Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

[CronkPSU]

It looks like a N tug in the last frame! Doesn't look like Wilma is moving to fast. Storm has a N/S elongation, slowed, and a N tug hint in the last frame, I'll bet the NW turn is going to begin this afternoon.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

for as much as they claim low confidence with thsi storm, if it does start going NW, they have had the track nailed so far IMHO

[seahawkjd]

Lets just hope the NGPI doesn't play out lol, sheesh.

[seahawkjd]

Lets just hope the NGPI doesn't play out lol, sheesh.

[gtalum]

Imagine this track.

[Brent]

Imagine this track.

UGH...

No thanks.

[jax]

why is it so quiet here....

[boca]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

It's starting to turn more NW rather than WNW, but who knows could be the famous wobble.

[Brent]

why is it so quiet here....

I'm tired of this storm.

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILMA ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM CDT THU OCT 20 2005

...HURRICANE WARNING EXTENDED SOUTHWARD ON THE YUCATAN...

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE
HURRICANE WARNING SOUTHWARD TO CHETUMAL. A HURRICANE WARNING IS
NOW IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO CHETUMAL ON THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS. A HURRICANE
WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR SWAN ISLAND.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM
WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO CELESTUN.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BELIZE FROM THE
BORDER WITH MEXICO SOUTHWARD TO BELIZE CITY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA
HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF
YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE
PROVINCES OF MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE
ISLE OF YOUTH.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 85.5 WEST OR ABOUT 170
MILES... 275 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH ...11 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME RE-STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 260 MILES...415 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 915 MB...27.02 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7-10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL ON
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 20 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH
SATURDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 40 INCHES POSSIBLE...
PARTICULARY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN IN WESTERN CUBA.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SWAN
ISLAND...AND PORTIONS OF HONDURAS THROUGH FRIDAY.

REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION...18.4 N... 85.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...145 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 915 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 PM CDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[cjrciadt]

Lets just hope the NGPI doesn't play out lol, sheesh.

It would effect me, you, and NYC very ugly.

[Brent]

HURRICANE WILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL242005
1500Z THU OCT 20 2005

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE
HURRICANE WARNING SOUTHWARD TO CHETUMAL. A HURRICANE WARNING IS
NOW IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO CHETUMAL ON THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS. A HURRICANE
WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR SWAN ISLAND.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM
WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO CELESTUN.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BELIZE FROM THE
BORDER WITH MEXICO SOUTHWARD TO BELIZE CITY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA
HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF
YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE
PROVINCES OF MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE
ISLE OF YOUTH.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 85.5W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 915 MB
EYE DIAMETER 35 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 155 KT.
64 KT....... 80NE 75SE 45SW 75NW.
50 KT.......110NE 85SE 60SW 110NW.
34 KT.......225NE 150SE 110SW 225NW.
12 FT SEAS..275NE 275SE 150SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 85.5W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 85.2W

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 19.1N 86.2W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 80NE 75SE 45SW 75NW.
50 KT...110NE 85SE 60SW 110NW.
34 KT...225NE 150SE 110SW 225NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.3N 86.9W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 75NE 75SE 45SW 75NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 100NW.
34 KT...200NE 150SE 90SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 21.2N 87.0W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 100NW.
34 KT...200NE 150SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 22.0N 86.2W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 90NW.
34 KT...200NE 175SE 90SW 175NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 24.0N 84.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 75NW.
34 KT...175NE 175SE 90SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 28.5N 78.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 40.0N 68.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 85.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Bocadude85]

Wilmas convection is being pulled towards the north now..... turn to the north in the process?

[Brent]

[cycloneye]

11 AM Advisorie track.

[Agua]

Watching the RSO floater, it appears to have barely moved over the last two hours.

[Myersgirl]

Is the NHC forecast track to the left of most of the guidance and why?

[skysummit]

Is the NHC forecast track to the left of most of the guidance and why?

It looks like they're splitting the difference between the UKMET, NOGAPS and the GFDL, GFS.

[CronkPSU]

Is the NHC forecast track to the left of most of the guidance and why?

i think they are hedging their bets that the turn won't be as sharp as the models say

[Myersgirl]

thank you Sky

[BonesXL]

If its starts turning now would that be sooner than anticipated? Would Wilma take the more southerly path to the NE? Stay tune for these and other questions in our continuing drama....