Hurricane Isaac - Cat. 1
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Hurricane Isaac - Cat. 1
96L.INVEST is up on the models and on the backup Navy site:
824
WHXX01 KWBC 200643
CHGHUR
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962006) ON 20060920 0600 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060920 0600 060920 1800 060921 0600 060921 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 8.5N 27.5W 9.1N 29.1W 9.8N 30.7W 10.3N 32.5W
BAMM 8.5N 27.5W 9.1N 29.2W 9.8N 30.7W 10.5N 32.3W
A98E 8.5N 27.5W 8.6N 29.6W 9.0N 31.9W 9.4N 34.2W
LBAR 8.5N 27.5W 9.1N 29.6W 9.8N 32.0W 10.3N 34.7W
SHIP 20KTS 25KTS 35KTS 46KTS
DSHP 20KTS 25KTS 35KTS 46KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060922 0600 060923 0600 060924 0600 060925 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 10.9N 34.3W 12.5N 37.8W 14.1N 40.8W 14.6N 43.6W
BAMM 11.2N 33.8W 13.7N 36.8W 16.8N 39.6W 18.6N 42.3W
A98E 9.6N 36.4W 10.8N 40.4W 12.0N 44.0W 13.6N 47.4W
LBAR 10.9N 37.6W 13.6N 43.0W 16.9N 46.5W 18.2N 48.0W
SHIP 58KTS 81KTS 88KTS 88KTS
DSHP 58KTS 81KTS 88KTS 88KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 8.5N LONCUR = 27.5W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 8.5N LONM12 = 25.5W DIRM12 = 267DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 8.8N LONM24 = 23.5W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
$$
EDIT: Mods, if this system develops into anything, feel free to retitle the thread accordingly.
824
WHXX01 KWBC 200643
CHGHUR
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962006) ON 20060920 0600 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060920 0600 060920 1800 060921 0600 060921 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 8.5N 27.5W 9.1N 29.1W 9.8N 30.7W 10.3N 32.5W
BAMM 8.5N 27.5W 9.1N 29.2W 9.8N 30.7W 10.5N 32.3W
A98E 8.5N 27.5W 8.6N 29.6W 9.0N 31.9W 9.4N 34.2W
LBAR 8.5N 27.5W 9.1N 29.6W 9.8N 32.0W 10.3N 34.7W
SHIP 20KTS 25KTS 35KTS 46KTS
DSHP 20KTS 25KTS 35KTS 46KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060922 0600 060923 0600 060924 0600 060925 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 10.9N 34.3W 12.5N 37.8W 14.1N 40.8W 14.6N 43.6W
BAMM 11.2N 33.8W 13.7N 36.8W 16.8N 39.6W 18.6N 42.3W
A98E 9.6N 36.4W 10.8N 40.4W 12.0N 44.0W 13.6N 47.4W
LBAR 10.9N 37.6W 13.6N 43.0W 16.9N 46.5W 18.2N 48.0W
SHIP 58KTS 81KTS 88KTS 88KTS
DSHP 58KTS 81KTS 88KTS 88KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 8.5N LONCUR = 27.5W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 8.5N LONM12 = 25.5W DIRM12 = 267DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 8.8N LONM24 = 23.5W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
$$
EDIT: Mods, if this system develops into anything, feel free to retitle the thread accordingly.
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Just saw this, it's on the main site too now:
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc0 ... atest.html
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc0 ... atest.html
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We've been keeping an eye on these waves off Africa for a couple of weeks, in numerous threads. Hard to see why they think this one is worth an invest when that trough behind Helene is shredding everything. It looks to be dipping south damned near to the coast of South America:
Eumetsat
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-rb.html
How can anything survive that?
Eumetsat
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-rb.html
How can anything survive that?
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772
ABNT20 KNHC 200903
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT WED SEP 20 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IS CENTERED ABOUT 450 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED
AND BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING...AND ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
ABNT20 KNHC 200903
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT WED SEP 20 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IS CENTERED ABOUT 450 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED
AND BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING...AND ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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It's the blob of convection near 8N-27W. The GFS and some of the other global models develop this system. Indeed, the SHIPs brings it up to 88 kts in 120 hrs. Soon to be Issac? Yikes, who came up with that name!
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/met8/eatl/loop-avn.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/met8/eatl/loop-avn.html
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WHXX04 KWBC 201131
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
NCEP UNCOUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 96L
INITIAL TIME 6Z SEP 20
DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECAST STORM POSITION
HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)
0 8.8 27.5 270./ 9.9
6 10.5 27.9 349./17.7
STORM DISSIPATED AT 6 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.
6z GFDL dissipates 96L in the next 6 hours.
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
NCEP UNCOUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 96L
INITIAL TIME 6Z SEP 20
DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECAST STORM POSITION
HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)
0 8.8 27.5 270./ 9.9
6 10.5 27.9 349./17.7
STORM DISSIPATED AT 6 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.
6z GFDL dissipates 96L in the next 6 hours.
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- cycloneye
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In the graphic that I posted above,GFDL is the little red line in the extreme lower right.
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The GFDL is going MAD!!! How can that be? Can someone explain that cause I sure don't see how that's gonna happen!
Last edited by StormTracker on Wed Sep 20, 2006 7:28 am, edited 1 time in total.
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