Tropical Storm Ophelia

[skysummit]

Here's a GRLevel3 capture showing a weather station getting 77mph sustained winds gusting to 102mph.

How is radar measuring surface winds that far out from the radar location? The beam travels in a straight line, getting higher and higher above the surface with each mile traveled.

The radar is not measuring those surface winds. These are reports from buoys, weather stations on the ground, and ham operators.

[oneness]

Nope

--

000
WTNT61 KNHC 141546
TCUAT1
HURRICANE OPHELIA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1145 AM EDT WED SEP 14 2005

DURING THE PAST HALF-HOUR...STEPPED-FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER
SURFACE WIND DATA FROM A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS IN HURRICANE OPHELIA HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR
85 MPH.

FORECASTER STEWART

[skysummit]

Nope

--

000
WTNT61 KNHC 141546
TCUAT1
HURRICANE OPHELIA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1145 AM EDT WED SEP 14 2005

DURING THE PAST HALF-HOUR...STEPPED-FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER
SURFACE WIND DATA FROM A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS IN HURRICANE OPHELIA HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR
85 MPH.

FORECASTER STEWART

I'm confused....I believe he was talking about the 77mph winds that are in my radar image and I replied saying the radar is not picking those winds up, they're from weather stations on the ground. I know the 85mph winds are from recon.

[oneness]

Yeah, I see that now skysummit, sorry for the confusion.

[oneness]

[seahawkjd]

Question,

So far, is it trending more west then they thought it would or is it right on course? A local ems official who is a friend told me that the storm took a jog north around 10:30 am and that that would bring the stronger winds closer to our area, NE North Carolina.

[JtSmarts]

On this it does look she took a jog to the north.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[SouthFloridawx]

[huricanwatcher]

its more north of the forecast point on the satelite view

[Three Blind Mice]

Heads up Emerald Isle and Morehead City! "O" had more of a punch than we expected from a Cat 1 on the west side. Lots of branches down. Your area is Bullseye for landfall unless a turn to the NE happens soon. Take Care.............

[oceanguync]

I live at emerald isle--just had a gust over 55--the wind has really picked up and the rain is coming in sheets--the sound is really high and the ocean is at the low tide now and that is what a high tide should look like--the high tide around 5:15 should be relaly high--saw a few signs down--one by a motel at the pier--the next 7 hours should be interesting--just got back from a tour of the beach--the wind is really picking up

[bartman]

NWS at ILM had a faux pas this morning. Check it out. Maybe Ophelia was a blizzard. Nah, the temperature didn't qualify.

[feederband]

To bad she waited till now to show her Ogly self...Good luck NC....

[f5]

hurricane alex last year took the same track as Ophelia he was a cat 2 when he checked out the Cape Hatteras lighthouse

[Three Blind Mice]

OCguy, I won't want anymore than what we have had today! You guys might be in that NE Quad and could be quite ugly for a Cat 1. Amazing this storm looks better this afternoon.

About that snow..........I was driving in that area around 10 am this morning with 2 of my boys checking up on an elderly friend. Can't wait to rib them about not seeing the flakes!!!!!!!!!!

[wolfmmiii]

WTH?? UKMET.

What's up with the UKMET? Anybody know why it shows "O" coming back over my house in PA????

What does he see that the others don't, leaving him the odd-man out?

[DESTRUCTION5]

WTH?? UKMET.

What's up with the UKMET? Anybody know why it shows "O" coming back over my house in PA????

What does he see that the others don't, leaving him the odd-man out?

Puter Glitch..

[vbhoutex]

Latest radar and sat images look to be N to NNW(basically wobbling N). Ophelia is very close to becoming an "officially" landfalling hurricane unless she makes a hard right turn up the coast. I do not envy any of you people in Eastern NC, NE SC, and SE VA. It lloks to be a very long and very messy day for you guys, which is probably a gross understatement on my part. Hang on and be safe!!!

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE OPHELIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 34A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2005

...OPHELIA CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO
THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM LITTLE RIVER INLET TO THE
NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND
ALBEMARLE SOUNDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE IN EFFECT NORTH
OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT
VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF LITTLE
RIVER INLET TO NORTH OF THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. THIS WARNING WILL
LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 36 HR. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF THE LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE
OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 77.4 WEST
OR ABOUT 40 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT
70 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA.

OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TODAY. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR BY TONIGHT. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF OPHELIA IS FORECAST
TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THURSDAY ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF NORTH
CAROLINA NEAR CAPE LOOKOUT. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN EYEWALL WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT... AND OVER THE OUTER BANKS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

DATA FROM AN NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND NOAA LAND-BASED
DOPPLER RADARS INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE LANDFALL OCCURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE CONTINUING ALONG
THE SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA COAST FROM NEAR THE NORTH
CAROLINA/SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER NORTHEASTWARD TO CAPE LOOKOUT.
DURING THE PAST HOUR...A NOAA REPORTING STATION AT WRIGHTVILLE
BEACH NORTH CAROLINA RECORDED 6-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND SPEED OF 68 MPH
WITH A GUST TO 77 MPH...WHILE NOAA BUOY 41013 LOCATED IN THE
SOUTHERN EYEWALL REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 59 MPH WITH A GUST TO
78 MPH.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY A NOAA
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES.

MAXIMUM COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN
BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. A STORM SURGE OF 9 TO 11
FEET IS POSSIBLE AT THE HEADS OF BAYS AND RIVERS.

OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES OVER EXTREME NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA...WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES
POSSIBLE OVER COASTAL SECTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS OF NORTH
CAROLINA TODAY.

REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...33.9 N... 77.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 979 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

[oneness]

She is getting her act together now, the outflow and eye are quite impressive.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/rgb-loop.html

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/mhx_N0Z_lp.shtml