Hurricane Helene - Cat. 3

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CrazyC83
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#61 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Sep 11, 2006 2:14 pm

skysummit wrote:sma10...I understand what CrazyC83 is saying. He's not saying it will be a storm like Katrina by any means. Katrina is THE name that was remembered last season. What he's saying is Helene may be THE name we remember from this season. I kind of agree. I, also, felt before the season began that Helene would be the big on of 2006. Nothing scientific..just the way the name sounds :)


Exactly. That is what I mean.
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#62 Postby curtadams » Mon Sep 11, 2006 2:23 pm

This storm might be memorable for intensity or size - or even a hit on the CV islands. But the Atlantic high is an Azores high this year, and that makes it virtually impossible for any CV storms to hit the US, unless it's very, very low (which this one isn't). Low-level winds will blow anything along Florence's path.
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#63 Postby sma10 » Mon Sep 11, 2006 2:24 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
skysummit wrote:sma10...I understand what CrazyC83 is saying. He's not saying it will be a storm like Katrina by any means. Katrina is THE name that was remembered last season. What he's saying is Helene may be THE name we remember from this season. I kind of agree. I, also, felt before the season began that Helene would be the big on of 2006. Nothing scientific..just the way the name sounds :)


Exactly. That is what I mean.


Okay, cool.

I do disagree with your prediction, though. People very rarely remember names of storms that recurve out into the Central Atlantic (no matter how strong they become)

Right now the name people will remember from this season will be Ernesto, unless something forms a lot closer to home in the next couple of months. But this is really not too unusual. Not every season is a blockbuster.
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#64 Postby skysummit » Mon Sep 11, 2006 2:29 pm

No one said every season was a blockbuster. By the way, who's Ernesto? :wink:
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#65 Postby sma10 » Mon Sep 11, 2006 2:37 pm

skysummit wrote:No one said every season was a blockbuster. By the way, who's Ernesto? :wink:


I never said that anyone said every season was a blockbuster ;)

I was just commenting on the fact that it's not unusual to have a quiet season. And believe me, there have been plenty of people who have been moaning and complaining about this season.

But I realize that there are many young members on this board who have been just a teensy bit spoiled by the uber-activity of the past decade. Sometimes there are actually seasons where there are ZERO memorable names. In fact if we were still in the doldrums of the 70's and early 80's, this board would most likely not exist!
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#66 Postby skysummit » Mon Sep 11, 2006 2:41 pm

I agree sma10. I, for one, am very pleased with the way this season is going. The only downside to it is I won't have nearly the amount of overtime I had last season! ...however, the plus side to it is people will be able to keep their homes :D
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#67 Postby Thunder44 » Mon Sep 11, 2006 2:51 pm

Latest image as about hour or so ago. It doesn't look as good as it did earlier:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/IR4/20.jpg
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#68 Postby hial2 » Mon Sep 11, 2006 2:54 pm

skysummit wrote:I agree sma10. I, for one, am very pleased with the way this season is going. The only downside to it is I won't have nearly the amount of overtime I had last season! ...however, the plus side to it is people will be able to keep their homes :D


......if the insurance companies don't continue to raise their rates.... :grr:
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#69 Postby SouthFloridawx » Mon Sep 11, 2006 2:56 pm

12Z Runs
CMC
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... hour=144hr

GFS
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=144hr

FSUMM5
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/mm5fsutc ... hour=120hr

NOGAPS
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/nogapstc ... hour=144hr

UKMET
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... hour=144hr
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#70 Postby HenkL » Mon Sep 11, 2006 3:36 pm

Latest ECMWF 12Z run has a low on 20N 30W by that time. They don't have any rapid developing system any more.
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#71 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 11, 2006 4:12 pm

ABNT20 KNHC 112108
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT MON SEP 11 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
FLORENCE...LOCATED ABOUT 145 MILES NORTH OF BERMUDA...AND
ON RECENTLY UPGRADED TROPICAL STORM GORDON...LOCATED ABOUT 425 MILES
NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS EMERGING FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA.
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OVER THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

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#72 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 11, 2006 4:35 pm

LSU Image

It looks like the low pressure will exit the coast tonight.
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#73 Postby ROCK » Mon Sep 11, 2006 4:58 pm

heres a good close-up as it makes its way off the coast tonight. Starting to come into view...

EUMETSAT
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#74 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Sep 11, 2006 5:13 pm

It's HUGE! It also already seems to have a circulation...
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#75 Postby dixiebreeze » Mon Sep 11, 2006 5:42 pm

Looks like No. 8 is imminent:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/dan ... testBW.gif
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#76 Postby Zardoz » Mon Sep 11, 2006 5:51 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:It's HUGE! It also already seems to have a circulation...

Yikes! :

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/met8/eatl/loop-vis.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/met8/eatl/loop-ir2.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/met8/eatl/loop-wv.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/met8/eatl/loop-avn.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/met8/eatl/loop-ft.html
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#77 Postby craptacular » Mon Sep 11, 2006 6:16 pm

You're not kidding about the size of this wave. It fills up a 10 degree by 10 degree box rather nicely ... much bigger than Gordon, and more along the lines of Florence.
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#78 Postby Buck » Mon Sep 11, 2006 6:20 pm

We've had some extremes this year... Chris was tiny. Florence was huge.
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#79 Postby Thunder44 » Mon Sep 11, 2006 6:30 pm

Judging by obs from Dakar and Sal in Cape Verde, it looks like the low has already moved offshore.
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#80 Postby SouthFloridawx » Mon Sep 11, 2006 6:32 pm

Thunder44 wrote:Judging by obs from Dakar and Sal in Cape Verde, it looks like the low has already moved offshore.


Judging from this satelite pic, I would say you are right.

http://tinyurl.com/kt3kv
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