Hurricane Gordon - Cat. 3

Thunder44 · #42 Postby **Thunder44** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 12:44 pm

201
SXXX50 KNHC 111744
AF301 0107A CYCLONE HDOB 19 KNHC
1731 2217N 05555W 00306 0026 139 028 222 216 029 00342 0000000000
1731. 2219N 05554W 00303 0026 138 027 224 216 028 00339 0000000000
1732 2220N 05553W 00306 0027 136 026 226 216 027 00342 0000000000
1732. 2221N 05552W 00306 0027 142 025 226 220 026 00342 0000000000
1733 2222N 05550W 00304 0027 141 025 224 218 025 00340 0000000000
1733. 2223N 05549W 00305 0027 141 025 222 216 025 00342 0000000000
1734 2224N 05548W 00305 0028 140 025 222 212 025 00343 0000000000
1734. 2225N 05547W 00306 0029 139 026 224 204 027 00344 0000000000
1735 2226N 05546W 00305 0028 141 024 222 198 025 00342 0000000000
1735. 2227N 05544W 00304 0029 136 023 220 214 023 00342 0000000000
1736 2228N 05543W 00305 0028 143 023 222 218 024 00343 0000000000
1736. 2230N 05542W 00305 0028 144 024 220 216 025 00343 0000000000
1737 2231N 05541W 00304 0028 145 024 218 218 024 00341 0000000000
1737. 2232N 05540W 00304 0028 148 023 216 212 024 00342 0000000000
1738 2233N 05538W 00304 0028 149 025 210 208 026 00342 0000000000
1738. 2234N 05537W 00308 0028 149 027 210 208 028 00345 0000000000
1739 2236N 05537W 00305 0027 147 028 212 208 029 00342 0000000000
1739. 2237N 05538W 00303 0028 144 026 226 204 027 00341 0000000000
1740 2237N 05540W 00305 0028 144 028 222 208 030 00342 0000000000
1740. 2238N 05542W 00304 0028 142 028 218 216 028 00341 0000000000

Thunder44 · #43 Postby **Thunder44** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 12:45 pm

Buck · #44 Postby **Buck** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 12:48 pm

Yep... we might see Gordon at 45mph in his first advisory.

Thunder44 · #45 Postby **Thunder44** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 12:55 pm

715
SXXX50 KNHC 111755
AF301 0107A CYCLONE HDOB 20 KNHC
1741 2238N 05544W 00305 0028 141 029 220 212 030 00343 0000000000
1741. 2239N 05545W 00306 0028 139 028 222 202 029 00343 0000000000
1742 2239N 05547W 00304 0027 138 026 220 210 027 00341 0000000000
1742. 2239N 05549W 00305 0027 136 026 220 214 027 00342 0000000000
1743 2239N 05551W 00305 0026 136 027 222 216 027 00340 0000000000
1743. 2239N 05553W 00302 0026 133 027 220 218 027 00338 0000000000
1744 2239N 05555W 00306 0025 135 028 220 218 029 00340 0000000000
1744. 2239N 05556W 00305 0025 132 027 220 220 028 00340 0000000000
1745 2239N 05558W 00306 0025 133 029 220 216 029 00340 0000000000
1745. 2239N 05600W 00304 0025 131 028 220 218 029 00339 0000000000
1746 2239N 05602W 00305 0025 130 028 220 218 028 00339 0000000000
1746. 2239N 05604W 00305 0025 127 027 220 218 028 00340 0000000000
1747 2239N 05606W 00305 0024 122 027 220 220 028 00339 0000000000
1747. 2239N 05608W 00305 0024 123 029 222 216 030 00339 0000000000
1748 2239N 05610W 00304 0024 124 028 226 216 029 00338 0000000000
1748. 2239N 05612W 00305 0024 123 028 226 212 029 00338 0000000000
1749 2240N 05613W 00305 0023 121 028 226 214 029 00338 0000000000
1749. 2240N 05615W 00304 0023 123 029 226 212 029 00336 0000000000
1750 2240N 05617W 00306 0022 123 029 228 210 030 00338 0000000000
1750. 2240N 05619W 00305 0022 122 029 230 210 031 00337 0000000000

#46 Postby **wxman57** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 12:55 pm

Thunder44 wrote:Here's the table from P.K.'s post:

Flight level--------------Eyewall-----------Outer vortex (convection)-----Outer vortex (not in convection)
700hPa (3,000m)--------0.90------------------0.85------------------------------------0.80
850hPa (1,500m)--------0.80------------------0.80------------------------------------0.75
925hPa (750m)-----------0.75------------------0.75------------------------------------0.75
300m-------------------------0.80------------------0.80------------------------------------0.80

I don't think that those reduction factors are correct for 300m (1000 ft). The graphic I have online (from the NHC) says that the reduction for 300m is just about 30% (0.7) not 0.8. Of course, it assumes that there is an eyewall. At 300 ft, the reduction appears to be 0.8. At an 0.7 reduction, a FL wind of 49 kts would be required for 34kts at the surface. \

Thunder44 · #47 Postby **Thunder44** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 12:57 pm

#48 Postby **P.K.** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 1:01 pm

Those reductions are taken straight from a paper writen by James Franklin and referenced on the NHC site.

Windsurfer_NYC · #49 Postby **Windsurfer_NYC** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 1:02 pm

wxman57 wrote:
Thunder44 wrote:Here's the table from P.K.'s post:

Flight level--------------Eyewall-----------Outer vortex (convection)-----Outer vortex (not in convection)
700hPa (3,000m)--------0.90------------------0.85------------------------------------0.80
850hPa (1,500m)--------0.80------------------0.80------------------------------------0.75
925hPa (750m)-----------0.75------------------0.75------------------------------------0.75
300m-------------------------0.80------------------0.80------------------------------------0.80

I don't think that those reduction factors are correct for 300m (1000 ft). The graphic I have online (from the NHC) says that the reduction for 300m is just about 30% (0.7) not 0.8. At 300 ft, the reduction appears to be 0.8. At an 0.7 reduction, a FL wind of 49 kts would be required for 34kts at the surface. But the plane is in the weaker quadrant now, so I suspect they'll find TS-force winds soon.

The table above agrees with the table in Franklin et al., Weather & Forecasting, Feb 2003, Volume 18, pg 39

#50 Postby **wxman57** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 1:02 pm

P.K. wrote:Those reductions are taken straight from a paper writen by James Franklin and referenced on the NHC site.

The graphic above is also from the NHC site. I "borrowed" it from their current PowerPoint presentations. Clearly, there are a number of variables to consider when converting FL winds to surface winds. Dry air intrusions, lack of convection can lead to less downward transfer of winds. Perhaps they'll get some surface measurements with a dropsonde. Or since there is limited convection, maybe they can drop down to 10m for a real insteresting FL wind pass. ;-)

Thunder44 · #51 Postby **Thunder44** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 1:06 pm

091
SXXX50 KNHC 111804
AF301 0107A CYCLONE HDOB 21 KNHC
1751 2240N 05621W 00304 0022 122 029 230 208 030 00336 0000000000
1751. 2240N 05623W 00307 0022 120 028 230 210 029 00338 0000000000
1752 2240N 05625W 00304 0022 121 030 230 206 032 00335 0000000000
1752. 2240N 05627W 00304 0021 118 030 230 206 031 00335 0000000000
1753 2240N 05629W 00306 0022 114 029 230 208 030 00337 0000000000
1753. 2240N 05631W 00304 0022 114 030 230 208 031 00335 0000000000
1754 2240N 05632W 00305 0021 115 030 230 208 031 00335 0000000000
1754. 2240N 05634W 00314 0023 113 031 226 210 032 00346 0000000000
1755 2240N 05637W 00304 0024 113 031 230 212 031 00337 0000000000
1755. 2240N 05639W 00306 0024 112 031 230 212 032 00339 0000000000
1756 2240N 05641W 00305 0024 110 031 230 210 032 00338 0000000000
1756. 2240N 05643W 00305 0023 107 029 230 216 029 00338 0000000000
1757 2240N 05645W 00304 0023 107 029 230 214 031 00337 0000000000
1757. 2240N 05647W 00305 0024 106 030 230 214 030 00338 0000000000
1758 2241N 05650W 00305 0024 109 028 230 218 029 00339 0000000000
1758. 2241N 05652W 00304 0024 105 028 228 216 030 00338 0000000000
1759 2241N 05654W 00305 0024 102 028 230 214 029 00339 0000000000
1759. 2241N 05656W 00305 0024 100 027 230 214 028 00339 0000000000
1800 2241N 05658W 00305 0024 098 027 230 218 027 00339 0000000000
1800. 2241N 05700W 00305 0024 096 027 228 220 029 00338 0000000000

Thunder44 · #52 Postby **Thunder44** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 1:08 pm

#53 Postby **P.K.** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 1:11 pm

That is very similar to Figure 10 in the above paper for dropsondes within 5.6km of the flight level radius of maximum winds , which also includes a couple of other profiles. As I've put in that post though it is only a guide and can be changed in dropsondes indicate it should as happened yesterday with Florence. :wink:

Thunder44 · #54 Postby **Thunder44** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 1:11 pm

wxman57 wrote:
P.K. wrote:Those reductions are taken straight from a paper writen by James Franklin and referenced on the NHC site.

The graphic above is also from the NHC site. I "borrowed" it from their current PowerPoint presentations. Clearly, there are a number of variables to consider when converting FL winds to surface winds. Dry air intrusions, lack of convection can lead to less downward transfer of winds. Perhaps they'll get some surface measurements with a dropsonde. Or since there is limited convection, maybe they can drop down to 10m for a real insteresting FL wind pass.

Well NRL now has "Gordon", so as interesting as this has been to read it's become moot now.

Thunder44 · #55 Postby **Thunder44** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 1:14 pm

I haven't seen any drospondes, so I'm assuming they are just using the standard reducution, whatever that really is.

Thunder44 · #56 Postby **Thunder44** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 1:16 pm

939
SXXX50 KNHC 111814
AF301 0107A CYCLONE HDOB 22 KNHC
1801 2241N 05703W 00304 0024 094 026 226 220 027 00337 0000000000
1801. 2241N 05705W 00306 0023 094 025 226 218 025 00339 0000000000
1802 2241N 05707W 00307 0023 091 026 226 216 027 00340 0000000000
1802. 2241N 05709W 00304 0024 096 026 226 216 026 00337 0000000000
1803 2241N 05711W 00306 0024 095 025 230 214 025 00339 0000000000
1803. 2241N 05714W 00305 0024 091 024 230 218 024 00338 0000000000
1804 2241N 05716W 00304 0023 088 024 230 218 025 00337 0000000000
1804. 2241N 05718W 00304 0023 093 026 230 214 027 00336 0000000000
1805 2241N 05720W 00305 0023 093 026 230 216 027 00337 0000000000
1805. 2241N 05722W 00305 0022 095 027 230 214 027 00336 0000000000
1806 2241N 05725W 00305 0022 096 027 232 210 027 00336 0000000000
1806. 2241N 05727W 00305 0022 092 027 234 206 027 00337 0000000000
1807 2241N 05729W 00305 0022 089 028 230 216 028 00336 0000000000
1807. 2242N 05731W 00306 0022 094 027 232 216 029 00337 0000000000
1808 2242N 05734W 00304 0022 093 027 230 216 027 00335 0000000000
1808. 2242N 05736W 00305 0022 090 026 232 214 027 00337 0000000000
1809 2242N 05738W 00305 0022 089 025 232 216 026 00336 0000000000
1809. 2242N 05740W 00304 0023 090 023 230 216 023 00336 0000000000
1810 2242N 05743W 00305 0023 089 021 230 218 022 00338 0000000000
1810. 2242N 05745W 00304 0023 086 020 230 222 021 00337 0000000000

Thunder44 · #57 Postby **Thunder44** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 1:17 pm

Thunder44 · #58 Postby **Thunder44** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 1:29 pm

501
SXXX50 KNHC 111824
AF301 0107A CYCLONE HDOB 23 KNHC
1811 2242N 05747W 00306 0023 086 019 232 222 019 00338 0000000000
1811. 2242N 05749W 00305 0023 084 020 232 220 020 00338 0000000000
1812 2242N 05751W 00304 0023 087 022 234 218 022 00337 0000000000
1812. 2242N 05753W 00305 0023 089 021 234 218 022 00337 0000000000
1813 2242N 05756W 00304 0023 087 019 236 220 019 00336 0000000000
1813. 2242N 05758W 00306 0023 087 018 236 218 018 00338 0000000000
1814 2242N 05800W 00304 0023 087 018 236 216 018 00336 0000000000
1814. 2242N 05802W 00304 0023 082 018 238 218 018 00337 0000000000
1815 2242N 05804W 00305 0023 078 018 240 218 018 00337 0000000000
1815. 2242N 05806W 00305 0023 073 017 240 222 018 00338 0000000000
1816 2242N 05809W 00304 0023 071 016 240 222 016 00336 0000000000
1816. 2242N 05811W 00305 0023 073 015 240 220 015 00338 0000000000
1817 2242N 05813W 00305 0023 075 014 240 218 015 00337 0000000000
1817. 2242N 05815W 00305 0023 073 014 240 218 014 00337 0000000000
1818 2242N 05817W 00305 0024 078 015 240 222 015 00338 0000000000
1818. 2242N 05819W 00305 0024 077 014 240 222 014 00339 0000000000
1819 2242N 05821W 00306 0024 076 015 240 224 015 00339 0000000000
1819. 2243N 05823W 00303 0024 070 013 240 226 014 00337 0000000000
1820 2243N 05826W 00305 0024 071 012 240 226 012 00338 0000000000
1820. 2243N 05828W 00305 0024 069 011 240 226 011 00338 0000000000

Thunder44 · #59 Postby **Thunder44** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 1:30 pm

Thunder44 · #60 Postby **Thunder44** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 1:32 pm

501
URNT14 KNHC 111743
SUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
INBOUND
LAT LON jHHH TTDD ddfff
01205 10583 10014 12421 31011
02206 20581 20013 22423 31013
03207 30578 30013 32422 32013
04208 40576 40012 42422 32014
05210 50574 50011 52321 31020
06212 60572 60010 62222 32032
MF212 M0572 MF034
OBS 01 AT 16:34:30Z
OBS 06 AT 16:58:30Z
OBS 01 SFC WND 29010
OUTBOUND
LAT LON jHHH TTDD ddfff
01215 10568 10008 12222 16038
02217 20566 20011 22121 13046
03218 30564 30013 32221 13041
04220 40562 40014 42222 13035
05222 50560 50015 52221 14029
06224 60558 60015 62222 14025
07226 70556 70015 72020 15026
MF216 M0566 MF047
OBS 01 AT 17:08:10Z
OBS 07 AT 17:37:50Z
OBS 07 SFC WND 14025
AF301 0107A CYCLONE OB 06

Hurricane Gordon - Cat. 3

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