Hurricane Isaac - Cat. 1

[wxman57]

Another fish. I don't see it getting very strong either.

Yep, won't have as favorable of conditions that Gordon & Helene had. Probably a moderate TS at best.

[CrazyC83]

Another fish. I don't see it getting very strong either.

Yep, won't have as favorable of conditions that Gordon & Helene had. Probably a moderate TS at best.

I agree. He'd be very hard-pressed to become Hurricane Isaac.

[Thunder44]

All global models this afternoon have it as just a open wave.

[rockyman]

Fish, huh? I think the system east of the Leewards is already a fish:

[HURAKAN]

Let see if it gets a little better organized and we can have Isaac by tonight!!!

[wxman57]

It's official, TD 9.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092006
500 PM EDT WED SEP 27 2006

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
HAS CONTINUED TO GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER-DEFINED IN THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. ALTHOUGH THE DEEP
CONVECTION DOES NOT WRAP MUCH AROUND THE CENTER...THE SYSTEM HAS
SUFFICIENT ORGANIZATION TO BE DESIGNATED AS A 30 KT TROPICAL
DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME. AN 1800 UTC SHIP REPORT ABOUT 60 MILES TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER REPORTED A RATHER HIGH CENTRAL PRESSURE
OF 1016.5 MB...A 21 KT SUSTAINED WIND...AND 13 FT SEAS. BASED ON
THIS SHIP REPORT...12 FT SEA RADII HAVE BEEN INCLUDED IN THE
ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 315/12...SINCE THE LOW-
LEVEL CENTER HAS REFORMED AT LEAST ONCE DURING THE PAST 12 TO 24
HOURS. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY SITUATED BETWEEN AN UPPER-LEVEL
CYCLONE TO ITS WEST AND A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS EAST. THE
GFS...UKMET... AND NOGAPS MODELS ALL TAKE THE CYCLONE AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...THEN ACCELERATE THE SYSTEM AT DAYS
THREE THROUGH FIVE NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH FROM
THE WEST. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH A
CONSENSUS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED GUIDANCE.

THE CURRENT POOR ORGANIZATION OF THE DEEP CONVECTION AND THE
PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LOW JUST TO THE WEST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
ARGUES AGAINST ANY RAPID STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER...THE VERTICAL
SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PROHIBIT SOME GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 27/2100Z 26.5N 53.1W 30 KT
12HR VT 28/0600Z 27.6N 54.5W 35 KT
24HR VT 28/1800Z 29.1N 56.0W 40 KT
36HR VT 29/0600Z 31.0N 57.5W 45 KT
48HR VT 29/1800Z 34.0N 58.0W 50 KT
72HR VT 30/1800Z 39.0N 56.0W 50 KT
96HR VT 01/1800Z 42.0N 50.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 02/1800Z 46.0N 40.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

[WmE]

[WmE]

ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092006
500 PM EDT WED SEP 27 2006

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS...NO THREAT TO LAND...

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE NINTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE
2006 HURRICANE SEASON HAS FORMED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.

AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.1 WEST OR ABOUT 810
MILES...1305 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND THE DEPRESSION
COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB...29.88 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...26.5 N...53.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/PASCH

NNNN

[JonathanBelles]

issac are you in there?

[HurricaneHunter914]

Fish, huh? I think the system east of the Leewards is already a fish:

If it looks like a fish, then it is a fish!

[fci]

Title of thread should be changed to TD #9.

[msbee]

it may look like a fish but it's not a fish until it clears the Northern islands!
Please don't forget that!

[caribepr]

Aw, Msbee:) We're so easy to forget...

[wxman57]

it may look like a fish but it's not a fish until it clears the Northern islands!
Please don't forget that!

msbee, let me explain the picture to you (and everyone else saying it's not a fish). And we're not talking about TD 9 here, though it's a fish, too, but doesn't LOOK like a fish. A picture is worth a thousand words:

[JonathanBelles]

HAHA wxman57

[wxman57]

HAHA wxman57

I hated to have to explain that one.

[wxwatcher91]

If TD 9 becomes Isaac and Isaac does not become a major hurricane, it would be the first time since 1998-1999 that the I storm has not reached major hurricane status two seasons in a row.

If TD 9 becomes Isaac and Isaac does not become a hurricane it would be the first time since 1989 with TS Iris (70mph) that the I storm has not reached hurricane intensity, not including 1997, 1994, 1993, 1992, and 1991 all of which didnt reach the I storm.

The weakest I storm since 1980 was Isaac in 1988 winds 45mph, pressure 1005mb

[SouthFloridawx]

Maybe the wrong place to post a very simple and funny joke. Good one though! It actually does look like a fish.

it may look like a fish but it's not a fish until it clears the Northern islands!
Please don't forget that!

msbee, let me explain the picture to you (and everyone else saying it's not a fish). And we're not talking about TD 9 here, though it's a fish, too, but doesn't LOOK like a fish. A picture is worth a thousand words:

[beachbum_al]

Thanks for the pic. My girls and I had a great laugh over the fish.

[Coredesat]

Is it just me, or are there two circulations here?



Granted, I imagine the southern part doesn't have long to live as it appears to be spinning the wrong way.