Typhoon (Durian) in WPAC - landfall in Philippines

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CrazyC83
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#121 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Dec 01, 2006 3:47 pm

It is possible the death toll may exceed 1000 :cry:
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#122 Postby P.K. » Fri Dec 01, 2006 4:05 pm

Coredesat wrote:At this point Durian, with 468 deaths, is the second deadliest typhoon (and tropical cyclone) of 2006, behind Severe Tropical Storm Bilis (637 reported deaths).


China's yearly report quotes 849 killed or missing from Billis, and 588 from Saomai. It has been a very bad year for TC deaths in the area. http://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/tcc/document/creport/country_report_2006(China).doc (Page 31)
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#123 Postby Coredesat » Fri Dec 01, 2006 4:50 pm

Odd, that report says 654 dead and 208 missing from Bilis, and 456 dead and 110 missing from Saomai.
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#124 Postby Chacor » Sat Dec 02, 2006 9:26 am

According to Geoff Mackley it seems that more than 2,000 could be dead. :(
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#125 Postby P.K. » Sat Dec 02, 2006 2:09 pm

Durian is back up to 75kts (960hPa). The centre of the 72 hour forecast puts it just over the coast of Cambodia with 40kt winds.
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#126 Postby Chacor » Sat Dec 02, 2006 8:55 pm

Latest JMA advisory has Durian as a 35-kt TS in 72 hr at 10.9N 101.8E in the Gulf of Thailand, so this could be a basin-crosser.
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#127 Postby HurricaneBill » Sat Dec 02, 2006 9:54 pm

Chacor wrote:Latest JMA advisory has Durian as a 35-kt TS in 72 hr at 10.9N 101.8E in the Gulf of Thailand, so this could be a basin-crosser.


The last basin-crosser in that area was Typhoon Linda in 1997. Let's hope Durian isn't like her.

Overall, I think the last basin-crosser was Typhoon Vamei in 2001.

Chacor, did you experience that one?
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#128 Postby Chacor » Sat Dec 02, 2006 10:38 pm

I don't remember much, but winds were strong. Singapore was always to the south, so winds were reportedly only about 45 kt (a newspaper report from the day after it passed through reported 80 km/h winds) throughout.
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#129 Postby wxmann_91 » Sun Dec 03, 2006 2:41 am

The situation is really dire in the area. Reports were that several villages and families were wiped out and that body parts are being found miles away. Legazpi City was hard hit. The conservative estimate of the death toll is around 700.

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/world/2006 ... 749065.htm

In addition, the typhoon has unexpectedly reintensified with a mature eye, JT estimating it to be around 90 kt. It is expected to make landfall in Nha Trang, Vietnam as a marginal typhoon in 2 days.
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#130 Postby rockyman » Sun Dec 03, 2006 8:12 am

CNN: Death toll may be "in the thousands" :cry:

http://www.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/asiapcf/1 ... index.html
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#131 Postby Chacor » Sun Dec 03, 2006 8:33 am

At 12Z:

JMA 48 hr 11.6N 104.9E - directly over Phnom Penh, Cambodia.
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#132 Postby Vlad » Mon Dec 04, 2006 6:46 am

HurricaneBill wrote:
Chacor wrote:Latest JMA advisory has Durian as a 35-kt TS in 72 hr at 10.9N 101.8E in the Gulf of Thailand, so this could be a basin-crosser.
The last basin-crosser in that area was Typhoon Linda in 1997.
IIRC, Linda didn't survive to the Bay of Bengal (at least I can't find continuance at the unisys archive: http://tinyurl.com/y4y2np) ....unless I'm confused as to where the basin crossing "line" is located.

(Somehow, it's appropriate in an ironic sense that a storm named "Durian" should strike Thailand, especially if Thailand submitted the name!)
Last edited by Vlad on Mon Dec 04, 2006 3:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#133 Postby Chacor » Mon Dec 04, 2006 7:29 am

The Unisys archive ends Linda as a 50-kt TS over the northern Isthmus of Kra.

Image

That is Linda in the Andaman Sea (Indian Ocean).

Image
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#134 Postby Chacor » Mon Dec 04, 2006 7:32 am

Image

Vamei's track.
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#135 Postby Chacor » Mon Dec 04, 2006 9:21 am

JTWC 15Z:

Image
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#136 Postby P.K. » Mon Dec 04, 2006 10:50 am

Pressure down 5hPa on three hours ago.

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0621 DURIAN (0621)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 041500UTC 10.7N 109.2E FAIR
MOVE SW 09KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
50KT 30NM
30KT 160NM NORTH 110NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 051500UTC 10.0N 105.6E 80NM 70%
MOVE WSW 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
45HF 061200UTC 09.7N 102.1E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =
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#137 Postby P.K. » Mon Dec 04, 2006 11:07 am

Not many storms have historically crossed over to this area, this map shows all storms that passed within 150km of the 1200 position today with the different colours showing the intensity at each point taken from Digital Typhoon.

Red = TY
Green = STS
Yellow = TS
Blue = TD
Purple = ET
Turquoise = Pre 1977 with no wind speeds in the BT.

Image
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#138 Postby P.K. » Mon Dec 04, 2006 2:07 pm

Upgraded back to a TY.

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0621 DURIAN (0621) UPGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 041800UTC 10.4N 108.4E FAIR
MOVE WSW 13KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 160NM NORTH 110NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 051800UTC 09.5N 104.6E 80NM 70%
MOVE WSW 09KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
48HF 061800UTC 08.8N 101.3E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION

Image
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#139 Postby Vlad » Mon Dec 04, 2006 3:12 pm

Durian has dropped below the lattitude of any vertical topography in Vietnam, and given the maintenance of -80C tops and excellent outflow despite being driven southwest over comparitively cooler water, my guesstimate is for a troublingly strong storm in the GoT and BoB. There's a definitely a lot of heat-content to play with here: https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/NCO ... bl_sst.gif
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#140 Postby HurricaneBill » Mon Dec 04, 2006 3:19 pm

And it's going through the same area as Linda. Hopefully, not with the same results.

I always found it ironic that there was a powerful Category 5 hurricane named Linda in the EPAC that remained over sea and caused no damage or deaths. Yet, a Category 1 typhoon named Linda in the WPAC leaves 4502 dead/missing.

I read that the reason Linda was so deadly was because that area of Vietnam is not used to seeing typhoons strike.
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