Typhoon (Durian) in WPAC - landfall in Philippines

[Chacor]

JMA agrees with rapid intensification - it's gone from 85 kt at 03Z to 100 kt at 06Z.

WTPQ20 RJTD 290600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0621 DURIAN (0621)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 290600UTC 13.2N 127.3E GOOD
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 220NM NORTHEAST 170NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 300600UTC 13.7N 123.5E 80NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
48HF 010600UTC 14.2N 119.7E 150NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
72HF 020600UTC 14.4N 116.4E 220NM 70%
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT =

[Typhoon Hunter]

ARRRRGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHH I should be there!!!!!!!!!
Oh well! Just about to speak to Geoff Mackley on the phone. I'll post an update shortly when I've established his plans!

[Coredesat]

PAGASA has just raised Storm Signal #4 for Catanduanes, making Durian the third storm in a row to warrant Signal #4 (Cimaron and Chebi).

[Chacor]

JT has gone back to calling for a super at first landfall (135 kt) and a Cat 3 impact on Manila (CPA 4 nm at 30/21Z).

[senorpepr]

Blah. Although I'm technically on vacation, I went into work to look at this and to talk to friends/co-workers.

Looks like I'll be spending a night or two in Tokyo. Joy. Normally I would be more excited, but when it takes away from seeing my fiancée, I get irritated.

I know we have some folks out there in Luzon awaiting an "exciting" impact, but personally, I'd love to see it quickly fizzle. I know--wishful thinking.

[Typhoon Hunter]

It's dropped another 5HPA, down to 920HPA now:

Issued at 09:00 UTC 29 Nov 2006
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0621 DURIAN (0621)

ANALYSIS
PSTN 290900UTC 13.2N 126.8E GOOD
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 220NM NORTHEAST 170NM SOUTHWEST

FORECAST
24HF 300900UTC 13.5N 123.1E 80NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
45HF 010600UTC 14.2N 119.7E 150NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
69HF 020600UTC 14.4N 116.4E 220NM 70%
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT

[Typhoon Hunter]

This is just unreal!
105kt 915HPA

Issued at 12:00 UTC 29 Nov 2006RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0621 DURIAN (0621)

ANALYSIS
PSTN 291200UTC 13.3N 126.4E GOOD
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 200NM NORTHEAST 160NM SOUTHWEST

FORECAST
24HF 301200UTC 13.4N 122.5E 80NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
48HF 011200UTC 13.9N 118.5E 150NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
72HF 021200UTC 14.7N 115.7E 220NM 70%
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT

[P.K.]

[Chacor]

258
TPPN10 PGTW 291202

A. TYPHOON 24W (DURIAN)

B. 29/1130Z

C. 13.2N/6

D. 126.3E/2

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T7.0/7.0/D3.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/06HRS (29/1130Z)

G. IR/EIR LLCC

01A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. 12NM OW EYE WITH A CMG SURROUNDING
RING YIELDS A DT OF 7.0. DBO DT. UNREPRESENTATIVE PT
EQUALS 6.0 AND AN UNREPRESENTATIVE MET OF 5.5. BROKE
CONSTRAINTS DUE RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM.

VIAULT

7.0 = 140 kt

[P.K.]

Just checked and this is only the 5th year since 1977 that there have been 7 100kt TYs in one year.

[Chacor]

If this forecast verifies, Manila is in for 95 kt winds. CPA to Manila: 0 nm at 010200!

[Chacor]

WDPN31 PGTW 291500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 24W WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 291200Z NOV TO 041200Z DEC 2006.
A. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 24W (DURIAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 325 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
B. STY 24W CONTINUES TO TRACK WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED NORTHWEST OF GUAM. THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE, WITH LANDFALL OCCURRING IN THE PHILIPPINE ISLANDS
JUST AFTER TAU 24. THE STORM IS FORECAST TO RESPOND TO A DEVELOPING
WEAKNESS IN THE STEERING RIDGE BY ASSUMING A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
AS IT CROSSES THE PHILIPPINES. HOWEVER, INTERACTION WITH TOPOGRAPHY
AND A DEVELOPING SURGE OF NORTHEASTERLY LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW AHEAD
OF THE STORM BETWEEN TAU 36 AND TAU 72 ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT NORTHWARD
PROGRESSION. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SCENARIO WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TCLAPS AND WBAR, WHICH DEPICT AN
IMMEDIATE, UNREALISTIC RECURVATURE INTO THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW. THIS
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS WITH
LESS EMPHASIS ON THE MODELS DEPICTING RECURVATURE.
C. STY 24W HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST TWELVE HOURS UNDER
THE COMBINED INFLUENCES OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND EXCELLENT UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE STORM IS CURRENTLY AT OR NEAR PEAK INTENSITY AND
IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY WEAKEN BETWEEN TAU 12 AND TAU 72 DUE TO
LAND INTERACTION AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN BOTH DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT
AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
D. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A PARTIAL 290915Z QUIKSCAT PASS
AND CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE OBSERVED IN RECENT INFRARED AND MICROWAVE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR
AN AVERAGE-SIZED SYSTEM.
E. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND ENTRAIN-
MANT OF DRIER AIR IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA ARE EXPECTED TO STEADILY
WEAKEN THE STORM. STRONG NORTHEASTERLY LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW CURRENTLY
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WILL GRADUALLY ASSUME A
MORE DOMINANT ROLE IN STEERING THE WEAKENING SYSTEM AND INDUCE A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST.
FORECAST TEAM: ALPHA//

[Typhoon Hunter]

EWRC currently happening?

This storm is fascinating, this season has been fascinating. Will try and get hold of Geoff tomorrow before all hell breaks loose in the Daet/Naga area. BTW the adminster of http://www.typhoon2000.com is based in Naga...I expect there'll be a lack of updates from them after landfall!!!

[Dave C]

I agree about the EWRC. If you run a loop you can see a well defined small eye shrink untill it dissappears at the end of the loop. It has about 6 hrs untill first landfall. Maybe we'll see a larger eye emerge in that time which would spread out strong winds over a larger area

[cycloneye]

Getting closer and closer to Luzon.Manila will get hammered.I am praying for those folks over there.

[Coredesat]

That was one quick EWRC...it already looks like it's finishing up.

EDIT: Here's a (large, 4 MB) animated GIF I made of Durian's rapid intensification and the beginnings of its eyewall replacement cycle:

http://d2rcr.cmcmoriginals.com/videos/24W-Durian.gif

[P.K.]

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0621 DURIAN (0621)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 291800UTC 13.4N 125.4E GOOD
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
50KT 85NM
30KT 200NM NORTHEAST 160NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 301800UTC 13.3N 121.6E 80NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
48HF 011800UTC 14.0N 117.9E 150NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
72HF 021800UTC 15.0N 115.5E 220NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT =

[Brent]

This one looks really bad.

Stay safe senor and everyone over there.

[HurricaneBill]

Wow, this is a terrible year for the Philippines.

Which is pretty odd. El Nino seasons tend to be quieter on the Philippines, while post El Nino seasons are harsher.

Aside from the large number of super typhoons (7), the WPAC just doesn't seem to be acknowledging the current El Nino out there.

Guam and the surrounding areas haven't been threatened by any strong typhoons. In fact, aside from Ioke and Yagi, there has been no eastward shift in typhoon activity usually seen with El Nino.

The number of storms this year is below average. Again, this usually happens in the season following an El Nino.

Japan has only been struck by one typhoon, Shanshan, as opposed to 2004 when numerous typhoons landfalled on Japan.

Of the 7 supers, none of them have exceeded 140 KT in intensity. Usually an El Nino season has a couple of particularly intense super typhoons around 150-155 KT.

Did El Nino just not reach the WPAC this year?

[brunota2003]

When I said it looked like it was getting ready to ramp up last night...I was not expecting that hopefully it weakens alot prior to landfall...but I have no good feelings for this storm...