Tropical Storm Ophelia

[hurricanedude]

I wouldnt be to quick to upgrade to TS status.....I would give it a solid 12 hrs of "consistancy" before the upgrade.....I would keep it a TD until the 5am advisory, this will give it a chance to "sustain" itself

[jaxfladude]

I think a cat 2 is not out of the question....as it drifts NW its in water not churned up by tropical systems this season...full of energy, possibly some of the atlantic basins warmest heat source...lessening shear...maybe a 100-105mph storm....SIGNIFICANT by JAX standards!

Just a week or so ago one of the local Jax Mets sadi he was worried about our SST's if they stayed at least as warm over the peak part of the hurricane season(81-85F water temps . IIRC)

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

We'll see what happens- good ol wait and see

Gosh I can't get myself to finish reading Shakespeares a Midsummer
Night Dream for English- I am too addicted to Storm2k LOL

Awesome coincidene Ophelia is also a SHakespeare character!!!

[kevin]

Puck, sux.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Puck, sux.

LOL huh??

[kevin]

Its a poem I made about MSND in AP English. I am quite proud of my poetic achievement.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Its a poem I made about MSND in AP English. I am quite proud of my poetic achievement.

LOL if I could control my storm2k addiction and actually finish reading
the story then I would probably get the poem...

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Regarding my opinion on this recent convection in TD 16
I am surprised at how quickly the convection just blew up!

[cycloneye]

062342
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM EDT TUE SEP 06 2005

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF JUPITER NORTHWARD TO TITUSVILLE INCLUDING
MERRITT ISLAND...AND FOR GRAND BAHAMA...THE ABACOS AND BIMINI.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE BROAD CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
SIXTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.4 WEST
OR ABOUT 35 MILES... 55 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF FREEPORT GRAND
BAHAMA ISLAND AND ABOUT 165 MILES... 265 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAPE
CANAVERAL FLORIDA.

THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY DRIFTING NORTHWARD...WITH A SLOW
NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT. SOME ERRATIC MOTION
MAY OCCUR AS THE DEPRESSION ORGANIZES.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE DEPRESSION HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON WEDNESDAY. NOAA BUOY 41010
RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 26 MPH.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF FLORIDA AND THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...27.0 N... 78.4 W. MOVEMENT
...DRIFTING NORTHWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN

[truballer#1]

Regarding my opinion on this recent convection in TD 16
I am surprised at how quickly the convection just blew up!

FASTER THEN i THOUGHT IT WOULD BE BECAUSE OF NATE.

[truballer#1]

thought nate would slow it down or keep it from organizing much.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Regarding my opinion on this recent convection in TD 16
I am surprised at how quickly the convection just blew up!

FASTER THEN i THOUGHT IT WOULD BE BECAUSE OF NATE.

It is jealous of Nate- Look how fast nate blew up from TD yesterday
to strong TS today. Yup, envy and competition among these systems.
Ophelia is jealous

Meteorologically- TD16 can easily do what Nate did with regards to
strengthening given its current environment

[Windy]

Oh yeah........and what does Joe B really say once it gets to the GOM.

Yeah -- and he's been trying to put 'canes into NOLA for years now... wonder where his new bullseye will be? Surely not NOLA again?

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Oh yeah........and what does Joe B really say once it gets to the GOM.

Yeah -- and he's been trying to put 'canes into NOLA for years now... wonder where his new bullseye will be? Surely not NOLA again?

Well- he might go overboard- but I do like his forecasts analysis

[SouthFloridawx]

AS I GROW IN STRENGTH AND HEIGHT I WILL BE PUSHED BY THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS!!!!



THATS WHY MY FORCAST IS SO UNCERTAIN.....

AWESOME PERSONIFICATION!!! I LOVE THE LITERARY TECHNIQUES!
I am taking AP English Literature right now as a high school senior.

hey thanks although i do not like english.... haha

[truballer#1]

will nate forse td16 sw

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

will nate forse td16 sw

if nate enlarges enough this is a distinct possibility IMO.

[cycloneye]

06/2345 UTC 27.8N 78.3W T2.5/2.5 16 -- Atlantic Ocean


2.5 means tropical storm force winds 35kts so will they upgrade at 11 PM?

Chart of the T numbers.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/CI-chart.html

[truballer#1]

I think they will upgrade it sometime tonight.

[tracyswfla]

06/2345 UTC 27.8N 78.3W T2.5/2.5 16 -- Atlantic Ocean


2.5 means tropical storm force winds 35kts so will they upgrade at 11 PM?

Chart of the T numbers.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/CI-chart.html

Thanks for the link!!