Hurricane Helene - Cat. 3

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
sma10
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1709
Joined: Tue Aug 02, 2005 1:13 pm

#961 Postby sma10 » Fri Sep 15, 2006 8:49 am

SouthFloridawx wrote:
sma10 wrote:Seriously, though, the NoGaps is getting an awful lot of love this morning!


yes the Outlier is getting a lot of love this morning.


What's going to happen if the 12Z NoGaps shows something different?!
0 likes   

User avatar
SouthFloridawx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8344
Age: 45
Joined: Tue Jul 26, 2005 1:16 am
Location: Sarasota, FL
Contact:

#962 Postby SouthFloridawx » Fri Sep 15, 2006 8:52 am

sma10 wrote:
SouthFloridawx wrote:
sma10 wrote:Seriously, though, the NoGaps is getting an awful lot of love this morning!


yes the Outlier is getting a lot of love this morning.


What's going to happen if the 12Z NoGaps shows something different?!


Eventually as the Trough in the West moves east over this weekend all the models should correct and show in 5 days a System moving to the north then to the Northeast.
0 likes   

sma10
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1709
Joined: Tue Aug 02, 2005 1:13 pm

#963 Postby sma10 » Fri Sep 15, 2006 8:52 am

caneman wrote:Don't think NOGAPS is that out to lunch. Check out the 06GFS. It shows a real slow crawl West towards end of run before being ejected out. That is all NOGAPS might be showing at end of that run and then later it could be ejected out.


I agree Caneman. In fact, it looks like the only difference between the NoGaps and the others is just a matter of timing.

The NoGaps may end up being correct. But, even if it is, it's really not likely to make any difference in any sensible way.
0 likes   

curtadams
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1118
Joined: Sun Aug 28, 2005 7:57 pm
Location: Orange, California
Contact:

#964 Postby curtadams » Fri Sep 15, 2006 8:53 am

sma10 wrote:
curtadams wrote:One thing about these occasional west-run outliers - they all have Helene quite weak. The last time the UKM did it it had Helene never go below 1000 mb. In that NOGAPS run, Helene is about 1005 mb towards the end. So the NOGAPS is saying that if Helene is a wussy, fizzly TS, she'll make it to N of the islands (but still at sea) before the monster front bats her out of the park- which I find believable.


That is true, Curt, but I have found that the global models do not handle central pressure in tropical entities very well.


Oh, absolutely. The point I was making was that the only way land will even see some cirrus clouds is if Helene stays weak. The globals can't tell us whether Helene will be weak or strong, but they can tell us (kind of) what the tracks will be in each case. Right now they're saying if she strengthens any she'll go twist up the seaweed in the Sargasso Sea and if she struggles and fizzles she might make it to within a few hundred miles of land.
0 likes   

User avatar
drezee
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3642
Joined: Mon Jun 09, 2003 12:49 pm
Location: FL

#965 Postby drezee » Fri Sep 15, 2006 8:55 am

CUrrent position 15.5N 40.5W

Too far N 72 hours ago but 24 hour forecast was too far S. Maybe another bend to the E at 1800z

72 hours ago

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT (AL082006) ON 20060912 1200 UTC

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060914 1200 060915 1200 060916 1200 060917 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.7N 35.0W 16.7N 40.5W 19.8N 43.4W 21.4N 44.5W
BAMM 13.9N 37.3W 14.4N 45.0W 15.7N 49.6W 16.8N 51.3W
A98E 13.3N 35.9W 14.1N 41.1W 15.4N 45.0W 17.9N 47.8W
LBAR 13.6N 37.8W 13.5N 45.9W 16.3N 47.6W .0N .0W
SHIP 63KTS 82KTS 95KTS 103KTS
DSHP 63KTS 82KTS 95KTS 103KTS


48 hours ago

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT (AL082006) ON 20060913 1200 UTC

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060915 1200 060916 1200 060917 1200 060918 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.9N 36.1W 21.0N 37.6W 20.0N 36.2W 17.1N 34.9W
BAMM 18.1N 39.0W 21.3N 44.0W 22.9N 48.7W 23.6N 52.7W
A98E 14.6N 39.6W 16.9N 44.3W 19.6N 47.9W 22.7N 50.2W
LBAR 14.7N 40.4W 17.5N 45.1W 20.6N 48.6W 22.2N 50.3W
SHIP 64KTS 80KTS 84KTS 84KTS
DSHP 64KTS 80KTS 84KTS 84KTS


24 hours ago

TROPICAL STORM HELENE (AL082006) ON 20060914 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060914 1200 060915 0000 060915 1200 060916 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.3N 36.0W 13.8N 38.3W 14.7N 40.1W 16.2N 41.3W
BAMM 13.3N 36.0W 14.0N 38.3W 15.0N 40.2W 16.5N 41.5W
A98E 13.3N 36.0W 13.5N 40.0W 13.2N 43.5W 12.8N 46.3W
LBAR 13.3N 36.0W 13.9N 39.3W 14.7N 42.5W 15.4N 45.4W
SHIP 40KTS 51KTS 61KTS 71KTS
DSHP 40KTS 51KTS 61KTS 71KTS
0 likes   

curtadams
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1118
Joined: Sun Aug 28, 2005 7:57 pm
Location: Orange, California
Contact:

#966 Postby curtadams » Fri Sep 15, 2006 8:56 am

sma10 wrote:What's going to happen if the 12Z NoGaps shows something different?!

The a different model may get a lot of love! The UKM showed a late turn last night but I don't see intimations of its psychic abilities now that it's on the east end of the guidance :lol:
0 likes   

sma10
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1709
Joined: Tue Aug 02, 2005 1:13 pm

#967 Postby sma10 » Fri Sep 15, 2006 8:57 am

curtadams wrote:
sma10 wrote:
curtadams wrote:One thing about these occasional west-run outliers - they all have Helene quite weak. The last time the UKM did it it had Helene never go below 1000 mb. In that NOGAPS run, Helene is about 1005 mb towards the end. So the NOGAPS is saying that if Helene is a wussy, fizzly TS, she'll make it to N of the islands (but still at sea) before the monster front bats her out of the park- which I find believable.


That is true, Curt, but I have found that the global models do not handle central pressure in tropical entities very well.


Oh, absolutely. The point I was making was that the only way land will even see some cirrus clouds is if Helene stays weak. The globals can't tell us whether Helene will be weak or strong, but they can tell us (kind of) what the tracks will be in each case. Right now they're saying if she strengthens any she'll go twist up the seaweed in the Sargasso Sea and if she struggles and fizzles she might make it to within a few hundred miles of land.


I think the struggle, fizzle option is rapidly becoming the unlikely scenario as Helene starts to look a lot better this morning. (I can pretty much assure you that the banner headline for the 11am public advisory will be something like "Helene now strengthening in the Atlantic")
0 likes   


Return to “2006”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 5 guests