Typhoon (Durian) in WPAC - landfall in Philippines

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Vlad

#141 Postby Vlad » Mon Dec 04, 2006 3:39 pm

I read that the reason Linda was so deadly was because that area of Vietnam is not used to seeing typhoons strike.
A more jaundiced explanation would be that Vietnam remains a backward dictatorship where civilians in the hinterlands, even if they have a television (necessitating electricity, a luxury itself), aren't likely to be receiving any timely information from state-controlled sources. So...guys in reed huts along the riverbank get creamed by a surge-bore rampaging up a SE-facing delta. Durian's angle of approach (out of ENE rather than SE) makes that scenerio unlikely to repeat; but provided the convective core remains intact during the traversal, it could be a stronger storm than Linda in western GoT and BoB, since it's coming several weeks earlier climatologically, before the winter offshore monsoon has had time to significantly cool SSTs and cross-equatorial high-atltitude shear more prevalent as the main ITCZ flops well south.
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Coredesat

#142 Postby Coredesat » Mon Dec 04, 2006 4:16 pm

Believe it or not, it's a typhoon again:

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0621 DURIAN (0621) UPGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 041800UTC 10.4N 108.4E FAIR
MOVE WSW 13KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 160NM NORTH 110NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 051800UTC 09.5N 104.6E 80NM 70%
MOVE WSW 09KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
48HF 061800UTC 08.8N 101.3E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION

I'm wondering what JMA's reasoning is for making it a TD in the Gulf of Thailand. There's little shear and the environment there is somewhat more favorable (dry air isn't quite as bad on the water vapor satellite images), and the land it's forecast to pass over is fairly flat.
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Vlad

#143 Postby Vlad » Mon Dec 04, 2006 5:18 pm

It appears to have weakened again on latest IR (-70 instead of -80 tops), but the eye remains offshore.
I'm wondering what JMA's reasoning is for making it a TD in the Gulf of Thailand. There's little shear and the environment there is somewhat more favorable (dry air isn't quite as bad on the water vapor satellite images)
Even at the winter solstice, the sun-angle is pretty damn good at 10N for evap -- dry air doesn't stay dry long down that low unless there's extreme subsidence going on. Last night's VIS also showed a generous low-level moist feed coming in from the south, which suggests that dry air will merely shrink the system rather than kill it. I'm guessinf that the dry air in question is the result of adiabatic descent after northeasterly surface flow has gone up and over the mountains of Vietnam on its way southwest around the sub-high over the BoB. As Durian assumes a more S-N relative position to the sub-high, flow should become easterly (read: no more dry air); Durian should also begin to accelerate.
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#144 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Mon Dec 04, 2006 6:31 pm

It looks to be going just south of land, which it will be able to keep more of its strength. This will likely make it into the North Indian ocean.
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#145 Postby P.K. » Mon Dec 04, 2006 7:55 pm

Back down to a 55kt STS.

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0621 DURIAN (0621) DOWNGRADED FROM TY
ANALYSIS
PSTN 050000UTC 10.0N 107.0E FAIR
MOVE WSW 14KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
50KT 30NM
30KT 100NM SOUTHEAST 80NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 060000UTC 09.0N 102.7E 80NM 70%
MOVE WSW 10KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
48HF 070000UTC 08.4N 098.7E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION

Image
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#146 Postby P.K. » Mon Dec 04, 2006 8:22 pm

A bit worrying if the people don't believe there is a significant TC just off the coast.

Another 6,000 people have been evacuated from neighbouring provinces Ninh Thuan and Phu Yen, but Ninh Thuan Governor Hoang Thi Ut Lan said some of those ordered out had returned home.

"Many people who were moved have decided to go back to their houses because it's still sunny," she told AP. "It is really a problem for us now."

The BBC's Bill Hayton in Hanoi says that many people have simply refused to believe that a storm is coming.


http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/6207178.stm
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#147 Postby HurricaneBill » Mon Dec 04, 2006 10:55 pm

P.K. wrote:A bit worrying if the people don't believe there is a significant TC just off the coast.


Durian's swing southward also interfered with evacuation. I read that one province said 2000 fishing vessels were still at sea!

Also, one news article has already reported 10 dead in Vietnam.
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#148 Postby Chacor » Mon Dec 04, 2006 11:25 pm

Landfall in Ben Tre Province south of Thành Pho Ho Chí Minh (Ho Chi Minh City).
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Coredesat

#149 Postby Coredesat » Tue Dec 05, 2006 1:17 am

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Vlad

#150 Postby Vlad » Tue Dec 05, 2006 1:29 am

I wrote:
Vlad wrote:Durian should also begin to accelerate.
This acceleration has begun, and it appears the storm's center will spend less than six hours over land. Higher clouds have cleared away somewhat in recent visibles to reveal that while convection has diminished, the circulation center is still intact and healthy-looking in a circular, unsheared sense.
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#151 Postby Chacor » Tue Dec 05, 2006 4:50 am

4.INTENSITY FORECAST
TS WILL BE GRADED DOWN TO TD WITHIN 24 HOURS.
TS WILL WEAKEN BECAUSE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE NEAR CYCLONE CENTER HAS BECOME WARMER
AND CDO BECAME INDISTINCT.
FI-NUMBER WILL BE 1.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.=

06Z JMA prognostic.

Image
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#152 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Tue Dec 05, 2006 5:01 am

Not looking to good.
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#153 Postby Chacor » Tue Dec 05, 2006 7:55 am

Final advisory from JMA.

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD DOWNGRADED FROM TS 0621 DURIAN (0621)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 051200UTC 08N 104E
MOVE SW 20KT
PRES 1006HPA

Image

You wouldn't really know there was a TC if you looked at that image, would you? Surprised NRL is still carrying it at 35 kt.
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#154 Postby Chacor » Tue Dec 05, 2006 8:58 am

JTWC 15Z maintains it as a 35 kt TS. Not quite sure why... since they themselves gave it T1.5/2.5 at 1130 iirc, and PT unclass due to weakening.

837
TPPN10 PGTW 051206

A. TROPICAL STORM 24W (DURIAN)

B. 05/1130Z

C. 8.4N/2

D. 104.3E/8

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T1.5/2.5/W2.0/24HRS STT: W0.5/06HRS (05/1130Z)

G. IR/EIR LLCC

70/PBO ANMTN. LACK OF CNVCTN YIELDS UNCLAS. SMALL AMOUNT
OF CNVCTN LOCATED 3.1 DEGREES NORTH OF THE LLCC ALSO
YIELDS UNCLAS. PT AGREES. UNREPRESENTATIVE MET GIVES
2.0. DT OF 1.5 BASED ON WEAKENING STT.

DELEO

Calls for a 45-kt TS in the Indian Ocean.
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#155 Postby Chacor » Tue Dec 05, 2006 10:35 am

345
WWPN20 KNES 051519

SATELLITE WEATHER BULLETIN
MTSAT IRNIGHT WEST PACIFIC OCEAN
.
DECEMBER 05 2006 1433Z
.
7.9N 103.9E T1.0/2.0/W3.0/24HRS DURIAN (24W)
.
PAST POSITIONS... 9.8N 106.2E 05/0233Z VIS/IRDAY
10.8N 109.0E 04/1433Z IRNIGHT
.
REMARKS...DURIAN HAS REEMERGED FROM BEING OVER LAND BUT WITH
LITTLE OR NO CONVECTION. SHEARED CENTER POSITION AIDED WITH
1115Z SSMI PASS.
.
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NMI.
.
THIS WILL BE THE LAST BULLETIN UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS. IF
THE STORM IS WEST OF 100E, THE BULLETIN WILL BE FOUND UNDER
WWIO20KWBC.
.
FOR AREAL DISPLAY OF RAINFALL POTENTIAL SEE OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/TROP/TRAP-IMG.HTML
ALL LOWER CASE LETTERS EXCEPT PS/TROP
.
BALDWIN

Everyone except the JTWC seems to accept that Durian isn't much anymore, yet their own fix:

059
TPPN10 PGTW 051507

A. TROPICAL STORM 24W (DURIAN)

B. 05/1430Z

C. 8.4N/2

D. 103.8E/2

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T1.5/2.5/W2.0/24HRS STT: W0.5/06HRS (05/1130Z)

G. IR/EIR LLCC

70/PBO ANMTN.

DELEO
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#156 Postby HurricaneBill » Tue Dec 05, 2006 3:56 pm

Latest tolls:

Philippines
dead: 526
missing: 740

Vietnam
dead: 50
missing: 46
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#157 Postby Cyclenall » Tue Dec 05, 2006 4:26 pm

Last night I literally saw Durian dissipating while moving over land. It was if it just went over some tall mountains. The convection was warming very quickly and the storm just faded to nothing. Strange.
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#158 Postby Coredesat » Tue Dec 05, 2006 7:03 pm

Convection now appears to be making a comeback (albeit it is disorganized), which, if it still has a circulation center, could mean possible regeneration.

Image
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#159 Postby P.K. » Tue Dec 05, 2006 9:31 pm

WARNING AND SUMMARY 060000.
WARNING VALID 070000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.

SUMMARY.
LOW 990 HPA AT 59N 169E WNW 15 KT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 10N 100E WEST 20 KT.
HIGH 1034 HPA AT 45N 133E EAST 20 KT.
HIGH 1034 HPA AT 38N 134E EAST 35 KT.
HIGH 1030 HPA AT 35N 168E EAST 35 KT.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
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#160 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Tue Dec 05, 2006 10:07 pm

So its back? That's just great. :roll:
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