Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

[Scorpion]

Makes much more sense, but still a bit slow.

[AZS]

GFS:

78 Hours



Making landfall

[superfly]

Judging from radar, the western eyewall will miss Cozumel to the east. Cancun, however, will likely not be so lucky.

[Scorpion]

Makes much more sense. GFS is almost right on now it seems.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Makes much more sense. GFS is almost right on now it seems.

Agree Scorp..Looks like it has put itsself thru Rehab..

[caneman]

There is no way this is going to stall and bury itself in the Yucatan. Looks like part of the eye might go over at most. It will need a big jog west to directly impact Cozumel.

Cozumel is getting slammed....they probably are geting major hurricane conditions as we speak...the eyewall is close.

I disagree with the stall. Looks like the system is already caught in the front and just a matter of time before she shoots NE. Perhaps 24 hours.

the current shortwave will not be enough to dig out the system and as it bypasses the system we get very weak if any motion then another sw comes through and helps the process and finally a third one later in the period should finally lift it out. a crobar might get it out now but not this shortwave.

I fully disagree. Look at the 78 hour GFS. She is sitting off Port Charlotte in 78 hours this is fast than the GFDL and indicates to me she will get caught up. This is what I suspect and the GFS seems to verify.

[caneman]

I expect the NHC path will not only shift more North but eill know longer show a stall by 11:00 advisory.

[Normandy]

Judging from radar, the western eyewall will miss Cozumel to the east. Cancun, however, will likely not be so lucky.

Really? Looking at the IR sats on GHCC the western eyewall looks due south of Cozumel

[caneman]

Judging from radar, the western eyewall will miss Cozumel to the east. Cancun, however, will likely not be so lucky.

Really? Looking at the IR sats on GHCC the western eyewall looks due south of Cozumel

It is still East. This will barely clip the NE part of the Yucatan.

[jlauderdal]

There is no way this is going to stall and bury itself in the Yucatan. Looks like part of the eye might go over at most. It will need a big jog west to directly impact Cozumel.

Cozumel is getting slammed....they probably are geting major hurricane conditions as we speak...the eyewall is close.

I disagree with the stall. Looks like the system is already caught in the front and just a matter of time before she shoots NE. Perhaps 24 hours.

the current shortwave will not be enough to dig out the system and as it bypasses the system we get very weak if any motion then another sw comes through and helps the process and finally a third one later in the period should finally lift it out. a crobar might get it out now but not this shortwave.

I fully disagree. Look at the 78 hour GFS. She is sitting off Port Charlotte in 78 hours this is fast than the GFDL and indicates to me she will get caught up. This is what I suspect and the GFS seems to verify.

You suspect the GFS seems to verify...well sometimes it does and sometimes it doesn't. Yes it's a matter of time before it shoots east, duh but this thing is not going to be making some big move to the NE in 24 hours.

[superfly]

Judging from radar, the western eyewall will miss Cozumel to the east. Cancun, however, will likely not be so lucky.

Really? Looking at the IR sats on GHCC the western eyewall looks due south of Cozumel

[caneman]

There is no way this is going to stall and bury itself in the Yucatan. Looks like part of the eye might go over at most. It will need a big jog west to directly impact Cozumel.

Cozumel is getting slammed....they probably are geting major hurricane conditions as we speak...the eyewall is close.

I disagree with the stall. Looks like the system is already caught in the front and just a matter of time before she shoots NE. Perhaps 24 hours.

the current shortwave will not be enough to dig out the system and as it bypasses the system we get very weak if any motion then another sw comes through and helps the process and finally a third one later in the period should finally lift it out. a crobar might get it out now but not this shortwave.

I fully disagree. Look at the 78 hour GFS. She is sitting off Port Charlotte in 78 hours this is fast than the GFDL and indicates to me she will get caught up. This is what I suspect and the GFS seems to verify.

You suspect the GFS seems to verify...well sometimes it does and sometimes it doesn't. Yes it's a matter of time before it shoots east, duh but this thing is not going to be making some big move to the NE in 24 hours.

Apparantly you're hugging the GFDL. Not a good move for this storm.

[Normandy]

Judging from radar, the western eyewall will miss Cozumel to the east. Cancun, however, will likely not be so lucky.

Really? Looking at the IR sats on GHCC the western eyewall looks due south of Cozumel

Yeah ive seen the radar it just appears closer on satelite.

[Bgator]

As of right now Im kinda agreeing with the UKMET, at least for th first 24-48 hours, it does not stall the storm and makes it barely clip The yucatan than turns NE towards S FLA!

[cycloneye]

This thread already surpassed the 110 pages that Katrina had and I thank all the members for the discussions about Wilma which had been very good about the models,movement etc.Keep it up folks until the last advisorie is written for Wilma when finnaly this thread will be locked.

[JamesFromMaine2]

I have noticed something! Playing a loop of the past 15 images it looks to me like she has slowed WAY down if not even pretty much stalled! Can any one else see it?

[n o o d l z]

Nope, I see her getting ready to pass her forecast point and Cozumel to the east...I'm using this loop..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[Windtalker1]

I have noticed something! Playing a loop of the past 15 images it looks to me like she has slowed WAY down if not even pretty much stalled! Can any one else see it?

No

[Normandy]

If u extrapolate that motion the western eyewall would go over Cozumel, despite the eye passing east. Remember the eye is 35 miles wide.

[JamesFromMaine2]

Use this site http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html and set it for animation and past 15 images then click on the center and watch it I swear it looks like that center has slowed way down!