Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

[nequad]

Back on track if we can...the 18Z GFDL...


766
WHXX04 KWBC 202327
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

HURRICANE WILMA 24L

INITIAL TIME 18Z OCT 20

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 18.6 85.5 305./ 5.0
6 19.0 86.0 304./ 6.2
12 19.5 86.6 314./ 7.0
18 19.9 87.0 311./ 5.9
24 20.1 87.3 317./ 3.8
30 20.4 87.6 313./ 4.0
36 20.4 87.8 255./ 2.5
42 20.5 87.9 351./ 1.3
48 20.7 88.1 311./ 2.7
54 20.8 88.2 315./ 1.8
60 20.6 88.3 196./ 2.5
66 20.8 88.0 42./ 3.5
72 21.1 88.1 340./ 2.9
78 21.1 87.7 85./ 4.1
84 21.4 87.3 58./ 4.7
90 21.6 86.9 68./ 4.0
96 21.9 86.3 57./ 6.1
102 22.1 85.3 77./ 9.4
108 22.6 84.4 64./10.4
114 23.6 83.2 51./14.4
120 25.0 81.9 43./18.1
126 27.1 80.6 32./24.1

[/quote]

[truballer#1]

[joseph01]

Striking New Orleans is a possibility, too. I guess I have a different standard for the discussions here. I like to see them backed with facts, otherwise what's the point? Isn't it instructive to point out that no two tracks are truly identical, and why? It's really a shame that this kind of request for intelligent discussion is viewed as spoiling someone's fun and that people are attacked for asking for this kind of reasoning.

I enjoy posts such as tampaflwx made. It is a learning experience. Common sense should tell most people that it will not take the exact path. Not all of us know what similar storms have done in the past. You make people feel intimidated to post things they think is important, or a good learning experience. Keep it to yourself, not all of us think as you do, if there was a problem with his posts I think the mods would handle it.

I disagree. It would be a better learning experience if he explained how the two storms were similar or different other than the fact that they took the same track. I don't think this was an informative post at all. You know very well that you can't just take two tracks and say that X could happen because Y storm took a similar track on a similar date. Some new person here who doesn't know anything about storms might see this and get upset without someone else pointing out why the two storms are different.

I'm sorry, but you guys are piling on me now, and it's not appreciated. I am all for having fun but I think there are a lot of people here who post stuff that really need to be a little more personally responsible about what they post when a dangerous storm is bearing down on populated areas.

I would like to respond, but I fear the mods, like I fear God. They can rain down fire and brimstone on an individual poster. I don't want to taunt them.

[truballer#1]

purple just exploded all around the storm!

[ericinmia]

Wow, the 18z gfdl based on looking at those cords.... would RAKE south floridas metro area's!

I am about 25.9 and 80.1 or so? that would be very not good... lol
-Eric

[Bgator]

I have a feeling the 00z models will be different due to the fact it is movin more NW now than at 18z(2pm)...We'll have to see theyve been changing and i love how yesterday people were freaking for a cat 3 in Fla now a maybe cat 1 in FLA! LOL just wait by Friday night we shuld know!
Anyone agree?

[calculatedrisk]

...
NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

HURRICANE WILMA 24L
...
INITIAL TIME 18Z OCT 20
FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 18.6 85.5 305./ 5.0
6 19.0 86.0 304./ 6.2
12 19.5 86.6 314./ 7.0
18 19.9 87.0 311./ 5.9
24 20.1 87.3 317./ 3.8
30 20.4 87.6 313./ 4.0
36 20.4 87.8 255./ 2.5
42 20.5 87.9 351./ 1.3
48 20.7 88.1 311./ 2.7
54 20.8 88.2 315./ 1.8
60 20.6 88.3 196./ 2.5
66 20.8 88.0 42./ 3.5
72 21.1 88.1 340./ 2.9
78 21.1 87.7 85./ 4.1
84 21.4 87.3 58./ 4.7
90 21.6 86.9 68./ 4.0
96 21.9 86.3 57./ 6.1
102 22.1 85.3 77./ 9.4
108 22.6 84.4 64./10.4
114 23.6 83.2 51./14.4
120 25.0 81.9 43./18.1
126 27.1 80.6 32./24.1

Not AS much of a stall in that run.

[Recurve]

Good point. Brimstone hurts, especially flaming brimstone.

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 22A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
7 PM CDT THU OCT 20 2005

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS WILMA MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD
COZUMEL AND THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO CHETUMAL ON
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS. A
HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR SWAN ISLAND.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM
WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO CELESTUN.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BELIZE FROM THE
BORDER WITH MEXICO SOUTHWARD TO BELIZE CITY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA
HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF
YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE
PROVINCES OF MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE
ISLE OF YOUTH.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 7 PM CDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 85.9 WEST OR ABOUT 120 MILES...
195 KM... SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH... 8 KM/HR... AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF WILMA WILL BE VERY NEAR THE
COASTLINE OF THE YUCATAN BY MIDDAY TOMORROW. HOWEVER...WILMA HAS A
LARGE CIRCULATION AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL BE FELT WELL BEFORE
THE ARRIVAL OF THE CENTER.

REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND WILMA COULD REGAIN CATEGORY FIVE STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES THE
YUCATAN TONIGHT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 200 MILES...325 KM. NOAA BUOY 42056 RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 69 MPH... 111 KM/HR...WITH A GUST TO 81 MPH... 130 KM/HR.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE NOAA AIRCRAFT WAS
923 MB...27.26 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7-11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL ON
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 20 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH
SATURDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 40 INCHES POSSIBLE...
PARTICULARLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN IN WESTERN CUBA.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SWAN
ISLAND...AND PORTIONS OF HONDURAS THROUGH FRIDAY.

REPEATING THE 7 PM CDT POSITION...19.1 N... 85.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...150 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 923 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 10 PM CDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN

[Brent]

Are the indications that it will make it this far south?

What is "this far south"? It's going to make it here... we're expecting upper 30's/near 60 by Monday.

[Derek Ortt]

there is only a 3 day stall over the Yucatan in the GFDL with 2 loops

[Thunder44]

purple just exploded all around the storm!

That's what usually happens on the Shortwave IR-2 imagery, when the sun goes down. It doesn't mean the cloud tops are getting colder.

[skysummit]

there is only a 3 day stall over the Yucatan in the GFDL with 2 loops

Wow...ONLY 3 days.

[Damar91]

I said "this far south" because there was some discussion earlier about it not making it down far enough to effect the storm.

[Foladar0]

Wow, the 18z gfdl based on looking at those cords.... would RAKE south floridas metro area's!

I am about 25.9 and 80.1 or so? that would be very not good... lol
-Eric

Ugh. Figured that was coming.

[joseph01]

there is only a 3 day stall over the Yucatan in the GFDL with 2 loops

Wow...ONLY 3 days.

I second that. Only?

[CHRISTY]

hey profesional met do you advise me to put up my shuters here in miami?what conditions do you expect ?are we gonna get hurricane force winds here on the east coast?

[wxmann_91]

hey profesional met do you advise me to put up my shuters here in miami?what conditions do you expect ?are we gonna get hurricane force winds here on the east coast?

His name is Derek. I am only an amateur, but I personally think no. However, strong tropical storm force winds and hurricane force gusts are a good bet.

[Bgator]

hey profesional met do you advise me to put up my shuters here in miami?what conditions do you expect ?are we gonna get hurricane force winds here on the east coast?

I live in miami to and official forecast is 50mph winds, but i would WAIT, the models will change, the storm will change, we have no clue whats gonna happen!

[jhamps10]

I would have them prepared that they could be put up with a little notice, if the track changes, she gets stronger, all kinds of things. here's what I'd do. If you feel safer with them up, go ahead and put them up.