Hurricane Katrina

[Scorpion]

The pressure drop begins.

[StormsAhead]

The pressure drop begins.

Not yet...it has only been a few hours, and the outer eyewall is still dominant. It takes 12-18 hours to recover from an EWRC.

[Seele]

Pressure may have become steady...

I will be supprised and in awe if the pressure tops out at 949 during this EWR.

[Rainband]

I am Glad it's moving away from us sanibel

[StormsAhead]

Pressure may have become steady...

I will be supprised and in awe if the pressure tops out at 949 during this EWR.

Yes, I should have said "for now".

[WindRunner]

It would say something for its true strength, though

[StormsAhead]

URNT40 KWBC 271720
NOAA3 1312A KATRINA
171030 2510 08614 10026 +0046 044063 +112 +091 044064 046 003
171100 2511 08616 10032 +0060 044064 +110 +088 044064 045 002
171130 2512 08618 10024 +0072 046063 +111 +085 046064 045 002
171200 2514 08619 10027 +0087 046061 +112 +085 046062 045 001
171230 2515 08621 10032 +0100 045057 +108 +085 045058 044 001
171300 2517 08622 10029 +0110 047057 +105 +087 046057 042 001
171330 2518 08624 10027 +0116 047056 +111 +080 046057 041 003
171400 2519 08625 10031 +0127 047055 +111 +081 047055 041 002
171430 2521 08627 10033 +0136 049054 +110 +081 048054 041 002
171500 2522 08629 10032 +0142 047053 +111 +081 049054 040 001
171530 2524 08630 10033 +0151 045050 +111 +085 046051 038 002
171600 2525 08632 10025 +0159 047049 +114 +079 046050 040 002
171630 2527 08634 10025 +0166 048050 +112 +085 048051 040 003
171700 2528 08635 10027 +0171 048049 +119 +074 049050 038 002
171730 2530 08637 10025 +0175 048048 +119 +074 047049 036 002
171800 2531 08638 10029 +0176 046046 +117 +073 046047 037 002
171830 2533 08640 10028 +0183 047045 +118 +072 047046 039 001
171900 2533 08642 10020 +0194 046044 +118 +073 046044 999 999
171930 2532 08644 10021 +0194 046044 +122 +067 046045 999 999
172000 2530 08645 10034 +0189 043045 +118 +073 044046 041 006

By the way, there has been no northward motion...in fact it has moved 6'S 9'W...or between SW and WSW...during the past hour and a half. That much southward motion is probably a short-term wobble, but definitely not a northward turn yet.

[StormsAhead]

SXXX50 KNHC 271727
AF306 WX12A KATRINA01 HDOB 11 KNHC
1707 2446N 08540W 03614 5051 037 082 114 060 083 03609 0000000000
1707. 2445N 08539W 03442 5081 038 083 132 080 083 03407 0000000000
1708 2443N 08538W 03255 5111 038 071 142 106 076 03189 0000000000
1708. 2442N 08536W 03010 5151 042 068 166 112 069 02903 0000000000
1709 2441N 08535W 02673 5192 042 066 158 134 067 02525 0000000000
1709. 2439N 08533W 02465 5221 037 060 178 132 061 02287 0000000000
1710 2438N 08532W 02436 5239 034 058 192 124 059 02241 0000000000
1710. 2436N 08531W 02439 5247 034 058 196 120 060 02235 0000000000
1711 2435N 08529W 02441 5256 034 058 204 118 059 02227 0000000000
1711. 2434N 08528W 02441 5268 033 057 194 126 057 02216 0000000000
1712 2433N 08526W 02437 5284 035 059 192 148 060 02196 0000000000
1712. 2433N 08525W 02442 5298 034 060 196 154 061 02188 0000000000
1713 2432N 08523W 02428 5315 037 063 214 146 064 02156 0000000000
1713. 2431N 08522W 02447 5337 032 062 210 138 063 02153 0000000000
1714 2430N 08520W 02433 5356 042 046 206 164 051 02120 0000000000
1714. 2429N 08518W 02438 5372 061 037 204 160 040 02109 0000000000
1715 2428N 08517W 02444 5388 065 028 198 162 034 02099 0000000000
1715. 2426N 08517W 02437 5400 050 015 182 170 019 02080 0000000000
1716 2425N 08515W 02436 5405 070 004 176 176 007 02074 0000000000
1716. 2424N 08514W 02437 5408 221 005 176 176 008 02071 0000000000

AF plane passing through the eye...83 knots

[Scorpion]

Bad news for NOLA that the north turn hasnt occured yet....

[HurricaneGirl]

Heres a good loop showing the concentric eyewalls.
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

Another visible showing concentric eyewalls and ERC, (I think).
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/visir/atlantic/visirjava2.html

[WindRunner]

It could have been higher, though. Is there a page to go to for a minobs archive?

[StormsAhead]

RECCO OBSERVATION
Flight: NOAA3 1312A
Observation #: 12
Time: 17:20Z
Location: 25.4N 86.8W
Altitude: 3060 meters
Flight-level wind: NE (50°) at 46 knots
Temperature: 12C
Dew Point: 7C
Weather: Overcast
700-mb Height: 3066 meters

[StormsAhead]

URNT12 KNHC 271734
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 27/17:15:50Z
B. 24 deg 25 min N
085 deg 15 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 60 kt
E. 310 deg 019 nm
F. 040 deg 083 kt
G. 314 deg 038 nm
H. 950 mb
I. 9 C/ 3657 m
J. 18 C/ 2436 m
K. 18 C/ NA
L. OPEN SE
M. C50
N. 12345/NA
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF306 WX12A KATRINA01 OB 05
MAX FL WIND 83 KT NW QUAD 17:05:10 Z
MAX FL TEMP 21 C, 309 / 16NM
OUTER EYE ON RADAR 50 NM DIA OPEN SE.
INNER EYE 40% COVERAGE SSW - SE

This one shows a northward motion, but it's still south-southwest from two hours ago. The inner eyewall is covering only 40%, so it's technically not even a new eye yet.

[mtm4319]

On the GHCC loop, the bright whites are starting to flare up again on the east side.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html

[JtSmarts]

Very deep convection occuring in Eastern quadrant.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... IR4/20.jpg

[StormsAhead]

SXXX50 KNHC 271738
AF306 WX12A KATRINA01 HDOB 13 KNHC
1727 2400N 08447W 02439 5104 220 083 108 108 083 02379 0000000000
1727. 2359N 08446W 02437 5096 219 086 112 112 088 02385 0000000000
1728 2358N 08445W 02441 5088 217 087 120 120 088 02397 0000000000
1728. 2357N 08444W 02436 5082 215 089 124 116 089 02398 0000000000
1729 2355N 08443W 02443 5075 216 084 130 118 084 02411 0000000000
1729. 2354N 08442W 02435 5070 216 080 126 126 081 02409 0000000000
1730 2353N 08440W 02440 5065 219 079 128 120 081 02419 0000000000
1730. 2352N 08439W 02437 5060 219 081 132 110 083 02421 0000000000
1731 2351N 08438W 02437 5057 221 081 130 112 082 02423 0000000000
1731. 2350N 08437W 02444 5053 222 080 112 112 082 02435 0000000000
1732 2349N 08436W 02434 5048 217 077 096 096 079 02430 0000000000
1732. 2348N 08434W 02439 5043 218 075 110 110 076 02440 0000000000
1733 2347N 08433W 02439 5039 220 074 120 120 074 02444 0000000000
1733. 2346N 08432W 02438 5036 221 074 128 122 075 02447 0000000000
1734 2344N 08431W 02440 5033 222 073 120 120 074 02451 0000000000
1734. 2343N 08430W 02438 5030 223 072 106 106 074 02452 0000000000
1735 2342N 08428W 02438 5027 224 072 112 112 073 02455 0000000000
1735. 2341N 08427W 02437 5022 225 072 126 114 073 02459 0000000000
1736 2340N 08426W 02438 5019 224 071 128 108 071 02464 0000000000
1736. 2339N 08425W 02438 5016 224 072 134 106 072 02466 0000000000

89 knots

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE KATRINA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2005

...CATEGORY THREE KATRINA MOVING WESTWARD IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH THE PAST FEW HOURS...

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF
LOUISIANA EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER...
INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONCHARTRAIN. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR OTHER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. INTERESTS IN THIS AREA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KATRINA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT WEST OF KEY WEST TO THE
DRY TORTUGAS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.4 WEST OR ABOUT 390 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND ABOUT 230
MILES WEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
KATRINA IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND
KATRINA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150
MILES. NOAA BUOY 42003 LOCATED NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER RECENTLY
REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 46 MPH WITH A GUST TO 56 MPH.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A NOAA HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 949 MB...28.02 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA SHOULD
SUBSIDE TODAY.

KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES
OVER WESTERN CUBA...AND 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. RAINFALL FROM KATRINA SHOULD BEGIN TO PUSH
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
EVENING.

REPEATING THE 1 PM CDT POSITION...24.5 N... 85.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...115 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 949 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 4 PM CDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN

[StormsAhead]

It could have been higher, though. Is there a page to go to for a minobs archive?

There is, the NHC archives, but they are slow to update. Anyway, the vortex message confirms that 83 knots was the highest.

[StormsAhead]

RECCO OBSERVATION
Flight: NOAA3 1312A
Observation #: 13
Time: 17:35Z
Location: 24.3N 87.1W
Altitude: 3060 meters
Flight-level wind: NE (50°) at 45 knots
Temperature: 12C
Dew Point: 9C
Weather: Overcast
700-mb Height: 3063 meters

[Scorpion]

I have a feeling this is going to explode overnight. Ivan did almost the same(except rising 21 mb instead of 10)near Jamaica before bombing to 145 kts and 910 mb.