Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

[Weatherfreak14]

Can the LBAR be any accurate. It shows a tampa landfall.

[DESTRUCTION5]

http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/picservice.asp?t=m&m=24

12z GFDL at graphic in dark blue line.It tracks almost with the nhc one.

Thats a 6 Z again no?

[skysummit]

Definite north component.

Right...it's been having a north component for the past few days now. It has not YET turned NW though.

[Ivanhater]

Definite north component.

you getting fooled by the clouds moving around the eye making its way around the north side of the eye, it is still on a wnw course as derek said

[LanceW]

http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/picservice.asp?t=m&m=24

12z GFDL at graphic in dark blue line.It tracks almost with the nhc one.

Does it show a stall like the GFS?

[skysummit]

Definite north component.

you getting fooled by the clouds moving around the eye making its way around the north side of the eye, it is still on a wnw course as derek said

Thank you IH.

[feederband]

Jeb on TV ...SOE in fl now..

[stormie]

Can the LBAR be any accurate. It shows a tampa landfall.

My understanding, from what I've learned at Storm2K , is that the LBAR is not all that meaningful with hurricane forecast track predictions...I generally ignore it myself...

[shawn67]

http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/picservice.asp?t=m&m=24

12z GFDL at graphic in dark blue line.It tracks almost with the nhc one.

Looking at those model runs (if we have confidence in the GFDL) we are talking only a glancing blow with the Yucatan which in all likelyhood would not significantly weaken the hurricane.

Shawn

[Weatherfreak14]

ok thanks. Just checkin.

[AZS]

The 06Z GFDL puts WILMA as a CAT4 hitting the Yucatan.
The problem is that GFDL is making WILMA a CAT 3 into Florida, after decreasing to a CAT 2 in the Yucatan

Let´s see what 12Z GFDL says......

[nequad]

That is not the 12Z GFDL.

0Z GFDL comes at around 1:30 AM

6Z around 7:30 AM

12Z 1:30 PM

18Z 7:30 PM

[thefixed]

That is not the 12Z GFDL.

0Z GFDL comes at around 1:30 AM

6Z around 7:30 AM

12Z 1:30 PM

18Z 7:30 PM

correct me if i'm wrong but isn't 12Z 8AM Eastern? (and all the others)

[SkeetoBite]

That is not the 12Z GFDL.

0Z GFDL comes at around 1:30 AM

6Z around 7:30 AM

12Z 1:30 PM

18Z 7:30 PM

yep, it's the 12Z - we got it early...

000

WHXX01 KWBC 201209

CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

HURRICANE WILMA (AL242005) ON 20051020 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051020 1200 051021 0000 051021 1200 051022 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.3N 85.2W 19.4N 86.5W 20.5N 87.7W 21.0N 88.3W
BAMM 18.3N 85.2W 19.4N 86.7W 20.1N 87.8W 20.4N 88.3W
A98E 18.3N 85.2W 18.9N 86.2W 19.9N 87.0W 20.7N 87.7W
LBAR 18.3N 85.2W 19.5N 86.3W 21.1N 87.1W 23.1N 87.1W
SHIP 125KTS 125KTS 129KTS 133KTS
DSHP 125KTS 125KTS 129KTS 133KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051022 1200 051023 1200 051024 1200 051025 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 20.8N 88.4W 19.7N 87.8W 19.1N 85.7W 22.2N 80.8W
BAMM 20.1N 87.6W 21.2N 85.2W 24.7N 81.1W 34.9N 70.2W
A98E 20.9N 88.1W 22.8N 88.0W 22.1N 86.4W 24.0N 81.0W
LBAR 25.5N 85.9W 33.0N 76.7W 39.7N 56.8W .0N .0W
SHIP 131KTS 111KTS 81KTS 48KTS
DSHP 131KTS 111KTS 71KTS 38KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.3N LONCUR = 85.2W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 18.0N LONM12 = 84.0W DIRM12 = 298DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 17.3N LONM24 = 82.8W
WNDCUR = 125KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 135KT
CENPRS = 910MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 250NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 150NM RD34SE = 150NM RD34SW = 110NM RD34NW = 150NM

[Air Force Met]

Pro Mets.....

If she misses this trough ALL TOGETHER, wouldn't high pressure build in behind the front and force her to continue West around the High, or even WSW?

It won't miss it. It might be delayed...but the trof is a longwave and models do really well with longwaves. What is in question is the ridging. The ridge won't build back in and force a west movement into the western GOM. It will eventually get moved to the NE. Just a matter of when.

[cycloneye]

Thanks skeetobite for confirming what I posted about the 12z GFDL which is the 12z run at graphic.

[skysummit]

Pro Mets.....

If she misses this trough ALL TOGETHER, wouldn't high pressure build in behind the front and force her to continue West around the High, or even WSW?

It won't miss it. It might be delayed...but the trof is a longwave and models do really well with longwaves. What is in question is the ridging. The ridge won't build back in and force a west movement into the western GOM. It will eventually get moved to the NE. Just a matter of when.

Okie doke. Thanks AFM for the explanation!

[caneman]

Pro Mets.....

If she misses this trough ALL TOGETHER, wouldn't high pressure build in behind the front and force her to continue West around the High, or even WSW?

It won't miss it. It might be delayed...but the trof is a longwave and models do really well with longwaves. What is in question is the ridging. The ridge won't build back in and force a west movement into the western GOM. It will eventually get moved to the NE. Just a matter of when.

Would this make the track even more uncertain? Still Tampa to Keys?

[nequad]

12Z GFDL not out yet...seems like all the 12Z guidance has been running late today.



Here is the 96 and 120 hour NGP...

[SkeetoBite]

Thanks skeetobite for confirming what I posted about the 12z GFDL which is the 12z run at graphic.

No problem. We had it about 34 minutes early, which is extremely rare. We're usually 15 minutes early or so with all the data/maps, but nowhere near as early as wunderground (yet - NOAAPORT system is out for bid)