Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

[Weatherfreak14]

Is the GFDL pretty accurate?

[wxcrazytwo]

:eek: Holy Crap!! :eek:

how many times have we seen this this year? alteast 21 I would say! lol

yeah and it is getting tiresome. There has to be more in her vocabulary...

[tracyswfla]

If the storm hits say where the nhc track shows will Sarasota feel any strong winds or will we not feel nothing.

Maybe a few squalls...

But the GFDL is pretty much overhead.

Brent what ya think about a Ft. Myers/Naples direct hit?

[Brent]

If the storm hits say where the nhc track shows will Sarasota feel any strong winds or will we not feel nothing.

Maybe a few squalls...

But the GFDL is pretty much overhead.

Brent what ya think about a Ft. Myers/Naples direct hit?

I just don't know. This turn is going to be hard to predict until it happens. That's going to be critical.

[SouthFloridawx]

Wilma appears to be moving a litte faster now to the NW.... what do you think?

[melhow]

Which model performs best when having to deal with predicting the strength of a trough?

[HURAKAN]

21/12/6 so far this year, soon to be 21/12/7?

So far we are 21/12/5 (Dennis, Emily, Katrina, Maria, & Rita)

Soon it will be 21/12/6 (Dennis, Emily, Katrina, Maria, Rita, & Wilma)

[caneman]

Looks like Charley's track. http://www.ecmwf.int/ Can't get direct link to work, but go to forcasts and choose N. A.

ECMWF and GFDL taking it around SARASOTA. I consider these 2 to be the best so far. This is a bit concerning for the Tampa Bay area

[stormandan28]

Gfdl will probably follow the other models on the next run.

[caneman]

Gfdl will probably follow the other models on the next run.

I disagree. Looking more and more like Sarasota to me.

[cjrciadt]

Potential excellent in the Channel, but poor at best closing in on FL.

[stormandan28]

Nhc must like the bam models there track seems to be close to them.

[DESTRUCTION5]

She's on the Move now....NW at at least 5 for the 11:00....

[Brent]

Potential excellent in the Channel, but poor at best closing in on FL.

I'm wondering if the fast motion might limit potential weakening. If this were going to be coming in much slower then I could see significant weakening, but not if it's flying NE.

[ronjon]

Gfdl will probably follow the other models on the next run.

Which models - the Euro - its already there. The other models like the BAM? What a joke?

[Noah]

stop saying sarasota!!!!!


all models are going south of that.. gfdl shows tampa..know your geographics

[stormandan28]

I was wondering faster motion now does that possibly mean further north track.

[Weatherfreak14]

I was wondering faster motion now does that possibly mean further north track.

I was wondering the same to?

[cjrciadt]

Potential excellent in the Channel, but poor at best closing in on FL.

I'm wondering if the fast motion might limit potential weakening. If this were going to be coming in much slower then I could see significant weakening, but not if it's flying NE.

Remember Frances, just about stopped before landfall and busted itself up for over a day and finally made landfall. However the models expect it to move rapidly like Charley so the GFDL scenario of staying a Cat3 thru FL may not seem so unlikely.

[ronjon]

Potential excellent in the Channel, but poor at best closing in on FL.

I'm wondering if the fast motion might limit potential weakening. If this were going to be coming in much slower then I could see significant weakening, but not if it's flying NE.

It will weaken somewhat due to 81-82 deg GOM water and shear starting on the system - but, the GFDL accelerates this storm to 12-18 mph on SAT morning. Not going to decrease much (i.e. like Charley) at that forward speed - potential for much inland wind damage with this one.