Tropical Depression Sergio=Last Advisory Written

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#81 Postby cycloneye » Thu Nov 16, 2006 9:41 pm

WTPZ31 KNHC 170240
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE SERGIO ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212006
700 PM PST THU NOV 16 2006

...SERGIO TURNING TOWARD THE NORTH...
...OUTER RAINBANDS AFFECTING SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO FROM PUERTO ANGEL
TO MANZANILLO...

INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF SERGIO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 700 PM PST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SERGIO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.7 WEST OR ABOUT 375 MILES
...605 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO.

SERGIO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR...AND A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SERGIO IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES.

SERGIO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES OVER SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
8 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.

REPEATING THE 700 PM PST POSITION...13.8 N...102.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
100 AM PST.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME

454
WTPZ41 KNHC 170243
TCDEP1
HURRICANE SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212006
700 PM PST THU NOV 16 2006

AFTER WEAKENING CONSIDERABLY EARLIER TODAY...SERGIO APPEARS TO BE
HOLDING ITS OWN AS DEEP CONVECTION HAS REFORMED OVER THE CENTER.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 70 KT BASED ON THIS TREND.
NONETHELESS...THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO BATTLE STRONG WESTERLY
SHEAR...AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE SHEAR WILL BE EVEN
STRONGER ALONG THE PROJECTED TRACK. EVEN THE GFDL HAS FINALLY
ACKNOWLEDGED SUCH A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT AND BACKED OFF FROM ITS
EARLIER ROBUST INTENSIFICATION. THE ONLY POTENTIAL FACTOR ARGUING
FOR STRENGTHENING WOULD BE FOR THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE TO FRACTURE AND FORM A CLOSED
LOW...LEAVING A DOWNSTREAM UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER SERGIO. SOME OF
THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST SUCH A LARGE-SCALE ENVIRONMENT COULD
UNFOLD IN 1-2 DAYS. HOWEVER...EVEN IF THIS PATTERN MATERIALIZES...
SERGIO WOULD STILL HAVE TO OVERCOME INCREASINGLY DRY AND STABLE
AIR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES THAT SERGIO WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN...BUT IT DOES PAY RESPECT TO THE POTENTIALLY LESS
HOSTILE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BY SHOWING AN INTENSITY PLATEAU AT 36-48
HOURS. THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE AND SHIPS MODELS SHOW EVEN FASTER
WEAKENING THAN INDICATED HERE.

SERGIO CONTINUES ITS GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH WITH AN INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE OF 360/4. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED
TO BUILD SOUTHWARD OVER CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO
IMPARTING A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...THIS PATTERN WILL
ALSO PRODUCE LARGE DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE DEEP AND SHALLOW LAYER
STEERING FLOWS. ACCORDINGLY...THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD
AMONG THE VARIOUS TRACK MODELS. A STRONGER AND DEEPER CYCLONE
WOULD TEND TO TRACK ALONG THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
IN LINE WITH THE NOGAPS...GFDL...AND DEEP BAM MODELS.
CONVERSELY...A WEAKER AND MORE SHALLOW SYSTEM WOULD TEND TO MOVE
CLOSER TO THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IN LINE WITH THE
GFS...ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND THE SHALLOW BAM MODELS. IT IS HARD
TO IMAGINE SERGIO REMAINING A HURRICANE MUCH LONGER IN LIGHT OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT. ACCORDINGLY...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST LEANS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

SERGIO IS AN EXCELLENT REMINDER THAT THE EFFECTS OF A HURRICANE CAN
EXTEND FAR FROM THE CENTER...AS RAINBANDS EXTEND WELL TO THE
NORTHEAST AND HAVE BEEN AFFECTING COASTAL PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO TODAY. IT IS FOR THIS REASON...AND THE HIGHER THAN NORMAL
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY...THAT INTERESTS IN MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SERGIO.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/0300Z 13.8N 102.7W 70 KT
12HR VT 17/1200Z 14.5N 102.9W 65 KT
24HR VT 18/0000Z 15.1N 103.4W 60 KT
36HR VT 18/1200Z 15.8N 104.2W 55 KT
48HR VT 19/0000Z 16.7N 105.0W 55 KT
72HR VT 20/0000Z 18.0N 106.5W 45 KT
96HR VT 21/0000Z 19.5N 108.5W 35 KT
120HR VT 22/0000Z 21.5N 111.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER RHOME
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#82 Postby Chacor » Fri Nov 17, 2006 3:57 am

Down to a TS.

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 170843
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212006
100 AM PST FRI NOV 17 2006

SERGIO APPEARS TO BE SHEARING APART THIS MORNING...WITH THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER AT LEAST PARTLY EXPOSED ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION. ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY
OF WISCONSIN SHOW ABOUT 20 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AT THE PRESENT
TIME. WHILE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 06Z WERE STILL AT
HURRICANE STRENGTH...THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE HAS DECREASED
SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE THEN...AND THUS SERGIO IS DOWNGRADED TO A
TROPICAL STORM.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 350/3. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES A BROAD MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 20N112W...WITH
BROAD MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE LOW NEAR
NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE LOW
TO MOVE WESTWARD UNDER THE RIDGE...WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD
AND SOUTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL MEXICO. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS SPLIT
ROUGHLY INTO TWO CLUSTERS. THE FIRST... WHICH INCLUDES THE CONU...
THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE...THE NOGAPS...AND THE GFDL...CALL FOR A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH THAT MOTION
CONTINUING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SECOND...WHICH
INCLUDES THE GFS...THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...THE UKMET...AND THE BAM
SHALLOW...CALLS FOR A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS DOWN
THE MIDDLE OF THE FIRST CLUSTER. HOWEVER...IF SERGIO TOTALLY
SHEARS APART LOW-LEVEL STEERING WILL BECOME PREDOMINANT LEADING TO
A TRACK SIMILAR TO THE SECOND CLUSTER. SOME ADJUSTMENT OF THE
FORECAST TRACK MAY BE NECESSARY LATER TODAY DEPENDING ON HOW THE
STRUCTURE OF SERGIO EVOLVES.

WHILE SERGIO IS CURRENTLY IN A RATHER UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...THE
LARGE-SCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE SHEAR WILL DECREASE
SLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT 48 HR...ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASE IN
UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE. BASED ON THIS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST
WILL CALL FOR THE CURRENT WEAKENING TO STOP IN 12-24 HR. THIS PART
OF THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO...BUT WEAKER THAN...THE
SHIPS AND SUPERENSEMBLE MODELS. AFTER 48 HR...THE LARGE-SCALE
MODELS AGREE THAT THE SHEAR WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY...WHICH
SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING AND EVENTUAL DISSIPATION BY 120 HR. IF THE
CURRENT SHEAR NOT DECREASE...SERGIO MAY DISSIPATE EARLIER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST.

THE WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED IN THE BASIS OF A 0100Z QUIKSCAT
OVERPASS. RAINBANDS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE MEXICAN COAST...AND
INTERESTS IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF SERGIO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/0900Z 14.0N 102.8W 60 KT
12HR VT 17/1800Z 14.6N 103.0W 55 KT
24HR VT 18/0600Z 15.2N 103.5W 50 KT
36HR VT 18/1800Z 15.9N 104.4W 50 KT
48HR VT 19/0600Z 16.7N 105.4W 50 KT
72HR VT 20/0600Z 18.0N 107.0W 40 KT
96HR VT 21/0600Z 19.5N 109.5W 30 KT
120HR VT 22/0600Z 21.0N 112.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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#83 Postby Chacor » Fri Nov 17, 2006 8:29 am

Image

Image

That's not very organised.
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#84 Postby cycloneye » Fri Nov 17, 2006 2:43 pm

WTPZ41 KNHC 171432
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212006
700 AM PST FRI NOV 17 2006

THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BEEN DETERIORATING AND NOW CONSISTS OF A
SHAPELESS MASS OF CLOUDS. ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN NO MICROWAVE DATA
OVER THE SYSTEM DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...CONVENTIONAL
IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED WEST OF THE
REMAINING CONVECTION. T-NUMBERS STILL SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 55 KNOTS. HOWEVER...THE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS ALREADY OVER THE
SYSTEM AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO DECREASE. THEREFORE A GRADUAL
WEAKENING IS FORECAST.

THE INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAIN. SERGIO APPEARS TO BE
DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 3 KNOTS BUT WITH A
DEVELOPING RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE...A TURN
TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST SHOULD BEGIN SOON. FURTHERMORE...SERGIO
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY BECOME STEERED NORTHWESTWARD
BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE TRACK GUIDANCE
WHICH UNANIMOUSLY SHOW THE TURN TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO.

RAINBANDS APPROACHING THE SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO HAVE BEGUN TO WEAKEN.
THEREFORE... THE POTENTIAL RAINFALL THREAT HAS DIMINISHED.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/1500Z 14.2N 102.5W 55 KT
12HR VT 18/0000Z 14.7N 102.5W 50 KT
24HR VT 18/1200Z 15.5N 103.0W 45 KT
36HR VT 19/0000Z 16.5N 104.0W 40 KT
48HR VT 19/1200Z 17.0N 105.0W 35 KT
72HR VT 20/1200Z 18.0N 107.0W 30 KT
96HR VT 21/1200Z 19.0N 109.0W 25 KT
120HR VT 22/1200Z 20.0N 112.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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#85 Postby cycloneye » Fri Nov 17, 2006 2:44 pm

TROPICAL STORM SERGIO (EP212006) ON 20061117 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
061117 1800 061118 0600 061118 1800 061119 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.9N 102.5W 14.9N 102.4W 15.8N 102.9W 17.1N 103.3W
BAMM 13.9N 102.5W 14.6N 102.8W 15.2N 103.7W 16.0N 104.6W
LBAR 13.9N 102.5W 14.2N 102.4W 14.8N 102.6W 15.4N 103.0W
SHIP 40KTS 32KTS 29KTS 30KTS
DSHP 40KTS 32KTS 29KTS 30KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
061119 1800 061120 1800 061121 1800 061122 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.3N 103.3W 21.1N 103.6W 24.6N 103.5W 28.3N 100.7W
BAMM 16.7N 105.3W 18.1N 107.5W 20.1N 109.6W 21.6N 110.3W
LBAR 15.8N 103.2W 16.8N 103.5W 18.2N 101.1W 19.5N 98.5W
SHIP 30KTS 27KTS 21KTS 0KTS
DSHP 30KTS 27KTS 21KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.9N LONCUR = 102.5W DIRCUR = 0DEG SPDCUR = 1KT
LATM12 = 13.7N LONM12 = 102.6W DIRM12 = 33DEG SPDM12 = 2KT
LATM24 = 13.2N LONM24 = 102.7W
WNDCUR = 40KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 60KT
CENPRS = 1002MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 60NM RD34SE = 60NM RD34SW = 45NM RD34NW = 45NM


Almost a major 2 days ago and now to almost nothing.
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#86 Postby cycloneye » Fri Nov 17, 2006 3:36 pm

585
WTPZ41 KNHC 172035
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212006
100 PM PST FRI NOV 17 2006

SERGIO'S LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS SEPARATED FROM THE DEEP
CONVECTION...WHICH HAS BEEN DISLOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST BY
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT OF THE
CYCLONE'S POSITION TO THE SOUTH WAS MADE ONCE VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY WAS AVAILABLE THIS MORNING. SERGIO'S CURRENT MOTION IS A
SLOW DRIFT TO THE NORTH. THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST AND ACCELERATE SOMEWHAT AS IT BECOMES STEERED BY THE
LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE RIDGE. THE
FORECAST TRACK GOES WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS MODEL IN THE FIRST 24
HOURS...WHICH HAS AN UNREALISTIC INITIAL MOTION TO THE WEST.

INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF ABOUT 40 KT WERE PROVIDED BY THE CIRA AND
CIMSS TECHNIQUES FROM A 1227 UTC AMSU PASS. HOWEVER...A BLEND OF
THE DVORAK CI AND DATA-T NUMBERS FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFGW SUGGEST
AN INTENSITY OF 45 TO 50 KT AT 18 UTC. GIVEN THE CONTINUED
DETERIORATION OF THE CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND THE AMSU
VALUES...THE ANALYZED INTENSITY IS SET AT 40 KT. DESPITE RATHER
WARM SSTS...THE IMPACT OF WIND SHEAR AND A STABLE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO CAUSE SERGIO TO WEAKEN. THE FORECAST INTENSITY IS
CLOSE TO SHIPS AND THE FSU SUPER-ENSEMBLE...BUT IS SUBSTANTIALLY
BELOW THE GFDL MODEL WHICH...FOR SOME REASON...CONTINUES TO PREDICT
SERGIO TO BE A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/2100Z 14.0N 102.6W 40 KT
12HR VT 18/0600Z 14.3N 102.7W 35 KT
24HR VT 18/1800Z 14.8N 102.9W 30 KT
36HR VT 19/0600Z 15.6N 103.6W 30 KT
48HR VT 19/1800Z 16.3N 104.2W 25 KT
72HR VT 20/1800Z 17.5N 107.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/LANDSEA
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#87 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Nov 17, 2006 3:43 pm

Image

Sergio is coughing!!!
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#88 Postby cycloneye » Fri Nov 17, 2006 8:16 pm

TROPICAL STORM SERGIO (EP212006) ON 20061118 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
061118 0000 061118 1200 061119 0000 061119 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.3N 102.9W 15.3N 102.9W 16.6N 103.3W 18.2N 103.2W
BAMM 14.3N 102.9W 14.9N 103.7W 15.8N 104.9W 16.8N 105.8W
LBAR 14.3N 102.9W 15.0N 103.4W 15.9N 104.0W 16.8N 104.3W
SHIP 35KTS 31KTS 31KTS 34KTS
DSHP 35KTS 31KTS 31KTS 34KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
061120 0000 061121 0000 061122 0000 061123 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 19.4N 102.6W 21.6N 100.4W 21.1N 96.7W 18.2N 94.9W
BAMM 17.3N 106.7W 18.3N 109.1W 20.0N 111.3W 21.7N 112.1W
LBAR 17.1N 104.4W 17.9N 103.1W 19.1N 98.9W 20.6N 96.1W
SHIP 36KTS 34KTS 27KTS 0KTS
DSHP 36KTS 34KTS 27KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.3N LONCUR = 102.9W DIRCUR = 315DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 13.8N LONM12 = 102.5W DIRM12 = 26DEG SPDM12 = 1KT
LATM24 = 13.5N LONM24 = 102.7W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 50KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 60NM RD34SE = 60NM RD34SW = 45NM RD34NW = 45NM

$$

Almost a depression,if it's not one already.
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#89 Postby cycloneye » Fri Nov 17, 2006 9:49 pm

940
WTPZ41 KNHC 180248
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212006
700 PM PST FRI NOV 17 2006

AFTER BECOMING ALMOST COMPLETELY EXPOSED EARLIER TODAY...A NEW BURST
OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY OCCURRED NORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION. IN LIGHT OF THIS RECENT TREND...SERGIO IS MAINTAINED
AS A 40-KT TROPICAL STORM. WHILE THE CYCLONE COULD CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND DRY/STABLE AIR ARE EXPECTED TO
ULTIMATELY CAUSE WEAKENING.

SERGIO HAS MADE AN ABRUPT TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL HOURS WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 315/6. A GENERAL
WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED UNTIL
DISSIPATION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SOUTH OF
THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES TOWARD THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE IN ANTICIPATION OF THE CYCLONE BECOMING INCREASINGLY
SHALLOW. THIS TRACK IS IN BETWEEN THE SHALLOW AND MEDIUM BAM
MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/0300Z 14.5N 103.1W 40 KT
12HR VT 18/1200Z 15.1N 103.7W 35 KT
24HR VT 19/0000Z 15.9N 104.8W 30 KT
36HR VT 19/1200Z 16.5N 106.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 20/0000Z 17.0N 107.4W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER RHOME

Still hanging as a storm.
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#90 Postby Chacor » Sat Nov 18, 2006 3:15 am

Code: Select all

271
WHXX01 KMIA 180640
CHGE77
 
 DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
 PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.
 
  NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
  TROPICAL STORM     SERGIO (EP212006) ON 20061118  0600 UTC
 
          ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS...   ...36 HRS...
          061118  0600   061118  1800   061119  0600   061119  1800
 
           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD    14.7N 103.1W   15.9N 103.3W   17.2N 103.3W   18.5N 102.6W
  BAMM    14.7N 103.1W   15.7N 104.1W   16.6N 105.0W   17.3N 105.9W
  LBAR    14.7N 103.1W   15.5N 103.3W   16.4N 103.5W   17.1N 103.7W
  SHIP        45KTS          48KTS          50KTS          48KTS
  DSHP        45KTS          48KTS          50KTS          48KTS
 
          ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS...   ..120 HRS...
          061120  0600   061121  0600   061122  0600   061123  0600
 
           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD    19.2N 101.3W   19.1N  96.5W   16.0N  93.4W   13.3N  94.0W
  BAMM    17.7N 106.9W   19.1N 109.3W   21.0N 110.7W   21.3N 111.1W
  LBAR    17.5N 103.5W   18.7N 101.8W   19.6N  98.2W   20.6N  95.6W
  SHIP        46KTS          38KTS          25KTS           0KTS
  DSHP        46KTS          38KTS          25KTS           0KTS
 
               ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
  LATCUR =  14.7N LONCUR = 103.1W DIRCUR = 325DEG SPDCUR =   5KT
  LATM12 =  13.9N LONM12 = 102.5W DIRM12 = 322DEG SPDM12 =   3KT
  LATM24 =  13.7N LONM24 = 102.6W
  WNDCUR =   45KT RMAXWD =   15NM WNDM12 =   40KT
  CENPRS = 1000MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   M
  RD34NE =   60NM RD34SE =   30NM RD34SW =   30NM RD34NW =  45NM
 
 $$



Restrengthened to 45 kt.
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#91 Postby Chacor » Sat Nov 18, 2006 3:40 am

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 180835
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212006
100 AM PST SAT NOV 18 2006

SERGIO CONTINUES TO GENERATE DEEP CONVECTION OVER OR VERY NEAR THE
DIFFICULT TO LOCATE CENTER. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL
THREE AGENCIES ARE 45 KT. AN AMSU PASS AT 0509Z SHOWED A
WELL-DEFINED CURVED BAND IN THE MID LEVELS...BUT WAS NOT CONCLUSIVE
AS TO THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER LOCATION. A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 00Z
SUPPORTED 35-40 KT WINDS...BUT THAT WAS BEFORE THE LATEST ROUND OF
CONVECTION. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 45 KT IN ACCORD
WITH THE SATELLITE ESTIMATES AND THE IMPROVED MICROWAVE
PRESENTATION.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 325/5. SUBSTANTIAL
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES...SO THE TRACK...AT LEAST IN THE
SHORT RUN...WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CONVECTION THE SYSTEM CAN
MAINTAIN. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH SHOULD TURN THE TRACK MORE TO THE WEST.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN HOW THE UPPER FLOW OVER
SERGIO EVOLVES AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS...AND THIS FLOW WILL HAVE A
LOT TO SAY ABOUT HOW THE VERTICALLY COHERENCE OF THE CIRCULATION
EVOLVES. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING A MORE ZONAL FLOW WITH
STRONGER SHEAR THAN THE UKMET OR NOGAPS MODELS...PARTICULARLY AFTER
ABOUT 24 HOURS. GIVEN THE PRESENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS...I HAVE
SHIFTED THE TRACK A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
THE NEW TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE GUNA/CONU/FSSE CONSENSUS. AT THE
PRESENT TIME...ONLY THE NOGAPS AND GFNI MODELS INDICATE A DIRECT
THREAT TO MEXICO. HOWEVER...MOISTURE FROM SERGIO WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM NORTHEASTWARD OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO...WHERE IT COULD INDUCE
SOME DANGEROUS RAINFALLS.

BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS ARE FORECASTING MORE STRENGTHENING...
AND IF THE UKMET/NOGAPS UPPER-LEVEL FLOW FORECASTS ARE CORRECT THIS
COULD HAPPEN. HOWEVER...THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND WINDS SEEM TO
ME TO BE MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE GFS/ECMWF ANALYSIS...SO I AM NOT
WILLING TO MAKE THAT LARGE A CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST JUST YET. HOWEVER...THE CURRENT FORECAST DOES ASSUME THAT
SERGIO WILL BE ABLE TO HOLD ITS OWN AGAINST THE SHEAR FOR ANOTHER
DAY OR SO BEFORE SUCCUMBING.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/0900Z 14.9N 103.3W 45 KT
12HR VT 18/1800Z 15.5N 103.8W 45 KT
24HR VT 19/0600Z 16.3N 104.5W 40 KT
36HR VT 19/1800Z 16.8N 105.8W 35 KT
48HR VT 20/0600Z 17.0N 107.0W 25 KT
72HR VT 21/0600Z 17.5N 109.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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#92 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 18, 2006 8:03 am

TROPICAL STORM SERGIO (EP212006) ON 20061118 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
061118 1200 061119 0000 061119 1200 061120 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 15.0N 103.9W 16.3N 104.0W 17.7N 103.8W 18.7N 102.9W
BAMM 15.0N 103.9W 16.0N 105.0W 16.8N 105.9W 17.2N 106.9W
LBAR 15.0N 103.9W 15.8N 104.4W 16.7N 104.9W 17.2N 105.1W
SHIP 45KTS 46KTS 46KTS 45KTS
DSHP 45KTS 46KTS 46KTS 45KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
061120 1200 061121 1200 061122 1200 061123 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 19.4N 101.4W 19.5N 97.0W 16.6N 93.7W 13.7N 93.3W
BAMM 17.5N 108.0W 18.6N 110.0W 19.5N 111.2W 19.1N 112.1W
LBAR 17.8N 104.9W 19.4N 102.9W 20.6N 99.6W 22.3N 96.8W
SHIP 43KTS 38KTS 29KTS 16KTS
DSHP 43KTS 38KTS 29KTS 16KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.0N LONCUR = 103.9W DIRCUR = 310DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 14.3N LONM12 = 102.9W DIRM12 = 324DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 13.8N LONM24 = 102.5W
WNDCUR = 45KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 40KT
CENPRS = 1000MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 60NM RD34SE = 30NM RD34SW = 30NM RD34NW = 45NM

$$
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#93 Postby Chacor » Sat Nov 18, 2006 9:36 am

WTPZ41 KNHC 181430
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212006
700 AM PST SAT NOV 18 2006

CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MICROWAVE DATA INDICATED THAT
EARLIER TODAY THE CENTER WAS LOCATED TO THE WEST OF A CYCLONICALLY
CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND. HOWEVER...NEW DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY
DEVELOPING NEAR THE CENTER AND THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES STILL
SUPPORT 45 KNOTS. ALTHOUGH THE OCEAN IS QUITE WARM...IT AINT ALL
ABOUT THE OCEAN. ACCORDING TO THE GLOBAL MODELS...THE SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER SERGIO RESULTING IN A GRADUAL WEAKENING.
SOME GUIDANCE MAINTAIN OR RESTRENGTHEN SERGIO BUT THIS SOLUTION IS
HARD TO ACCEPT AT THIS TIME WITH THE ANTICIPATED INCREASE IN THE
WIND SHEAR. THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME INTENSIFICATION CANNOT BE
RULED OUT IF...UNEXPECTETLY...THE SHEAR RELAXES A BIT.

SERGIO APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT
ABOUT 4 KNOTS. THE EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH
OF THE CYCLONE HAS MATERIALIZED AND THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD
FORCE SERGIO ON A NORTHWEST TO WEST TRACK AWAY FROM THE COAST OF
MEXICO UNTIL DISSIPATION IN ABOUT 3 TO 4 DAYS. THIS IS CONSISTENT
WITH MOST OF THE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/1500Z 15.2N 104.1W 45 KT
12HR VT 19/0000Z 15.8N 104.8W 40 KT
24HR VT 19/1200Z 16.5N 105.8W 35 KT
36HR VT 20/0000Z 16.5N 107.0W 30 KT
48HR VT 20/1200Z 16.5N 108.0W 25 KT
72HR VT 21/1200Z 16.5N 110.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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#94 Postby brunota2003 » Sat Nov 18, 2006 12:14 pm

IT AINT ALL ABOUT THE OCEAN. ACCORDING TO THE GLOBAL MODELS...

who said aint aint a word? When one of the mets writes the word "aint" in the official discussion...the NHC just might be located in the south :lol:
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#95 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 18, 2006 5:14 pm

WTPZ41 KNHC 182041
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212006
100 PM PST SAT NOV 18 2006

DESPITE MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...SERGIO IS MAINTAINING DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER OF ITS CIRCULATION TODAY. DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 3.0 AND 3.5. ASSUMING THAT
SERGIO'S POSITION IS ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE CONVECTION...THE
INTENSITY IS ANALYZED TO REMAIN 45 KT AT THE LOW END OF THE DVORAK
ESTIMATES. SERGIO REMAINS OVER QUITE WARM WATER AND A CONDUCIVE
DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER...AS THE SHEAR IS PREDICTED BY ALL
GLOBAL MODELS TO INCREASE TO AT LEAST 30 KT IN THE NEXT 36 TO 48
HOURS...GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST. THE INTENSITY PREDICTION IS
NEAR THE STATISTICAL SHIPS AND FSU SUPER-ENSEMBLE MODELS...BUT IS
SLIGHTLY ABOVE THAT FORECAST IN THE LAST ADVISORY.

SERGIO IS MOVING 310/6 ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP
LAYER RIDGE. IF THE VERTICAL SHEAR WEAKENS THE CYCLONE TO A
SHALLOWER SYSTEM...THEN THE CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE TRACK FORECAST
IS BASED UPON THE MODEL CONSENSUS MINUS THE GFDL...WHICH HAS AN
UNREALISTIC INITIAL LOOP.

A 1320 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS ALLOWED FOR A CONTRACTION OF THE GALE FORCE
WIND RADII TO BE ANALYZED.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/2100Z 15.6N 104.7W 45 KT
12HR VT 19/0600Z 16.0N 105.5W 45 KT
24HR VT 19/1800Z 16.5N 106.2W 40 KT
36HR VT 20/0600Z 16.8N 107.2W 35 KT
48HR VT 20/1800Z 17.1N 108.5W 30 KT
72HR VT 21/1800Z 17.5N 111.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/LANDSEA
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#96 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 18, 2006 7:30 pm

TROPICAL STORM SERGIO (EP212006) ON 20061119 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
061119 0000 061119 1200 061120 0000 061120 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 15.6N 104.9W 16.9N 104.6W 18.0N 103.7W 18.9N 102.5W
BAMM 15.6N 104.9W 16.3N 105.6W 16.5N 106.1W 16.5N 106.8W
LBAR 15.6N 104.9W 16.3N 105.3W 17.2N 105.4W 17.9N 105.1W
SHIP 40KTS 37KTS 35KTS 34KTS
DSHP 40KTS 37KTS 35KTS 34KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
061121 0000 061122 0000 061123 0000 061124 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 19.7N 100.8W 19.3N 96.8W 17.0N 95.2W 15.1N 94.7W
BAMM 16.7N 107.6W 17.6N 109.2W 18.2N 110.7W 17.5N 112.8W
LBAR 18.4N 104.2W 19.5N 102.0W 20.9N 99.6W 23.2N 98.5W
SHIP 34KTS 30KTS 24KTS 16KTS
DSHP 34KTS 30KTS 24KTS 16KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.6N LONCUR = 104.9W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 15.0N LONM12 = 103.8W DIRM12 = 302DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 14.3N LONM24 = 102.9W
WNDCUR = 40KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 45KT
CENPRS = 1002MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 50NM RD34SE = 30NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 50NM
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#97 Postby Chacor » Sat Nov 18, 2006 9:28 pm

WTPZ41 KNHC 190225
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212006
700 PM PST SAT NOV 18 2006

AFTER A BRIEF WANE IN THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN...A NEW SMALL BURST OF
CONVECTION HAS FORMED NEAR AND NORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.
DVORAK SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE DECREASED SLIGHTLY...AND THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS A BLEND OF T3.0 AND T2.5 DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/05 KT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. SERGIO IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED TO THE NORTH
OF THE CYCLONE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY LESS THAN THAT OF THE GFDL MODEL FORECAST
DUE TO SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS IMPEDING THE WESTWARD MOTION
SOMEWHAT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
TRACK AND REMAINS NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL...GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE...AND ECMWF
MODEL TRACKS.

GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO EXCEED 30 KT WITHIN THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS. WITH SERGIO
REMAINING OVER 29C SSTS...THERE MAY BE OCCASIONAL BRIEF CONVECTIVE
BURSTS THAT WILL MAINTAIN THE SYSTEM AS A MARGINAL TROPICAL CYCLONE
FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO. HOWEVER...BY 72 HOURS SERGIO IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER COOLER SSTS AND EVENTUALLY SUCCUMB TO THE
EFFECTS OF HOSTILE SHEAR CONDITIONS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/0300Z 15.7N 105.1W 40 KT
12HR VT 19/1200Z 16.1N 105.8W 35 KT
24HR VT 20/0000Z 16.5N 106.7W 35 KT
36HR VT 20/1200Z 16.8N 107.8W 30 KT
48HR VT 21/0000Z 17.1N 109.1W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
72HR VT 22/0000Z 17.5N 111.6W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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#98 Postby Chacor » Sun Nov 19, 2006 3:06 am

810
WHXX01 KMIA 190722
CHGE77

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM SERGIO (EP212006) ON 20061119 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
061119 0600 061119 1800 061120 0600 061120 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 15.6N 105.1W 17.0N 104.4W 18.0N 103.3W 19.1N 101.8W
BAMM 15.6N 105.1W 16.2N 105.8W 16.5N 106.5W 16.9N 107.4W
LBAR 15.6N 105.1W 16.1N 104.9W 16.9N 104.6W 17.6N 103.9W
SHIP 40KTS 33KTS 29KTS 27KTS
DSHP 40KTS 33KTS 29KTS 27KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
061121 0600 061122 0600 061123 0600 061124 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 19.6N 99.8W 18.3N 96.2W 15.8N 94.8W 13.7N 94.5W
BAMM 17.3N 108.3W 18.6N 110.2W 19.2N 111.4W 18.7N 113.3W
LBAR 18.1N 102.6W 19.6N 99.9W 21.5N 98.3W 23.3N 97.1W
SHIP 26KTS 23KTS 19KTS 0KTS
DSHP 26KTS 23KTS 19KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.6N LONCUR = 105.1W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 3KT
LATM12 = 15.3N LONM12 = 104.4W DIRM12 = 300DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 14.7N LONM24 = 103.4W
WNDCUR = 40KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 45KT
CENPRS = 1002MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 50NM RD34SE = 30NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 30NM

$$
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#99 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 19, 2006 6:51 am

WTPZ41 KNHC 190853
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212006
100 AM PST SUN NOV 19 2006

SERGIO REMAINS A SHEARED TROPICAL STORM WITH AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CENTER AND CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. DVORAK
DATA-T NUMBERS FROM ALL AGENCIES HAVE RISEN TO 3.0... CORRESPONDING
TO 45 KT. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE INCREASE IN COLD CLOUD TOPS APPEARS
TO BE DUE TO AN EXPANDING CIRRUS CANOPY AND NOT TO ANY SUBSTANTIAL
INCREASE IN CONVECTION...SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY REMAINS 40 KT.
WEAKENING REMAINS THE EXPECTATION SINCE THE SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL
SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. OCEAN
TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 29 CELSIUS...HOWEVER...SO SERGIO WILL
PROBABLY WEAKEN GRADUALLY. THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE LATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE.

EVEN THOUGH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS IN PLACE TO THE NORTHWEST OF
SERGIO...WHICH IS TRYING TO FORCE THE CYCLONE WESTWARD OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLIES ARE
IMPEDING THAT MOTION. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...PERHAPS DUE WESTWARD AT ABOUT 2 KT.
DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST
THE RIDGE TO NOT MOVE MUCH...SO THE MOTION OF SERGIO DURING THAT
PERIOD WILL PROBABLY DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CONVECTION IT MAINTAINS AND
THEREFORE HOW MUCH INFLUENCE THE UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLIES HAVE.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST PRESUMES ENOUGH CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE AND
CALLS FOR A CONTINUED CRAWL TO THE WEST THROUGH 36 HOURS.
THEREAFTER IT IS ASSUMED THE CONVECTION WILL HAVE DECREASED AND THE
WEAKENING CYCLONE WILL BE STEERED A LITTLE FASTER BY THE LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL EASTERLIES TO THE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE THAT IS FORECAST TO
BUILD EASTWARD. SINCE THE TRACK FORECAST HINGES SO MUCH ON HOW
LONG THE CONVECTION HANGS ON...AND SINCE THERE IS SUCH DISPARITY IN
THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE...IT IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE NEW
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SOUTH OF AND SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/0900Z 15.6N 105.2W 40 KT
12HR VT 19/1800Z 15.7N 105.6W 35 KT
24HR VT 20/0600Z 15.8N 106.3W 30 KT
36HR VT 20/1800Z 15.9N 107.2W 30 KT
48HR VT 21/0600Z 16.2N 108.5W 25 KT
72HR VT 22/0600Z 16.5N 111.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KNABB
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#100 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 19, 2006 8:21 am

TROPICAL STORM SERGIO (EP212006) ON 20061119 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
061119 1200 061120 0000 061120 1200 061121 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 15.4N 105.4W 16.5N 104.1W 17.7N 102.9W 18.9N 101.3W
BAMM 15.4N 105.4W 15.8N 105.7W 16.1N 106.2W 16.5N 106.9W
LBAR 15.4N 105.4W 15.6N 105.4W 16.5N 105.2W 17.4N 104.5W
SHIP 40KTS 35KTS 32KTS 31KTS
DSHP 40KTS 35KTS 32KTS 31KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
061121 1200 061122 1200 061123 1200 061124 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 19.2N 99.4W 17.6N 96.1W 15.0N 93.9W 12.8N 92.9W
BAMM 17.1N 107.7W 18.1N 109.2W 17.9N 110.7W 17.0N 113.0W
LBAR 18.1N 103.4W 19.6N 101.5W 20.5N 99.8W 22.7N 98.9W
SHIP 31KTS 29KTS 25KTS 15KTS
DSHP 31KTS 29KTS 25KTS 15KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.4N LONCUR = 105.4W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 3KT
LATM12 = 15.6N LONM12 = 104.9W DIRM12 = 294DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 15.0N LONM24 = 103.8W
WNDCUR = 40KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 40KT
CENPRS = 1002MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 50NM RD34SE = 30NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$

Still hanging as a storm.
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