Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

[LAwxrgal]

Cancun and Cozumel will still get blasted...whether this brushes it or takes a direct hit... they will still get blasted.... now the question is, will she stick around the vacation areas or make a summary exit?

EDIT: last couple frames another bend back to the west.

[mike815]

i got about 2 hrs of sleep the night she bombed.

[Deb321]

it looks like its gonna stay ofshore of cancun....

barely! or a slight brush. Wilma is definitely moving and does not show a hint of stalling. By tommorow morining, she will be at the same latitude as Cancun but about 10-30 miles offshore.

http://www.southwx.net/radar/cancun_radar_animated.html

According to TWC Steve Lyons says the eye wall should be moving on shore around Cancun in about 4 hours

[raisinsnacks]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I was in the eye of Emily when she hit the Yucatan this summer, and I have the following thoughts regarding Wilma...

1. No hurricane yet this year has strengthened right before landfall. Neither will Wilma. In the past few years, storm winds have fallen about 20 mph in the 12 hours before landfall (Emily went from 155 to 135). If Wilma's a Cat 5 at 2am, it won't be for long.

2. The storm surge in the area south of Cancun will likely be far less than what you'd normally expect of a storm of this intensity. This is due in part to the island of Cozumel just a few miles offshore, which will protect Playa del Carmen and Tulum. In Playa del Carmen, the surge from Emily was only a few feet. In addition, the area of the peninsula south of Cancun, where Wilma is likely to make landfall, has high rocky beaches--cliffs in many places. This will help to reduce the damage from the surge.

3. The residents of the Yucatan are FAR more efficient and calm about approaching storms than Americans are. They don't panic, but they know what they need to do. The tourism in the area means that well-built concrete buildings to serve as shelters are plentiful. If the current track verifies, I don't look for much loss of life.

4. The worst-case scenario is for a direct hit on Cancun. Here the coastline is much flatter and most of the city is at a low elevation. There would be a significant risk if a large storm surge were to occur. The storm just needs the right track, which I don't think Wilma will have. Also, the city has been spared direct hits from the past few storms, and I fear that people there may have become too complacent and will not take the necessary precautions, as occasionally happens in America. Many of the houses in the Cancun area could generously be described as shanties, and would not stand a chance against 135 mph winds.

5. I'd imagine that Cozumel is a ghost town right now,and rightfully so. They saw with Emily what a hurricane can do. The storm surge will likely be greastest here. I'm not sure how much has been rebuilt since Emily, but if the current track verifies, most of the reconstruction will be wiped away.

6. Some good news is that, unlike the area affected by Stan, this part of Mexico is very flat and rocky, and heavily forested. There will be little risk of mudslides.

7. I predict an exact repeat of Emily: landfall at 135 mph at Tulum.

[skysummit]

it looks like its gonna stay ofshore of cancun....

barely! or a slight brush. Wilma is definitely moving and does not show a hint of stalling. By tommorow morining, she will be at the same latitude as Cancun but about 10-30 miles offshore.

http://www.southwx.net/radar/cancun_radar_animated.html

According to TWC Steve Lyons says the eye wall should be moving on shore around Cancun in about 4 hours

I do believe 4 hours is a little too soon. Anyone else?

[StormWarning1]

I think the YP strike scenario is going to play out, with a hit on Cozumel and then over Cancun. Should weaken considerably, given its slow movement.
I doubt any re-intensification takes place over the Gulf.

[Stratosphere747]

I'm sure she meant Cozumel

[WeatherEmperor]

FWIW the 00Z Nogaps out to 36hrs pulls Wilma pretty deep into the Yucatan around 20N.

<RICKY>

Correction: Not that deep. But deeper then it did in the 12Z run.

[StormFury]

it looks like its gonna stay ofshore of cancun....

It's going to have to take a few jogs due north to do that. It's going to be really close.

Study the radar and consider the Xtrap path...just barely skimming or missing landfall. Certainly no prolonged landfall and no significant weakening can be expected. By the way, there are no mountains in Cancun to disrupt Wilma. If anything, she is moving slighlt faster from 5 mph NW to 6 mph NW according to the latest advisory.

Even Don Sutherland thinks the Yucatan will be spared and SW Florida will experience a cat 3.

"Another run of the models has taken place and the Yucatan stall/drift idea remains a favorite among a number of leading models including the 18z runs of the GFDL and GFS. Nonetheless, given differences with earlier guidance, including the GFDL which had performed quite well relative to the other models with a different outlook, and also the GFS ensembles, I remain reluctant to embrace such a scenario just yet. Historic hurricane climatology also argues for prudence or at least a degree of patience.
In my view, given the guidance, Wilma should brush the Yucatan—making landfall there—but do so at a northwest heading. Once it moves back out over the Gulf of Mexico, I expect some recovery in its strength. I do not believe it will be decimated for two big reasons:

∙ It will avoid most of the relatively cooler water that lies to the direct north of the Yucatan Peninsula.



∙ It will likely continue to move off to the northwest. Hurricane Isidore (2002) actually passed to the north of the Yucatan Peninsula and then dove to the south making a loop over the Yucatan Peninsula and spent roughly 40 hours over the Yucatan Peninsula.

Estimated Intensity:
Intensity at Yucatan Hit or Landfall: 135 mph
Intensity at Florida Landfall: 115 mph"

Source: Don Sutherland, http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 9&start=80

[raisinsnacks]

I forgot to finish my #7 above...

I predict landfall around Tulum at 135 mph. Then, Wilma will skirt up the eastern shore of the Yucatan, battering Cancun with Cat 2/3 winds, but the majority of the town, save a few resorts right on the Caribe, will be spared from the surge.

Once again, amateur opinion. Don't listen to it.

[skysummit]

it looks like its gonna stay ofshore of cancun....

It's going to have to take a few jogs due north to do that. It's going to be really close.

Study the radar and consider the Xtrap path...just barely skimming or missing landfall. Certainly no prolonged landfall and no significant weakening can be expected.

I have been studying the radar, sat, and XTRP all day long and that's why I'm saying it's going to be VERY close to Cancun. I don't think she'll stay over land long, but I do think she'll clip the corner.

[CronkPSU]

it looks like its gonna stay ofshore of cancun....

It's going to have to take a few jogs due north to do that. It's going to be really close.

Study the radar and consider the Xtrap path...just barely skimming or missing landfall. Certainly no prolonged landfall and no significant weakening can be expected.

I have been studying the radar, sat, and XTRP all day long and that's why I'm saying it's going to be VERY close to Cancun. I don't think she'll stay over land long, but I do think she'll clip the corner.

my guess as well...the entire eye wall may not even make it over land

[mtm4319]

I'm still thinking between Cozumel and Cancun.

[CronkPSU]

I'm still thinking between Cozumel and Cancun.

well from the size of that eye, we could both be right...it could hit there and still not have the entire eye make landfall

[CronkPSU]

recon is flying in right now

[mtm4319]

I suspect that this thread will break the record of 110 pages of Katrina.

Almost there.

[TS Zack]

Could Wilma miss the connection with the second stronger trough?

Models continue to slow her down even more.

[skysummit]

Could Wilma miss the connection with the second stronger trough?

Models continue to slow her down even more.

Zack....I see the 2nd trough on WV, but where is the 3rd?

[CronkPSU]

nevermind...working now

[boca]

Where is the second trough and is it digging, and also where is the third ?