Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

[ericinmia]

UKMET stalls her temporarily near the yucatan.... then heads her through the northern keys as a stronger hurricane...

620

WTNT80 EGRR 210459

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 21.10.2005


HURRICANE WILMA ANALYSED POSITION : 18.9N 85.9W



ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL242005



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 21.10.2005 18.9N 85.9W INTENSE

12UTC 21.10.2005 19.8N 86.0W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 22.10.2005 20.4N 86.5W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 22.10.2005 20.5N 86.6W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 23.10.2005 20.7N 86.6W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 23.10.2005 21.4N 86.4W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 24.10.2005 22.7N 85.4W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 24.10.2005 24.4N 83.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 25.10.2005 25.5N 79.1W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

12UTC 25.10.2005 28.8N 74.5W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY

00UTC 26.10.2005 34.4N 66.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 26.10.2005 38.2N 57.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 27.10.2005 39.6N 47.3W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY

[milankovitch]

UKMET ran at 0500Z has Wilma not making landfall over Yucatan and arriving sooner than previously expected at Florida. Will be interesting to see if the other 6Z models pick up on this. Getting late, will be interesting what's going on Friday morning.

Little unclear there.

[mtm4319]

UKMET stalls her temporarily near the yucatan.... then heads her through the northern keys as a stronger hurricane...

12UTC 24.10.2005 24.4N 83.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 25.10.2005 25.5N 79.1W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

That's odd. It would be crossing through the Keys at 80 and 81 degrees W.

[milankovitch]

UKMET stalls her temporarily near the yucatan.... then heads her through the northern keys as a stronger hurricane...

Isn't that the 0000Z UKMET it's the one run at 0500Z that doesn't hit Yucatan. Also, 0600Z GFDL is still stalling over Yucatan though.

[Bocadude85]

question, wilma has gone from 19.3 N to 19.5 N and from 86.0 W to 86.1 W thats .2 N and .1 W isnt that almost NNW?

[gilbert88]

From AP...

El restaurante Señor Frog's de Cancún organizó una fiesta con motivo del huracán, pero no hubo mucha asistencia.

Seems like mostly nobody attended the infamous hurricane party at Señor Frog's...

[ericinmia]

Candian Global is also taking it to the keys... then NE skimming dade county...

[Foladar0]

UKMET stalls her temporarily near the yucatan.... then heads her through the northern keys as a stronger hurricane...

620

WTNT80 EGRR 210459

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 21.10.2005


HURRICANE WILMA ANALYSED POSITION : 18.9N 85.9W



ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL242005



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 21.10.2005 18.9N 85.9W INTENSE

12UTC 21.10.2005 19.8N 86.0W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 22.10.2005 20.4N 86.5W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 22.10.2005 20.5N 86.6W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 23.10.2005 20.7N 86.6W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 23.10.2005 21.4N 86.4W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 24.10.2005 22.7N 85.4W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 24.10.2005 24.4N 83.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 25.10.2005 25.5N 79.1W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

12UTC 25.10.2005 28.8N 74.5W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY

00UTC 26.10.2005 34.4N 66.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 26.10.2005 38.2N 57.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 27.10.2005 39.6N 47.3W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY

Can someone try to explain this? Ugh, so cooonfusseedddddd!
It's suppose to -strengthen- before smacking the Keys according to this, how strong? What would this mean for Homestead / FL City, as we're just north of this? Sooo many things.

[ericinmia]

UKMET stalls her temporarily near the yucatan.... then heads her through the northern keys as a stronger hurricane...

Isn't that the 0000Z UKMET it's the one run at 0500Z that doesn't hit Yucatan. Also, 0600Z GFDL is still stalling over Yucatan though.

They are the same UKMET... it is run at aprox. 0z so just because its labeled 05z doesn't mean its a new run.

UKMET is only run at 0z and 12z
Models take a while to run and publish, hence the time markers being later.

[mtm4319]

Can someone try to explain this? Ugh, so cooonfusseedddddd!
It's suppose to -strengthen- before smacking the Keys according to this, how strong? What would this mean for Homestead / FL City, as we're just north of this? Sooo many things.

I wouldn't put a huge amount of stock in it. The models aren't very good at forecasting intensity.

[skysummit]

UKMET stalls her temporarily near the yucatan.... then heads her through the northern keys as a stronger hurricane...

620

WTNT80 EGRR 210459

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 21.10.2005


HURRICANE WILMA ANALYSED POSITION : 18.9N 85.9W



ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL242005



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 21.10.2005 18.9N 85.9W INTENSE

12UTC 21.10.2005 19.8N 86.0W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 22.10.2005 20.4N 86.5W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 22.10.2005 20.5N 86.6W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 23.10.2005 20.7N 86.6W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 23.10.2005 21.4N 86.4W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 24.10.2005 22.7N 85.4W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 24.10.2005 24.4N 83.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 25.10.2005 25.5N 79.1W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

12UTC 25.10.2005 28.8N 74.5W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY

00UTC 26.10.2005 34.4N 66.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 26.10.2005 38.2N 57.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 27.10.2005 39.6N 47.3W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY

Can someone try to explain this? Ugh, so cooonfusseedddddd!
It's suppose to -strengthen- before smacking the Keys according to this, how strong? What would this mean for Homestead / FL City, as we're just north of this? Sooo many things.

It doesn't pay to kill yourself over all this right now. Let's just wait to see what happens near the Yucatan. By then, hopefully the models will have a better grasp one what's going on.

[ericinmia]

It appears the candian strengthens Wilma after crossing florida...

I can't get access to the NOGAPS rapid update site...
so no 0z run on that

[Foladar0]

Can someone try to explain this? Ugh, so cooonfusseedddddd!
It's suppose to -strengthen- before smacking the Keys according to this, how strong? What would this mean for Homestead / FL City, as we're just north of this? Sooo many things.

I wouldn't put a huge amount of stock in it. The models aren't very good at forecasting intensity.

Oh I'm just moreso curious on the forecasted path, where it intends to go. I know it won't go more than a 3 (wishful thinking, surely hope not) but whatever it is, I just want to be prepared, not worrying at all - yet .. LOL

[skysummit]

http://img482.imageshack.us/img482/1864/cancun7go.jpg

[f5]

is wilma still trying to decide what kind of eye she wants?2 nights ago it was a pinhole rigth now it looks more like a Katrina

[calculatedrisk]

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

HURRICANE WILMA 24L

INITIAL TIME 0Z OCT 21

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 19.1 85.8 320./ 5.0
6 19.5 86.3 306./ 6.1
12 20.0 86.8 317./ 6.9
18 20.3 87.3 302./ 5.8
24 20.3 87.7 268./ 3.5
30 20.2 87.8 232./ 1.7
36 20.2 88.1 284./ 2.3
42 20.3 88.2 274./ 1.5
48 20.4 88.2 349./ 1.0
54 20.5 88.3 315./ 1.4
60 20.7 88.3 9./ 2.4
66 20.9 88.2 24./ 1.9
72 21.0 87.8 69./ 4.4
78 21.2 87.4 64./ 4.3
84 21.2 87.2 99./ 1.8
90 21.1 86.2 99./ 9.2
96 21.6 85.1 62./11.6
102 22.0 84.4 67./ 7.6
108 22.6 83.4 57./11.0
114 23.6 82.3 48./14.9
120 25.2 81.3 33./17.6
126 26.7 80.5 26./17.1

[StrongWind]

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

HURRICANE WILMA 24L

INITIAL TIME 0Z OCT 21

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 19.1 85.8 320./ 5.0
6 19.5 86.3 306./ 6.1
12 20.0 86.8 317./ 6.9
18 20.3 87.3 302./ 5.8
24 20.3 87.7 268./ 3.5
30 20.2 87.8 232./ 1.7
36 20.2 88.1 284./ 2.3
42 20.3 88.2 274./ 1.5
48 20.4 88.2 349./ 1.0
54 20.5 88.3 315./ 1.4
60 20.7 88.3 9./ 2.4
66 20.9 88.2 24./ 1.9
72 21.0 87.8 69./ 4.4
78 21.2 87.4 64./ 4.3
84 21.2 87.2 99./ 1.8
90 21.1 86.2 99./ 9.2
96 21.6 85.1 62./11.6
102 22.0 84.4 67./ 7.6
108 22.6 83.4 57./11.0
114 23.6 82.3 48./14.9
120 25.2 81.3 33./17.6
126 26.7 80.5 26./17.1

That is Waaayyy slow. Eastward bound in 72 hrs. SE Fl. in 5 days.

[DCA]

2:15 AM IR looks real nice. Interesting to see if it can hold it.

[f5]

Wilma's eye looked like Katrina's when she made landfall the eye was still intact with all the convection to the east.it looks like anytime a hurricane has NW winds blowing off land they lose the west side

[mtm4319]

The eye is now 30 miles wide (from 35). She might be ever-so-slightly strengthening, but she's running out of water.