Hurricane Emily Advisories

[gkrangers]

People, why do we put so much time to prove someone wrong? If he doesn't want to go by "hard" data as he calls it, then so be it. Let him think what he wants as long as he doesn't enforce his view onto anyone else...

I find it entertaining.

I know I've been having fun today.

If I'm gonna sit here and refresh all day waiting for the most recent recon and advisories I've gotta have something to break the monotony.

[Scorpion]

Ignore me? I just said that no recon has supported 100 knot winds and everyone jumps on me. Im sorry ok. Back to the discussion please.

[cycloneye]

Ok I will lock this.

[cycloneye]

A new clean thread starting with the 8 PM Advisorie.

[cycloneye]

They are waiting to see if recon can inform a vortex in time for the advisory.It should come out in a few minutes.

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM AST THU JUL 14 2005

...MAJOR HURRICANE EMILY MOVING TOWARD THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...
GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUNTA SALINAS WESTWARD TO THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER... AND FOR THE ENTIRE SOUTHWESTERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER TO
PORT-AU-PRINCE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF
VENEZUELA FROM PEDERNALES WESTWARD TO PUNTO FIJO... INCLUDING ISLA
MARGARITA AND THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS NORTH OF THE COAST AND WEST OF
CUMANA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR BONAIRE... CURACAO...
AND ARUBA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 PM AST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 13.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 66.7 WEST OR ABOUT 415 MILES...
670 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC.

EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH... 32 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED ARE NEAR 115 MPH... 185 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. EMILY IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM...
FROM THE CENTER... AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 115 MILES... 185 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A UNITED STATES AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 962 MB... 28.41 INCHES.

EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES... AND 3 TO 6
INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 8 PM AST POSITION...13.3 N... 66.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...115 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 962 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM AST.

FORECASTER KNABB

[johngaltfla]

962?!?!?!!



And I keep telling myself it's only July.

God do I fear August and September..

[wxwatcher91]

but once again the Recon report hasnt come in yet... winds could be a LOT higher and pressure even lower... that 962.. wasnt that taken outside the eye

[canegrl04]

WOW

[abajan]

I think we can safely assume that it will soon be a CAT 4.

[gkrangers]

962 was probably from inside the eye. The NHC gets those reports realtime. They made a beeline for the center in order to get the new pressure.

[Hyperstorm]

The winds should now be near 110-115 kts due to the rapid pressure drop. I expect a SPECIAL UPDATE to come up sometime this evening when recon samples the NE quadrant, raising the maximum sustained winds, similar to yesterday evening.

[Hyperstorm]

but once again the Recon report hasnt come in yet... winds could be a LOT higher and pressure even lower... that 962.. wasnt that taken outside the eye

That is an actual recon report. The reports generally come out a few minutes earlier to the NHC and are available to the public soon thereafter.

[wxwatcher91]

the only problem with recon being late for some of the reports is that none of their obs are then documented if it comes in between... for instance recon reported 155 to 160mph (cat5) winds in Dennis before strikeing Cuba. but it wasnt documented in an advisory so the max wind speed holds at 150mph for Dennis

[HURAKAN]

Emily rapid development makes me remember of Ingrid this year.

[Swimdude]

the only problem with recon being late for some of the reports is that none of their obs are then documented if it comes in between... for instance recon reported 155 to 160mph (cat5) winds in Dennis before strikeing Cuba. but it wasnt documented in an advisory so the max wind speed holds at 150mph for Dennis

Which is incredibly annoying. I'm thinking Cindy could've easily been a hurricane, with that in mind.

[Hurricanehink]

Emily rapid development makes me remember of Ingrid this year.

Oh yea, Ingrid, that was a bad August storm in 2005.

[Brent]

Emily rapid development makes me remember of Ingrid this year.

Oh yea, Ingrid, that was a bad August storm in 2005.

Ingrid's turn is in 2007... replaced Iris 2001.

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST THU JUL 14 2005

...MAJOR HURRICANE EMILY GAINS MORE STRENGTH...

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS
ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND FOR ALL OF THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS.

AT 11 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF VENEZUELA HAS DISCONTINUED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING EAST OF CARACAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF VENEZUELA FROM CARACAS
WESTWARD TO PUNTO FIJO...INCLUDING THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS NORTH OF
THE COAST AND WEST OF CARACAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUNTA SALINAS
WESTWARD TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER...AND FOR THE
ENTIRE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR BONAIRE... CURACAO...
AND ARUBA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 13.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 67.5 WEST OR ABOUT 375
MILES... 600 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND ABOUT 690 MILES...1110 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH
...32 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

DATA FROM A UNITED STATES AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 125
MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EMILY IS A CATEGORY THREE
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE...AND EMILY COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 125 MILES...205 KM.

REPORTS FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IN EMILY HAS BEEN FALLING DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS. BASED ON THESE REPORTS...THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 957 MB...28.26 INCHES.

EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES. RAINFALL TOTALS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA...WITH
ISOLATED 8 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...13.6 N... 67.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...125 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 957 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM
AST.

FORECASTER KNABB

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

No ingrid was a south Pacific storm this March. It was one of the longest tracked systems ever.