Tropical Storm Ophelia

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT SEP 10 2005

...LARGE OPHELIA BARELY MOVING...

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD
TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. THE HURRICANE WATCH MAY HAVE TO BE
SHIFTED NORTHWARD LATER TODAY. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 31.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.2 WEST OR ABOUT 230 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 240 MILES
SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

OPHELIA HAS BEEN MEANDERING MAINLY TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 2 MPH.
LITTLE MOTION IS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT OR SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES... 45 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES...220 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 977 MB...28.85 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...31.8 N... 76.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 80 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 977 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM
EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

TCMAT1
HURRICANE OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162005
2100Z SAT SEP 10 2005

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD
TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. THE HURRICANE WATCH MAY HAVE TO BE
SHIFTED NORTHWARD LATER TODAY. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 76.2W AT 10/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 977 MB
EYE DIAMETER 30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 35SW 50NW.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 75SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..175NE 175SE 160SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 76.2W AT 10/2100Z
AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 76.2W

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 32.0N 76.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 75SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 32.0N 76.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 75SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 32.2N 76.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 75SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 32.5N 77.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 75SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 34.0N 78.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 75SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 35.5N 78.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 37.5N 73.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.8N 76.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z

FORECASTER AVILA


Lixon Avila has made 2 advisories today.

[HURAKAN]

Ophelia may not dissiapte after landfall as it was expected, this could be another Gaston situation.

[cycloneye]

TCDAT1
HURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT SEP 10 2005

LATEST RECON DATA SHOW THAT OPHELIA IS A 70-KNOT HURRICANE WITH A
CLOSED EYEWALL OF ABOUT 30 N MI IN DIAMETER AND A 977 MB MINIMUM
PRESSURE. CONVECTION IS NOT VERY DEEP AND THE OUTFLOW IS RESTRICTED
A LITTLE BIT. HOWEVER...OPHELIA IS A LARGE CYCLONE WITH TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTENDING UP TO 130 N MI FROM THE CENTER. THE
UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO BE ONLY MARGINAL FOR
STRENGTHENING...AND THE OCEAN IS A LITTLE BIT COOLER DUE TO THE
UPWELLING. THEREFORE...ONLY A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED. IN
FACT...NEITHER SHIPS NOR THE GFDL MODELS BRING THE HURRICANE ABOVE
80 KNOTS.

OPHELIA HAS BEEN MOVING VERY LITTLE...JUST A LITTLE NORTHEAST OR
NORTHWARD DRIFT DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. NO SIGNIFICANT MOTION IS
ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNTIL THE HIGH TO THE NORTH OF
THE CYCLONE BECOMES ESTABLISHED. THEREAFTER...I MUST EMPHASIZE THAT
THE TRACK FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SINCE THE SPREAD IN THE
MODELS HAVE INCREASED A LOT SINCE THE LAST RUN. BUT IN GENERAL...
LATEST MODELS HAVE SHOWN A GRADUAL SHIFT TO RIGHT WITH MOST OF THE
TRACKS NOW OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THE EXCEPTION IS THE GFDL
WHICH IS BRINGING THE HURRICANE NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA/SOUTH
CAROLINA BORDER. THIS IS A SMALL SHIFT TO THE RIGHT FROM ITS
PREVIOUS RUN. DUE TO THE CHANGE IN THE GUIDANCE...THE AREA OF
HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED TO BE SHIFTED NORTHWARD LATER
TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME...I WOULD RATHER WAIT FOR TONIGHT'S MODEL RUN
WHICH WILL INCLUDE THE DATA FROM THE NOAA JET. I WANT TO MAKE SURE
THAT THEY DO NOT SHIFT BACK TO THE LEFT LIKE THEY DID LAST NIGHT.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/2100Z 31.8N 76.2W 70 KT
12HR VT 11/0600Z 32.0N 76.0W 75 KT
24HR VT 11/1800Z 32.0N 76.0W 75 KT
36HR VT 12/0600Z 32.2N 76.6W 75 KT
48HR VT 12/1800Z 32.5N 77.5W 75 KT
72HR VT 13/1800Z 34.0N 78.2W 75 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 14/1800Z 35.5N 78.0W 40 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 15/1800Z 37.5N 73.5W 30 KT...INLAND

[BensonTCwatcher]

We'll see if she's making the turn, but the stop by 5pm looks like it's right on schedule.

I'll update my specu-cast later this evening

So far so good

[cycloneye]

[wxwatcher91]

ok nobody jump on me I'm just saying what my eyes see... the reliability of my eyes will not be released at this time

I swear I'm seeing ENE motion... I tracked the eye on paper for the 2 hours that it was visible and I got about 60 to 70 degrees... looks like it's about 20 to 30 miles east of the 2nd forecast position...

if this observation is correct I'd expect a turn SOUTH and a loop but that is just me...

someone want to set me straight here???

[millibar]

MAYBE...the trend will continue, and this sucker will miss everyone!!!

Chuck

[gatorcane]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

still say an extreme eastern NC hit or a miss for the U.S. as I have been predicting for the past several days. The westerlies are too well established at her current lattitudes.

Models are coming more into agreement with my prediction...

[scostorms]

What could this ole' shingle do to Long Island? They are in the "cone of uncertainty" .

[cinlfla]

or a miss for the U.S.

That would be good. I have been watching all the wobbles myself today hoping it will hit no land.

[gatorcane]

just remember a couple of days ago the thinking was GA/FL. Look how it has shifted to the right. A miss for the U.S. would not surprise me at all.

[ccstorms]

Buoy getting interesting.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41002

[nequad]

Big change in the GFDL...

HURRICANE OPHELIA 16L

INITIAL TIME 18Z SEP 10

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 31.7 76.2 45./ 4.1
6 31.6 76.0 101./ 1.7
12 31.7 75.8 74./ 1.6
18 31.6 75.8 146./ 1.0
24 31.5 75.6 120./ 1.8
30 31.4 75.5 149./ 1.1
36 31.6 75.7 329./ 2.5
42 31.9 75.9 326./ 3.4
48 32.2 76.0 336./ 2.4
54 32.3 75.8 45./ 1.6
60 32.6 75.9 355./ 3.2
66 32.8 75.8 9./ 2.6
72 33.1 75.8 12./ 2.9
78 33.5 75.8 4./ 3.1
84 33.9 75.6 16./ 4.9
90 34.5 75.4 22./ 5.8
96 35.5 74.9 28./10.9
102 36.3 74.5 23./ 8.6
108 36.9 73.7 51./ 9.0
114 37.5 72.6 65./10.3
120 37.7 71.2 80./11.4
126 37.8 69.4 87./14.2

[nequad]

On that track the eye stays just offshore of Cape Hatteras...or right over the cape. Hard to say until I see the track in motion.

The 96HR plot is about 40 miles east of the Outer Banks

[jrod]

It looks like that high is indeed building like it has been forecast to, that should steer her into land. The good thing is there is a lot of dry air around her and the latest WV show the dry air wrecking the east side of the storm, if that trend continues it should not be a monster when it does make landfall. I am 90% certain it will make landfall and will begin a west motion by this time tommorow.

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE OPHELIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 18A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM EDT SAT SEP 10 2005

...HURRICANE HUNTER REPORTS OPHELIA JUST A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE
EAST...

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD
TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. THE HURRICANE WATCH MAY HAVE TO BE
SHIFTED NORTHWARD LATER TONIGHT OR SUNDAY. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...
GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 31.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.9 WEST OR ABOUT 255 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 235 MILES
SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

OPHELIA HAS BEEN DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. LITTLE MOTION IS
ANTICIPATED THE REST OF TONIGHT OR SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES... 45 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES...220 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 977 MB...28.85 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...31.8 N... 75.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...DRIFTING NORTHEASTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 80 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 977 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE OPHELIA (AL162005) ON 20050911 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050911 0000 050911 1200 050912 0000 050912 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 31.8N 75.9W 32.0N 76.0W 32.0N 76.6W 32.1N 77.4W
BAMM 31.8N 75.9W 32.2N 76.1W 32.2N 76.9W 32.4N 78.0W
A98E 31.8N 75.9W 31.6N 76.1W 31.8N 76.4W 31.7N 77.2W
LBAR 31.8N 75.9W 32.0N 75.3W 32.1N 74.1W 31.9N 72.4W
SHIP 70KTS 69KTS 69KTS 69KTS
DSHP 70KTS 69KTS 69KTS 69KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050913 0000 050914 0000 050915 0000 050916 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 32.3N 77.7W 32.2N 77.4W 33.9N 74.1W 35.2N 69.5W
BAMM 32.2N 78.4W 31.3N 77.1W 33.4N 72.5W 36.6N 67.8W
A98E 31.8N 77.4W 31.0N 79.5W 30.8N 79.3W 27.8N 78.7W
LBAR 31.6N 70.4W 30.6N 64.8W 31.8N 60.5W 33.4N 60.0W
SHIP 69KTS 65KTS 58KTS 48KTS
DSHP 69KTS 53KTS 31KTS 25KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 31.8N LONCUR = 75.9W DIRCUR = 0DEG SPDCUR = 0KT
LATM12 = 31.5N LONM12 = 76.6W DIRM12 = 37DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 30.1N LONM24 = 77.5W
WNDCUR = 70KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 70KT
CENPRS = 977MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 130NM RD34SE = 120NM RD34SW = 75NM RD34NW = 120NM




00:00z Models

[Rainband]

Good news

[cycloneye]

Good news

Yes the models wuth every new run haved trended more to the east meaning a brush to NC outer banks or out to sea.