Hurricane Helene - Cat. 3

#21 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Sun Sep 10, 2006 3:38 pm

These are all the last frame of the 12Z models:

CMC
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... hour=144hr

GFS
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=144hr

MM5FSU 120 Hours
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/mm5fsutc ... hour=120hr

NOGAPS
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/nogapstc ... hour=144hr

UKMET 138 Hours
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... hour=138hr

#22 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Sep 10, 2006 3:44 pm

SouthFloridawx wrote:These are all the last frame of the 12Z models:

CMC
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... hour=144hr

GFS
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=144hr

MM5FSU 120 Hours
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/mm5fsutc ... hour=120hr

NOGAPS
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/nogapstc ... hour=144hr

UKMET 138 Hours
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... hour=138hr

This is what is called a consensus of the models in terms of developing this system, but Nogaps the more weak in doing so.

#23 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Sep 10, 2006 7:28 pm

00:00z Full Disk Image

The circulation looks good tonight,although convection is not fully on top of it as it's mainly ahead.

superfly · #24 Postby **superfly** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 1:09 am

The wave all the models like is emerging from Africa.

Zardoz · #25 Postby **Zardoz** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 2:00 am

superfly wrote:The wave all the models like is emerging from Africa.

It's a big fella. We'll see what comes of it:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

kenl01 · #26 Postby **kenl01** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 4:18 am

Well, if correct, the GFS takes this system out to sea within a matter of days.
Looks like allot of fishes coming up :wink:

Hyperstorm · #27 Postby **Hyperstorm** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 6:45 am

Big area of low pressure appears to be ready to lift off as soon as it hits those mean September waters. This system has a very well-defined mid to likely low level circulation which currently has strong thunderstorms over it.

If it manages to move over water during our (USA) evening hours, it would have a better chance to sustain itself over water. The theory I have is that it would have just exploded convection over land during the early afternoon hours keeping the pressure low. When it makes it offshore during the nighttime hours, it will have an opportunity to develop new convection over water (nocturnal maxima). Those two consecutive bursts should help this system reach official designation soon thereafter (24-36 hours).

2006 is peaking...

HurricaneMaster_PR · #28 Postby **HurricaneMaster_PR** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 7:18 am

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON SEP 11 2006

A WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE AND LOW-MID LEVEL LOW PRES SYSTEM IS
MOVING OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS E OF 18W FROM 10N-15N.

#29 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 7:27 am

12:00z Full Disk Image

This is the 12:00z image which shows an impressive system about to hit completly the water,with a well defined surface to mid low pressure around 12n.

#30 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 8:04 am

fish on this system too? What happened to the strong Azores High we had earlier in the hurricane season?

Josephine96 · #31 Postby **Josephine96** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 8:19 am

Tropical Depression #8? Perhaps wanna be Helene.. if Gordon doesn't form 1st..

#32 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 8:21 am

Josephine96 · #33 Postby **Josephine96** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 8:22 am

looks like a decent blob of convection..

#34 Postby **skysummit** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 8:37 am

It sure does have nice curvature to it already. I'm also noticing curvature in the convection near 34/35 W.

#35 Postby **HenkL** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 8:44 am

Todays forecast from the NAMMA project:

"Forecast for Monday Sept 11
September 11th, 2006

A strong AEW exists just inland, primarily over Senegal. Meteosat imagery shows strong convection ahead of the wave, and the wave circulation center is at approximately 17N 12W. The wave exhibits strong cylconic circulation in the 925mb isotachs and the wave axis is clearly visible in the 700mb level. Strong winds (~22 m/s) exist in the 700mb level above the area that the center of circulation is found in the lower levels. Meteosat imagery also shows a well defined dust layer to the north and northeast extending to north of the Cape Verde islands. A cloud band proceeds the dust layer and helps to distinguish the boundary. Currently, the ITCZ is also well defined in the Meteosat imagery and appears more active in convection than what has been observed recently.

ECMWF, UKmet, and GFS all show the wave exiting the coast early tomorrow morning. ECMWF shows the wave a little ahead of the other models, and may even be initialized a little too far to the west currently. At 12Z tomorrow, GFS shows the center of circulation just off the coast of Dakar at 14N, 20W. By Midnight Wednesday the wave progresses to the west and continues to strengthen. Fight time on Wednesday the models are merging with current convection and amplifying the wave greatly. Isotachs suggest the center of circulaion is around 15N 22W. UK met at this time has the wave blowing up into a major hurricane, GFS also tends to strengthen the wave greatly. These suggestions are taken lightly and mainly only used for center of circulation predictions. By flight time Wednesday the wave is just south of the Cape Verde islands. The belief that this AEW will not only hold together but strengthen throughout the forecast time all the way to a last flight on Thursday is held in confidence."

LaBreeze · #36 Postby **LaBreeze** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 9:42 am

So, is this one expected to be a fish in the Atlantic also, as its two predecessors are? Any chance of this one heading toward the U.S. mainland in any way?

Hurricaneman · #37 Postby **Hurricaneman** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 10:00 am

Its too early to tell

HurricaneMaster_PR · #38 Postby **HurricaneMaster_PR** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 10:10 am

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT MON SEP 11 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
FLORENCE...LOCATED ABOUT 60 MILES NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA...AND
ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN...LOCATED ABOUT 435 MILES
NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS EMERGING FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA.
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OVER THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

#39 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 10:12 am

That was fast!!! They are not waiting for the system to come off completely before calling for development!!! :uarrow:

#40 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 11, 2006 10:14 am

Ir's rare to see NHC saying this about a system that still is half on the water and half inland Arica.

Hurricane Helene - Cat. 3

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