inner core and to the west and the expanding windfield.

I expect the NHC to possibly downgrade this to a high-end tropical storm becoming extratropical in the upcoming 11PM EST advisory.
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#964 Postby wxman57 » Mon Sep 11, 2006 9:22 pm

CapeVerdeWave wrote:Based on current infra-red and water vapor imagery observations, as well as surface and middle to upper-air signatures, it is very clear that Florence is now quickly becoming extratropical. I personally doubt it is a hurricane anymore, although it may likely still be a middle to high-end tropical storm just about to take on all extratropical entity features. It's now taking on the form of a frontal low, as evidenced by the dry slots in the inner core and to the west and the expanding windfield.

I expect the NHC to possibly downgrade this to a high-end tropical storm becoming extratropical in the upcoming 11PM EST advisory.


I agree, looks like an occluded cold-core low with a front extending southward.
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#965 Postby Brent » Mon Sep 11, 2006 9:33 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE FLORENCE ADVISORY NUMBER 34
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
1100 PM AST MON SEP 11 2006

...FLORENCE OVER OPEN WATERS...
...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS CONTINUE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC
COAST OF THE BAHAMAS... UNITED STATES... AND CANADA...

AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF BERMUDA HAS
DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BERMUDA.

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLORENCE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.9 WEST OR ABOUT 245
MILES...400 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 935 MILES...
1510 KM...SOUTHWEST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND.

FLORENCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR
...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. FLORENCE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FLORENCE IS A LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD
UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 974 MB...28.76 INCHES.

LARGE OCEAN SWELLS AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS... INCLUDING STRONG
RIP CURRENTS... ARE AFFECTING THE BAHAMAS... PORTIONS OF THE EAST
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SEE
STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES FOR DETAILS ON
COASTAL CONDITIONS.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...35.8 N...63.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA
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#966 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 11, 2006 9:33 pm

WTNT41 KNHC 120229
TCDAT1
HURRICANE FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 34
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
1100 PM EDT MON SEP 11 2006

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF FLORENCE HAS BEEN DETERIORATING WITH
ALMOST ALL OF THE CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND REMOVED FROM THE
CENTER. THE CLOUD PATTERN ALSO SUGGESTS THAT THE CYCLONE MIGHT BE
BEGINNING THE FIRST STAGES OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. DVORAK
SATELLITE ESTIMATES ARE DROPPING AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE
LOWERED TO 75 KT. FURTHER WEAKENING IS LIKELY AS THE HURRICANE
SLOWLY TAKES ON NON-TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT INTERACTS WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF THE CENTER.
HOWEVER...ALL GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THAT FLORENCE WILL BE A LARGE
POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE... AND SO DOES THE INTENSITY
FORECAST. ONE QUESTION MARK IS HOW FAST FLORENCE COMPLETES ITS
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. FSU PHASE-SPACE DIAGRAMS DERIVED FROM
GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS WOULD INDICATE FULL TRANSITION BY 3 DAYS. WE
ARE INDICATING FLORENCE TO BE EXTRATROPICAL BY 48 HOURS... JUST A
LITTLE FASTER THAN THESE MODELS BUT SEEMINGLY REASONABLE SINCE THE
HURRICANE IS ALREADY LOOKING A LITTLE LESS THAN TROPICAL.

FLORENCE IS SPEEDING UP TONIGHT... NOW MOVING 025/16. A
MIDDLE-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH LOCATED OVER CANADA INTO THE NORTHEAST
UNITED STATES SHOULD ACCELERATE THE HURRICANE TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD FOR 24 TO 36 HOURS. THEREAFTER... A TURN TO THE
NORTHEAST SHOULD OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM NEARS NEWFOUNDLAND. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THE EXTRATROPICAL
WIND RADII ARE A BLEND OF THE UKMET AND GFS FORECASTS.

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN FLORENCE AND A STRONG HIGH
CENTERED OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE STRONG
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ALONG AND OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE VERY ROUGH AND
DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WITH POTENTIALLY DEADLY RIP CURRENTS
ALONG NEARLY THE ENTIRE ATLANTIC EAST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE RADII OF 12-FT SEAS SHOWN IN THE FORECAST/
ADVISORY DOES NOT FULLY ACCOUNT FOR THE HUGE AREA OF HIGH WAVES
INDIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HURRICANE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/0300Z 35.8N 63.9W 75 KT
12HR VT 12/1200Z 37.8N 62.6W 70 KT
24HR VT 13/0000Z 40.6N 59.9W 65 KT
36HR VT 13/1200Z 44.0N 56.4W 60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 14/0000Z 46.5N 51.5W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 15/0000Z 49.5N 37.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 16/0000Z 52.0N 20.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 17/0000Z...ABSORBED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA

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#967 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Sep 11, 2006 9:38 pm

It appears as if the NHC is NOT mentioning the CHC watches and warnings. Therefore, one should use the CHC site for the official information regarding threats to land
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#968 Postby MiamiensisWx » Mon Sep 11, 2006 9:38 pm

Surprise... the intensity has not been lowered at the 11PM EST advisory. I believe it may be possibly due to extratropical transition beginning, which may expand the windfield and broaden and tighten the gradient somewhat, so this is probably why the NHC is being conservative and retaining the intensity. Still, I was expecting a very slight drop of the intensity due to satellite presentation, structure, and the slight negative influence of early stages of extratropical transition.

Lately, I've begun to lose some of my confidence in the NHC. They seem to have lost some of their touches on properly initializing the intensity and synoptics of some storms under certain situations in an increasingly common rate over the past recent three years to the present.

In fact, in terms of the current intensity, I agree more with the analysis below than the NHC. Very, very, VERY rare, if ever, that I say this...

Evil Jeremy wrote:Florence begins its transition into an extra-tropical system.

The TS Warning for the island nation of Bermuda will likely be discontinued later tonight.

Pressure is estimated to have risen to 979 MB, and winds have weakened to 80 MPH.

Florence is heading to the NW at 17 MPH, and this direction is expected to continue with an increase of speed.

Over the next day, we expect Florence to weaken into a Tropical Storm.

This is our last advisory on Florence, as it is becoming Extra-Tropical.


This is from another thread (Florence forecasts) posted by this poster, by the way.
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#969 Postby marcane_1973 » Mon Sep 11, 2006 9:43 pm

Goodbye Florence you weakling. After looking at videos and peoples comments that live on the island seems Florence sure didnt pack any punch at all. I wonder if this will be the most exciting Hurricane of the the 2006 season. :roll:
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#970 Postby Evil Jeremy » Mon Sep 11, 2006 9:46 pm

CapeVerdeWave wrote:Surprise... the intensity has not been lowered at the 11PM EST advisory. I believe it may be possibly due to extratropical transition beginning, which may expand the windfield and broaden and tighten the gradient somewhat, so this is probably why the NHC is being conservative and retaining the intensity. Still, I was expecting a very slight drop of the intensity due to satellite presentation, structure, and the slight negative influence of early stages of extratropical transition.

Lately, I've begun to lose some of my confidence in the NHC. They seem to have lost some of their touches on properly initializing the intensity and synoptics of some storms under certain situations in an increasingly common rate over the past recent three years to the present.

In fact, in terms of the current intensity, I agree more with the analysis below than the NHC. Very, very, VERY rare, if ever, that I say this...

Evil Jeremy wrote:Florence begins its transition into an extra-tropical system.

The TS Warning for the island nation of Bermuda will likely be discontinued later tonight.

Pressure is estimated to have risen to 979 MB, and winds have weakened to 80 MPH.

Florence is heading to the NE at 17 MPH, and this direction is expected to continue with an increase of speed.

Over the next day, we expect Florence to weaken into a Tropical Storm.

This is our last advisory on Florence, as it is becoming Extra-Tropical.


This is from another thread (Florence forecasts) posted by this poster, by the way.


thank you! best compliment i have ever recieved! oh, and i ment NE, not NW.
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#971 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Sep 11, 2006 9:49 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:It appears as if the NHC is NOT mentioning the CHC watches and warnings. Therefore, one should use the CHC site for the official information regarding threats to land


Either that or they haven't received them yet.
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#972 Postby MiamiensisWx » Mon Sep 11, 2006 9:53 pm

marcane_1973 wrote:Goodbye Florence you weakling. After looking at videos and peoples comments that live on the island seems Florence sure didnt pack any punch at all. I wonder if this will be the most exciting Hurricane of the the 2006 season. :roll:


Wow. More than half of your posts feature comments like this. Sorry, but if you don't like useful discussion and continue to do simple "dud" comments like this 99.9 percent of the time and nothing else, go to another board. Greatone would like to have you as his chief forecaster.

This comment adds NOTHING useful to the discussion. Nothing. Just your typical downplaying evident in your posting history.

Go to Wake Island and wait for the next typhoon, or go to Haiti and gleefully watch the death of another 10,000 and heavy wind damage in a tropical storm, in order to get your thrill of seeing enough destruction to satisfy your personal needs. I'm sure you'll enjoy it.

Moderators, feel free to delete this, but I felt this needed to be said. Comments like this add NOTHING useful to this, or any, board, and does nothing to educate others on synoptics and preparedness for each season.

Sorry for this. Please excuse this rant or delete as you see fit.

Back to Florence... I'm in agony and complete frustration. I am. It is not from wishcasting, either. Comments like that just need to GO!
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#973 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Sep 11, 2006 9:55 pm

One thing I think: this is a subtropical hurricane now. I do think it will not be fully extratropical for a while personally.
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#974 Postby MiamiensisWx » Mon Sep 11, 2006 9:57 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:One thing I think: this is a subtropical hurricane now. I do think it will not be fully extratropical for a while personally.


It's certainly likely close to having hurricane-force one-minute winds. I think, based on my evidence further up, that it's close, but slightly below, hurricane force, and that it's gathering extratropical characteristics.
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#975 Postby wxman57 » Mon Sep 11, 2006 10:57 pm

Satellite would indicate that it has very few tropical characteristics now. Doesn't look warm core any more. ET transition may be nearly complete, not just starting. Bye Florence!
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#976 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Sep 12, 2006 4:24 am

HURRICANE FLORENCE ADVISORY NUMBER 35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
500 AM AST TUE SEP 12 2006

...FLORENCE BEGINNING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM
BERMUDA...
...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS CONTINUE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC
COAST OF THE BAHAMAS... UNITED STATES... AND CANADA...

AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLORENCE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 37.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.4 WEST OR ABOUT 365 MILES...
585 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 810 MILES...1305 KM...
SOUTHWEST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND.

FLORENCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. FLORENCE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS FLORENCE TRANSITIONS INTO A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 415
MILES...665 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.

LARGE OCEAN SWELLS AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS... INCLUDING STRONG
RIP CURRENTS... ARE AFFECTING THE BAHAMAS... PORTIONS OF THE EAST
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SEE
STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES FOR DETAILS ON
COASTAL CONDITIONS.

REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...37.2 N...62.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/FRANKLIN


HURRICANE FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
500 AM EDT TUE SEP 12 2006

FLORENCE IS MOVING JUST A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TRACK WITH AN ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION OF 035/17. TRACK
GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
IS LITTLE CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF FLORENCE INDICATES THAT THE CYCLONE IS
IN THE EARLY TO MID STAGES OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE CLOUD
SHIELD HAS BECOME ASYMMETRICALLY DISPLACED NORTHWARD OF THE
CENTER...DRY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE CYCLONE HAS ERODED MOST OF THE INNER CORE DEEP
CONVECTION...AND FRONTAL-LIKE FEATURES ARE STARTING TO FORM.
ADDITIONALLY...AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS AND NEARBY SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT THE WIND FIELD IS EXPANDING. THE ONLY THING
KEEPING THIS SYSTEM TROPICAL IS A SMALL AND RAPIDLY DIMINISHING
AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION NORTH OF THE CENTER. GIVEN THE DEGRADATION
OF THE INNER CORE CONVECTION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO
65 KT. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION WILL NOT BE COMPLETE FOR ANOTHER DAY OR TWO.
HOWEVER...IF WHAT LITTLE REMAINS OF THE CORE CONVECTION CONTINUES
TO DISSIPATE...TRANSITION COULD OCCUR MUCH EARLIER.

GIVEN THE LOSS OF DEEP CONVECTION...BAROTROPIC FORCING
APPEARS TO BE WANING. HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW THAT FLORENCE IS STARTING TO INTERACT WITH AN UPSTREAM
MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS INTERACTION IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE BAROCLINIC FORCING AND AN INCREASE IN WINDS ON THE LARGER
SCALE EVEN AS THE INNER CORE CONVECTION AND WINDS DECAY.
ACCORDINGLY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN
INTENSITY DURING THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THEREAFTER...THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AND BE ABSORBED BY A SYSTEM TO
THE NORTH BY DAY 5.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN FLORENCE AND A HIGH CENTERED OVER
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA WILL LIKELY PRODUCE STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
ALONG AND OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AND THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE VERY ROUGH
AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WITH POTENTIALLY DEADLY RIP CURRENTS
ALONG NEARLY THE ENTIRE ATLANTIC EAST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/0900Z 37.2N 62.4W 65 KT
12HR VT 12/1800Z 39.4N 60.5W 60 KT
24HR VT 13/0600Z 42.7N 57.3W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 13/1800Z 45.7N 53.3W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 14/0600Z 47.6N 48.2W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 15/0600Z 49.5N 33.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 16/0600Z 53.0N 17.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 17/0600Z...ABSORBED

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/FRANKLIN


HURRICANE FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
0900 UTC TUE SEP 12 2006

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.2N 62.4W AT 12/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT.......120NE 120SE 150SW 120NW.
34 KT.......240NE 240SE 240SW 360NW.
12 FT SEAS..475NE 350SE 450SW 450NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.2N 62.4W AT 12/0900Z
AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.5N 63.0W

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 39.4N 60.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 150SW 120NW.
34 KT...240NE 240SE 240SW 360NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 42.7N 57.3W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...100NE 180SE 120SW 120NW.
34 KT...240NE 300SE 200SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 45.7N 53.3W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 200SE 200SW 90NW.
34 KT...240NE 300SE 300SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 47.6N 48.2W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 150SE 150SW 0NW.
34 KT...200NE 300SE 300SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 49.5N 33.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...180NE 360SE 360SW 240NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 53.0N 17.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z...ABSORBED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.2N 62.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/FRANKLIN
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#977 Postby senorpepr » Tue Sep 12, 2006 5:52 am

TPNT KGWC 120800
A. HURRICANE FLORENCE (SIX)
B. 12/0645Z (74)
C. 36.0N/9
D. 63.0W/9
E. FIVE/GOES12
F. XT3.0/4.0/W1.0/24HRS -12/0645Z-
G. IR/EIR

70/ PBO ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .40 USING THE LOG10
SPIRAL GIVING A DT OF 3.0 USING THE XT DVORAK TECHNIQUE.
FT IS BASED ON DT.

AODT: T2.2 (SHEAR)

BERNHARDT/HEATH
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#978 Postby conestogo_flood » Tue Sep 12, 2006 6:33 am

SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN
ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 3:14 AM ADT TUESDAY 12 SEPTEMBER 2006.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR:
=NEW= CHANNEL-PORT AUX BASQUES - BURGEO
=NEW= RAMEA - CONNAIGRE
=NEW= BURIN PENINSULA
=NEW= AVALON PENINSULA SOUTH
=NEW= AVALON PENINSULA NORTH
=NEW= ST. JOHN'S AND VICINITY
=NEW= CLARENVILLE AND VICINITY
=NEW= BONAVISTA PENINSULA.

SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40 KNOTS OR 70 KM/H ARE
POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY OVER THE ABOVE REGIONS. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO GUSTS TO NEAR 100 KM/H.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
==DISCUSSION==
HURRICANE FLORENCE WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN INTENSE POST-TROPICAL STORM
AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD NEWFOUNDLAND TODAY. SINCE THE STORM
WILL STILL POSSESS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS WHEN IT MOVES NEAR THE
AVALON PENINSULA ON WEDNESDAY..A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE EASTERN PENINSULAS OF NEWFOUNDLAND AND THE REMAINING
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE ISLAND. SUSTAINED WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM
FORCE..70 KM/H..ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THIS AREA ON WEDNESDAY
WITH GUSTS TO 100 KM/H. ADDITIONALLY..75 TO 125 MILLIMETRES OF RAIN
ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. CONSULT YOUR LOCAL PUBLIC FORECAST FOR
DETAILS.
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cycloneye
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#979 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 12, 2006 9:46 am

BULLETIN
HURRICANE FLORENCE ADVISORY NUMBER 36
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
1100 AM AST TUE SEP 12 2006

...FLORENCE BEGINNING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...MOVING TOWARD THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...

RESIDENTS IN EXTREME EASTERN CANADA SHOULD CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR
AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLORENCE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.2 WEST OR ABOUT 715
MILES...1155 KM...SOUTHWEST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND.

FLORENCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/HR...AND
SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO PASS JUST SOUTHEAST OF
NEWFOUNDLAND DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS FLORENCE TRANSITIONS INTO A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 415
MILES...665 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES.

LARGE OCEAN SWELLS AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS... INCLUDING STRONG
RIP CURRENTS... ARE AFFECTING THE BAHAMAS... PORTIONS OF THE EAST
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SEE
STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES FOR DETAILS ON
COASTAL CONDITIONS.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...38.2 N...61.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 23 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH

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#980 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 12, 2006 9:53 am

WTNT41 KNHC 121450
TCDAT1
HURRICANE FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 36
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 12 2006

FLORENCE APPEARS TO BE WELL INTO ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS BECOMING CONFINED TO THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE...ALONG THE PRE-EXISTING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF EASTERN CANADA. AS FLORENCE INTERACTS
WITH THIS FRONT...MOVES OVER COOLER WATER...AND CONTINUES TO DRAW
IN STABLE AIR...IT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL WITHIN 12
HOURS.

DESPITE THE LESS IMPRESSIVE APPEARANCE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS
MORNING...A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 0902 UTC...DETECTED SOME HURRICANE-
FORCE WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE PASS. BASED ON THIS...THE
INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 65 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. DUE TO INTERACTIONS
WITH A TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA...AND THE ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC
SOURCE OF ENERGY...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED AS
FLORENCE PASSES JUST SOUTHEAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO.

FLORENCE IS MOVING JUST A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TRACK WITH AN ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION OF 035/16. TRACK
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
IS CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

LARGE NORTHEASTERLY SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ROUGH SURF AND
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG MOST OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES AND THE BAHAMAS FOR ANOTHER FEW DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/1500Z 38.2N 61.2W 65 KT
12HR VT 13/0000Z 40.6N 58.7W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT 13/1200Z 43.9N 55.1W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 14/0000Z 46.5N 50.5W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 14/1200Z 47.8N 44.6W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 15/1200Z 49.5N 30.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 16/1200Z...ABSORBED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH

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