Hurricane Katrina

[Scorpion]

So 1 PM will have 125 mph correct?

[djtil]

125? id vote no way. 115 will hold at 1pm

[StormsAhead]

125? id vote no way. 115 will hold at 1pm

Well Recon supports 125...especially if the pressure is now in the 930's.

[djtil]

pressure is in the 930s? i wasnt expecting a drop based on sat....amazing.

[StormsAhead]

pressure is in the 930s? i wasnt expecting a drop based on sat....amazing.

It might be, I didn't say it was. But it would only take a drop of 1mb for that to happen, and the storm has been deepening all day.

[artist]

last hurricane it seemed so much easier keeping most of the posts in one thread - I know some complained about the length of the thread but it helps prevent the feeling of chaos and panic that those on the Gulf coast get when they see some of the titles of the new threads. It would be nice if we could try to limit it for their sakes. And for those of you that don't like the long threads - just remember to start back about 2 pages to be able to get back up to date if you have been away for awhile.

[Scorpion]

If this storm has 930's pressure with 120 mph that would be insane. Never seen a storm with such low pressure and low winds.

[jkt21787]

Pressure is 949 now.

[Thunder44]

Dr. Lyons just said that the plane just reported a pressure of 949mb.

[Scorpion]

Thats a BIG pressure rise, although Ivan did something like that as well, he rose from like 919 to 940 when he neared Jamaica.

[jkt21787]

Thats a BIG pressure rise.

ERC most likely.

[drezee]

Storm KATRINA: Observed By NOAA #3
Storm #12 in Atlantic Ocean1
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 87KT (100.1mph 161.1km/h) In Quadrant At AD 1441Z
Estimated Max Surface Winds 78.3KT (90.0mph 145.0km/h) *
Date/Time of Recon Report: NaN (NaN)
Position of the center: 24° 28' N 85° 06' W (24.5°N 85.1°W)
Minimum Height Measured At Standard Level Of 700mb: 2650m (Normal: 3011)
Surface Winds Were Estimated At: KT (0MPH 0.0km/h)
Estimated Surface Winds Were Measured nm (0miles) From Center At Bearing °
Maximum Flight Level Winds Near Center Were 87KT (100.05mph 161.1km/h) From 130°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were Measured 44nm (50.6 miles) From Center At Bearing 040°
Minimum pressure: 949mb (28.02in)
Eye Wall Was Characterized As Being: OPEN NW
Eye Form Was Characterized As Being Circular (Two Eyewalls) , C013-40
Center Fix Established Using: Penetration Radar Wind Pressure
Center Fix Established At Level(s): 700mb
Navigational Accuracy Measured At 1nm
Meteorological Accuracy Measured At 3nm
* = Estimated Surface Winds are assumed 90% of Max Flight Level Winds

[Sanibel]

Good sign. Pressure rise to 949. Could limit landfall strength.

[lapeym]

Must be the work of the praying nuns in NO.

[WindRunner]

Yeah, definately a cycle going on. We'll start to see it reintensify at 11 tonight, maybe a tad at 5.

[StormsAhead]

UZNT13 KWBC 271542
XXAA 77158 99244 70851 08145 99950 278// 33002 00/// ///// /////
92234 26600 33501 85981 22800 31005 88999 77999
31313 09608 81504
61616 NOAA3 1312A KATRINA OB 06
62626 SPL 2443N08507W 1517 WL150 31001 085 MBL WND 32001=
XXBB 77158 99244 70851 08145 00950 278// 11948 27800 22711 16200
33672 15011
21212 00950 33002 11712 31008 22672 23503
31313 09608 81504
61616 NOAA3 1312A KATRINA OB 06
62626 SPL 2443N08507W 1517 WL150 31001 085 MBL WND 32001=

950mb dropsonde...

[jkt21787]

TWO EYEWALLS...

ERC IS happening...could be trouble once completed...

[ALhurricane]

What is kind of amazing to me is the fact that the winds never seemed to respond to the 940mb pressure. I really don't have an answer for that one, but it does make me curious.

[StormsAhead]

URNT40 KWBC 271530
NOAA3 1312A KATRINA
152030 2444 08514 10549 -0574 065072 +170 +085 067073 060 003
152100 2444 08516 10570 -0539 058069 +166 +083 061071 999 999
152130 2443 08519 10567 -0519 051067 +163 +091 053067 999 999
152200 2441 08522 10559 -0518 047067 +166 +089 046068 062 003
152230 2439 08523 10556 -0521 042069 +167 +094 045069 999 999
152300 2437 08525 10563 -0525 031066 +165 +100 036066 063 002
152330 2434 08525 10564 -0536 019064 +160 +098 019065 999 999
152400 2432 08524 10557 -0573 014066 +149 +100 014066 999 999
152430 2431 08522 10562 -0630 011069 +147 +102 010070 999 999
152500 2430 08520 10570 -0698 012069 +153 +119 010069 061 005
152530 2431 08518 10618 -0766 015072 +149 +122 018074 064 004
152600 2431 08516 10798 -0830 023067 +146 +138 019073 066 005
152630 2432 08514 10865 -0903 037066 +151 +135 041068 068 005
152700 2432 08512 10944 -0967 047058 +150 +131 043063 061 002
152730 2432 08510 10956 -0994 064052 +154 +123 059053 999 999
152800 2434 08509 10904 -0973 077058 +153 +133 079061 999 999
152830 2436 08508 10830 -0899 085072 +163 +130 085074 062 002
152900 2438 08509 10767 -0812 082077 +172 +131 081078 068 003
152930 2439 08511 10698 -0734 081078 +167 +138 080079 067 003
153000 2441 08513 10664 -0670 076079 +151 +118 078080 061 003

URNT40 KWBC 271540
NOAA3 1312A KATRINA
153030 2442 08516 10597 -0616 062074 +162 +094 068076 062 002
153100 2442 08519 10527 -0574 051072 +166 +095 048073 059 002
153130 2441 08522 10488 -0548 045073 +159 +091 048074 058 002
153200 2440 08524 10471 -0533 039075 +155 +099 037076 060 003
153230 2438 08527 10446 -0528 031073 +158 +105 035076 065 003
153300 2435 08528 10498 -0521 021070 +160 +106 025070 068 004
153330 2433 08529 10475 -0522 013067 +153 +106 015069 068 005
153400 2430 08529 10497 -0535 008063 +148 +101 010064 068 005
153430 2428 08528 10494 -0556 358061 +150 +100 355061 068 005
153500 2426 08526 10535 -0585 350062 +150 +100 347063 068 005
153530 2423 08525 10575 -0590 340063 +144 +102 338063 068 005
153600 2421 08524 10545 -0573 330063 +137 +110 328063 068 005
153630 2418 08525 10493 -0546 325062 +147 +105 326063 068 005
153700 2416 08526 10434 -0509 323062 +145 +109 323064 067 005
153730 2415 08528 10400 -0474 323062 +143 +106 323063 070 007
153800 2413 08529 10445 -0432 328066 +132 +125 328067 999 999
153830 2412 08531 10446 -0398 328072 +126 +126 327075 999 999
153900 2410 08533 10426 -0360 324074 +121 +121 326076 999 999
153930 2409 08534 10357 -0335 323076 +112 +112 321081 999 999
154000 2407 08536 10385 -0295 323074 +112 +112 321075 999 999

[Scorpion]

Its an ERC Sanibel.