TROPICAL STORM WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT MON OCT 17 2005
THE LAST RECON FIX AT 2130Z MEASURED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 989 MB...
AND THE ONBOARD RADAR REVEALED A DEVELOPING SMALL RAGGED EYE
FEATURE. A SERIES OF PASSIVE MICROWAVE OVERPASSES BY SSMI AND SSMIS
DURING THE PAST THREE HOURS ALSO INDICATES AT LEAST A MID-LEVEL
EYE-LIKE FEATURE. DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN PULSATING THIS EVENING
OVER THE ESTIMATED CENTER LOCATION... BUT WITHOUT ENOUGH
CONSISTENCY TO SUGGEST THAT THE STORM IS INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY. A
DISJOINTED AND BROAD BAND OF COLD CLOUD TOPS REMAINS WELL REMOVED
FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE... BUT THERE IS NO DATA
TO INDICATE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING THAT FAR FROM
THE CENTER. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 00Z HAVE COME UP A BIT
TO 65 KT FROM TAFB AND 55 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA. GIVEN THESE
ESTIMATES AND THE STRUCTURE DEPICTED IN THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY...
THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 55 KT. THIS REMAINS AT THE
LOWER END OF THE RANGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES DUE TO THE PREVIOUSLY
DISCUSSED LAG BETWEEN THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE AND SURFACE WINDS
INDICATED BY THE EARLIER AIRCRAFT DATA. ANOTHER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO FLY INTO WILMA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO HELP GET A
BETTER HANDLE ON THE INTENSITY.
WILMA STOPPED LOSING LATITUDE EARLIER THIS EVENING WHEN IT PULLED UP
NEARLY STATIONARY... BUT THE RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTS IT
HAS BEGUN A WESTWARD DRIFT... AND THE ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION
IS 270/2. OVERALL THE MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED A BIT TO
THE RIGHT OR EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... AND THE NEW OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS ADJUSTED IN THAT SAME DIRECTION THROUGHOUT THE FIVE DAY
PERIOD. THE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT WILMA WILL RECURVE AFTER
ABOUT 72 HOURS THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH PROGRESSING ACROSS THE
CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES. AS IS OFTEN THE CASE... HOWEVER... THE
MODELS GREATLY DISAGREE ON HOW SHARPLY WILMA WILL TURN AND HOW FAST
IT WILL MOVE AFTER RECURVATURE. MOST OF THE MODELS ARE NOW MUCH
FASTER AFTER RECURVATURE... BUT THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL ONLY
BE ADJUSTED PART OF THE WAY BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE
LATEST DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
STEADY STRENGTHENING WHILE WILMA REMAINS IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA... AND IT STILL APPEARS PROBABLE THAT WILMA WILL
BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE. THEREAFTER... INCREASING SHEAR SHOULD
HALT INTENSIFICATION AND BEGIN TO INDUCE GRADUAL WEAKENING... BUT
NOT ENOUGH TO WEAKEN WILMA BENEATH HURRICANE INTENSITY WITHIN THE
FIVE-DAY TIME FRAME.
FORECASTER KNABB
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 18/0300Z 15.8N 80.2W 55 KT
12HR VT 18/1200Z 15.8N 80.7W 65 KT
24HR VT 19/0000Z 16.6N 81.7W 75 KT
36HR VT 19/1200Z 17.3N 82.8W 85 KT
48HR VT 20/0000Z 18.2N 83.7W 95 KT
72HR VT 21/0000Z 20.5N 85.0W 100 KT
96HR VT 22/0000Z 22.5N 85.0W 95 KT
120HR VT 23/0000Z 25.0N 82.5W 85 KT
Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5
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Brent
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TROPICAL STORM WILMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM EDT TUE OCT 18 2005
...WILMA BARELY MOVING...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM WILMA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.0 WEST OR ABOUT
260 MILES... 420 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT
215 MILES... 345 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER.
WILMA HAS BARELY MOVED FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS BUT A GENERAL
MOTION TO THE WEST IS EXPECTED TODAY FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK
AND ERRATIC MOTION IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR... WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND WILMA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES... 110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES.
WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES
OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...JAMAICA...HAITI...AND SOUTHEASTERN
CUBA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10
INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER HONDURAS.
REPEATING THE 2 AM EDT POSITION...15.7 N... 80.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 65 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 984 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 AM EDT.
FORECASTER AVILA
TROPICAL STORM WILMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM EDT TUE OCT 18 2005
...WILMA BARELY MOVING...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM WILMA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.0 WEST OR ABOUT
260 MILES... 420 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT
215 MILES... 345 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER.
WILMA HAS BARELY MOVED FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS BUT A GENERAL
MOTION TO THE WEST IS EXPECTED TODAY FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK
AND ERRATIC MOTION IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR... WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND WILMA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES... 110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES.
WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES
OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...JAMAICA...HAITI...AND SOUTHEASTERN
CUBA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10
INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER HONDURAS.
REPEATING THE 2 AM EDT POSITION...15.7 N... 80.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 65 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 984 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 AM EDT.
FORECASTER AVILA
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#neversummer
Tropical Storm Wilma Advisory Number 11
Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on October 18, 2005
...Wilma almost a hurricane...expected to be one soon...
a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Honduras from the
Honduras/Nicaragua border westward to Cabo camaron.
A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch remain in effect for
the Cayman Islands.
Wilma is expected to become an intense hurricane in the northwestern
Caribbean Sea. Therefore...all interests in western Cuba...the
Yucatan Peninsula...South Florida and the Florida Keys should
monitor the progress of this potentially dangerous hurricane during
the next several days.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
At 5 am EDT...0900z...the center of Tropical Storm Wilma was located
near latitude 15.7 north...longitude 80.0 west or about 260 miles
...420 km...south-southeast of Grand Cayman and about 220 miles...
350 km...east-northeast of Cabo Gracias a Dios on the Nicaragua
/Honduras border.
Wilma has been nearly stationary and little motion is expected
during the next several hours. Thereafter...a general motion to the
west is expected followed by a gradual turn toward the
west-northwest. Steering currents remain weak and erratic motion is
possible.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph...110
km/hr...with higher gusts. Wilma is expected to become a hurricane
today.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles ...110 km
from the center.
Latest minimum central pressure measured by an Air Force
reconnaissance plane a couple of hours ago was 982 mb...29.00
inches.
Wilma is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 4 to 6 inches
over the Cayman Islands...Jamaica...Haiti...and southeastern
Cuba...with isolated amounts of 8 to 12 inches possible. Rainfall
accumulations of 2 to 3 inches...with isolated amounts of 6 to 10
inches...are possible over Honduras.
Repeating the 5 am EDT position...15.7 N... 80.0 W. Movement
...Stationary. Maximum sustained winds... 70 mph. Minimum central
pressure...982 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 8 am EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 11 am
EDT.
Forecaster Avila
$$
Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on October 18, 2005
...Wilma almost a hurricane...expected to be one soon...
a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Honduras from the
Honduras/Nicaragua border westward to Cabo camaron.
A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch remain in effect for
the Cayman Islands.
Wilma is expected to become an intense hurricane in the northwestern
Caribbean Sea. Therefore...all interests in western Cuba...the
Yucatan Peninsula...South Florida and the Florida Keys should
monitor the progress of this potentially dangerous hurricane during
the next several days.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
At 5 am EDT...0900z...the center of Tropical Storm Wilma was located
near latitude 15.7 north...longitude 80.0 west or about 260 miles
...420 km...south-southeast of Grand Cayman and about 220 miles...
350 km...east-northeast of Cabo Gracias a Dios on the Nicaragua
/Honduras border.
Wilma has been nearly stationary and little motion is expected
during the next several hours. Thereafter...a general motion to the
west is expected followed by a gradual turn toward the
west-northwest. Steering currents remain weak and erratic motion is
possible.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph...110
km/hr...with higher gusts. Wilma is expected to become a hurricane
today.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles ...110 km
from the center.
Latest minimum central pressure measured by an Air Force
reconnaissance plane a couple of hours ago was 982 mb...29.00
inches.
Wilma is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 4 to 6 inches
over the Cayman Islands...Jamaica...Haiti...and southeastern
Cuba...with isolated amounts of 8 to 12 inches possible. Rainfall
accumulations of 2 to 3 inches...with isolated amounts of 6 to 10
inches...are possible over Honduras.
Repeating the 5 am EDT position...15.7 N... 80.0 W. Movement
...Stationary. Maximum sustained winds... 70 mph. Minimum central
pressure...982 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 8 am EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 11 am
EDT.
Forecaster Avila
$$
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Tropical Storm Wilma Forecast/Advisory Number 11
Statement as of 09:00Z on October 18, 2005
a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Honduras from the
Honduras/Nicaragua border westward to Cabo camaron.
A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch remain in effect for
the Cayman Islands.
Tropical storm center located near 15.7n 80.0w at 18/0900z
position accurate within 20 nm
present movement is stationary
estimated minimum central pressure 982 mb
Max sustained winds 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt.
50 kt....... 20ne 20se 0sw 20nw.
34 kt....... 60ne 60se 30sw 60nw.
12 ft seas.. 60ne 60se 60sw 60nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.
Repeat...center located near 15.7n 80.0w at 18/0900z
at 18/0600z center was located near 15.7n 80.0w
forecast valid 18/1800z 15.8n 80.4w
Max wind 70 kt...gusts 85 kt.
64 kt... 20ne 20se 20sw 20nw.
50 kt... 40ne 40se 40sw 40nw.
34 kt... 90ne 90se 90sw 60nw.
Forecast valid 19/0600z 16.6n 81.4w
Max wind 80 kt...gusts 100 kt.
64 kt... 25ne 25se 25sw 25nw.
50 kt... 50ne 50se 50sw 50nw.
34 kt...105ne 105se 105sw 105nw.
Forecast valid 19/1800z 17.3n 82.4w
Max wind 90 kt...gusts 110 kt.
64 kt... 25ne 25se 25sw 25nw.
50 kt... 50ne 50se 50sw 50nw.
34 kt...105ne 105se 105sw 105nw.
Forecast valid 20/0600z 18.6n 84.0w
Max wind 100 kt...gusts 120 kt.
50 kt... 60ne 60se 60sw 60nw.
34 kt...120ne 120se 120sw 120nw.
Forecast valid 21/0600z 21.1n 85.0w
Max wind 100 kt...gusts 120 kt.
50 kt... 60ne 60se 60sw 60nw.
34 kt...120ne 120se 120sw 120nw.
Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 250 nm
on day 4 and 325 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day
outlook valid 22/0600z 23.0n 84.5w
Max wind 100 kt...gusts 120 kt.
Outlook valid 23/0600z 26.5n 80.0w...inland
Max wind 80 kt...gusts 100 kt.
Request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 15.7n 80.0w
next advisory at 18/1500z
forecaster Avila
$$
Statement as of 09:00Z on October 18, 2005
a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Honduras from the
Honduras/Nicaragua border westward to Cabo camaron.
A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch remain in effect for
the Cayman Islands.
Tropical storm center located near 15.7n 80.0w at 18/0900z
position accurate within 20 nm
present movement is stationary
estimated minimum central pressure 982 mb
Max sustained winds 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt.
50 kt....... 20ne 20se 0sw 20nw.
34 kt....... 60ne 60se 30sw 60nw.
12 ft seas.. 60ne 60se 60sw 60nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.
Repeat...center located near 15.7n 80.0w at 18/0900z
at 18/0600z center was located near 15.7n 80.0w
forecast valid 18/1800z 15.8n 80.4w
Max wind 70 kt...gusts 85 kt.
64 kt... 20ne 20se 20sw 20nw.
50 kt... 40ne 40se 40sw 40nw.
34 kt... 90ne 90se 90sw 60nw.
Forecast valid 19/0600z 16.6n 81.4w
Max wind 80 kt...gusts 100 kt.
64 kt... 25ne 25se 25sw 25nw.
50 kt... 50ne 50se 50sw 50nw.
34 kt...105ne 105se 105sw 105nw.
Forecast valid 19/1800z 17.3n 82.4w
Max wind 90 kt...gusts 110 kt.
64 kt... 25ne 25se 25sw 25nw.
50 kt... 50ne 50se 50sw 50nw.
34 kt...105ne 105se 105sw 105nw.
Forecast valid 20/0600z 18.6n 84.0w
Max wind 100 kt...gusts 120 kt.
50 kt... 60ne 60se 60sw 60nw.
34 kt...120ne 120se 120sw 120nw.
Forecast valid 21/0600z 21.1n 85.0w
Max wind 100 kt...gusts 120 kt.
50 kt... 60ne 60se 60sw 60nw.
34 kt...120ne 120se 120sw 120nw.
Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 250 nm
on day 4 and 325 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day
outlook valid 22/0600z 23.0n 84.5w
Max wind 100 kt...gusts 120 kt.
Outlook valid 23/0600z 26.5n 80.0w...inland
Max wind 80 kt...gusts 100 kt.
Request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 15.7n 80.0w
next advisory at 18/1500z
forecaster Avila
$$
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Tropical Storm Wilma Discussion Number 11
Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on October 18, 2005
there are several indicators suggesting that Wilma is strengthening.
The pressure has fallen to 982 mb. The cloud pattern consists of
very deep convection near the center with banding features...and
the outflow has continued to become more symmetrical. T-numbers
from TAFB and SAB are 4.0 on the Dvorak scale...suggesting that
Wilma is a hurricane. In addition...two microwave passages from
different satellites show an eye feature. However...wind
observations from the Air Force plane do not support winds higher
than 60 knots at this time. Given the conditions of light shear and
very warm ocean...strenghtening is indicated. The official
intensity forecast is between the GFDL and the SHIPS models. Wilma
is expected to become an intense hurricane in the northwestern
caribean sea...typical of those hurricanes which commonly occurred
in October during the 30's 40's and 50's. This is nothing new.
Wilma has barely moved for the past several hours. Despite models
showing a weakening of the anticylone over the Gulf of Mexico...
this feature is still there and strong...blocking the motion of
Wilma. It is still fresh in my memory that...in 1998 with a similar
steering pattern...all models moved hurricane Mitch northward and
the hurricane indeed moved southward. However...dynamical models
have improved a lot since then and the confidence is higher. The
anticyclone in the Gulf is forecast to weaken as a large trough
sweeps eastward across the United States...and the Atlantic
subtropical ridge is also forecast to build. This should result in
a slow west to northwest motion of Wilma during the next 2 to 3
days...toward the extreme northwestern Caribbean Sea. Thereafter...
Wilma will be approaching the westerlies and recurvature with an
increase in forward speed is forecast. This is consistent with the
guidance envelope which shows a hurricane moving either over the
Yucatan Channel or western Cuba and then over the southern half of
the Florida penisula between days 4 and 5. Remember...there is a
large variability and large errors associated with the 4 and 5 day
forecasts. So at this time stay tune and monitor closely the
progress of this hurricane.
Forecaster Avila
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 18/0900z 15.7n 80.0w 60 kt
12hr VT 18/1800z 15.8n 80.4w 70 kt
24hr VT 19/0600z 16.6n 81.4w 80 kt
36hr VT 19/1800z 17.3n 82.4w 90 kt
48hr VT 20/0600z 18.6n 84.0w 100 kt
72hr VT 21/0600z 21.1n 85.0w 100 kt
96hr VT 22/0600z 23.0n 84.5w 100 kt
120hr VT 23/0600z 26.5n 80.0w 80 kt...inland
$$
Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on October 18, 2005
there are several indicators suggesting that Wilma is strengthening.
The pressure has fallen to 982 mb. The cloud pattern consists of
very deep convection near the center with banding features...and
the outflow has continued to become more symmetrical. T-numbers
from TAFB and SAB are 4.0 on the Dvorak scale...suggesting that
Wilma is a hurricane. In addition...two microwave passages from
different satellites show an eye feature. However...wind
observations from the Air Force plane do not support winds higher
than 60 knots at this time. Given the conditions of light shear and
very warm ocean...strenghtening is indicated. The official
intensity forecast is between the GFDL and the SHIPS models. Wilma
is expected to become an intense hurricane in the northwestern
caribean sea...typical of those hurricanes which commonly occurred
in October during the 30's 40's and 50's. This is nothing new.
Wilma has barely moved for the past several hours. Despite models
showing a weakening of the anticylone over the Gulf of Mexico...
this feature is still there and strong...blocking the motion of
Wilma. It is still fresh in my memory that...in 1998 with a similar
steering pattern...all models moved hurricane Mitch northward and
the hurricane indeed moved southward. However...dynamical models
have improved a lot since then and the confidence is higher. The
anticyclone in the Gulf is forecast to weaken as a large trough
sweeps eastward across the United States...and the Atlantic
subtropical ridge is also forecast to build. This should result in
a slow west to northwest motion of Wilma during the next 2 to 3
days...toward the extreme northwestern Caribbean Sea. Thereafter...
Wilma will be approaching the westerlies and recurvature with an
increase in forward speed is forecast. This is consistent with the
guidance envelope which shows a hurricane moving either over the
Yucatan Channel or western Cuba and then over the southern half of
the Florida penisula between days 4 and 5. Remember...there is a
large variability and large errors associated with the 4 and 5 day
forecasts. So at this time stay tune and monitor closely the
progress of this hurricane.
Forecaster Avila
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 18/0900z 15.7n 80.0w 60 kt
12hr VT 18/1800z 15.8n 80.4w 70 kt
24hr VT 19/0600z 16.6n 81.4w 80 kt
36hr VT 19/1800z 17.3n 82.4w 90 kt
48hr VT 20/0600z 18.6n 84.0w 100 kt
72hr VT 21/0600z 21.1n 85.0w 100 kt
96hr VT 22/0600z 23.0n 84.5w 100 kt
120hr VT 23/0600z 26.5n 80.0w 80 kt...inland
$$
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Dave C
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opps
Notice at the end of the discussion he said "we need to watch the progress of this hurricane". I think he meant "we need to watch the progress of this soon to be hurricane" It's 70mph at this advisory. 
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cycloneye
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393
WTNT34 KNHC 181151
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM WILMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM EDT TUE OCT 18 2005
...WILMA BEGINS TO DRIFT NORTHWESTWARD...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
WILMA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME AN INTENSE HURRICANE IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. ALL INTERESTS IN WESTERN CUBA...THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WILMA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM WILMA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.2 WEST OR ABOUT 245 MILES
...400 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 210 MILES...
335 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE NICARAGUA
/HONDURAS BORDER.
WILMA HAS BEEN DRIFTING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...AND A SLOW MOTION TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN
WEAK AND ERRATIC MOTION IS POSSIBLE.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WILMA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TODAY.
REPORTS FROM NOAA BUOY 42057 INDICATE THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH WILMA ARE EXPANDING...AND NOW EXTEND OUTWARD
UP TO 125 MILES ...200 KM FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.
WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES
OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...JAMAICA...HAITI...AND SOUTHEASTERN
CUBA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10
INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER HONDURAS.
REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...15.9 N... 80.2 W. MOVEMENT
...DRIFTING NORTHWEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM EDT.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
WTNT34 KNHC 181151
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM WILMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM EDT TUE OCT 18 2005
...WILMA BEGINS TO DRIFT NORTHWESTWARD...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
WILMA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME AN INTENSE HURRICANE IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. ALL INTERESTS IN WESTERN CUBA...THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WILMA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM WILMA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.2 WEST OR ABOUT 245 MILES
...400 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 210 MILES...
335 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE NICARAGUA
/HONDURAS BORDER.
WILMA HAS BEEN DRIFTING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...AND A SLOW MOTION TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN
WEAK AND ERRATIC MOTION IS POSSIBLE.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WILMA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TODAY.
REPORTS FROM NOAA BUOY 42057 INDICATE THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH WILMA ARE EXPANDING...AND NOW EXTEND OUTWARD
UP TO 125 MILES ...200 KM FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.
WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES
OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...JAMAICA...HAITI...AND SOUTHEASTERN
CUBA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10
INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER HONDURAS.
REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...15.9 N... 80.2 W. MOVEMENT
...DRIFTING NORTHWEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM EDT.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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dougjp
- Tropical Depression
- Posts: 94
- Joined: Wed Aug 11, 2004 6:46 am
- Location: Ontario, Canada, eh? Hazel survivor :)
I noticed Avila in the 5 AM said "It is fresh in my memory that... in 1998 with a similar steering pattern...all models moved hurricane Mitch northward and the hurricane indeed moved southward. However...dynamic models have improved a lot since...."
If anyone wants to go back in time and 'experience' the events surrounding that storm, pick up the book " The Ship and the Storm: Hurricane Mitch and the Loss of the Fantome" by Jim Carrier. Its made to order for Storm2k'ers. The author had unprecedented access to the NHC and the book is exceptionally well written.
If anyone wants to go back in time and 'experience' the events surrounding that storm, pick up the book " The Ship and the Storm: Hurricane Mitch and the Loss of the Fantome" by Jim Carrier. Its made to order for Storm2k'ers. The author had unprecedented access to the NHC and the book is exceptionally well written.
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cycloneye
- Admin
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- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Hurricane Wilma Comments,Sat Pics Thread
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
HURRICANE WILMA (AL242005) ON 20051018 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051018 1200 051019 0000 051019 1200 051020 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 16.2N 80.3W 17.1N 81.9W 18.1N 83.6W 18.9N 85.1W
BAMM 16.2N 80.3W 17.4N 81.9W 18.6N 83.4W 19.6N 84.9W
A98E 16.2N 80.3W 17.0N 81.0W 18.0N 82.2W 19.5N 83.1W
LBAR 16.2N 80.3W 17.4N 81.4W 18.9N 82.8W 20.5N 83.7W
SHIP 65KTS 75KTS 85KTS 92KTS
DSHP 65KTS 75KTS 85KTS 92KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051020 1200 051021 1200 051022 1200 051023 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 19.7N 86.3W 21.2N 87.3W 22.2N 85.4W 27.5N 77.5W
BAMM 20.4N 86.1W 21.9N 87.2W 22.9N 85.3W 27.8N 77.7W
A98E 20.6N 84.0W 21.8N 84.8W 23.3N 84.5W 28.3N 78.2W
LBAR 22.3N 84.0W 27.1N 81.4W 32.1N 71.7W 31.9N 56.0W
SHIP 99KTS 105KTS 101KTS 85KTS
DSHP 99KTS 105KTS 101KTS 69KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.2N LONCUR = 80.3W DIRCUR = 320DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 15.7N LONM12 = 79.9W DIRM12 = 194DEG SPDM12 = 2KT
LATM24 = 16.4N LONM24 = 79.8W
WNDCUR = 65KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 55KT
CENPRS = 979MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 300NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 105NM RD34SE = 75NM RD34SW = 50NM RD34NW = 105NM
Last edited by cycloneye on Mon Oct 24, 2005 10:41 am, edited 52 times in total.
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 143863
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
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Graphic of the 12:00z Models for now Hurricane Wilma
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 143863
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Ok folks post away all your comments,if you have sat pics of Wilma and the model runs.I suspect that this thread will break the record of 110 pages of Katrina.
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JamesFromMaine2
- Category 4
- Posts: 989
- Joined: Tue Jul 19, 2005 1:38 am
- Location: Portland Maine USA
- Contact:
Does anyone see one a second outflow channel might develop? Right now there seems just to be that one very pronounced poleward one that runs from Wilma through the Bahamas.
Outflow is still constricted to the northwest, once that area fills in, we could be in for a very powerful storm indeed.
Outflow is still constricted to the northwest, once that area fills in, we could be in for a very powerful storm indeed.
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inotherwords
- Category 2
- Posts: 773
- Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 9:04 pm
- Location: Nokomis, FL
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Chigger_Lopez
- Tropical Depression
- Posts: 72
- Joined: Thu Sep 11, 2003 10:11 pm
- Location: Jupiter, FL
I think everyone should relax on this now. I just explained to my son everything I know about Wilma including the models and how everything is setting up. I am a bit concerned being in PB County that we could easily get Cat 1 winds if it tracks this way. Well my 2 year old just eased my tension when he told me to not be scared b/c Wilma is a nice girl! Thank God.
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jlauderdal
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 7177
- Joined: Wed May 19, 2004 5:46 am
- Location: NE Fort Lauderdale
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