Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

[fasterdisaster]

The ERC is done...

[x-y-no]

18z makes more sense than 12z. No more stall. IMO the idea of it pulling a Mitch was a bit premature.

Track is very similar to the 12Z, thogh. And not one I like at all.

[n o o d l z]

Despite slowing slightly on the Yucatan, the GFS still takes it over South Florida.

[x-y-no]

108 hours ... over Miami.

[Brent]

I think it's too slow. 2am Monday???

[MiamiensisWx]

GFS continues to not weaken it much and take it over southern Florida as a strong system...

[x-y-no]

I have NEVER been a model "Hugger" until 24-36 hours before landfall. I look at the cone and only the cone.

When you are dealing with a slow moving cyclone, troughs, sharp turns it's an extremely tough forecast.

For all we know , the models might verify in the end and Wilma ends up making landfall in SW Florida.

Stay tuned.

I don't "hug" the models either. I do study their output, and in particular the trends in their output though.

[wxwonder12]

Local mets in Palm Beach are focusing on the great news that the models are changing and how it will affect the current track thinking.
Are they not realizing about the model run "error" or are they really that the current model runs are going to confirm??? ( the ones that changed anyway) any opinions

[Bgator]

GFS continues to not weaken it much and take it over southern Florida as a strong system...

This isnt looking good as i think model swill reverify again to FLa or near there!

[n o o d l z]

Local mets in Palm Beach are focusing on the great news that the models are changing and how it will affect the current track thinking.
Are they not realizing about the model run "error" or are they really that the current model runs are going to confirm??? ( the ones that changed anyway) any opinions

They must not be looking at the GFS too closely, as it still takes it over south Florida despite the big shift west.

[Scorpion]

Local mets in Palm Beach are focusing on the great news that the models are changing and how it will affect the current track thinking.
Are they not realizing about the model run "error" or are they really that the current model runs are going to confirm??? ( the ones that changed anyway) any opinions

I agree. The 18z GFS is not nearly as slow as 12z and brings it to S FL as a formidable system on Sunday.

[Canelaw99]

I appreciate the model graphics, x-y-no, but, um, I request a change in its direction please

[gatorcane]

It appears there may be a major track shifting coming....hopefully it will be good news.


AGREEMENT AMONG THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS...WHICH HAD BEEN VERY GOOD
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...HAS COMPLETELY COLLAPSED TODAY. THE
06Z RUNS OF THE GFS...GFDL...AND NOGAPS MODELS ACCELERATED WILMA
RAPIDLY TOWARD NEW ENGLAND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ALL THREE OF THESE
MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF OF THIS SOLUTION...WITH THE GFDL SHOWING AN
EXTREME CHANGE...WITH ITS 5-DAY POSITION SHIFTING A MERE 1650 NMI
FROM ITS PREVIOUS POSITION IN MAINE TO THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.
THERE IS ALMOST AS MUCH SPREAD IN THE 5-DAY POSITIONS OF THE 12Z
GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...WHICH RANGE FROM THE YUCATAN TO WELL EAST OF
THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. WHAT THIS ILLUSTRATES IS THE EXTREME
SENSITIVITY OF WILMA'S FUTURE TRACK TO ITS INTERACTION WITH THE
GREAT LAKES LOW. OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...WILMA HAS BEEN
MOVING SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OR SOUTH OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...AND
THE LEFT-MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS ARE NOW SHOWING WILMA
DELAYING OR MISSING THE CONNECTION WITH THE LOW. I HAVE SLOWED THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST JUST A LITTLE BIT AT THIS TIME...BUT IF WILMA
CONTINUES TO MOVE MORE TO THE LEFT THAN EXPECTED...SUBSTANTIAL
CHANGES TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAY HAVE TO BE MADE DOWN THE LINE.
NEEDLESS TO SAY...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK...ESPECIALLY THE
TIMING...HAS DECREASED CONSIDERABLY.

[floridahurricaneguy]

So do you think NHC wil abandon more of the stalling theory? Also what now can cause more north track into florida?

Matt

[wxwonder12]

It was mentioned the "very dependable GFDL model"

[x-y-no]

Keeping it offshore of the mid-Atlantic coast ... let's see if it impacts New England ...

[Brent]

That looks... messy.

[Bgator]

Keeping it offshore of the mid-Atlantic coast ... let's see if it impacts New England ...

When will the new GFDl come out?! I Know when the BaM's Do but anyone have a site for GFDL~!?

[Scorpion]

It appears there may be a major track shifting coming....hopefully it will be good news.


AGREEMENT AMONG THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS...WHICH HAD BEEN VERY GOOD
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...HAS COMPLETELY COLLAPSED TODAY. THE
06Z RUNS OF THE GFS...GFDL...AND NOGAPS MODELS ACCELERATED WILMA
RAPIDLY TOWARD NEW ENGLAND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ALL THREE OF THESE
MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF OF THIS SOLUTION...WITH THE GFDL SHOWING AN
EXTREME CHANGE...WITH ITS 5-DAY POSITION SHIFTING A MERE 1650 NMI
FROM ITS PREVIOUS POSITION IN MAINE TO THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.
THERE IS ALMOST AS MUCH SPREAD IN THE 5-DAY POSITIONS OF THE 12Z
GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...WHICH RANGE FROM THE YUCATAN TO WELL EAST OF
THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. WHAT THIS ILLUSTRATES IS THE EXTREME
SENSITIVITY OF WILMA'S FUTURE TRACK TO ITS INTERACTION WITH THE
GREAT LAKES LOW. OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...WILMA HAS BEEN
MOVING SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OR SOUTH OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...AND
THE LEFT-MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS ARE NOW SHOWING WILMA
DELAYING OR MISSING THE CONNECTION WITH THE LOW. I HAVE SLOWED THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST JUST A LITTLE BIT AT THIS TIME...BUT IF WILMA
CONTINUES TO MOVE MORE TO THE LEFT THAN EXPECTED...SUBSTANTIAL
CHANGES TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAY HAVE TO BE MADE DOWN THE LINE.
NEEDLESS TO SAY...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK...ESPECIALLY THE
TIMING...HAS DECREASED CONSIDERABLY.

It has been discussed that the GFS had a bad run.

[x-y-no]

It was mentioned the "very dependable GFDL model"

Yeah ... I wonder if the very dependable GFDL will flip back to the quick solution on the next run.