Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

[tracyswfla]

Can we pretty much almost guarantee a Florida hit at this point? The models have been consistent for 2 days now. I know there are no guarantees in weather forecasting. But I think we should start thinking about what we are going to do to protect our families and property.

A Florida hit was guaranteed the day this system formed!

Ok, ok.... but rather than freak out... I was living in fantasy Island.

[Brent]

HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE OCT 18 2005

WILMA IS BEING UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE BASED ON SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS OF T4.0 FROM ALL AGENCIES...AND OBJECTIVE T NUMBERS
FROM UW/CIMSS OF T4.5 SINCE 09Z. ANOTHER RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO BE IN THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON. COLD CONVECTION IS
BEING MAINTAINED OVER THE CENTER...AND STRONG UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW
CHANNELS CONTINUE TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER.
OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT AHEAD OF WILMA IS HIGH. THE ONLY INHIBITING
FACTOR IS THE DRY AIR MASS IN THE GULF AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN...BUT THE LARGE AND GROWING CIRCULATION OF WILMA SHOULD
BE ABLE TO KEEP MUCH OF THIS AIR FROM REACHING THE CORE. A HIGH
LIKELIHOOD OF RAPID STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS RAPID
INTENSIFICATION INDEX...AND IT IS LIKELY THAT WILMA WILL BE A MAJOR
HURRICANE WHEN IT ENTERS THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. AS WILMA
ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...WIND SHEAR
IS FORECAST TO INCREASE...BUT THERE MAY NOT BE ENOUGH OF IT TO
WEAKEN WILMA VERY QUICKLY. HOWEVER...IT IS WORTH REMEMBERING THAT
THERE IS LITTLE SKILL IN LONG-RANGE INTENSITY FORECASTS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 320/5. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE
CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST THINKING. THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW
THAT HAD BEEN OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST IS NOW MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD...AND AS IT PROGRESSES HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN...ALLOWING WILMA TO MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND ENTER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN
ABOUT THREE DAYS. ONCE WILMA MOVES NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AXIS AND ENCOUNTERS MID-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW...AN ACCELERATION
NORTHEASTWARD IS EXPECTED. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH AND
REMAINS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS.

WILMA...THE 12TH HURRICANE OF THE SEASON...TIES THE RECORD FOR MOST
HURRICANES IN A SEASON SET IN 1969.


FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/1500Z 16.5N 80.6W 65 KT
12HR VT 19/0000Z 17.0N 81.2W 75 KT
24HR VT 19/1200Z 17.7N 82.3W 90 KT
36HR VT 20/0000Z 18.5N 83.5W 100 KT
48HR VT 20/1200Z 19.6N 84.5W 105 KT
72HR VT 21/1200Z 22.0N 85.5W 105 KT
96HR VT 22/1200Z 24.0N 84.0W 100 KT
120HR VT 23/1200Z 28.5N 78.5W 75 KT

[Noah]

Can we pretty much almost guarantee a Florida hit at this point? The models have been consistent for 2 days now. I know there are no guarantees in weather forecasting. But I think we should start thinking about what we are going to do to protect our families and property.

Tracy, im going to a friends house in port charlotte whos home withstood charley, me hubby and the 3 cats..when i will go depends, but im moving all my stuff away from my windows in my condo in a few days depending on this track. Im nervous as heck.

[caneman]

Can we pretty much almost guarantee a Florida hit at this point? The models have been consistent for 2 days now. I know there are no guarantees in weather forecasting. But I think we should start thinking about what we are going to do to protect our families and property.

Its time...

Which city has to pay the Piper?

[tracyswfla]

Can we pretty much almost guarantee a Florida hit at this point? The models have been consistent for 2 days now. I know there are no guarantees in weather forecasting. But I think we should start thinking about what we are going to do to protect our families and property.

Tracy, im going to a friends house in port charlotte whos home withstood charley, me hubby and the 3 cats..when i will go depends, but im moving all my stuff away from my windows in my condo in a few days depending on this track. Im nervous as heck.

Are you sure about PC?

[tracyswfla]

Can we pretty much almost guarantee a Florida hit at this point? The models have been consistent for 2 days now. I know there are no guarantees in weather forecasting. But I think we should start thinking about what we are going to do to protect our families and property.

Its time...

Which city has to pay the Piper?

I have no idea..... I asked the magic 8 ball on my desk if Lee County would get the eye and the magic 8 ball said: "As I see it, yes." So... you know the magic eight ball is never wrong.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Can we pretty much almost guarantee a Florida hit at this point? The models have been consistent for 2 days now. I know there are no guarantees in weather forecasting. But I think we should start thinking about what we are going to do to protect our families and property.

Its time...

Which city has to pay the Piper?

From SRQ south...There is no Particular city...Moving at 20 MPH There will be no time for decrease in Intensity...This will put a hurting on the Whole SFL Penn...

[Noah]

Can we pretty much almost guarantee a Florida hit at this point? The models have been consistent for 2 days now. I know there are no guarantees in weather forecasting. But I think we should start thinking about what we are going to do to protect our families and property.

Tracy, im going to a friends house in port charlotte whos home withstood charley, me hubby and the 3 cats..when i will go depends, but im moving all my stuff away from my windows in my condo in a few days depending on this track. Im nervous as heck.

Are you sure about PC?

I dont want to stay in sarasota i a condo i dont know how it will do, im upstairs and not in an evac zone. But my friends house when through charley, i will feel safer there.

[Weatherfreak14]

At 11am advisory, it looks that the NHC track has shifted a bit more north.

[Dean4Storms]

Everybody keep in mind that the forecasted landfall this far out can be off well over 200+ miles. The models had Rita headed for South TX. 5-6 days out.

Alot will depend on the movement to the NW and how far that motion carries Wilma into the Gulf before and if the trough picks her up.

[WeatherEmperor]

The forecast track looks very good to me. But I mostly keep in mind that storms like this curve a little bit earlier then forecast. Irene in 1999 did that as well as Charley last year. So you can bet Im gonna prepare here as if it will turn just a little bit earlier.

<RICKY>

[jlauderdal]

Can we pretty much almost guarantee a Florida hit at this point? The models have been consistent for 2 days now. I know there are no guarantees in weather forecasting. But I think we should start thinking about what we are going to do to protect our families and property.

Its time...

Which city has to pay the Piper?

sarasota

[seaswing]

Everybody keep in mind that the forecasted landfall this far out can be off well over 200+ miles. The models had Rita headed for South TX. 5-6 days out.

Alot will depend on the movement to the NW and how far that motion carries Wilma into the Gulf before and if the trough picks her up.

No doubt...I totally agree. Time to prepare but don't freak just yet. Ya know, there are many people around my office today who are totally oblivious to the fact that a hurricane has formed and is heading towards Florida.

[caneman]

Can we pretty much almost guarantee a Florida hit at this point? The models have been consistent for 2 days now. I know there are no guarantees in weather forecasting. But I think we should start thinking about what we are going to do to protect our families and property.

Its time...

Which city has to pay the Piper?

sarasota

I agree. And with this new faster motion I think so even more now. I do believe it was to drift for another 24 hours or so. And moving at 6 or 7 mph gives it a chance to go further North. time will tell.

[Brent]

Landfall at Naples:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/ ... 46W_sm.gif

[El Nino]

If shear is not that high, possibility of a cat4 borderline. I could see that NHC is still putting higher and higher windspeed. First, 90 then 95, 100, and now 105. Just need 10 more to have a cat4.

[cjrciadt]

no updated wind prob yet.

[Noah]

Landfall at Naples:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/ ... 46W_sm.gif

Then why are they saying sarasota..i saw on here on 11am advisories said it shifted farther north, then some say south?? NHC loooks like to me its under sarasota.

[SouthFloridawx]

that map does not show a sarasota landfall...

[caneman]

Goodness folks not time to panic. I believe anywhere from Tampa to Naples and it's all just speculation right now.