Hurricane Helene - Cat. 3
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- gatorcane
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I just can't see a turn NW with Helene in the short-term. Just don't buy into it at all....if you look at the flow on this IR loop, its all E to W until the islands. There is nothing that I can see that would cause here to move NW.
I really think it will be a close call for the islands.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html
I really think it will be a close call for the islands.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html
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gatorcane wrote:I just can't see a turn NW with Helene in the short-term. Just don't buy into it at all....if you look at the flow on this IR loop, its all E to W until the islands. There is nothing that I can see that would cause here to move NW.
I really think it will be a close call for the islands.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html
I believe by this time tomorrow Helene will still be moving WNW, but she will have noticeably gained some latitude. By Saturday night, at the latest, she'll cross 20N.
As far as the islands are concerned, Helene may kick up some surf.
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- AtlanticWind
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gatorcane wrote:I just can't see a turn NW with Helene in the short-term. Just don't buy into it at all....if you look at the flow on this IR loop, its all E to W until the islands. There is nothing that I can see that would cause here to move NW.
I really think it will be a close call for the islands.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html
I agree , looking at awater vapor loop I think she will continue moving just a little north of west for the next 3 to 4 days, after that your guess is as good as mine. Also the 00z nogaps looks like it might be trending more west.
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- AtlanticWind
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- AtlanticWind
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gatorcane wrote:AtlanticWind wrote:https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/wxmap_PUBLIC_area.cgi?area=ngp_atlantic
thanks..hmmmm.....is the NOGAPS on to something here?
When I look at NOGAPS, it has the storm turning NW and then N.
If I'm looking at the right link:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/nogapstc ... =Animation
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- AtlanticWind
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So far, the models seem to still agree in general, but differ quite a bit in timing. As has already been pointed out, NoGaps has a 120hr position still slightly below 20N. Canadian is much faster in its turn showing Helene at about 30N 59W at T120hr. GFS is in between at around 27N 52W. Haven't seen UK yet.
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- AtlanticWind
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- AtlanticWind
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https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/w ... rp&tau=144
Nogaps at 144 hours . not far off the islands.
Nogaps at 144 hours . not far off the islands.
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- SouthFloridawx
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Ok just to give you a good example of why Helene is not going to affect the United States:
The picture below I have posted with the two circles on it shows us where the 0 degree lines are. Granted this is at the 850mb level but, as you'll see in the next picture after this one why this trough is going to definitely take Helene out to sea.
Now look at 120 Hours from now
We see there that the 0 degree line has dropped much farther south.
Next we'll take a look at the current trough and the amount of westerlies currently coming out into the Atlantic. Helene may end up missing this first trough but, definitely not the second.
Here is the current 300mb wind/heights
Notice that there aren't too many west to east winds to break down the ridge.
Now here is what the trough is going to look that is expected to drive Helene out away from the US.
Ok here we see massive amounts of westerlies pushing off the east coast out into the Atlantic. It's not a matter of maybe the trough will move farther northeast or this or that. It would have to be rare (I could be wrong) for GFS to prog such a trough and it not materialize.
The picture below I have posted with the two circles on it shows us where the 0 degree lines are. Granted this is at the 850mb level but, as you'll see in the next picture after this one why this trough is going to definitely take Helene out to sea.
![Image](http://img219.imageshack.us/img219/2981/gfs850000san2.gif)
Now look at 120 Hours from now
![Image](http://img219.imageshack.us/img219/6172/gfs850120sqm7.gif)
We see there that the 0 degree line has dropped much farther south.
Next we'll take a look at the current trough and the amount of westerlies currently coming out into the Atlantic. Helene may end up missing this first trough but, definitely not the second.
Here is the current 300mb wind/heights
![Image](http://img220.imageshack.us/img220/8655/gfs300000smq6.gif)
Notice that there aren't too many west to east winds to break down the ridge.
Now here is what the trough is going to look that is expected to drive Helene out away from the US.
![Image](http://img179.imageshack.us/img179/671/gfs300168sdn9.gif)
Ok here we see massive amounts of westerlies pushing off the east coast out into the Atlantic. It's not a matter of maybe the trough will move farther northeast or this or that. It would have to be rare (I could be wrong) for GFS to prog such a trough and it not materialize.
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- AtlanticWind
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sma10 wrote:AtlanticWind wrote:https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/wxmap_single.cgi?area=ngp_atlantic&dtg=2006091500&prod=prp&tau=120
check out this link.
Note how in the NoGaps panel that Helene has reached the western extent of the ridge at 120hr position.
Yes , it could begin to recurve at that point but it is still 5-6 days out and the pattern could be a little different by then.
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AtlanticWind wrote:https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/wxmap_single.cgi?area=ngp_atlantic&dtg=2006091500&prod=prp&tau=144
Nogaps at 144 hours . not far off the islands.
Looks to me that if that verifies then that is about the point she will begin lifting northward fairly dramatically, and then eventually NE. Perhaps she gets close to the islands, but after that she is gone. Then again, I'm a rank amateur so what do I know?
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