Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

[skysummit]

That's not the latest image. The 1525 image shows what looks like dryer air on the northern edge of the eyewall. I admit though....it's FAR from sick.

Classic indications that ERC is occurring, the dryer air is in fact the moat, the area between the outer and inner eyewall.

Yup...I agree.

[conestogo_flood]

Should I be hoping this goes into mainland Monroe County? Only about 100 people live there, so wouldn't that be much much better if Wilma made landfall there? I know, I haven't forgot about the Keys, but northern Monroe County has such an extremely low population.

[cjrciadt]

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/RAMM/Rmsdsol/TROPICAL.html
Watch the eye doing a half loop.

[Rae]

That makes sense. I couldn't figure out how dry air could get in there. Thanks.

[bayoubebe]

How does Wilma compare with Katrina?

Will it be Katrina like?

[shawn67]

That's the latest one from NOAA...I'll check again when it updates. But I have a question. How can dry air make it into the eye wall when there's so much moisture wrapped around it?

It can't...at least not in the short term.

Shawn

[gatorcane]

Should I be hoping this goes into mainland Monroe County? Only about 100 people live there, so wouldn't that be much much better if Wilma made landfall there? I know, I haven't forgot about the Keys, but northern Monroe County has such an extremely low population.

No because if it comes inland there metro Palm Beach/Ft. Lauderdale/Miami will be devastated.

[x-y-no]

12Z GFS is somewhat further left so far (54 hours) - heading north over the eastern Yucatan.

[Vandora]

Should I be hoping this goes into mainland Monroe County? Only about 100 people live there, so wouldn't that be much much better if Wilma made landfall there? I know, I haven't forgot about the Keys, but northern Monroe County has such an extremely low population.

No because if it comes inland there metro Palm Beach/Ft. Lauderdale/Miami will be devastated.

Yes, please don't wish it to go there.

[WeatherEmperor]

Everyone in South Fla...please think long and hard about staying put...Even though the winds are forecast to decrease, The surge she is building as we speak...she will take with her. My prayers go out to everyone in the southern half of my state, don't take chances...do what you feel is best for you and your family in order to stay safe.

I agree. Eventhough it is forecast to move fast, I somehow feel this is going to be the worst south florida hurricane event since Andrew

<RICKY>

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS is somewhat further left so far (54 hours) - heading north over the eastern Yucatan

Yes, I expected this. I really think the models jumped to quickly on this trough. They should relax some over the next 24-48 hours which will shift the track left and bring landfall into the Tampa Bay-Sarasota-Bradenton area.

That's just an opinion.

[linkerweather]

12z GFS has slowed down cosiderably. From 06z forecast for 12z Sat had it approaching the Keys, now the 12z run has it over Cozumel and not turning yet

[shawn67]

That's not the latest image. The 1525 image shows what looks like dryer air on the northern edge of the eyewall. I admit though....it's FAR from sick.

Classic indications that ERC is occurring, the dryer air is in fact the moat, the area between the outer and inner eyewall.

Yup...I agree.

I know we all love to throw around ERC's in our posts but can we possibly wait for some hard evidence before (like a VDM) before we talk about an ERC with certainty???

Shawn

[stormy1959]

Can trough pick up Wilma this far south?

[gatorcane]

12z GFS has slowed down cosiderably. From 06z forecast for 12z Sat had it approaching the Keys, now the 12z run has it over Cozumel and not turning yet

Josh, what's to mood like up in Tampa Bay? I seriously think that Wilma could greatly impact the area.

[Scorpion]

12Z seems like a garbage run to me. Shows it stalled over Cozumel in 72 hours.

[x-y-no]

12Z GFS at 72 hours

Storm leaving northeast tip of Yucatan:

[scogor]

I assume this does not bode well for those of us (Sarasota County) north of the official NHC "center line"?

[JPmia]

Everyone in South Fla...please think long and hard about staying put...Even though the winds are forecast to decrease, The surge she is building as we speak...she will take with her. My prayers go out to everyone in the southern half of my state, don't take chances...do what you feel is best for you and your family in order to stay safe.

I agree. Eventhough it is forecast to move fast, I somehow feel this is going to be the worst south florida hurricane event since Andrew

<RICKY>

I would like people to listen to their EOC for evacuations. The last thing we need is about 1 million people driving from Miami to Georgia during the height of a state crossing hurricane! Many of us will likely be advised to stay at home unless we are in an evacuation zone. I plan on staying home, I am not going to evacuate to a place that could get hit as well.

[Rae]

Is GOES down? It hasn't updated since 1515. Anyone have another radar link?

TIA