Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

[cmdebbie]

"I don't think Faux News has any credibility whatsoever. Sorry."

Out of curiosity, who do you think has credibility? All day you have been knocking what others do or say. I realize that this is a stressful time; however, perhaps you could take your frustrations out somewhere else.

[cjrciadt]

[cjrciadt]

Latest Windfield

[truballer#1]

shows shear decreasing

[CHRISTY]

my god what big area of strong winds....

[Brent]

HURRICANE WILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL242005
2100Z THU OCT 20 2005

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO CHETUMAL ON
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS. A
HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR SWAN ISLAND.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM
WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO CELESTUN.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BELIZE FROM THE
BORDER WITH MEXICO SOUTHWARD TO BELIZE CITY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA
HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF
YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE
PROVINCES OF MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE
ISLE OF YOUTH.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 85.7W AT 20/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 918 MB
EYE DIAMETER 35 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT.
64 KT....... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.
50 KT.......110NE 90SE 75SW 110NW.
34 KT.......175NE 150SE 120SW 175NW.
12 FT SEAS..275NE 300SE 150SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 85.7W AT 20/2100Z
AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 85.5W

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 19.5N 86.4W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.
50 KT...110NE 90SE 75SW 110NW.
34 KT...175NE 150SE 120SW 175NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 20.4N 87.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT.
64 KT... 75NE 75SE 40SW 75NW.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 100NW.
34 KT...175NE 150SE 90SW 175NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 21.1N 87.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 75NE 75SE 30SW 75NW.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 100NW.
34 KT...175NE 150SE 90SW 175NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 22.0N 87.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 40SW 75NW.
34 KT...150NE 125SE 75SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 23.5N 84.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE 75SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 27.5N 79.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 38.0N 70.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N 85.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[jkt21787]

New forecast shows much slower FL landfall and only as a cat 2. Good news there. Not good news...Cat 5 predicted for Yucatan landfall.

[skysummit]

Back up to 150mph!

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... _5day.html

[Josephine96]

Great.. It's approaching a 5 again.. Brilliant

[Josephine96]

Great.. It's approaching a 5 again.. Brilliant

[cjrciadt]

A more simple way to see the windfield. Cat 1>winds almost match Katrina in size, crazy!!!!1

[jkt21787]

The discussion reads off as a blessing for FL, Thank God. But it reads off as a nightmare for Cancun and the Yucatan.

[vacanechaser]

5pm discussion

WTNT44 KNHC 202031
TCDAT4
HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU OCT 20 2005

WILMA HAS TURNED NORTHWESTWARD...310/5...BUT THIS IS NOT NECESSARILY
THE BEGINNINGS OF RECURVATURE. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IN THE
WESTERLIES...THE OLD LOW FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA...WILL MOVE PAST THE
LONGITUDE OF THE HURRICANE BY TOMORROW MORNING...AND THE TRACK
MODELS SHOW A SLIGHT BEND BACK TO THE LEFT AS A LITTLE RIDGING
BUILDS IN BEHIND IT. IN FACT...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOW
SUGGESTING THAT IT MAY TAKE THREE SHORT WAVES TO LIFT WILMA OUT OF
THE YUCATAN. THE GFDL DID ANOTHER BIG SHIFT WITH ITS 5-DAY
FORECAST...FROM CANADA AT 6Z TO CUBA AT 12Z. THERE IS LESS SPREAD
IN THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THIS TIME...HOWEVER...LENDING A LITTLE
MORE CREDENCE TO A SLOWER TRACK. THE 12Z MODELS ALSO HAD THE
BENEFIT OF DROPWINDSONDE DATA FROM THE NOAA GULFSTREAM JET. THE
NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT IS
STILL VERY MUCH FASTER THAN ALL OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. THIS
IMPLIES THAT THE IMPACT TO FLORIDA COULD WELL BE LATER THAN
INDICATED HERE.

THERE IS VERY LITTLE LEFT OF THE INNER EYEWALL...AND REPORTS FROM A
NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT WILMA IS BEGINNING TO
RESTRENGTHEN. PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS WERE 145 KT...AND THE SFMR
INSTRUMENT ONBOARD MEASURED A SURFACE WIND OF 125 KT IN THE NORTH
EYEWALL. BASED ON THESE OBSERVATIONS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
SET AT 130 KT. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN REMAINS STRONG AND
WILMA WILL HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO REGAIN CATEGORY FIVE STATUS
BEFORE IT REACHES THE YUCATAN...AND THE IMPACTS THERE COULD BE
CATASTROPHIC. WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF A MORE EXTENDED INTERACTION
WITH THE YUCATAN INCREASING...SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE
BEFORE WILMA TURNS TOWARD FLORIDA. IN ADDITION...THE LONGER WILMA
LINGERS BEFORE TURNING NORTHEASTWARD...THE MORE HOSTILE THE
ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME FOR STRENGTHENING OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/2100Z 18.9N 85.7W 130 KT
12HR VT 21/0600Z 19.5N 86.4W 140 KT
24HR VT 21/1800Z 20.4N 87.0W 145 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 22/0600Z 21.1N 87.2W 120 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 22/1800Z 22.0N 87.0W 100 KT
72HR VT 23/1800Z 23.5N 84.5W 95 KT
96HR VT 24/1800Z 27.5N 79.5W 65 KT
120HR VT 25/1800Z 38.0N 70.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILMA ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM CDT THU OCT 20 2005

...WILMA A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT APPROACHES THE YUCATAN...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO CHETUMAL ON
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS. A
HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR SWAN ISLAND.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM
WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO CELESTUN.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BELIZE FROM THE
BORDER WITH MEXICO SOUTHWARD TO BELIZE CITY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA
HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF
YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE
PROVINCES OF MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE
ISLE OF YOUTH.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 85.7 WEST OR ABOUT 135 MILES...
220 KM... SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH... 9 KM/HR... AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF WILMA WILL BE VERY NEAR THE
COASTLINE OF THE YUCATAN BY MIDDAY TOMORROW. HOWEVER...WILMA HAS A
LARGE CIRCULATION AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL BE FELT WELL BEFORE
THE ARRIVAL OF THE CENTER.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND WILMA COULD REGAIN CATEGORY FIVE STRENGTH AS IT
APPROACHES THE YUCATAN TONIGHT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 200 MILES...325 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A NOAA AIRCRAFT WASS 918
MB...27.11 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7-11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL ON
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 20 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH
SATURDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 40 INCHES POSSIBLE...
PARTICULARY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN IN WESTERN CUBA.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SWAN
ISLAND...AND PORTIONS OF HONDURAS THROUGH FRIDAY.

REPEATING THE 4 PM CDT POSITION...18.9 N... 85.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...150 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 918 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 PM CDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Damar91]

Just one question, how is the likelyhood of interaction with Mexico more likely, when the storm has started to take the turn that was expected all along?

[DESTRUCTION5]

The discussion reads off as a blessing for FL, Thank God. But it reads off as a nightmare for Cancun and the Yucatan.

Where you get Disc?

[Brent]

Just one question, how is the likelyhood of interaction with Mexico more likely, when the storm has started to take the turn that was expected all along?

Moving slowly near the coast... that would put a lot of the circulation over land.

[Damar91]

The disscusion says that the likelihood of interaction with Mexico is more likely, how can that be when the N-NNW turn they have been expecting has occured?

[vacanechaser]

Just one question, how is the likelyhood of interaction with Mexico more likely, when the storm has started to take the turn that was expected all along?

It may not be enough of a turn and the models are showing a possible stall or very slow move as it hits the Yucatan... As he mentioned, the 12z models have the G IV data so that should help with the forecast... I think we will know much more as the 0z runs start later tonight...


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Stratosphere747]

The discussion reads off as a blessing for FL, Thank God. But it reads off as a nightmare for Cancun and the Yucatan.

That is a understatement...

If this track and motion verifies.....

Sometimes we throw around statements that are overblown and exaggerated, but this has the potential to literally be "hell" on earth for those in the Cancun/Cozumel area. Truly something that few will be able to stomach.