T.S. BETA Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[cjrciadt]

[Brent]

"Very close" to hurricane status per the 11pm NHC advisory...

[cycloneye]

"Very close" to hurricane status per the 11pm NHC advisory...

At 5 AM hurricane?

[Brent]

"Very close" to hurricane status per the 11pm NHC advisory...

At 5 AM hurricane?

Might be at 2am at this rate...

[Cookiely]

They are putting all their trust in the models which goes against what the present steering currents would suggest.
000
WTNT41 KNHC 290238
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM BETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI OCT 28 2005

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS BEEN IN DIRECT CONTACT WITH THE
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF COLOMBIA AND HAS BEEN RECEIVING WEATHER
DATA FROM SAN ANDRES AND PROVIDENCIA. DATA FROM THE ISLAND OF
PROVIDENCIA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF BETA IS MOVING OVER OR VERY
CLOSE TO THE ISLAND. THE MINIMUM PRESSURE AT 00Z WAS 995 MB AND
WINDS WERE FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 30 KNOTS. THE WINDS WERE 50 TO 55
KNOTS ONE HOUR EARLIER. A NEW REPORT JUST RECEIVED FROM THE ISLAND
INDICATES THAT THE WINDS ARE NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH. BETA IS
GOING THROUGH ITS USUAL UP AND DOWN CYCLE IN THE CONVECTION AND NOW
IT IS ON THE UPWARD TREND WITH A VENGEANCE. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS
BEEN INCREASED TO 60 KNOTS AND ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT BETA IS
ABOUT TO BECOME A HURRICANE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
BETWEEN NOW AND THE TIME OF LANDFALL OVER NICARAGUA OR EASTERN
HONDURAS. THIS TREND IS IN AGREEMENT WITH SHIPS AND WITH THE GFDL
MODEL WHICH TENACIOUSLY MAKES BETA A 95 TO 100-KT HURRICANE.

BETA APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST ABOUT 4 KNOTS.
IT SEEMS THAT THE LEFT TURN INDICATED BY THE PARADE OF MODELS LED
BY THE GFDL IS BEGINNING. IT WOULD BE FOOLISH NOT TO FOLLOW THESE
ADVANCED MODELS...AND RIGHTFULLY SO...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS
BEEN TURNING BETA WESTWARD. THE CURRENT STEERING PATTERN WOULD
SUGGEST A NORTHWARD TRACK BUT THE CURRENT WEAKNESS IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO IS FORECAST TO BE REPLACED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THIS
NEW PATTERN WILL ULTIMATELY FORCE BETA TO MOVE WESTWARD TOWARD
CENTRAL AMERICA.

REGARDLESS OF THE INTENSITY OF BETA AT LANDFALL...THIS TROPICAL
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BRING TORRENTIAL RAINS TO PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA...PRIMARILY NICARAGUA...CAUSING CONSIDERABLE
DAMAGE...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. PLEASE BE
PREPARED FOR THIS EVENT.

FORECASTER AVILA


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/0300Z 13.6N 81.4W 60 KT
12HR VT 29/1200Z 14.0N 81.8W 65 KT
24HR VT 30/0000Z 14.5N 82.5W 75 KT
36HR VT 30/1200Z 14.5N 83.5W 85 KT
48HR VT 31/0000Z 14.5N 84.5W 30 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 01/0000Z 14.5N 86.5W 25 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 02/0000Z 14.5N 88.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 03/0000Z 15.0N 90.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW


$$

[gatorcane]

They are putting all their trust in the models which goes against what the present steering currents would suggest

[WxGuy1]

cjrciadt:

Your satellite shot shows a rather pronounced trough. I know that the NHC expects ridging to build in behind it but given climatology I'm not convinced this thing is heading inland and dying as some think.

The LBAR and NHCA98E are the only two models suggesting a track north of the Yucatan channel, and both of those are pretty worthless. One is not very good historically, the other isn't even a dynamical model (it's statistical/climatological). If you are pounding on climatology so much, why are you even looking at any models at all? Just say you think it'll take a climatological track towards Florida. You seem to be very bullish in your forecasts, but I caution against such forecasting practices, as it'll (a) scare folks who don't understand much in the way of meteorology, and (b) discredit you over time. The guys (and gals) at NHC aren't foolish -- they know their stuff (much more than any discussions indicate). I'm not saying it's always good to take their forecast as gold, but I don't think it's that realistic to put your faith in a statistical model vs. the expertise of NHC and just about every dynamical models, unless you can support your forecast with concrete data and insight. Models certainly aren't always correct, and sometimes they can be downright awful, but concrete supporting data and analysis would be desired to help us understand why you believe dfiferently.

[Brent]

Beta now a hurricane...

PROVIDENCIA ISLAND HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING WINDS TO
NEAR HURRICANE FORCE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. REPORTS FROM THE
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF COLOMBIA INDICATE EXTENSIVE DAMAGE TO
HOMES HAS OCCURRED ON THE ISLAND... AND ALL COMMUNICATIONS TO
PROVIDENCIA HAVE BEEN LOST.

[fasterdisaster]

time for a mod to lock and and start a:

HURRICANE BETA!!!!!!!!! thread