Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

[skysummit]

http://img464.imageshack.us/img464/1235/cancun5qa.jpg

[Windtalker1]

http://img464.imageshack.us/img464/1235/cancun5qa.jpg

May be a bit to far West...my thinking turns NNE before hitting Cancun.

[skysummit]

http://img464.imageshack.us/img464/1235/cancun5qa.jpg

May be a bit to far West...my thinking turns NNE before hitting Cancun.

What may be a bit too far west? I didn't put it there...that's where the radar has it, and that's the official forecast track...not mine.

[Trader Ron]

There is no way this is going to stall and bury itself in the Yucatan. Looks like part of the eye might go over at most. It will need a big jog west to directly impact Cozumel.

Cozumel is getting slammed....they probably are geting major hurricane conditions as we speak...the eyewall is close.

I disagree with the stall. Looks like the system is already caught in the front and just a matter of time before she shoots NE. Perhaps 24 hours.

the current shortwave will not be enough to dig out the system and as it bypasses the system we get very weak if any motion then another sw comes through and helps the process and finally a third one later in the period should finally lift it out. a crobar might get it out now but not this shortwave.

I fully disagree. Look at the 78 hour GFS. She is sitting off Port Charlotte in 78 hours this is fast than the GFDL and indicates to me she will get caught up. This is what I suspect and the GFS seems to verify.

You suspect the GFS seems to verify...well sometimes it does and sometimes it doesn't. Yes it's a matter of time before it shoots east, duh but this thing is not going to be making some big move to the NE in 24 hours.

Apparantly you're hugging the GFDL. Not a good move for this storm.

I am not hugging any model, I am looking at the synoptic setup and i don't see this thing moving as fast as you do. i don't hug one model like you are doing with GFS. Lets hope it stalls over land and weakens. Stay Safe.

jlauderdal

Another non-hugger... From everything i see, Wilma has been pushed back 72 hours. Three day's ago Wilma was forecast to be off the East Coast Saturday Night.

[O Town]

Duh, that is Cuzumel, that little island. I knew Cancun was further north towards the tip. My geography isn't the best. WOW! They are getting slammed. Thanks for the map skysummit.

[cycloneye]

211155
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 24A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
7 AM CDT FRI OCT 21 2005

...NORTHWESTERN EYEWALL OF WILMA NEAR COZUMEL...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO CHETUMAL ON
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM
WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO CELESTUN.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BELIZE FROM THE
BORDER WITH MEXICO SOUTHWARD TO BELIZE CITY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA
HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF
YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE
PROVINCES OF MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE
ISLE OF YOUTH.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 7 AM CDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 20.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.3 WEST OR ABOUT 50 MILES... 80
KM... SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH... 9 KM/HR. ON
THIS TRACK... THE CORE OF WILMA WILL BE VERY NEAR OR OVER COZUMEL
THIS MORNING AND NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA LATER TODAY. HOWEVER... WILMA HAS A LARGE CIRCULATION
AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE PROBABLY ALREADY BEING EXPERIENCED IN
COZUMEL AND ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF YUCATAN.
CANCUN RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG RAINBANDS OVER COZUMEL AND
CANCUN.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED SLIGHTLY AND ARE NEAR 145
MPH... 230 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE TODAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES... 140 KM...
FROM THE CENTER... AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 200 MILES... 325 KM. NOAA BUOY 42056 LOCATED ABOUT 75 MILES EAST
OF THE CENTER RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 69 MPH WITH 35
FOOT SEAS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 930 MB...27.46 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES... CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER ALONG ON THE
NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA.

WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 20 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH
SUNDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 40 INCHES POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN CUBA. OUTER RAINBANDS WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA...ESPECIALLY THE KEYS...WITH
SOME 2 TO 4 INCH RAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY.

NOAA BUOY 42003 IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO INDICATES THAT LARGE
SWELLS GENERATED BY WILMA HAVE PROPAGATED WELL INTO THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY.

REPEATING THE 7 AM CDT POSITION...20.1 N... 86.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 930 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
10 AM CDT.

FORECASTER KNABB

[Kennethb]

If u extrapolate that motion the western eyewall would go over Cozumel, despite the eye passing east. Remember the eye is 35 miles wide.

Yes, right now it looks like the western eyewall will go over Cozumel...the center of the storm doesn't however (not ignoring the potential impact of the western eyewall, just saying for tracking purposes, this appears to be going east of whats forecast, again).

Well, it went right over the last forecast point. No matter what though Cozumel will probably see damage worse than what Emily did, because they have been experiencing hurricane force winds for about 6-7 hours now.

It seems that this summer that most of the tracks go close to the forecast point. I often wonder if the person who puts the forecast points on the floaters can tweak them as needed?

Are you looking at http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html ?

It went right over the last forecast point because that was the 5am location for it...

[Kennethb]

If u extrapolate that motion the western eyewall would go over Cozumel, despite the eye passing east. Remember the eye is 35 miles wide.

Yes, right now it looks like the western eyewall will go over Cozumel...the center of the storm doesn't however (not ignoring the potential impact of the western eyewall, just saying for tracking purposes, this appears to be going east of whats forecast, again).

Well, it went right over the last forecast point. No matter what though Cozumel will probably see damage worse than what Emily did, because they have been experiencing hurricane force winds for about 6-7 hours now.

It seems that this summer that most of the tracks go close to the forecast point. I often wonder if the person who puts the forecast points on the floaters can tweak them as needed?

Are you looking at http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html ?

It went right over the last forecast point because that was the 5am location for it...

[Windtalker1]

http://img464.imageshack.us/img464/1235/cancun5qa.jpg

May be a bit to far West...my thinking turns NNE before hitting Cancun.

What may be a bit too far west? I didn't put it there...that's where the radar has it, and that's the official forecast track...not mine.

OOPS, SORRY... Their track is to far WEST!!!

[stormy1959]

Disclaimer: Just a stupid amateur who is giving an opinion.

Orlando is located at 28.51/81.38. This is too close for comfort. I think it could get here a bit sooner than 4 1/2 days if that is what 108 hours means.

[skysummit]

Down to 145mph and moving NNW @ 6mph. Looks like they're calling for gradual weakening from here on out.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... 00524.html

[wxwonder12]

Once this storm gets into the Gulf how much should we expect the forcast track flip flop if any. It has been so consistent for so many days now it just starts to make you wonder if the NHC is drawing the "little black line" that is not supposed to be focused on in basically the same spot to avoid "confusion" so to speak. My thinking may be way off but if someone could explain I would appreciate it.

[bigmoney755]

looks like it will make landfall at around 135mph and 940mb

[skysummit]

http://goes.gsfc.nasa.gov/goeseast/hurr ... latest.jpg

[cjrciadt]

Interesting windfield.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Interesting windfield.

Perfectly Symetrical and Expanding bigtime!

[N2FSU]

Here is a close-up track on my flight planning software from the 5am advisory. I just don't see it moving that far west.

http://i20.photobucket.com/albums/b227/ ... _wilma.jpg

[O Town]

That wind map of Wilma is amazing.

[HurricaneGirl]

[pup55]

thu 11pm actual: 19.3N 86.0W
Thu 11pm 12z forecast: 19.9N 86.4W 49 miles/4 mph
fri 7AM actual: 20.1N 86.3W 58 miles in 8 hrs 7 mph

The storm is moving faster and more northerly than thought last night.