Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

[skysummit]

Where is the second trough and is it digging, and also where is the third ?

Can someone please correct this image....this is what I see. Is this right with the 1st and 2nd? Also...where is the 3rd?

[mtm4319]

[CronkPSU]

thanks mtm


hopefully the new image will be up soon...seems to be stuck at 3:56 for a while now

[Bocadude85]

ok so something isnt adding up to me, I dont see how wilma is going to stall the models earlier didnt have her reaching the coast till tomorrow afternoon, she should be on the coast in a few hours

[boca]

Quote:
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I don't see a sharp right turn into SW FL but rather Tampa or Sarasota hit sorry Tampa.Reasoning is because the first two troughs don't seem deep enough to change the overall track to NE but rather NNE.

[mtm4319]

thanks mtm


hopefully the new image will be up soon...seems to be stuck at 3:56 for a while now

Man, didn't even notice that. The radar might have gone down.

[CronkPSU]

thanks mtm


hopefully the new image will be up soon...seems to be stuck at 3:56 for a while now

Man, didn't even notice that. The radar might have gone down.

i was fearing the same thing

[skysummit]

Quote:
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I don't see a sharp right turn into SW FL but rather Tampa or Sarasota hit sorry Tampa.Reasoning is because the first two troughs don't seem deep enough to change the overall track to NE but rather NNE.

Boca...I'm agreeing with you. That first low that was off of Cali a couple days ago when WNW and Wilma missed it. There's another low sitting in the exact same place as that first one and it also looks like it may go WNW following the track of the first.

I know there's really no meteorological explanations in there, but it's just what I see right now.

[JamesFromMaine2]

thanks mtm


hopefully the new image will be up soon...seems to be stuck at 3:56 for a while now

Man, didn't even notice that. The radar might have gone down.

i was fearing the same thing

I have 4:06 for my last image

[Bocadude85]

boca wrote:
Quote:
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I don't see a sharp right turn into SW FL but rather Tampa or Sarasota hit sorry Tampa.Reasoning is because the first two troughs don't seem deep enough to change the overall track to NE but rather NNE.


Boca...I'm agreeing with you. That first low that was off of Cali a couple days ago when WNW and Wilma missed it. There's another low sitting in the exact same place as that first one and it also looks like it may go WNW following the track of the first.

I know there's really no meteorological explanations in there, but it's just what I see right now.




The second trough is expected to catch up to the first one creating a deeper trough

[mtm4319]

thanks mtm


hopefully the new image will be up soon...seems to be stuck at 3:56 for a while now

Man, didn't even notice that. The radar might have gone down.

i was fearing the same thing

I have 4:06 for my last image

Yeah, I just refreshed and it updated.

[skysummit]

boca wrote:
Quote:
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I don't see a sharp right turn into SW FL but rather Tampa or Sarasota hit sorry Tampa.Reasoning is because the first two troughs don't seem deep enough to change the overall track to NE but rather NNE.


Boca...I'm agreeing with you. That first low that was off of Cali a couple days ago when WNW and Wilma missed it. There's another low sitting in the exact same place as that first one and it also looks like it may go WNW following the track of the first.

I know there's really no meteorological explanations in there, but it's just what I see right now.




The second trough is expected to catch up to the first one creating a deeper trough

But the 1st trough has already passed Wilma, so you must be talking about the 3rd one catching up to the 2nd?

[Foladar0]

Where is the second trough and is it digging, and also where is the third ?

Can someone please correct this image....this is what I see. Is this right with the 1st and 2nd? Also...where is the 3rd?

I believe the 3rd is either the top far left one or the one next to that.

[Foladar0]

boca wrote:
Quote:
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I don't see a sharp right turn into SW FL but rather Tampa or Sarasota hit sorry Tampa.Reasoning is because the first two troughs don't seem deep enough to change the overall track to NE but rather NNE.


Boca...I'm agreeing with you. That first low that was off of Cali a couple days ago when WNW and Wilma missed it. There's another low sitting in the exact same place as that first one and it also looks like it may go WNW following the track of the first.

I know there's really no meteorological explanations in there, but it's just what I see right now.




The second trough is expected to catch up to the first one creating a deeper trough

But the 1st trough has already passed Wilma, so you must be talking about the 3rd one catching up to the 2nd?

No, the 2nd one is suppose to catch up to the 1st, to help dig deeper to push the 'cane. The 1st is causing it to budge, nothing more.

[vbhoutex]

#2 is coming off th eTexas coast soon(during the morning). #3 that is coming out of Canada is coming off the Texas coast Saturday/ Sunday.

[Bocadude85]

the third trough is still out over the pacific ocean approaching the pacific northwest

[milankovitch]

UKMET ran at 0500Z has Wilma not making landfall and arriving sooner than previously expected. Will be interesting to see if the other 6Z models pick up on this. Getting late, will be interesting what's going on Friday morning.

[skysummit]

Well, the 1 a.m. advisory keeps her at 150mph....

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... 00524.html

[senorpepr]

656
WTNT34 KNHC 210536
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 23A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1 AM CDT FRI OCT 21 2005

...LARGE EYE OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR WILMA HEADING
TOWARD COZUMEL AND NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO CHETUMAL ON
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM
WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO CELESTUN.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BELIZE FROM THE
BORDER WITH MEXICO SOUTHWARD TO BELIZE CITY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA
HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF
YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE
PROVINCES OF MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE
ISLE OF YOUTH.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1 AM CDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.1 WEST OR ABOUT 90 MILES...
145 KM...SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR. A
SLOW NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE
OF WILMA WILL BE VERY NEAR COZUMEL AND THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY MIDDAY TODAY. HOWEVER...WILMA HAS A
LARGE CIRCULATION AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL BE FELT WELL BEFORE
THE ARRIVAL OF THE CENTER.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. WILMA COULD REGAIN CATEGORY FIVE STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES
THE YUCATAN LATER TODAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 200 MILES...325 KM. NOAA BUOY 42056 RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 70 MPH...112 KM/HR...WITH A GUST TO 85 MPH... 137 KM/HR. AN
AUTOMATIC STATION FROM THE MEXICAN NAVY LOCATED IN ISLAS MUJERES
RECENTLY REPORTED WIND GUSTS TO 58 MPH...93 KM/HR.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 930 MB...27.46 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7-11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL ON
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 20 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH
SATURDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 40 INCHES POSSIBLE...
PARTICULARLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN CUBA. OUTER RAINBANDS
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA...ESPECIALLY
THE KEYS...WITH SOME 1 TO 3 INCH RAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY.

NOAA BUOY 42003 IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO INDICATES THAT LARGE
SWELLS GENERATED BY WILMA HAVE PROPAGATED WELL INTO THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST ON FRIDAY. DATA FROM CUBA INDICATE THAT WAVES UP
TO 20 FEET ARE BEING EXPERIENCED IN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH COAST OF
THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

REPEATING THE 1 AM CDT POSITION...19.5 N... 86.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 930 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
4 AM CDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

$$

[Foladar0]

UKMET ran at 0500Z has Wilma not making landfall and arriving sooner than previously expected. Will be interesting to see if the other 6Z models pick up on this. Getting late, will be interesting what's going on Friday morning.

that UKMet looks like Keys/extreme South FLA hit to me..