Tropical Storm Ophelia

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
cjrciadt
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1616
Joined: Mon Aug 22, 2005 1:11 pm
Location: Kissimmee, FL

#101 Postby cjrciadt » Tue Sep 06, 2005 12:24 pm

Image
The UKMET is um.....
0 likes   
Top
LanceW
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 89
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 12:09 pm
Location: Poinciana FL

#102 Postby LanceW » Tue Sep 06, 2005 12:26 pm

re: cjrciadt

The UKMET creates an arrow pointing to where it will hit... :D
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Hurricaneman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7349
Age: 44
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
Location: central florida

#103 Postby Hurricaneman » Tue Sep 06, 2005 12:26 pm

The UKMET path is as good as any with the weak steering currents
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cjrciadt
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1616
Joined: Mon Aug 22, 2005 1:11 pm
Location: Kissimmee, FL

#104 Postby cjrciadt » Tue Sep 06, 2005 12:28 pm

LanceW wrote:re: cjrciadt

The UKMET creates an arrow pointing to where it will hit... :D
You're right I wish all the models could be as simple to read. :roflmao: Oh crap the GFDL just showed up.
Last edited by cjrciadt on Tue Sep 06, 2005 12:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
KatDaddy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2815
Joined: Mon Oct 21, 2002 6:23 pm
Location: League City, Texas

#105 Postby KatDaddy » Tue Sep 06, 2005 12:29 pm

For what its worth from the HPC Disc they also agree on GOM with strong high pressure building over the SE US

SOUTHEAST...
NO MATTER HOW FAR NORTH THIS POTENTIAL TROP CYC GETS...THE
STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE BUILDING OVR THE SOUTHEAST/WRN ATL SHOULD
FORCE IT WWD/WSWWD EVENTUALLY... SIMILAR TO KATRINAS TRACK BUT
FARTHER NORTH. THE ECMWF IS ONE OF THE WORST MODELS IN FCSTG TROP
CYC MOTION... USUALLY SHOWING A WWD BIAS IN THE SUBTROPICS...AND
IT IS THE MOST WWD OF ALL THE GUIDANCE. THE CAN/NAM/UKMET/NCEP
ENSMEAN STILL SHOW/HINT AT FULL RECURVATURE WHICH APPEARS UNLIKELY
GIVEN THE EXPECTED STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE IN THE SOUTHEAST AND THE
LOOK OF THE UPPER PATTERN IN THOSE MDLS. THE COORDINATED POINTS
ARE CLOSEST TO THE 06Z GFS AT THE SFC AND 00Z NOGAPS... WHICH
NORMALLY SHOW GREATER SKILL W/TROP CYCS THAN THE ECMWF.
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
Amanzi
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4883
Age: 47
Joined: Wed Oct 09, 2002 10:12 pm
Location: Epsom,UK

#106 Postby Amanzi » Tue Sep 06, 2005 12:31 pm

sweetpea wrote:
HurricaneGirl wrote:
sponger wrote:Either way, this will be a huge rain even for Florida!
Holy Crap it's coming right for us! :eek:


Sure looks that way-that 8am Sat point is right over my head. Debbie


Debbie, do your self a favor, when the grannies here about this there is going to be a scramble for gas. I think people are going to be spooked because of all the images they have been watching on TV. I will decide tonight if I need a hotel res.. My house is on the barrier island on the A1A, so I get evacs first. I dont think this storm will be too scary for us (hey thats just my opinion!) Besides I still have a very very unsound roof from last year, so I take no chances with my kids and all the massive oak trees here. I learnt from last year, try be one step ahead of the crowd.
0 likes   
Top
nequad
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 303
Joined: Tue Aug 16, 2005 3:36 pm

#107 Postby nequad » Tue Sep 06, 2005 12:32 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN ANALYSED POSITION : 26.4N 78.1W



ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL162005



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 06.09.2005 26.4N 78.1W WEAK

00UTC 07.09.2005 27.1N 78.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 07.09.2005 28.0N 79.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 08.09.2005 28.1N 80.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 08.09.2005 29.0N 80.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 09.09.2005 28.1N 80.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 09.09.2005 28.8N 79.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 10.09.2005 30.2N 79.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 10.09.2005 30.6N 77.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 11.09.2005 31.6N 76.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

12UTC 11.09.2005 31.5N 75.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 12.09.2005 30.7N 75.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 12.09.2005 31.4N 75.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
KatDaddy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2815
Joined: Mon Oct 21, 2002 6:23 pm
Location: League City, Texas

#108 Postby KatDaddy » Tue Sep 06, 2005 12:32 pm

Oh yeah........and what does Joe B really say once it gets to the GOM.
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
nequad
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 303
Joined: Tue Aug 16, 2005 3:36 pm

#109 Postby nequad » Tue Sep 06, 2005 12:34 pm

WHXX04 KWBC 061727
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN 16L

INITIAL TIME 12Z SEP 6

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 26.6 78.3 360./ .0
6 26.3 78.5 212./ 4.2
12 26.3 78.8 276./ 2.7
18 26.4 78.9 340./ 1.2
24 26.7 79.1 327./ 3.6
30 26.9 79.4 298./ 3.9
36 26.7 79.6 216./ 2.3
42 26.9 79.6 8./ 1.5
48 27.2 79.6 354./ 3.0
54 27.3 80.1 282./ 4.3
60 27.1 80.5 242./ 4.3
66 27.2 80.8 297./ 3.2
72 27.5 81.3 295./ 5.0
78 27.5 82.0 276./ 6.4
84 27.6 83.1 275./ 9.9
90 27.6 84.4 269./11.2
96 27.7 85.5 273./10.1
102 27.7 86.6 274./ 9.1
108 27.8 87.7 272./10.1
114 28.2 88.9 291./11.8
120 28.7 90.0 295./10.4
126 29.5 90.9 308./11.0
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
hicksta
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1108
Age: 35
Joined: Thu Jul 14, 2005 12:16 am
Location: Kemah Texas/ Baton Rogue LA

#110 Postby hicksta » Tue Sep 06, 2005 12:34 pm

The GFDL has had a very good grip on many storms. I am truly worried it might have a grip on this one two.
0 likes   
Top
tracyswfla
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 792
Joined: Tue May 18, 2004 1:19 pm
Location: Rochester, NY

#111 Postby tracyswfla » Tue Sep 06, 2005 12:36 pm

Where is the GFDL grafic?
0 likes   
Top
Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 37988
Age: 36
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:
Contact Brent

#112 Postby Brent » Tue Sep 06, 2005 12:36 pm

nequad wrote:WHXX04 KWBC 061727
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN 16L

INITIAL TIME 12Z SEP 6

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 26.6 78.3 360./ .0
6 26.3 78.5 212./ 4.2
12 26.3 78.8 276./ 2.7
18 26.4 78.9 340./ 1.2
24 26.7 79.1 327./ 3.6
30 26.9 79.4 298./ 3.9
36 26.7 79.6 216./ 2.3
42 26.9 79.6 8./ 1.5
48 27.2 79.6 354./ 3.0
54 27.3 80.1 282./ 4.3
60 27.1 80.5 242./ 4.3
66 27.2 80.8 297./ 3.2
72 27.5 81.3 295./ 5.0
78 27.5 82.0 276./ 6.4
84 27.6 83.1 275./ 9.9
90 27.6 84.4 269./11.2
96 27.7 85.5 273./10.1
102 27.7 86.6 274./ 9.1
108 27.8 87.7 272./10.1
114 28.2 88.9 291./11.8
120 28.7 90.0 295./10.4
126 29.5 90.9 308./11.0


BAD GFDL!!! BAD!!! :grr: :grr: :grr: :grr: :grr: :eek: :eek:
0 likes   
#neversummer
Top
User avatar
BreinLa
ChatStaff
ChatStaff
Posts: 1967
Joined: Wed Oct 09, 2002 12:18 pm
Location: Lafayette, La.
Contact:
Contact BreinLa

#113 Postby BreinLa » Tue Sep 06, 2005 12:36 pm

Please Please stay out of the gulf. And yes I am -removed- but after last week, I am entitled
0 likes   
Top
tracyswfla
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 792
Joined: Tue May 18, 2004 1:19 pm
Location: Rochester, NY

#114 Postby tracyswfla » Tue Sep 06, 2005 12:37 pm

BreinLa wrote:Please Please stay out of the gulf. And yes I am -removed- but after last week, I am entitled


More than entitled to wishcast!
0 likes   
Top
Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 37988
Age: 36
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:
Contact Brent

#115 Postby Brent » Tue Sep 06, 2005 12:37 pm

GFDL takes it inland just west of Grand Isle, LA. Let that be wrong... please.
0 likes   
#neversummer
Top
Dmetal81
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 221
Joined: Fri Sep 12, 2003 9:22 am
Location: Westminster, SC

#116 Postby Dmetal81 » Tue Sep 06, 2005 12:39 pm

BreinLa wrote:Please Please stay out of the gulf. And yes I am -removed- but after last week, I am entitled


Yes you are.... and even though my Family lives in Daytona, Ill still wish it into Florida before LA, they need a break for a bit!
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Amanzi
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4883
Age: 47
Joined: Wed Oct 09, 2002 10:12 pm
Location: Epsom,UK

#117 Postby Amanzi » Tue Sep 06, 2005 12:40 pm

Bre... Im -removed- this one away for you as well!!

As usual at this time of year, I normally get a ts watch or warning for my birthday present, its on friday.. please dont mess up my birthday TD 16, go play with Maria and Nate!!!!! :roll:

Correct me if im wrong, but was not ophelia a name from a Shakespear play... Midsummer nights dream or the Merchant of venice???
0 likes   
Top
tracyswfla
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 792
Joined: Tue May 18, 2004 1:19 pm
Location: Rochester, NY

#118 Postby tracyswfla » Tue Sep 06, 2005 12:43 pm

Amanzi wrote:Bre... Im -removed- this one away for you as well!!

As usual at this time of year, I normally get a ts watch or warning for my birthday present, its on friday.. please dont mess up my birthday TD 16, go play with Maria and Nate!!!!! :roll:

Correct me if im wrong, but was not ophelia a name from a Shakespear play... Midsummer nights dream or the Merchant of venice???


Hamlet? I am googling....
0 likes   
Top
Dmetal81
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 221
Joined: Fri Sep 12, 2003 9:22 am
Location: Westminster, SC

#119 Postby Dmetal81 » Tue Sep 06, 2005 12:45 pm

Amanzi wrote:Bre... Im -removed- this one away for you as well!!

As usual at this time of year, I normally get a ts watch or warning for my birthday present, its on friday.. please dont mess up my birthday TD 16, go play with Maria and Nate!!!!! :roll:

Correct me if im wrong, but was not ophelia a name from a Shakespear play... Midsummer nights dream or the Merchant of venice???


I feel your pain! My poor sister's birthday is on the 15th of Sept. I think Daytona has been under some kind of tropical advisory/warning/evac almost every year for the past 6 or so. She NEVER gets a party the poor girl.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Canelaw99
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2127
Age: 48
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 8:27 am
Location: Homestead, FL

#120 Postby Canelaw99 » Tue Sep 06, 2005 12:45 pm

Yes - Ophelia was Hamlet's true love in "Hamlet"
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “2005”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 12 guests