Tropical Depression Sergio=Last Advisory Written

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Cyclenall
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#61 Postby Cyclenall » Wed Nov 15, 2006 4:19 pm

I think Serigo is at least 100 knots now or perhaps even higher. 95 knots is a bit conservative for a hurricane with that size eye. I'm not so sure if the pin-hole eye is cleared out but nevertheless it shows every time how intense the cyclone is. The east Pacific just keeps pumping them out one by one. And again, the GFDL performs well like I thought it would with Serigo. I find it amusing how the SHIPS didn't show Serigo strengthening up to hurricane strength and then a few hours after, it does just that!

What's the size of that eye?

That was a excellent loop calamity.

The following post is NOT an official product and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

My thoughts on powerful Sergio:

New % chance of Hurricane Sergio becoming a:

Tropical Depression: 100%
Tropical Storm: 100%
Hurricane: 100%
Category 2 Hurricane: 100%
Category 3 Hurricane: 96% (I think it's a major right now)
Category 4 Hurricane: 50%
Category 5 Hurricane: 5%
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#62 Postby WmE » Wed Nov 15, 2006 4:35 pm

EYE DIAMETER 10 NM

Quite a small eye!
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#63 Postby fci » Wed Nov 15, 2006 6:36 pm

Wow to see wuch a well built storm in November is fascinating.

I don't usually follow EPAC storms but with the Atlantic shut down already it feeds the "hurricane interest" quotient and fascination quite well.
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#64 Postby Cyclenall » Wed Nov 15, 2006 7:23 pm

Just a hour or so before I made my first post today in this thread, Sergio's tiny eye was becoming less defined then past hours earlier today. I couldn't understand why and now it's totally gone pretty much off visible images :( . Chances that it will come back? Other then that, everything else is stable and it could be getting slightly larger in size.
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#65 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 15, 2006 7:37 pm

HURRICANE SERGIO (EP212006) ON 20061116 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
061116 0000 061116 1200 061117 0000 061117 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.1N 103.3W 12.9N 102.9W 14.3N 102.7W 16.0N 102.7W
BAMM 12.1N 103.3W 12.6N 103.4W 13.6N 103.6W 14.7N 104.0W
LBAR 12.1N 103.3W 12.7N 102.7W 14.1N 102.4W 15.7N 102.2W
SHIP 90KTS 83KTS 74KTS 66KTS
DSHP 90KTS 83KTS 74KTS 66KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
061118 0000 061119 0000 061120 0000 061121 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.5N 103.1W 21.1N 104.8W 23.8N 103.9W 23.7N 99.6W
BAMM 15.9N 104.9W 18.7N 107.9W 19.6N 110.5W 19.2N 112.5W
LBAR 17.1N 102.2W 19.2N 101.8W 20.5N 98.8W 22.6N 91.4W
SHIP 60KTS 58KTS 51KTS 38KTS
DSHP 60KTS 58KTS 51KTS 38KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.1N LONCUR = 103.3W DIRCUR = 80DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 12.3N LONM12 = 104.0W DIRM12 = 140DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 12.8N LONM24 = 104.4W
WNDCUR = 90KT RMAXWD = 10NM WNDM12 = 85KT
CENPRS = 970MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 80NM RD34SE = 80NM RD34SW = 80NM RD34NW = 80NM

$$

Slightly weaker now,down to 90kts.
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#66 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 15, 2006 8:02 pm

Cyclenall wrote:Just a hour or so before I made my first post today in this thread, Sergio's tiny eye was becoming less defined then past hours earlier today. I couldn't understand why and now it's totally gone pretty much off visible images :( . Chances that it will come back? Other then that, everything else is stable and it could be getting slightly larger in size.


Maybe as it is crawling in the general area,the upwelling may have something to do with the slightly weaker Sergio.
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#67 Postby Cyclenall » Wed Nov 15, 2006 8:16 pm

cycloneye wrote:
Cyclenall wrote:Just a hour or so before I made my first post today in this thread, Sergio's tiny eye was becoming less defined then past hours earlier today. I couldn't understand why and now it's totally gone pretty much off visible images :( . Chances that it will come back? Other then that, everything else is stable and it could be getting slightly larger in size.


Maybe as it is crawling in the general area,the upwelling may have something to do with the slightly weaker Sergio.

Well, I know it's not a major hurricane right now but I still believe that it briefly became a category 3 hurricane with 100 knot winds when the pin-hole eye was clearly there. The next question is, is this a short-term flux in strength or the start of long-term weakening?
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#68 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 15, 2006 9:36 pm

379
WTPZ41 KNHC 160235
TCDEP1
HURRICANE SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212006
700 PM PST WED NOV 15 2006

AFTER LOOKING VERY IMPRESSIVE EARLIER TODAY...SERGIO'S SATELLITE
PRESENTATION HAS DEGRADED RAPIDLY DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.
THE EYE IS NO LONGER PRESENT AND THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN HAS
BECOME INCREASINGLY ELONGATED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. IT IS
DIFFICULT TO KNOW WHETHER THIS IS A TEMPORARY FLUCTUATION OR THE
BEGINNING OF A LONGER-TERM WEAKENING TREND. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS CONSERVATIVELY SET AT 90 KT IN LINE WITH AN AVERAGE OF THE
AVAILABLE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
UW-CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE THAT THE LARGE-SCALE
PATTERN DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE EVOLVING AS PREVIOUSLY SHOWN BY THE
GLOBAL MODELS. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHWARD OVER THE
BAJA PENINSULA HAS NOT CLOSED OFF AND THE WEAK RIDGE HAS NOT YET
FORMED OVER MEXICO. INSTEAD...A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES EXTENDS ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. AS A
RESULT...STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR IS NOW BEARING DOWN ON THE
CYCLONE...AND MAY ALREADY BE AFFECTING IT. NONETHELESS...THE GFDL
MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW SERGIO STRENGTHENING WHILE MOVING NORTHWARD
INTO THIS INCREASINGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SINCE ANY APPRECIABLE
NORTHWARD MOTION WOULD TAKE THE CYCLONE INTO A SEEMINGLY HOSTILE
ENVIRONMENT...THIS SOLUTION DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE THE MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO. INSTEAD...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE MODEL AND CALLS FOR NO ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING AS THE CYCLONE
BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER EVEN STRONGER SHEAR AND A DRY/STABLE AIR
AIRMASS.

SERGIO HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD THIS EVENING WITH THE LAST
COUPLE OF SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGESTING A GRADUAL NORTHWARD TURN.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 060/4. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE
LARGE-SCALE STEERING PATTERN IS COMPLEX...RESULTING IN QUITE A BIT
OF SPREAD AMONG THE AVAILABLE TRACK MODELS. THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
IS FLANKED ON THE EAST SIDE BY THE GFDL AND NOGAPS MODELS WHICH
SHOW SERGIO CLIPPING THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO.
CONVERSELY...THE GFS...ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND NOW THE ECMWF MODEL
SHOW A MORE WESTWARD TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES THAT
SERGIO WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND THUS TURN NORTHWEST IN LINE WITH
THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE AND MEDIUM BAM MODEL. WHILE IT IS MUCH TOO
SOON TO SAY WHETHER SERGIO WILL OR WILL NOT AFFECT MEXICO...
INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR THE HISTORICALLY CURIOUS...SERGIO IS THE STRONGEST EASTERN NORTH
PACIFIC BASIN HURRICANE ON RECORD FOR SO LATE IN THE SEASON.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/0300Z 12.3N 103.2W 90 KT
12HR VT 16/1200Z 12.7N 103.1W 90 KT
24HR VT 17/0000Z 13.7N 103.3W 90 KT
36HR VT 17/1200Z 14.6N 103.8W 85 KT
48HR VT 18/0000Z 15.9N 104.9W 75 KT
72HR VT 19/0000Z 18.0N 106.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 20/0000Z 19.5N 107.5W 55 KT
120HR VT 21/0000Z 21.0N 109.0W 45 KT

$$
FORECASTER RHOME

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#69 Postby Cyclenall » Wed Nov 15, 2006 10:35 pm

Cyclenall wrote:The next question is, is this a short-term flux in strength or the start of long-term weakening?


NHC Discussion wrote:IT IS
DIFFICULT TO KNOW WHETHER THIS IS A TEMPORARY FLUCTUATION OR THE
BEGINNING OF A LONGER-TERM WEAKENING TREND.


The National Hurricane Center had the same thoughts.
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#70 Postby MiamiensisWx » Wed Nov 15, 2006 11:04 pm

Cyclenall wrote:Well, I know it's not a major hurricane right now but I still believe that it briefly became a category 3 hurricane with 100 knot winds when the pin-hole eye was clearly there.


I tend to harbor similar thoughts, as the overall structure and outflow/inflow at the time, tight main core region, and QUICKSCAT data supported the possibility of a small area of 100KT winds per the surface (one-minute estimates). It's possible Sergio, then, may be upgraded per preliminary report.
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#71 Postby Cyclenall » Wed Nov 15, 2006 11:32 pm

MiamiensisWx wrote:
Cyclenall wrote:Well, I know it's not a major hurricane right now but I still believe that it briefly became a category 3 hurricane with 100 knot winds when the pin-hole eye was clearly there.


I tend to harbor similar thoughts, as the overall structure and outflow/inflow at the time, tight main core region, and QUICKSCAT data supported the possibility of a small area of 100KT winds per the surface (one-minute estimates). It's possible Sergio, then, may be upgraded per preliminary report.

Let's hope that the NHC does upgrade with the data supporting a major hurricane. There is a difference between a major hurricane and a regular hurricane when it comes to final stats for the whole season.
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#72 Postby Chacor » Thu Nov 16, 2006 3:09 am

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141
WHXX01 KMIA 160800
CHGE77
 
 DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
 PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.
 
  NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
  HURRICANE     SERGIO (EP212006) ON 20061116  0600 UTC
 
          ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS...   ...36 HRS...
          061116  0600   061116  1800   061117  0600   061117  1800
 
           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD    12.3N 103.1W   13.4N 102.5W   14.5N 101.9W   15.5N 101.5W
  BAMM    12.3N 103.1W   13.4N 103.2W   14.2N 103.2W   14.8N 103.7W
  LBAR    12.3N 103.1W   13.3N 102.3W   14.5N 102.0W   15.8N 102.0W
  SHIP        90KTS          78KTS          69KTS          63KTS
  DSHP        90KTS          78KTS          69KTS          63KTS
 
          ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS...   ..120 HRS...
          061118  0600   061119  0600   061120  0600   061121  0600
 
           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD    16.3N 101.6W   19.0N 102.1W   21.2N  99.2W   18.8N  89.6W
  BAMM    15.5N 104.7W   17.7N 107.3W   18.5N 109.9W   18.3N 111.5W
  LBAR    16.9N 102.1W   18.7N 101.6W   20.6N  98.8W   22.6N  90.5W
  SHIP        59KTS          53KTS          43KTS          30KTS
  DSHP        59KTS          53KTS          43KTS          30KTS
 
               ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
  LATCUR =  12.3N LONCUR = 103.1W DIRCUR =  60DEG SPDCUR =   3KT
  LATM12 =  12.0N LONM12 = 103.7W DIRM12 = 106DEG SPDM12 =   4KT
  LATM24 =  12.7N LONM24 = 104.3W
  WNDCUR =   90KT RMAXWD =   10NM WNDM12 =   95KT
  CENPRS =  970MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  180NM SDEPTH =   D
  RD34NE =   80NM RD34SE =   80NM RD34SW =   80NM RD34NW =  80NM
 
 $$
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#73 Postby Chacor » Thu Nov 16, 2006 3:10 am

Image

Doesn't look very good. Not much deep convection...
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#74 Postby Chacor » Thu Nov 16, 2006 3:41 am

Retained at 90 kt at 1 a.m....

000
WTPZ21 KNHC 160830
TCMEP1
HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212006
0900 UTC THU NOV 16 2006

INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF SERGIO.


HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 103.1W AT 16/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 103.1W AT 16/0900Z
AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 103.1W

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 13.1N 103.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 14.1N 103.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 15.0N 103.9W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 15.9N 104.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 18.0N 106.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 19.5N 107.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 21.0N 110.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.5N 103.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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#75 Postby Chacor » Thu Nov 16, 2006 3:48 am

864
WTPZ41 KNHC 160844
TCDEP1
HURRICANE SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212006
100 AM PST THU NOV 16 2006

THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE OF SERGIO HAS CONTINUED TO SLOWLY DEGRADE...
WITH THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN ELONGATED FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND
THE CENTRAL CONVECTION SOMEWHAT RAGGED. AN SSM/I OVERPASS AT 0249Z
SHOWED THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN NOW SHOW ABOUT
15 KT OF WESTERLY SHEAR AFFECTING THE SYSTEM DUE TO A DEVELOPING
MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WEST OF THE HURRICANE. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE 102 KT FROM TAFB...90 KT FROM SAB...AND 77 KT FROM
AFWA. BASED ON THIS THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 90 KT...ALTHOUGH
THIS COULD BE A LITTLE GENEROUS.

SERGIO APPEARS TO BE MAKING ITS FORECAST LEFT TURN...WITH THE
INITIAL MOTION NOW 045/3. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA WITH A
BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO NEAR 12N111W. THE LARGE-SCALE
MODELS AGREE THE LOW SHOULD MOVE SOUTHWARD FOR ANOTHER 24 HR OR
SO...THEN TURN WESTWARD AS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO TO THE WEST OF A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. DESPITE THIS...A
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD REMAINS IN THE MODEL FORECAST TRACKS FOR
SERGIO. THE GFDL AND THE NOGAPS ARE ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND ARE THE FASTEST...BRINGING THE CENTER TO THE
MEXICAN COAST IN 48-72 HR. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE ON THE LEFT SIDE
OF THE GUIDANCE...WHILE THE UKMET IS DOWN THE MIDDLE AND SLOWER.
THE FORECAST TRACK IS BASED ON THE PREMISE THAT THE DEVELOPING LOW
WILL TURN SERGIO NORTHWARD FOR 24 HR OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A MOTION
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST AS THE RIDGE BUILDS. THE
NEW TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS IN BEST
AGREEMENT WITH THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY...INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SERGIO IN CASE IT MOVES CLOSER TO
THE COAST THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE SHEAR TO INCREASE SOMEWHAT OVER
THE NEXT 24 HR...SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR WEAKENING
DURING THAT PERIOD. THE MODELS FORECAST AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO
BUILD OVER SERGIO FROM 24-72 HR...WHICH WILL CAUSE SOME SHEAR BUT
LIKELY PRODUCE STRONG DIFFLUENCE OR DIVERGENCE OVER THE SYSTEM.
THE SHIPS AND SUPERENSEMBLE MODELS FORECAST WEAKENING DURING THIS
TIME...WHILE THE GFDL MAINTAINS SERGIO AS A 90-100 KT HURRICANE.
ON THE PREMISE THAT THE SHEAR WILL PREVAIL OVER THE DIVERGENCE...
THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR SLOW WEAKENING DURING THIS
TIME...ALTHOUGH AT A SLOWER PACE THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. AFTER
72 HR...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE WHILE THE DIVERGENCE
DECREASES...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE A FASTER WEAKENING.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/0900Z 12.5N 103.1W 90 KT
12HR VT 16/1800Z 13.1N 103.0W 85 KT
24HR VT 17/0600Z 14.1N 103.3W 80 KT
36HR VT 17/1800Z 15.0N 103.9W 80 KT
48HR VT 18/0600Z 15.9N 104.8W 75 KT
72HR VT 19/0600Z 18.0N 106.5W 70 KT
96HR VT 20/0600Z 19.5N 107.5W 55 KT
120HR VT 21/0600Z 21.0N 110.0W 40 KT

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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#76 Postby Chacor » Thu Nov 16, 2006 9:13 am

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423
WHXX01 KMIA 161230
CHGE77
 
 DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
 PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.
 
  NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
  HURRICANE     SERGIO (EP212006) ON 20061116  1200 UTC
 
          ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS...   ...36 HRS...
          061116  1200   061117  0000   061117  1200   061118  0000
 
           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD    12.7N 103.0W   14.1N 102.2W   15.3N 101.6W   16.3N 101.6W
  BAMM    12.7N 103.0W   13.9N 102.9W   14.8N 103.1W   15.5N 103.9W
  LBAR    12.7N 103.0W   13.6N 102.6W   14.8N 102.4W   15.8N 102.6W
  SHIP        85KTS          75KTS          66KTS          63KTS
  DSHP        85KTS          75KTS          66KTS          63KTS
 
          ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS...   ..120 HRS...
          061118  1200   061119  1200   061120  1200   061121  1200
 
           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD    17.5N 102.2W   20.6N 102.8W   23.1N 100.0W   19.9N  89.6W
  BAMM    16.3N 105.2W   18.1N 107.5W   18.0N 109.2W   18.4N 109.5W
  LBAR    16.5N 102.9W   17.6N 102.9W   18.6N 101.3W   19.9N  95.9W
  SHIP        60KTS          54KTS          41KTS          27KTS
  DSHP        60KTS          54KTS          41KTS          27KTS
 
               ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
  LATCUR =  12.7N LONCUR = 103.0W DIRCUR =  45DEG SPDCUR =   3KT
  LATM12 =  12.1N LONM12 = 103.3W DIRM12 =  63DEG SPDM12 =   3KT
  LATM24 =  12.3N LONM24 = 104.0W
  WNDCUR =   85KT RMAXWD =   10NM WNDM12 =   90KT
  CENPRS =  975MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  180NM SDEPTH =   D
  RD34NE =   80NM RD34SE =   80NM RD34SW =   80NM RD34NW =  80NM
 
 $$


Minimal Cat 2 now, definitely weakening it seems.
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#77 Postby Chacor » Thu Nov 16, 2006 9:42 am

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 161436
TCDEP1
HURRICANE SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212006
700 AM PST THU NOV 16 2006

THE CLOUD PATTERN IS DEFINITELY NOT AS WELL ORGANIZED AS IT WAS 24
HOURS AGO. THE EYE IS NO LONGER DISCERNIBLE ON CONVENTIONAL IMAGERY
BUT IS WELL DEFINED ON EARLIER MICROWAVE DATA. THE EYE APPEARS TO
BE LOCATED ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION SUGGESTING
THAT THE SHEAR IS INCREASING. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
LOWERED TO 85 KNOTS BASED ON THE GRADUAL DECREASE OF DVORAK
T-NUMBERS. SERGIO COULD MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY FOR ABOUT
12 TO 24 HOURS BUT THE CYCLONE IS HEADING TOWARD AN AREA OF
INCREASING WIND SHEAR. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL
WEAKENING...PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE THAN INDICATED IN THE FORECAST.

SERGIO HAS BEGUN TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD...AT ABOUT 4 KNOTS. GLOBAL
MODELS INSIST ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND EAST
OF THE CYCLONE. CONSEQUENTLY...SERGIO SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN MORE TO
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE
OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND AT THIS TIME...IT KEEPS THE CYCLONE ON
A PATH PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO. HOWEVER...THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AND A TRACK CLOSER TO THE
COAST..AS INDICATED BY THE GFDL...IS STILL POSSIBLE. SO MEXICO STAY
TUNED.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/1500Z 12.9N 103.0W 85 KT
12HR VT 17/0000Z 13.7N 103.0W 85 KT
24HR VT 17/1200Z 14.5N 103.5W 80 KT
36HR VT 18/0000Z 15.5N 104.0W 75 KT
48HR VT 18/1200Z 16.5N 105.0W 70 KT
72HR VT 19/1200Z 18.5N 106.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 20/1200Z 20.0N 107.5W 50 KT
120HR VT 21/1200Z 21.5N 109.5W 40 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


Typical Avila... "So Mexico stay tuned". :lol:
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#78 Postby cycloneye » Thu Nov 16, 2006 2:16 pm

HURRICANE SERGIO (EP212006) ON 20061116 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
061116 1800 061117 0600 061117 1800 061118 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.4N 102.8W 15.0N 102.2W 16.2N 101.9W 17.2N 102.5W
BAMM 13.4N 102.8W 14.6N 102.7W 15.3N 103.1W 16.0N 104.3W
LBAR 13.4N 102.8W 14.5N 102.2W 15.5N 102.1W 16.4N 102.4W
SHIP 70KTS 58KTS 51KTS 50KTS
DSHP 70KTS 58KTS 51KTS 50KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
061118 1800 061119 1800 061120 1800 061121 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.5N 103.7W 21.4N 105.3W 23.7N 106.6W 26.9N 107.8W
BAMM 17.0N 105.8W 18.5N 108.3W 18.7N 110.6W 20.0N 112.1W
LBAR 17.2N 102.6W 18.5N 102.0W 20.1N 98.7W 22.9N 90.5W
SHIP 48KTS 42KTS 30KTS 19KTS
DSHP 48KTS 42KTS 30KTS 19KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.4N LONCUR = 102.8W DIRCUR = 10DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 12.3N LONM12 = 103.1W DIRM12 = 26DEG SPDM12 = 3KT
LATM24 = 12.0N LONM24 = 103.7W
WNDCUR = 70KT RMAXWD = 10NM WNDM12 = 90KT
CENPRS = 982MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 90NM RD34SE = 100NM RD34SW = 60NM RD34NW = 60NM


The rapid weakening trend continues after being almost a major cane and now is almost a storm.
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#79 Postby cycloneye » Thu Nov 16, 2006 3:37 pm

WTPZ31 KNHC 162034
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE SERGIO ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212006
100 PM PST THU NOV 16 2006

...RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH SERGIO AFFECTING THE COAST OF MEXICO...

INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF SERGIO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 100 PM PST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SERGIO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 13.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.8 WEST OR ABOUT 385 MILES
...620 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO.

SERGIO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SERGIO IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES.

SATELLITE IMAGES AND RADAR FROM MEXICO INDICATE THAT RAINBANDS
ASSOCIATED WITH SERGIO ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF
MEXICO FROM PUERTO ANGEL TO MANZANILLO. THESE RAINS SHOULD CONTINUE
TO INCREASE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

REPEATING THE 100 PM PST POSITION...13.6 N...102.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
700 PM PST.

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI

938
WTPZ41 KNHC 162034
TCDEP1
HURRICANE SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212006
100 PM PST THU NOV 16 2006

SERGIO WEAKENED SOMEWHAT RAPIDLY AFTER THE ISSUANCE OF THE LAST
ADVISORY. HOWEVER...CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
THE WINDS THE DEEP CONVECTION IS MAKING A LITTLE BIT OF A COMEBACK
AND THE CYCLONE HAS REDEVELOPED A CDO CLOUD PATTERN. DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB WERE 4.0/5.0 OR 65 KT/90
KT. OVERALL...THE SYSTEM IS ON A WEAKENING TREND AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 70 KT. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST
AS THE SHEAR INCREASES AND THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH BOTH THE SHIPS
AND FSSE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

SERGIO HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE TO THE NORTH AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS
ESTIMATED AT 010/5. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE AGREE ON A NORTHWARD
MOTION IN THE NEAR TERM. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
ANTICIPATED AFTER 48 HOURS OR SO...AS THE CYCLONE MOVES TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING RIDGE TO
THE NORTH AND EAST. THE PROXIMITY OF THE CYCLONE TO THE COAST
VARIES UPON THE MODEL REPRESENTATION OF THE EASTWARD MIGRATION OF
THE RIDGE. THE GFDL MODEL BRINGS THE CYCLONE THE CLOSEST TO THE
COAST...WHILE THE UKMET AND GFS MODELS KEEP THE CYCLONE WELL
OFFSHORE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SOLUTIONS.

BECAUSE RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH SERGIO ARE ALREADY AFFECTING THE
COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUERTO ANGEL TO MANZANILLO....A PUBLIC
ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/2100Z 13.6N 102.8W 70 KT
12HR VT 17/0600Z 14.5N 102.8W 65 KT
24HR VT 17/1800Z 15.2N 103.4W 60 KT
36HR VT 18/0600Z 15.9N 104.1W 55 KT
48HR VT 18/1800Z 17.0N 105.0W 50 KT
72HR VT 19/1800Z 19.5N 106.5W 45 KT
96HR VT 20/1800Z 21.0N 108.5W 40 KT
120HR VT 21/1800Z 22.0N 111.0W 30 KT

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI
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#80 Postby Chacor » Thu Nov 16, 2006 7:35 pm

Remains 70 kt at 00Z.

Code: Select all

231
WHXX01 KMIA 170023
CHGE77
 
 DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
 PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.
 
  NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
  HURRICANE     SERGIO (EP212006) ON 20061117  0000 UTC
 
          ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS...   ...36 HRS...
          061117  0000   061117  1200   061118  0000   061118  1200
 
           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD    13.6N 102.7W   15.0N 101.9W   16.1N 101.9W   17.1N 102.8W
  BAMM    13.6N 102.7W   14.6N 102.7W   15.2N 103.3W   16.2N 104.5W
  LBAR    13.6N 102.7W   14.4N 102.5W   15.5N 102.6W   16.5N 102.9W
  SHIP        70KTS          59KTS          53KTS          51KTS
  DSHP        70KTS          59KTS          53KTS          51KTS
 
          ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS...   ..120 HRS...
          061119  0000   061120  0000   061121  0000   061122  0000
 
           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD    18.6N 103.8W   21.8N 104.5W   23.9N 100.3W   19.6N  87.1W
  BAMM    17.3N 105.8W   18.5N 107.7W   19.5N 109.4W   20.9N 111.0W
  LBAR    17.2N 103.0W   18.5N 101.7W   20.8N  96.8W   26.9N  83.4W
  SHIP        51KTS          44KTS          32KTS          20KTS
  DSHP        51KTS          44KTS          32KTS          20KTS
 
               ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
  LATCUR =  13.6N LONCUR = 102.7W DIRCUR =  15DEG SPDCUR =   4KT
  LATM12 =  12.8N LONM12 = 102.8W DIRM12 =  23DEG SPDM12 =   5KT
  LATM24 =  12.1N LONM24 = 103.3W
  WNDCUR =   70KT RMAXWD =   10NM WNDM12 =   85KT
  CENPRS =  982MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  180NM SDEPTH =   D
  RD34NE =   90NM RD34SE =  100NM RD34SW =   60NM RD34NW =  60NM
 
 $$

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