Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

[n o o d l z]

Why are these models doing this,how can their be so much bad data.

I don't understand this at all...it goes from a strong enough trough to pull a hurricane 90 degrees to the ENE, to not picking it up at all. It just doesn't add up.

[boca]

Why are these models doing this,how can their be so much bad data.

I don't understand this at all...it goes from a strong enough trough to pull a hurricane 90 degrees to the ENE, to not picking it up at all. It just doesn't add up.

I guess if their is bad data in one model it can effect at least some of them.This storm will not stall.

[thunderchief]

...it shows that wilma is likely right on the boundary between being picked up and not being picked up by the trough, and the model cannot yet tell which will occur.

[thunderchief]

...or when.

[boca]

Where is the trough now I believe its in the Rockies and supposed to dig southward.

[CronkPSU]

wow, this storm is the reason all of us love tracking the tropics...the computers can't even seem to agree where this thing goes

[deltadog03]

its the gfs

[curtadams]

00 GFS isn't bad data. It's a legit model, so it's a possible result. I'm not a meteorologist, but here's an interpretation. If Wilma is far enough north the trough picks her up and slings her east. It doesn't matter how far north as long as she'd far enough north. Hence the past strong agreement of the models - if she's roughly in a given area they're all going to predict the same motion. If she's south of that, the trough doesn't pick her up but it *influences* her. So her natural W motion combines with E trough influence to produce a stall. Similarly if the trough doesn't go quite as far south.

Hurricanes *do* stall in that area in October. Remember Mitch? And it's going to make a big difference to a hurricane's course whether it does or does not interact with a big trough. Neither a big shift nor a stall is inherently ridiculous.

[thunderchief]

the gfdl did the same thing 6 hours ago, and the GFDL is the best publicly disseminated model.

[fci]

[quote="artist"]this is from Derek's weblog in the Pensacola News Journal regarding the wobble that has been going on -

Dr Steve Lyons had a great explanation on TWC with a graphic of a large spoked wheel 30 miles wide with a small pinhole eye about 4 miles wide attached to a spoke near the top and how as the wheel turned the pinhole eye bounced up and down as it was attached to the spoke. Up 30 miles, down 30 miles etc..... The pinhole went up over 18 N and then down into the 17's and up again as the whole system moved WNW.

It made a lot of sense (probably a lot more sense than my explanation just made!).

[skysummit]

wxmann....is the "Nested Gridded Model" worth anything in the tropics? I never see it used. What is this model primarily for? Just wondering because its 00z is showing something totally different than all the other models.

[THead]

I have a question about wind shear. Lets say the direction of the shear is coming from the west, and the hurricane is moving to the east at the same speed. Does that negate the shear effect or is it more complicated than that, like everything else in meteorology?

Anyone?

[curtadams]

I have a question about wind shear. Lets say the direction of the shear is coming from the west, and the hurricane is moving to the east at the same speed. Does that negate the shear effect or is it more complicated than that, like everything else in meteorology?

Anyone?

It does *not* negate shear. Shear is a difference between upper-level and lower-level winds. A hurricane is just a collection of thunderstorms and they go where the winds blow. If there's shear the top and the bottom of the hurricane go in different directions and it gets stretched out or torn apart - regardless of the overall directions of the winds and the hurricane.

[Brent]

I have a question about wind shear. Lets say the direction of the shear is coming from the west, and the hurricane is moving to the east at the same speed. Does that negate the shear effect or is it more complicated than that, like everything else in meteorology?

Anyone?

Yes it would and that would spread the hurricane out to the east...

[mtm4319]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

At 0415z, the inner-inner eye finally looks to be collapsing fully.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The new outter eye is about 40 nmi. So the hurricane force winds will be about 5 times the size. In they will grow. That also gives it a chance to retighten that eye.

[CronkPSU]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html

At 0415z, the inner-inner eye finally looks to be collapsing fully.

just in time for recon to get there

[skysummit]

Here they are as they're spreading out a bit...including the all new NOGAPS.


http://img292.imageshack.us/img292/9856/al2420057hd.jpg

[gatorcane]

again tonight we are seeing some models (e.g. the NOGAPS) trying to bring it into Tampa - which I've been calling for several days now.

I don't think we'll see a 90 degree ENE bend. The GFS has suddenly forgout about that tonight and stalls Wilma over the Yucatan.

I don't trust the GFS on this one.

[wxmann_91]

wxmann....is the "Nested Gridded Model" worth anything in the tropics? I never see it used. What is this model primarily for? Just wondering because its 00z is showing something totally different than all the other models.

I don't think so, I've never heard of that model before.