WELCOME BACK Luis!!!cycloneye wrote:Rainband wrote:Good news
Yes the models wuth every new run haved trended more to the east meaning a brush to NC outer banks or out to sea.
Tropical Storm Ophelia
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Rainband
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Scorpion
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Lowpressure
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NCHurricane
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most other guidance still indicates a landfall, NOGAPS shifted left, with GFDN back into SC
18Z GFS/GFDL and 12Z UK all just miss the Outer Banks. So I'm not sure how "most other guidance indicates landfall". 18Z run of NGP was similar except it takes the center right over ERN NC.
Having said that...I feel we might see the models shift one more time..and maybe back to the west a bit. Before all is said and done I think she will eventually make landfall between Cape Lookout and Cape Hatteras early Wednesday.
Just an opinion..not a forecast.
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Stratosphere747
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Lowpressure wrote:NHC appears to have missed this one pretty bad. Before someone jumps to defend the NHC, they originally predicted a Florida strike the wnw possibly into the NE Gulf. O might be a fish, that is a bust.
About all you will find with respect to a Florida strike was when O was a depression, and we all agree how low confidence those forecasts are. To which they openly admitted to.
I doubt they ever called for a Flordia strike once it was a TS.
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cycloneye
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217
WTNT41 KNHC 110237
TCDAT1
HURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT SEP 10 2005
SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING THE EVENING SHOWS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
OF OPHELIA HAS BECOME PARTIALLY EXPOSED ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
CONVECTION. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT INDICATE A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 977-978 MB AND AN EYEWALL
OPEN IN THE SOUTH SEMICIRCLE. MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT 700 MB
ARE 79 KT IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT...WHILE EYEWALL DROPSONDES IN
THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHEAST QUADRANTS INDICATED 60-65 KT SURFACE
WINDS. SINCE THE AIRCRAFT DATA IS ESSENTIALLY IDENTICAL TO THE
PREVIOUS FLIGHT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 70 KT.
OPHELIA HAS DRIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OVER THE PAST 6
HR BUT IS NOW NEARLY STATIONARY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGES CENTERED OVER WESTERN TENNESSEE AND
NEAR 25N57W...WITH OPHELIA IN BETWEEN. THE LATEST LARGE-SCALE
MODEL RUNS FORECAST THIS COMBINATION TO KEEP OPHELIA NEARLY
STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS...FOLLOWED BY A SLOW GENERALLY
NORTHWARD MOTION AS THE U. S. RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE
ALTANTIC. THE GUIDANCE IS STILL WELL SPREAD...WITH THE LEFT
OUTLIERS OF THE GFDN AND THE CANADIAN CALLING FOR LANDFALL IN SOUTH
CAROLINA AND THE RIGHT OUTLIERS OF THE GFS AND GFDL CALLING FOR THE
STORM TO PASS EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS
SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT AND A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE...AND IS ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE MAIN ENVELOPE OF GUIDANCE.
THE NEW TRACK HAS A SMALL LOOP IN THE FIRST 24-36 HR...AS MUCH OF
THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT OPHELIA WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD DURING PART
OF THAT TIME.
OPHELIA CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR...
AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ABUNDANT DRY AIR WEST OF THE CYCLONE.
THESE HAVE PROBABLY ERODED THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE TO SOME DEGREE.
HOWEVER...THE LARGEST FACTOR CONTROLLING THE INTENSITY IS LIKELY TO
BE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND UPWELLING OF COLD WATER UNDERNEATH
THE SLOW-MOVING STORM. NOAA BUOY 41002 LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTER IS REPORTING AN SST OF 27.2C...AND A DRIFTING BUOY SOUTH OF
THE CENTER IS REPORTING 24.4C...DOWN ALMOST 3C FROM BEFORE OPHELIA
PASSED OVER IT. ELSEWHERE IN THE AREA...SSTS ARE BETWEEN 27-28C
EXCEPT IN THE RELATIVELY NARROW GULF STREAM. SHOULD OPHELIA MOVE
AS SLOWLY AS FORECAST...IT MAY UPWELL ENOUGH COLD WATER TO SUPPRESS
DEVELOPMENT. THE GFDL...SHIPS...AND SUPERENSEMBLE ALL SHOW A
LITTLE STRENGTHENING THROUGH 30 HR...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST
FOLLOWS SUIT. HOWEVER...THOSE MODELS ALL FORECAST WEAKENING AFTER
36-48 HR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL NOT YET FOLLOW THAT
SCENARIO...BUT IT IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY.
THE HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST
U. S. COAST WITH NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME. IF OPHELIA IS TO BEGIN A
TRACK LIKE THAT OF THE GFDN OR CANADIAN TOWARD SOUTH CAROLINA...IT
SHOULD HAPPEN WITHIN THE NEXT 24-36 HR. THEREFORE...IT IS TOO
EARLY TO SOUND AN ALL CLEAR FOR ANY PART OF THE AREA CURRENTLY
UNDER THE HURRICANE WATCH.
FORECASTER BEVEN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 11/0300Z 31.8N 75.8W 70 KT
12HR VT 11/1200Z 31.7N 75.8W 70 KT
24HR VT 12/0000Z 31.7N 76.1W 75 KT
36HR VT 12/1200Z 32.0N 76.4W 75 KT
48HR VT 13/0000Z 32.4N 76.7W 75 KT
72HR VT 14/0000Z 33.5N 77.5W 75 KT
96HR VT 15/0000Z 35.5N 76.5W 45 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 16/0000Z 38.0N 73.0W 35 KT...OVER WATER
WTNT41 KNHC 110237
TCDAT1
HURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT SEP 10 2005
SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING THE EVENING SHOWS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
OF OPHELIA HAS BECOME PARTIALLY EXPOSED ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
CONVECTION. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT INDICATE A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 977-978 MB AND AN EYEWALL
OPEN IN THE SOUTH SEMICIRCLE. MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT 700 MB
ARE 79 KT IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT...WHILE EYEWALL DROPSONDES IN
THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHEAST QUADRANTS INDICATED 60-65 KT SURFACE
WINDS. SINCE THE AIRCRAFT DATA IS ESSENTIALLY IDENTICAL TO THE
PREVIOUS FLIGHT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 70 KT.
OPHELIA HAS DRIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OVER THE PAST 6
HR BUT IS NOW NEARLY STATIONARY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGES CENTERED OVER WESTERN TENNESSEE AND
NEAR 25N57W...WITH OPHELIA IN BETWEEN. THE LATEST LARGE-SCALE
MODEL RUNS FORECAST THIS COMBINATION TO KEEP OPHELIA NEARLY
STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS...FOLLOWED BY A SLOW GENERALLY
NORTHWARD MOTION AS THE U. S. RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE
ALTANTIC. THE GUIDANCE IS STILL WELL SPREAD...WITH THE LEFT
OUTLIERS OF THE GFDN AND THE CANADIAN CALLING FOR LANDFALL IN SOUTH
CAROLINA AND THE RIGHT OUTLIERS OF THE GFS AND GFDL CALLING FOR THE
STORM TO PASS EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS
SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT AND A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE...AND IS ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE MAIN ENVELOPE OF GUIDANCE.
THE NEW TRACK HAS A SMALL LOOP IN THE FIRST 24-36 HR...AS MUCH OF
THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT OPHELIA WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD DURING PART
OF THAT TIME.
OPHELIA CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR...
AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ABUNDANT DRY AIR WEST OF THE CYCLONE.
THESE HAVE PROBABLY ERODED THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE TO SOME DEGREE.
HOWEVER...THE LARGEST FACTOR CONTROLLING THE INTENSITY IS LIKELY TO
BE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND UPWELLING OF COLD WATER UNDERNEATH
THE SLOW-MOVING STORM. NOAA BUOY 41002 LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTER IS REPORTING AN SST OF 27.2C...AND A DRIFTING BUOY SOUTH OF
THE CENTER IS REPORTING 24.4C...DOWN ALMOST 3C FROM BEFORE OPHELIA
PASSED OVER IT. ELSEWHERE IN THE AREA...SSTS ARE BETWEEN 27-28C
EXCEPT IN THE RELATIVELY NARROW GULF STREAM. SHOULD OPHELIA MOVE
AS SLOWLY AS FORECAST...IT MAY UPWELL ENOUGH COLD WATER TO SUPPRESS
DEVELOPMENT. THE GFDL...SHIPS...AND SUPERENSEMBLE ALL SHOW A
LITTLE STRENGTHENING THROUGH 30 HR...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST
FOLLOWS SUIT. HOWEVER...THOSE MODELS ALL FORECAST WEAKENING AFTER
36-48 HR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL NOT YET FOLLOW THAT
SCENARIO...BUT IT IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY.
THE HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST
U. S. COAST WITH NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME. IF OPHELIA IS TO BEGIN A
TRACK LIKE THAT OF THE GFDN OR CANADIAN TOWARD SOUTH CAROLINA...IT
SHOULD HAPPEN WITHIN THE NEXT 24-36 HR. THEREFORE...IT IS TOO
EARLY TO SOUND AN ALL CLEAR FOR ANY PART OF THE AREA CURRENTLY
UNDER THE HURRICANE WATCH.
FORECASTER BEVEN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 11/0300Z 31.8N 75.8W 70 KT
12HR VT 11/1200Z 31.7N 75.8W 70 KT
24HR VT 12/0000Z 31.7N 76.1W 75 KT
36HR VT 12/1200Z 32.0N 76.4W 75 KT
48HR VT 13/0000Z 32.4N 76.7W 75 KT
72HR VT 14/0000Z 33.5N 77.5W 75 KT
96HR VT 15/0000Z 35.5N 76.5W 45 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 16/0000Z 38.0N 73.0W 35 KT...OVER WATER
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Brent
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HURRICANE OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162005
0300Z SUN SEP 11 2005
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD
TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. THE HURRICANE WATCH MAY HAVE TO BE
SHIFTED NORTHWARD ON SUNDAY. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OPHELIA.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 75.8W AT 11/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 MB
EYE DIAMETER 40 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 35SW 50NW.
34 KT.......130NE 120SE 75SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..175NE 175SE 210SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 75.8W AT 11/0300Z
AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 75.9W
FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 31.7N 75.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 75SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 31.7N 76.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 75SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 32.0N 76.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 75SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 32.4N 76.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 75SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 33.5N 77.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 75SW 120NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 35.5N 76.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 38.0N 73.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.8N 75.8W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z
FORECASTER BEVEN
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162005
0300Z SUN SEP 11 2005
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD
TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. THE HURRICANE WATCH MAY HAVE TO BE
SHIFTED NORTHWARD ON SUNDAY. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OPHELIA.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 75.8W AT 11/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 MB
EYE DIAMETER 40 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 35SW 50NW.
34 KT.......130NE 120SE 75SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..175NE 175SE 210SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 75.8W AT 11/0300Z
AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 75.9W
FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 31.7N 75.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 75SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 31.7N 76.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 75SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 32.0N 76.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 75SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 32.4N 76.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 75SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 33.5N 77.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 75SW 120NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 35.5N 76.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 38.0N 73.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.8N 75.8W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z
FORECASTER BEVEN
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#neversummer
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Brent
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Hurricane Ophelia Advisory Number 19
Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on September 10, 2005
...Ophelia again nearly stationary with little change in strength...
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the southeast coast of the
United States from the Savannah River South Carolina northeastward
to Cape Lookout North Carolina. The Hurricane Watch may have to be
shifted northward on Sunday. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane
conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36
hours.
Interests elsewhere in the southeastern United States coast should
monitor the progress of Ophelia.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
At 11 PM EDT...0300z...the center of Hurricane Ophelia was located
near latitude 31.8 north...longitude 75.8 west or about 255 miles
east-southeast of Charleston South Carolina and about 235 miles
south of Cape Hatteras North Carolina.
Ophelia is nearly stationary and little motion is expected tonight
and Sunday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph...130 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Ophelia is a category one hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
scale. Slow strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours.
NOAA buoy 41002 located northeast of the center recently reported
sustained winds of 47 mph.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 30 miles... 45 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 150 miles...240 km.
The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve
hurricane hunter aircraft is 978 mb...28.88 inches.
Repeating the 11 PM EDT position...31.8 N... 75.8 W. Movement
...Stationary. Maximum sustained
winds... 80 mph. Minimum central pressure... 978 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 2 am EDT followed by the next
complete advisory at 5 am EDT.
Forecaster Beven
Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on September 10, 2005
...Ophelia again nearly stationary with little change in strength...
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the southeast coast of the
United States from the Savannah River South Carolina northeastward
to Cape Lookout North Carolina. The Hurricane Watch may have to be
shifted northward on Sunday. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane
conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36
hours.
Interests elsewhere in the southeastern United States coast should
monitor the progress of Ophelia.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
At 11 PM EDT...0300z...the center of Hurricane Ophelia was located
near latitude 31.8 north...longitude 75.8 west or about 255 miles
east-southeast of Charleston South Carolina and about 235 miles
south of Cape Hatteras North Carolina.
Ophelia is nearly stationary and little motion is expected tonight
and Sunday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph...130 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Ophelia is a category one hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
scale. Slow strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours.
NOAA buoy 41002 located northeast of the center recently reported
sustained winds of 47 mph.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 30 miles... 45 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 150 miles...240 km.
The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve
hurricane hunter aircraft is 978 mb...28.88 inches.
Repeating the 11 PM EDT position...31.8 N... 75.8 W. Movement
...Stationary. Maximum sustained
winds... 80 mph. Minimum central pressure... 978 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 2 am EDT followed by the next
complete advisory at 5 am EDT.
Forecaster Beven
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#neversummer
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Rainband
I disagree..they have done the best they could. Look at all the features influencing this storm. With all due respect..could you have done better????Lowpressure wrote:NHC appears to have missed this one pretty bad. Before someone jumps to defend the NHC, they originally predicted a Florida strike the wnw possibly into the NE Gulf. O might be a fish, that is a bust.
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krysof
NCEP seems to be having data problems. NAM and GFS both running late.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/prodstat_new/
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/prodstat_new/
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