Hurricane Katrina

[StormsAhead]

URNT40 KWBC 271820
NOAA3 1312A KATRINA
181030 2428 08428 10048 -0120 185074 +113 +113 182081 039 025
181100 2428 08425 10018 -0104 183071 +113 +113 183075 051 013
181130 2428 08423 9983 -0086 183075 +109 +109 183078 050 014
181200 2428 08421 9988 -0065 184073 +107 +107 183073 047 017
181230 2428 08419 9986 -0047 185071 +108 +108 184072 045 015
181300 2428 08416 9967 -0027 186070 +108 +107 185070 044 012
181330 2428 08414 9982 -0012 184072 +112 +106 184073 045 015
181400 2428 08412 9978 -0004 187069 +113 +113 186071 042 020
181430 2428 08410 9990 +0008 188068 +107 +107 189069 056 015
181500 2428 08407 10027 +0018 178068 +104 +104 173071 043 030
181530 2428 08405 10428 +0055 179067 +097 +097 179070 055 030
181600 2428 08403 10391 +0072 175067 +100 +100 175074 050 026
181630 2428 08401 10106 +0068 175058 +099 +099 175059 047 015
181700 2427 08359 10044 +0077 175056 +101 +101 175057 048 008
181730 2427 08356 10025 +0088 177056 +101 +101 178058 047 006
181800 2427 08354 10034 +0099 179062 +101 +101 178064 044 007
181830 2427 08352 10025 +0107 181063 +105 +104 180064 043 009
181900 2427 08350 10040 +0119 179063 +111 +107 179065 038 016
181930 2427 08347 10031 +0119 176053 +109 +109 175055 036 023
182000 2427 08345 9991 +0115 177056 +107 +107 174057 032 027

[StormsAhead]

SXXX50 KNHC 271827
AF306 WX12A KATRINA01 HDOB 18 KNHC
1817 2505N 08356W 02438 0004 161 069 104 104 072 02486 0000000000
1817. 2507N 08356W 02438 0008 158 066 104 104 068 02489 0000000000
1818 2509N 08356W 02441 0009 150 073 098 098 075 02494 0000000000
1818. 2511N 08356W 02435 0012 144 065 114 114 068 02491 0000000000
1819 2513N 08357W 02441 0011 143 064 116 116 065 02495 0000000000
1819. 2516N 08357W 02438 0014 145 062 116 116 064 02495 0000000000
1820 2518N 08357W 02438 0015 147 053 116 116 054 02497 0000000000
1820. 2520N 08357W 02439 0016 148 052 120 120 054 02499 0000000000
1821 2522N 08357W 02438 0017 150 051 130 124 053 02499 0000000000
1821. 2524N 08357W 02436 0017 142 058 126 120 061 02497 0000000000
1822 2526N 08357W 02440 0018 140 062 124 122 063 02502 0000000000
1822. 2528N 08357W 02438 0019 138 064 124 122 064 02500 0000000000
1823 2530N 08357W 02439 0021 139 063 124 120 064 02503 0000000000
1823. 2532N 08358W 02438 0023 138 062 130 114 064 02505 0000000000
1824 2535N 08358W 02439 0024 137 060 132 108 060 02506 0000000000
1824. 2537N 08358W 02441 0029 137 057 134 102 058 02514 0000000000
1825 2538N 08400W 02440 0033 135 056 132 106 057 02516 0000000000
1825. 2537N 08401W 02433 0023 136 055 134 104 056 02500 0000000000
1826 2535N 08402W 02440 0021 135 054 134 110 056 02505 0000000000
1826. 2534N 08404W 02436 0019 134 053 128 116 054 02499 0000000000

[JamesFromMaine2]

yes it might continue to drop but don't even think that the storm is over with! When this ERC ends taking everything into consideration we could see the pressure drop dramaticly once the ERC is done! at this point I would say that every one along the Northern Golf coast should be prepaired for a strong cat 4 possible cat 5 to make land fall sometime monday!

[timNms]

Looks like the trough may be digging a bit farther SE on this WV loop:

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat ... op-12.html

Amazing view of the moisture feed from the Pacific also.

[Rainband]

Getting to be a Big Storm

[StormsAhead]

yes it might continue to drop but don't even think that the storm is over with! When this ERC ends taking everything into consideration we could see the pressure drop dramaticly once the ERC is done! at this point I would say that every one along the Northern Golf coast should be prepaired for a strong cat 4 possible cat 5 to make land fall sometime monday!

Very true, if anything it could set the stage for last-minute deepening, which would be devastating. ERC's occur with every hurricane that reaches this intensity, and this was expected to occur. The intensity of the hurricane now or even tomorrow morning has nothing to do with its intensity at landfall.

[StormsAhead]

URNT40 KWBC 271830
NOAA3 1312A KATRINA
182030 2427 08343 10029 +0132 182062 +108 +104 183062 049 014
182100 2427 08341 10053 +0150 183062 +107 +102 183062 048 011
182130 2427 08338 10055 +0152 184060 +110 +098 185060 046 009
182200 2427 08336 10059 +0161 183062 +107 +103 183062 045 008
182230 2427 08334 10054 +0164 183058 +105 +097 183060 045 008
182300 2427 08332 10049 +0168 186058 +102 +098 186059 043 011
182330 2427 08329 10060 -0385 178074 +104 +097 172109 048 006
182400 2427 08327 10055 +0187 185059 +108 +094 185059 046 007
182430 2427 08325 10058 +0194 186058 +108 +096 185059 047 007
182500 2427 08323 10067 +0204 184057 +107 +100 184057 045 008
182530 2426 08321 10046 +0204 185057 +107 +100 186057 046 010
182600 2425 08320 10061 +0206 188057 +103 +103 190058 039 016
182630 2423 08319 10109 +0216 185055 +100 +100 183057 043 014
182730 2420 08317 10041 +0218 188053 +099 +099 189053 047 012
182800 2419 08316 10023 +0215 193052 +106 +100 193053 051 010
182830 2417 08317 10007 +0214 190053 +105 +103 191053 050 010
182900 2415 08317 10013 +0216 193052 +108 +098 195052 049 009
182930 2414 08317 10011 +0217 193053 +111 +104 193054 047 008
183000 2412 08318 10013 +0217 191055 +109 +107 188056 046 008

109 knots...but mostly 50-65 knots.

[StormsAhead]

SXXX50 KNHC 271837
AF306 WX12A KATRINA01 HDOB 19 KNHC
1827 2533N 08405W 02441 0017 133 056 130 114 058 02501 0000000000
1827. 2532N 08406W 02439 0015 130 059 132 116 059 02497 0000000000
1828 2531N 08408W 02439 0014 131 058 136 110 059 02497 0000000000
1828. 2529N 08409W 02436 0013 137 053 130 116 055 02493 0000000000
1829 2528N 08411W 02438 0010 143 054 130 114 055 02492 0000000000
1829. 2527N 08412W 02440 0009 143 056 128 118 056 02492 0000000000
1830 2526N 08413W 02439 0005 136 057 134 118 058 02488 0000000000
1830. 2525N 08414W 02438 0002 132 057 132 122 059 02484 0000000000
1831 2524N 08416W 02437 0001 143 062 120 120 065 02481 0000000000
1831. 2523N 08417W 02438 5003 138 060 104 104 062 02478 0000000000
1832 2521N 08418W 02441 5006 141 057 122 122 059 02478 0000000000
1832. 2520N 08420W 02437 5009 144 058 130 114 059 02472 0000000000
1833 2519N 08421W 02437 5013 141 061 136 106 061 02468 0000000000
1833. 2518N 08422W 02440 5015 138 062 136 104 063 02469 0000000000
1834 2517N 08423W 02438 5018 139 061 136 106 063 02464 0000000000
1834. 2516N 08425W 02437 5020 141 058 134 110 059 02460 0000000000
1835 2515N 08426W 02438 5024 144 059 136 106 059 02458 0000000000
1835. 2513N 08427W 02438 5028 142 057 132 106 059 02453 0000000000
1836 2512N 08428W 02440 5031 139 055 126 118 056 02452 0000000000
1836. 2511N 08430W 02440 5035 132 055 110 110 057 02448 0000000000

[JtSmarts]

Does anyone know the dynamics of why these gulf storms tend to be giants?

[StormsAhead]

URNT12 KNHC 271745
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 27/1759Z
B. 24 DEG 27 MIN N
85 DEG 19 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2646 M
D. N/A
E. N/A
F. 340 DEG 89 KT
G. 255 DEG 31 NM
H. 948 MB
I. 12 C/ 3051 M
J. 17 C/ 3068 M
K. 14 C/ NA
L. OPEN W
M. C09-55
N. 1234/7
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA3 1312A KATRINA OB 18
MAX FL WIND 96 KTS EE QUAD 1645Z

This is interesting...besides a northward motion beginning, the pressure has dropped 2mb while there are still concentric eyewalls...

[StormsAhead]

SXXX50 KNHC 271847
AF306 WX12A KATRINA01 HDOB 20 KNHC
1837 2510N 08431W 02438 5038 133 068 104 104 075 02444 0000000000
1837. 2509N 08432W 02437 5042 132 076 108 108 079 02438 0000000000
1838 2508N 08434W 02438 5047 137 063 108 108 066 02435 0000000000
1838. 2506N 08435W 02439 5050 140 066 110 110 067 02432 0000000000
1839 2505N 08436W 02437 5054 146 068 108 108 070 02427 0000000000
1839. 2504N 08437W 02442 5059 140 069 114 114 073 02426 0000000000
1840 2503N 08439W 02438 5064 137 076 108 108 078 02418 0000000000
1840. 2502N 08440W 02437 5069 144 070 102 102 072 02412 0000000000
1841 2501N 08441W 02437 5074 149 072 106 106 073 02406 0000000000
1841. 2500N 08442W 02439 5078 148 074 124 124 074 02404 0000000000
1842 2459N 08443W 02440 5082 148 077 126 126 078 02402 0000000000
1842. 2458N 08445W 02438 5087 148 082 128 128 083 02394 0000000000
1843 2457N 08446W 02439 5094 146 080 130 130 080 02388 0000000000
1843. 2456N 08447W 02437 5101 144 085 116 116 088 02380 0000000000
1844 2455N 08448W 02437 5108 142 087 114 114 089 02372 0000000000
1844. 2454N 08449W 02442 5115 145 087 114 114 089 02370 0000000000
1845 2453N 08450W 02438 5124 149 087 126 126 089 02357 0000000000
1845. 2452N 08451W 02437 5133 151 090 132 132 091 02347 0000000000
1846 2451N 08452W 02441 5142 150 083 134 134 085 02342 0000000000
1846. 2450N 08454W 02439 5150 151 078 134 134 081 02332 0000000000

91 knots

[StormsAhead]

URNT40 KWBC 271840
NOAA3 1312A KATRINA
183030 2410 08318 10009 +0216 194053 +110 +102 191054 045 007
183100 2409 08318 10005 +0216 197053 +111 +100 196053 044 006
183130 2407 08319 10002 +0214 197053 +112 +098 196053 043 006
183200 2405 08319 10004 +0214 196052 +112 +083 198053 044 006
183230 2404 08319 10006 +0216 193051 +105 +092 193052 045 006
183300 2402 08319 10004 +0213 195050 +106 +092 196051 047 005
183330 2401 08320 10007 +0213 194049 +103 +098 196049 047 005
183400 2359 08320 10012 +0215 197052 +103 +097 197052 045 006
183430 2358 08321 10012 +0212 197054 +105 +102 198056 999 999
183500 2359 08323 10006 +0207 195054 +104 +099 195055 999 999
183530 2401 08324 10005 +0203 196055 +107 +095 197055 047 004
183600 2403 08325 10007 +0199 195055 +112 +090 196056 048 005
183630 2406 08325 10010 +0197 193056 +112 +087 192056 047 005
183700 2409 08325 10010 +0191 191055 +107 +098 191056 046 006
183730 2411 08325 10013 +0189 191055 +106 +102 191055 047 006
183800 2414 08326 10015 +0192 194054 +106 +101 193055 047 006
183830 2416 08326 10006 +0190 188055 +107 +103 188057 047 006
183900 2419 08326 10006 +0182 186057 +109 +094 190059 048 007
183930 2421 08326 10012 +0184 191058 +109 +099 191059 051 008
184000 2424 08327 10005 +0182 191056 +113 +100 192057 052 009

[StormsAhead]

SXXX50 KNHC 271857
AF306 WX12A KATRINA01 HDOB 21 KNHC
1847 2449N 08455W 02441 5159 152 084 132 132 091 02325 0000000000
1847. 2448N 08456W 02432 5174 150 094 128 128 098 02301 0000000000
1848 2447N 08457W 02446 5185 148 092 124 124 098 02305 0000000000
1848. 2446N 08458W 02444 5195 153 076 134 134 081 02292 0000000000
1849 2445N 08500W 02430 5208 150 072 148 148 074 02265 0000000000
1849. 2444N 08501W 02438 5221 148 070 154 154 075 02260 0000110010
1850 2443N 08502W 02435 5230 145 057 174 162 059 02248 0000000000
1850. 2442N 08504W 02443 5238 141 051 184 152 052 02248 0000000000
1851 2441N 08505W 02436 5248 140 050 192 142 051 02232 0000000000
1851. 2440N 08507W 02440 5257 140 053 190 136 054 02226 0000000000
1852 2439N 08508W 02437 5269 139 055 190 132 056 02211 0000000000
1852. 2438N 08510W 02439 5280 137 057 194 136 058 02202 0000000000
1853 2437N 08511W 02437 5292 143 061 198 132 063 02188 0000000000
1853. 2435N 08513W 02438 5309 141 062 196 146 063 02172 0000000000
1854 2434N 08514W 02439 5324 135 064 186 160 065 02158 0000000000
1854. 2433N 08516W 02442 5342 127 059 186 174 063 02143 0000000000
1855 2432N 08517W 02436 5362 125 050 186 176 053 02117 0000000000
1855. 2431N 08519W 02438 5380 123 040 192 166 045 02101 0000000000
1856 2430N 08520W 02439 5396 120 024 192 170 030 02087 0000000000
1856. 2428N 08521W 02435 5402 141 009 186 178 014 02076 0000000000

98 knots

[StormsAhead]

URNT40 KWBC 271850
NOAA3 1312A KATRINA
184030 2426 08327 10026 +0178 185057 +109 +098 184059 048 013
184100 2429 08327 10073 +0179 180058 +106 +106 174060 044 020
184130 2431 08327 10031 +0179 183058 +110 +105 184059 046 010
184200 2434 08328 9999 +0179 186061 +112 +094 184063 043 008
184230 2437 08328 10020 +0183 181061 +113 +090 179063 043 009
184300 2439 08328 10013 +0184 181066 +114 +087 179066 045 006
184330 2442 08328 10025 +0186 179063 +115 +090 178066 045 005
184400 2444 08329 10025 +0191 176060 +116 +091 176061 045 005
184430 2447 08329 10030 +0192 174057 +114 +083 175059 045 006
184500 2450 08329 10028 +0195 174055 +113 +093 174056 043 006
184530 2452 08329 10022 +0190 172054 +113 +093 172056 044 006
184600 2455 08330 10013 +0188 170057 +113 +101 167059 044 005
184630 2457 08330 10021 +0186 166063 +116 +094 167064 044 006
184700 2500 08330 10031 +0190 164064 +109 +103 167064 046 008
184730 2502 08331 10021 +0195 161061 +106 +105 156067 999 999
184800 2503 08333 10020 +0194 170060 +109 +095 169062 999 999
184830 2503 08336 10018 +0181 164058 +112 +097 166059 047 007
184900 2503 08338 10020 +0173 162057 +117 +089 162057 045 008
184930 2503 08340 10025 +0166 161060 +117 +082 162061 046 007
185000 2503 08343 10025 +0156 163062 +114 +086 164062 044 006

[StormsAhead]

EYE DROPSONDE
Flight: NOAA3 1312A
Observation #: 19
Location: 24.5N 85.3W
Surface: Pressure 948mb; Wind ESE (115°) at 10 knots
1000mb: Height N/A meters; Wind N/A (N/A°) at N/A knots
925mb: Height 215 meters; Wind SE (125°) at 8 knots
850mb: Height 962 meters; Wind ESE (115°) at 8 knots
700mb: Height 2640 meters; Wind N/A (N/A°) at N/A knots

[Seele]

I hope I'm reading this right, but it looks like the inner eye's wind maximum is lessing according to that last AF observation.

[StormsAhead]

URNT40 KWBC 271900
NOAA3 1312A KATRINA
185030 2503 08345 10027 +0147 165061 +111 +099 164062 045 007
185100 2503 08347 10023 +0136 163062 +112 +098 163064 046 006
185130 2502 08350 10019 +0130 163058 +112 +097 164059 042 005
185200 2502 08352 10020 +0121 164059 +108 +094 163059 042 006
185230 2502 08354 10024 +0110 162061 +109 +097 162065 039 009
185300 2502 08357 10038 +0097 163065 +103 +103 163070 020 028
185330 2501 08359 10079 +0097 162059 +105 +105 161061 044 020
185400 2501 08401 10084 +0086 157060 +104 +104 155061 026 020
185430 2501 08404 10110 +0080 163062 +100 +098 162063 040 017
185500 2501 08406 10087 +0078 163068 +108 +100 162070 040 010
185530 2501 08409 10004 +0064 161068 +107 +104 162069 037 008
185600 2500 08411 9990 +0050 158069 +110 +104 159070 039 009
185630 2500 08413 9982 +0041 156066 +115 +097 155068 039 009
185700 2500 08416 9995 -0675 161084 +111 +092 171116 040 006
185730 2500 08418 9997 -0704 162085 +108 +087 174121 042 004
185900 2500 08426 9998 -0041 155074 +108 +107 156079 047 012
185930 2500 08428 10034 -0057 156075 +106 +106 155076 051 013
190000 2500 08431 10053 -0074 154075 +109 +109 153076 051 012

121 knots- 110 at the surface...but again SFMR shows much less and the 30-second winds are much less.

[WindRunner]

I can't remember . . . SMRF?

[WindRunner]

SXXX50 KNHC 271927
AF306 WX12A KATRINA01 HDOB 24 KNHC
1917 2448N 08504W 02435 5216 138 110 122 122 114 02262 0000000000
1917. 2450N 08506W 02436 5215 131 110 122 122 112 02264 0000000000
1918 2452N 08508W 02439 5212 124 106 124 124 108 02270 0000000000
1918. 2454N 08510W 02443 5207 123 100 130 130 102 02279 0000000000
1919 2455N 08512W 02436 5202 120 098 132 132 100 02277 0000000000
1919. 2457N 08514W 02435 5195 115 097 130 130 098 02284 0000000000
1920 2459N 08517W 02443 5189 115 098 134 134 100 02297 0000000000
1920. 2459N 08519W 02436 5188 108 097 126 126 098 02291 0000000000
1921 2500N 08522W 02443 5185 105 100 126 126 103 02301 0000000000
1921. 2501N 08525W 02434 5176 103 104 128 128 106 02301 0000000000
1922 2502N 08527W 02440 5165 100 098 140 140 100 02318 0000000000
1922. 2502N 08530W 02441 5162 096 091 146 146 094 02322 0000000000
1923 2500N 08531W 02439 5170 092 087 138 138 090 02312 0000000000
1923. 2500N 08530W 02437 5182 096 081 144 144 085 02299 0000000000
1924 2500N 08529W 02434 5185 099 087 144 144 089 02292 0000000000
1924. 2500N 08527W 02438 5182 102 095 130 130 095 02299 0000000000
1925 2500N 08526W 02441 5183 101 095 134 134 096 02301 0000000000
1925. 2500N 08525W 02437 5186 101 094 132 132 095 02295 0000000000
1926 2500N 08524W 02437 5185 101 090 144 144 092 02295 0000000000
1926. 2459N 08523W 02442 5189 100 087 144 144 087 02296 0000000000

Missed some good ones from the AF, coming down from 114kts in NE eyewall

[StormsAhead]

I can't remember . . . SMRF?

Oh sorry...I just realized that I've been mixing up the letters typing...SFMR is what I should have written. Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer. NOAA aircrafts use it to estimate surface winds.