Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

[AZS]

I have noticed something! Playing a loop of the past 15 images it looks to me like she has slowed WAY down if not even pretty much stalled! Can any one else see it?

Watching the loop in NASA site i think that you are correct

[n o o d l z]

If u extrapolate that motion the western eyewall would go over Cozumel, despite the eye passing east. Remember the eye is 35 miles wide.

Yes, right now it looks like the western eyewall will go over Cozumel...the center of the storm doesn't however (not ignoring the potential impact of the western eyewall, just saying for tracking purposes, this appears to be going east of whats forecast, again).

[wxwatcher91]

I have noticed something! Playing a loop of the past 15 images it looks to me like she has slowed WAY down if not even pretty much stalled! Can any one else see it?

Watching the loop in NASA site i think that you are correct

what would it mean if she did stall over water?

would she strengthen or would upwelling get to her quickly?

[Bgator]

Use this site http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html and set it for animation and past 15 images then click on the center and watch it I swear it looks like that center has slowed way down!

You think it has slowed becasue this image updates more than the NHC, so its less movemnet, it updates like every 10 minutes!

[Bgator]

I have noticed something! Playing a loop of the past 15 images it looks to me like she has slowed WAY down if not even pretty much stalled! Can any one else see it?

Watching the loop in NASA site i think that you are correct

what would it mean if she did stall over water?

would she strengthen or would upwelling get to her quickly?

She would probably remain the smae there is plenty of water over there!

[JamesFromMaine2]

I have noticed something! Playing a loop of the past 15 images it looks to me like she has slowed WAY down if not even pretty much stalled! Can any one else see it?

Watching the loop in NASA site i think that you are correct

what would it mean if she did stall over water?

would she strengthen or would upwelling get to her quickly?

Depends on how long she did stall for! it could go either way depending on how long!

[caneman]

I have noticed something! Playing a loop of the past 15 images it looks to me like she has slowed WAY down if not even pretty much stalled! Can any one else see it?

Watching the loop in NASA site i think that you are correct

what would it mean if she did stall over water?

would she strengthen or would upwelling get to her quickly?

Depends on how long she did stall for! it could go either way depending on how long!

She's still moving at around 5 to 6 mph still

[Normandy]

If u extrapolate that motion the western eyewall would go over Cozumel, despite the eye passing east. Remember the eye is 35 miles wide.

Yes, right now it looks like the western eyewall will go over Cozumel...the center of the storm doesn't however (not ignoring the potential impact of the western eyewall, just saying for tracking purposes, this appears to be going east of whats forecast, again).

Well, it went right over the last forecast point. No matter what though Cozumel will probably see damage worse than what Emily did, because they have been experiencing hurricane force winds for about 6-7 hours now.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Got any obs out of there?

[n o o d l z]

If u extrapolate that motion the western eyewall would go over Cozumel, despite the eye passing east. Remember the eye is 35 miles wide.

Yes, right now it looks like the western eyewall will go over Cozumel...the center of the storm doesn't however (not ignoring the potential impact of the western eyewall, just saying for tracking purposes, this appears to be going east of whats forecast, again).

Well, it went right over the last forecast point. No matter what though Cozumel will probably see damage worse than what Emily did, because they have been experiencing hurricane force winds for about 6-7 hours now.

Are you looking at http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html ?

It went right over the last forecast point because that was the 5am location for it...

[jlauderdal]

There is no way this is going to stall and bury itself in the Yucatan. Looks like part of the eye might go over at most. It will need a big jog west to directly impact Cozumel.

Cozumel is getting slammed....they probably are geting major hurricane conditions as we speak...the eyewall is close.

I disagree with the stall. Looks like the system is already caught in the front and just a matter of time before she shoots NE. Perhaps 24 hours.

the current shortwave will not be enough to dig out the system and as it bypasses the system we get very weak if any motion then another sw comes through and helps the process and finally a third one later in the period should finally lift it out. a crobar might get it out now but not this shortwave.

I fully disagree. Look at the 78 hour GFS. She is sitting off Port Charlotte in 78 hours this is fast than the GFDL and indicates to me she will get caught up. This is what I suspect and the GFS seems to verify.

You suspect the GFS seems to verify...well sometimes it does and sometimes it doesn't. Yes it's a matter of time before it shoots east, duh but this thing is not going to be making some big move to the NE in 24 hours.

Apparantly you're hugging the GFDL. Not a good move for this storm.

I am not hugging any model, I am looking at the synoptic setup and i don't see this thing moving as fast as you do. i don't hug one model like you are doing with GFS. Lets hope it stalls over land and weakens. Stay Safe.

jlauderdal

[caneman]

There is no way this is going to stall and bury itself in the Yucatan. Looks like part of the eye might go over at most. It will need a big jog west to directly impact Cozumel.

Cozumel is getting slammed....they probably are geting major hurricane conditions as we speak...the eyewall is close.

I disagree with the stall. Looks like the system is already caught in the front and just a matter of time before she shoots NE. Perhaps 24 hours.

the current shortwave will not be enough to dig out the system and as it bypasses the system we get very weak if any motion then another sw comes through and helps the process and finally a third one later in the period should finally lift it out. a crobar might get it out now but not this shortwave.

I fully disagree. Look at the 78 hour GFS. She is sitting off Port Charlotte in 78 hours this is fast than the GFDL and indicates to me she will get caught up. This is what I suspect and the GFS seems to verify.

You suspect the GFS seems to verify...well sometimes it does and sometimes it doesn't. Yes it's a matter of time before it shoots east, duh but this thing is not going to be making some big move to the NE in 24 hours.

Apparantly you're hugging the GFDL. Not a good move for this storm.

I am not hugging any model, I am looking at the synoptic setup and i don't see this thing moving as fast as you do. i don't hug one model like you are doing with GFS. Lets hope it stalls over land and weakens. Stay Safe.

jlauderdal

Not just huggin one model. The Nogaps and LBAR have been more accurate than the GFDL. Stay Safe.

[AZS]

[DESTRUCTION5]

I will not be more than 48 hrs now before she really starts feeling that Trough...its coming hot and Heavy...

[Weatherfreak14]

Man that eye is gettinh bigger.

[Windtalker1]

I will not be more than 48 hrs now before she really starts feeling that Trough...its coming hot and Heavy...

I agree, this is whats going to make it "Not" hit Cancun but veer it away at the last minute towards the NNE. The fronts moving faster than Wilma.

[skysummit]

I will not be more than 48 hrs now before she really starts feeling that Trough...its coming hot and Heavy...

I agree, this is whats going to make it "Not" hit Cancun but veer it away at the last minute towards the NNE.

For their sake, I hope so. It's getting awefully close...

[O Town]

Yes, and that little island there right off the coast has got to be getting hammered right now.

[wxwatcher2]

The eye is just off the Coast of Cazumel to the East. Movement is NNW. Wilma will move toward the Tip of the Yucatan.

I have never agreed with the stall that is forecast. I think Wilma continues this path with an eventual turn to the NE toward the West coast of Florida.
My opinion has always been for a Florida Landfall near the Sarasota area and not as far South as previously projected.

[cycloneye]

WHXX04 KWBC 211123
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

HURRICANE WILMA 24L

INITIAL TIME 6Z OCT 21

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 19.6 86.1 330./ 5.0
6 20.1 86.6 318./ 7.1
12 20.5 87.2 299./ 6.4
18 20.7 87.6 295./ 4.2
24 20.5 87.9 249./ 3.6
30 20.5 88.1 279./ 1.2
36 20.7 88.2 315./ 1.8
42 20.9 88.2 5./ 2.2
48 21.0 88.2 7./ .8
54 21.3 88.1 7./ 3.4
60 21.6 87.9 33./ 3.7
66 22.0 87.4 54./ 5.7
72 22.3 87.0 54./ 4.7
78 22.5 86.3 74./ 6.6
84 23.0 85.5 58./ 9.4
90 23.7 84.3 58./13.0
96 24.5 83.0 61./14.2
102 26.0 81.5 46./20.3
108 28.1 80.1 33./25.2
114 30.0 78.2 45./24.6
120 32.5 76.5 33./29.4
126 35.3 74.6 35./31.4



6z GFDL