Hurricane Isaac - Cat. 1

[SouthFloridawx]

Rainstorm:

If you read that map correctly it backs what I am saying. 96L will follow Helene into the gap shown on your model. Since the fronts coming from CONUS move west to east, by the time 96L confronts that synoptic shown in your model it will be well into recurve off the east coast.

Actually the synoptics at 00 Hour are different than the synoptics @ 144 Hours. Additionally I am more interested in the feature that the models develop behind 96L.


Here we see strong westerlies coming off the CONUS out into the Atlantic above 20 N.

@ 144 Hours we see a trough but, farther north compared to the one now. This would support a possible ridge building in and troughing not affecting the ridge as much as it is now.


Of course I was just glancing at it and I'm at work and I could be wrong...

Below I've also posted the N. American view of the same shots as above. The Hours shot shows another trough out in the west but at 144 hour no trough in the west we could have a Ridge building as the Trough in the East pulls out with nothing behind to weaken the ridge further.

00Hour


144 Hour


Edited to correct times above.

[cycloneye]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Here is the complete loop of the 12z run of GFS that rainstorm posted.Yikes! for me as it tracks the low near Puerto Rico.But it's way far out to say with confidence this will occur.More runs from GFS and other models are needed to see a trend.

[terstorm1012]

I agree with you cycloneye! (but check the batteries just in case man!)

I'm thinking fish too...but let us not forget Hazel, a late season low latitute Cape Verde storm.....anything is possible!

[SouthFloridawx]

FYI i'm not as excited about 96L as I am with the models picking up on something behind it.

[SouthFloridawx]

Rainstorm:

If you read that map correctly it backs what I am saying. 96L will follow Helene into the gap shown on your model. Since the fronts coming from CONUS move west to east, by the time 96L confronts that synoptic shown in your model it will be well into recurve off the east coast.

Let's look at both 00 Hour and the 144 Hour and see what differences we note.

00 Hour


144 Hour - Here I have a map showing the differences in both of those frames. 6 Days is a while out and things can change a lot but, I notice some different things there that may make a difference as far as a "Might Be" storm going out to sea now than in 144 Hours.

[CrazyC83]

I agree with you cycloneye! (but check the batteries just in case man!)

I'm thinking fish too...but let us not forget Hazel, a late season low latitute Cape Verde storm.....anything is possible!

Hazel was not a Cape Verde storm. It formed in the Caribbean near Grenada and then went due north from Haiti to the Carolinas northward...

[terstorm1012]

I agree with you cycloneye! (but check the batteries just in case man!)

I'm thinking fish too...but let us not forget Hazel, a late season low latitute Cape Verde storm.....anything is possible!

Hazel was not a Cape Verde storm. It formed in the Caribbean near Grenada and then went due north from Haiti to the Carolinas northward...

Ok...I thought Hazel was a Cape Verde Storm that crossed at Grenada then got sucked northward.

[Bgator]

Why are there no 18Z Models?

[cycloneye]

Why are there no 18Z Models?

There haved not been no public runs of the 12z and 18z as so far the only one that came out and is at the graphic I posted early this morning was the 6:00z.Also GFDL has not runned at 12z for 96L.

[gatorcane]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/index_ten_l_loop.shtml

Here is the complete loop of the 12z run of GFS that rainstorm posted.Yikes! for me as it tracks the low near Puerto Rico.But it's way far out to say with confidence this will occur.More runs from GFS and other models are needed to see a trend.

yikes is right

[Derek Ortt]

there probably are not any 18Z models probably because the forecaster on duty (I believe it's Avila) does not feel that there is anything iminent in terms of development. Judging by the systems sat appearance, and the fact that only the GFS develops this, the chances of development appear to be small

[SouthFloridawx]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/index_ten_l_loop.shtml

Here is the complete loop of the 12z run of GFS that rainstorm posted.Yikes! for me as it tracks the low near Puerto Rico.But it's way far out to say with confidence this will occur.More runs from GFS and other models are needed to see a trend.

yikes is right

GFS actually tracks the one you are talking about to the North of the Islands but, the one behind it is the one I would worry about to possibly get into the Caribbean.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation
850mb Vorticity Animation

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=144hr
850mb Vorticity 144 Hour

[NCHurricane]

I agree with you cycloneye! (but check the batteries just in case man!)

I'm thinking fish too...but let us not forget Hazel, a late season low latitute Cape Verde storm.....anything is possible!

Hazel was not a Cape Verde storm. It formed in the Caribbean near Grenada and then went due north from Haiti to the Carolinas northward...

Actually, when the HH first flew into Hazel on 10/5, they found winds of 60Kts near Grenada. That's when the advisories were first issued. It's very possible it was a depression long before that and could've been CV system.

It's all speculation however.

Chuck Copeland
http://www.nchurricane.com

[StormTracker]

gatorcane wrote:
cycloneye wrote:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Here is the complete loop of the 12z run of GFS that rainstorm posted.Yikes! for me as it tracks the low near Puerto Rico.But it's way far out to say with confidence this will occur.More runs from GFS and other models are needed to see a trend.


yikes is right


GFS actually tracks the one you are talking about to the North of the Islands but, the one behind it is the one I would worry about to possibly get into the Caribbean.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation
850mb Vorticity Animation

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=144hr
850mb Vorticity 144 Hour

Back to top

Looks like the feature behind 96L that SouthFloridawx is talking about is starting to ignite!

[cycloneye]

StormTracker,that pic is from the Central Pacific.



Central Atlantic Pic.

[StormTracker]

[quote="cycloneye"]StormTracker,that pic is from the Central Pacific.

Oooops!!! Now how did that happen???

[BensonTCwatcher]

Well, looking at the GFS, there does not seem to be a lot of long wave troughs coming across the conus. Indian summer perhaps i.e. prevalant ridging. Not seeing the same setup on UKMET, NOGAPS, MM5 just yet, so the possibilities are rather on the low side for a low lattitude late season CV storm. If the GFS stays with this over 3 or 4 runs I would have to give it a lot of credence. It has been pretty decent on the ridging this year, i.e. not overcooking/overcooking them too much. Next week may be interesting if this distubance or any disturbance gets closed off below 12N or so

[fci]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/index_ten_l_loop.shtml

Here is the complete loop of the 12z run of GFS that rainstorm posted.Yikes! for me as it tracks the low near Puerto Rico.But it's way far out to say with confidence this will occur.More runs from GFS and other models are needed to see a trend.

yikes is right

Still looks like a train of them on the "Recurvature Highway" to me.

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 210223
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT WED SEP 20 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
HELENE...LOCATED ABOUT 590 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE...ACCOMPANIED BY A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE...IS LOCATED ABOUT 500 HUNDRED MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS DISORGANIZED
AND DEVELOPMENT..IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES
TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN

[boca]

I think the way this year has been anything that still may form out in the Central or Eastern Atlantic will recurve and be a fish. The fronts are getting stronger and having a strong Bermuda high seems alittle far fetched since we haven't had one of any significence this season. Any threat to the US will be in the Gulf or Caribbean if shear doesn't kill it come October. If I'm wrong about 96L recurving if it forms I'll eat duck instead of crow since I don't like duck.