Typhoon 25w (Utor) in WPac

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Typhoon 25w (Utor) in WPac

#1 Postby Typhoon Hunter » Wed Dec 06, 2006 4:48 am

Invest 93W has stuck around for a while now and it looks as if it's starting to take shape. First of all JTWC have upgraded the area to "FAIR." Here's what they have to say:

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.7N 152.6E
HAS BEEN RE-LOCATED NEAR 9.0N 142.3E, APPROXIMATELY 300 NM SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS IMPROVING CONSOLIDATION OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND PROVIDES IMPROVED CONFIDENCE IN THE LOCATION OF THE CENTER. A 060035Z AMSU IMAGE DEPICTS A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD (20-30) DIVERGENCE ALOFT SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIG-NIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.

Various weather models have picked up on this. The latest 00z run from ECMWF has a weak TC hitting the Philippines then intensifying in the South China Sea in about 5 or 6 days time. CMC model is also going along with a hit in the central Philippines. GFS and UKMET are also hinting at something.

As ever I'll be keeping a close eye on this given what's happened in this area over the last three months!
Last edited by Typhoon Hunter on Wed Dec 06, 2006 11:24 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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#2 Postby Chacor » Wed Dec 06, 2006 5:17 am

I was having a look at the cyclone phase diagrams earlier and they don't look encouraging for the Philippines.
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#3 Postby P.K. » Wed Dec 06, 2006 7:48 am

RSMC Tokyo had this as a 1006hPa LPA last night but then dropped it.
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#4 Postby Typhoon Hunter » Wed Dec 06, 2006 11:12 am

JTWC now have a Tropical Cylone Formation Alert out for this now. It's looking pretty menacing on satellite now and is up to Dvorak T2.0 now.

224
TPPN10 PGTW 061506

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE S OF GUAM

B. 06/1430Z

C. 8.9N/7

D. 140.3E/8

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS (06/1430Z)

G. IR/EIR LLCC

70/PBO ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .35 ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS
2.0. DBO DT. PT AND MET AGREE. OFF-HOUR DVORAK.

DELEO

As ever I will be keeping an extremely close eye on this!
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#5 Postby P.K. » Wed Dec 06, 2006 12:01 pm

A different Dvorak estimate, this time a 1.5.

TPPN10 KGWC 061450 COR
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SW OF GUAM
B. 06/1431Z (113)
C. 8.4N/2
D. 139.5E/8
E. SIX/MTSAT
F. T1.5/1.5/INIT OBS -06/1431Z-
G. IR/EIR

70/PBO ANMTN. CONVCTN WRAPS .30 ON LOG10
SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 1.5. PT AGREES.
COR FOR LINE A. COR SENT 06/1500Z.

AODT: N/A

LONG/WEAVER

Also one from the SAB.

06/1433 UTC 8.6N 139.8E T1.0/1.5 93W -- West Pacific Ocean
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#6 Postby P.K. » Wed Dec 06, 2006 4:57 pm

WARNING AND SUMMARY 061800.
WARNING VALID 071800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.

SUMMARY.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 07N 140E WNW SLOWLY.
HIGH 1030 HPA AT 37N 146E EAST 30 KT.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 21N 112E TO 24N 119E 28N 125E 26N 131E.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
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#7 Postby Chacor » Wed Dec 06, 2006 9:17 pm

Tropical Depression 25W has formed.
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#8 Postby Chacor » Wed Dec 06, 2006 9:19 pm

Image

Going for a low hit at about 10N.
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#9 Postby Chacor » Wed Dec 06, 2006 9:20 pm

JMA confirms TD...

WTPQ20 RJTD 070000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 070000UTC 09.1N 136.6E FAIR
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 1006HPA
MXWD 030KT
FORECAST
24HF 080000UTC 09.1N 133.5E 150NM 70%
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT =
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#10 Postby P.K. » Wed Dec 06, 2006 9:38 pm

TS forecast within the next 12 hours.

TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20061207/0000Z
TCAC: TOKYO
TC: TD
NR: 1
PSN: N0905 E13635
MOV: W SLOWLY
C: 1006HPA
MAX WIND: 30KT
FCST PSN +12HR: 07/1200Z N0905 E13510
FCST MAX WIND +12HR: 35KT
FCST PSN +18HR: NIL
FCST MAX WIND +18HR: NIL
FCST PSN +24HR: 08/0000Z N0905 E13330
FCST MAX WIND +24HR: 35KT
NXT MSG: 20061207/0600Z =

----------------------------

Note the "TD will be upgraded to TY" comment is in reference to the Japanese scale, although they usually refer to it as a TS in all the English advisories including this.

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 1 FOR TD LOCATED AT 09.1N 136.6E
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN.
3.MOTION FORECAST
POSITION ACCURACY AT 070000 UTC IS FAIR.
TD WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
TD WILL MOVE WEST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
TD WILL BE GRADED UP TO TY WITHIN 24 HOURS.
TD WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE NEAR CYCLONE CENTER HAS BECOME COLDER AND CYCLONE WILL STAY IN HIGH SST AREA.
FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.=
Last edited by P.K. on Wed Dec 06, 2006 9:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#11 Postby Chacor » Wed Dec 06, 2006 9:40 pm

WTPQ30 RJTD 070000

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 1 FOR TD LOCATED AT 09.1N 136.6E
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN.
3.MOTION FORECAST
POSITION ACCURACY AT 070000 UTC IS FAIR.
TD WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
TD WILL MOVE WEST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
TD WILL BE GRADED UP TO TY WITHIN 24 HOURS.
TD WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE NEAR CYCLONE CENTER HAS BECOME COLDER AND CYCLONE WILL STAY IN HIGH SST AREA.
FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.=
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#12 Postby JonathanBelles » Wed Dec 06, 2006 9:41 pm

another filipeno hit? ouch
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#13 Postby Chacor » Wed Dec 06, 2006 9:57 pm

070300Z POSITION NEAR 8.7N 136.0E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 25W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 95 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
THAT THE SYSTEM HAS CONSOLIDATED QUICKLY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.
A 062053Z WINDSAT MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND BETTER ORGANIZATION OF THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS
REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 061451Z DEC 06 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 061500). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
070000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070900Z, 071500Z, 072100Z
AND 080300Z.//
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#14 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Wed Dec 06, 2006 10:08 pm

Looks like their getting hit harder then Florida 2004.
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#15 Postby JonathanBelles » Wed Dec 06, 2006 10:09 pm

this is what 5 in 4 months
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#16 Postby Chacor » Wed Dec 06, 2006 11:01 pm

WDPN31 PGTW 070300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W WARNING NR 01//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 070000Z DEC TO 100000Z DEC 2006.
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 25W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 95 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE
SYSTEM HAS CONSOLIDATED QUICKLY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. A 062053Z
WINDSAT MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER
THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND BETTER ORGANIZATION OF THE LOW LEVEL CIR-
CULATION CENTER.
B. TD 25W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL (850-700 MB) RIDGE POSITIONED NORTH OF THE
SYSTEM AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THIS
STEERING INFLUENCE THROUGH TAU 36. AS THE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS TO
TYPHOON STRENGTH AFTER TAU 36, IT WILL TRACK UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL (500 MB) SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE 500 MB
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE SYSTEM AND CONTINUE TO
STEER THE SYSTEM WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72. THE LIMITED DYNAMIC AIDS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK SCENARIO.
C. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A DEVELOPING ANTICYCLONE OVER
THE SYSTEM. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS VERY GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW (FURTHER ENHANCED BY STRONG MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES) AND
DEVELOPING EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 12N 160E WILL
ALSO AID IN THE OUTFLOW OF TD 25W. THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT IS FAVOR-
ABLE, THEREFORE TD 25W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A SLIGHTLY GREATER
THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM
WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS IT TRACKS OVER THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINES DUE
TO LAND INTERACTION.
D. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE-
SIZED DEVELOPING SYSTEM.
FORECAST TEAM: BRAVO//
NNNN
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#17 Postby HurricaneBill » Wed Dec 06, 2006 11:10 pm

Oh great, the next name on the list is "Utor". :roll:
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#18 Postby Windspeed » Wed Dec 06, 2006 11:29 pm

I believe this is very bad news...

1) SSTs values are still running between 28 and 29ºC all the way up to the forecasted landfall position around 10-11º N. Heat potential is still high. The 26ºC isotherm is around 80m deep. Plenty of fuel for this storm to strengthen rapidly if atmospheric conditions are condusive, and well...

2) The cyclone is going to move directly south of 700-500mb ridging that is forecast to build westward. An upper high is already expanding over the system with strong 200mb outflow channels. I expect this system to be bumped up for rapid intensification tommorrow because I do not think this system will take long to reach typhoon status.

3) The forecast track takes it through the Leyte Gulf. There are some densly populated regions here including Cebu, Surigao del Norte, Leyte and Bohol -- combined around 6 million people. If the cyclone becomes large, the northern side of the circulation may directly affect regions already hard hit near Mount Mayon. They are still digging out from the major lahars.

What a horrible year for the Philippines...
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#19 Postby HurricaneBill » Thu Dec 07, 2006 12:19 am

Man, this is like 2004. After Typhoon Muifa, TS Merbok, and TD Winnie caused destructive mudslides, along came Super Typhoon Nanmadol.
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#20 Postby Typhoon Hunter » Thu Dec 07, 2006 1:30 am

Too early to really be talking about this I know but what the hell, given the exceptional few months it's been.
I've been looking at the best potential intercept points for this, should it charge through at about 10 or 11N. I've heard Leyte and Samar are pretty remote and hard to get around so Cebu would probably be the best bet. Leyte is quite a "skinny" island so doubt it would take much punch out of any typhoon before it hit Cebu.

JMA update should be coming out soon.
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