dixiebreeze wrote:The YP is NOT going to slow this girl down much at all:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... IR4/20.jpg
She is nor match for land...Unless she gains Latitude...She will take a beating...
Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5
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DESTRUCTION5
- Category 5
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cycloneye
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The track from the 10 AM CDT Advisorie.Good news for Florida as it will send a good deal of time in the Yucatan and that will weaken it a good deal.Although a cat 1 or 2 is not a piece of cake.
Last edited by cycloneye on Fri Oct 21, 2005 9:57 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Brent
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BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILMA ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM CDT FRI OCT 21 2005
...NORTHWESTERN EYEWALL OVER COZUMEL...
...CENTER COULD MAKE LANDFALL ON NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN TONIGHT...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO CHETUMAL ON
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM
WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO CELESTUN.
AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS DISCONTINUED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BELIZE FROM THE BORDER WITH MEXICO
SOUTHWARD TO BELIZE CITY.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA
HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF
YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE
PROVINCES OF MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE
ISLE OF YOUTH.
ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 86.5 WEST OR ABOUT 35
MILES... 55 KM... SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.
WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH... 7 KM/HR. ON THIS
TRACK... THE CORE OF WILMA WILL BE OVER COZUMEL DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS AND BE NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. HOWEVER... WILMA HAS A LARGE
CIRCULATION AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE PROBABLY ALREADY BEING
EXPERIENCED IN ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF YUCATAN.
CANCUN RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG RAINBANDS OVER COZUMEL AND
CANCUN.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH... 230 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE WILMA
MAKES LANDFALL ON THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES... 140 KM...
FROM THE CENTER... AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 200 MILES... 325 KM. NOAA BUOY 42056 RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 62 MPH... 100 KM/HR... AND 31 FOOT SEAS.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 930 MB...27.46 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES... CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER ALONG ON THE
NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA.
WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 20 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH
SUNDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 40 INCHES POSSIBLE. OUTER RAINBANDS WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA... ESPECIALLY THE
KEYS... WITH SOME 2 TO 4 INCH RAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY.
NOAA BUOY 42003 IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO INDICATES THAT LARGE
SWELLS GENERATED BY WILMA HAVE PROPAGATED WELL INTO THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST TODAY.
REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION...20.2 N... 86.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...145 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 930 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 PM
CDT.
FORECASTER KNABB
HURRICANE WILMA ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM CDT FRI OCT 21 2005
...NORTHWESTERN EYEWALL OVER COZUMEL...
...CENTER COULD MAKE LANDFALL ON NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN TONIGHT...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO CHETUMAL ON
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM
WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO CELESTUN.
AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS DISCONTINUED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BELIZE FROM THE BORDER WITH MEXICO
SOUTHWARD TO BELIZE CITY.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA
HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF
YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE
PROVINCES OF MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE
ISLE OF YOUTH.
ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 86.5 WEST OR ABOUT 35
MILES... 55 KM... SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.
WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH... 7 KM/HR. ON THIS
TRACK... THE CORE OF WILMA WILL BE OVER COZUMEL DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS AND BE NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. HOWEVER... WILMA HAS A LARGE
CIRCULATION AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE PROBABLY ALREADY BEING
EXPERIENCED IN ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF YUCATAN.
CANCUN RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG RAINBANDS OVER COZUMEL AND
CANCUN.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH... 230 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE WILMA
MAKES LANDFALL ON THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES... 140 KM...
FROM THE CENTER... AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 200 MILES... 325 KM. NOAA BUOY 42056 RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 62 MPH... 100 KM/HR... AND 31 FOOT SEAS.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 930 MB...27.46 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES... CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER ALONG ON THE
NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA.
WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 20 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH
SUNDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 40 INCHES POSSIBLE. OUTER RAINBANDS WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA... ESPECIALLY THE
KEYS... WITH SOME 2 TO 4 INCH RAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY.
NOAA BUOY 42003 IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO INDICATES THAT LARGE
SWELLS GENERATED BY WILMA HAVE PROPAGATED WELL INTO THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST TODAY.
REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION...20.2 N... 86.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...145 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 930 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 PM
CDT.
FORECASTER KNABB
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6SpeedTA95
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Brent
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- Posts: 38102
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- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
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HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI OCT 21 2005
WHETHER DUE TO INTERACTION WITH LAND OR SOME OTHER FACTORS... THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE INNER CORE CONVECTION BRIEFLY WEAKENED
EARLIER THIS MORNING... BUT THAT DID NOT LAST LONG. THE RING OF
VERY DEEP CONVECTION HAS RECONSTITUTED AROUND THE ENTIRE 30 N MI
WIDE EYE... WHICH HAS BECOME A LITTLE CLEARER AND WARMER IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE CANCUN RADAR DEPICTS A VERY SOLID OUTER
EYEWALL OVER COZUMEL... AND THE INNER EYEWALL IS LIKELY WEAKER BUT
PERHAPS NOT AS WEAK AS IT SEEMS ON RADAR DUE TO ATTENUATION.
PASSIVE MICROWAVE OVERPASSES FROM AMSR-E AND AMSU DURING THE PAST
FEW HOURS DEPICT THE OUTER EYEWALL AT A RADIUS OF ABOUT 45 N MI...
AND EARLIER AIRCRAFT DATA CONTAIN WIND MAXIMA AT RADII OF ABOUT 20
AND 45 N MI. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE OUTER EYEWALL WILL CONTRACT
AND LEAD TO INTENSIFICATION IN THE SHORT TERM... BUT EYEWALLS WITH
THIS LARGE OF A DIAMETER SOMETIMES REMAIN STEADY-STATE. DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 12Z DID NOT QUITE SUPPORT THE CURRENT
ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 125 KT... BUT THAT WAS BEFORE THE DEEP
CONVECTIVE RING REFORMED.
WILMA IS LOCATED IN BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER WESTERN
MEXICO AND A MORE EXTENSIVE RIDGE OVER THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC.
THE ATLANTIC RIDGE SEEMED TO HAVE MORE INFLUENCE UNTIL VERY
RECENTLY... WHEN THE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION SLOWED. THE INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW NORTHWESTWARD...325/4...AND THE SHORT TERM
MOTION MIGHT BE EVEN SLOWER. 12Z UPPER-AIR DATA FROM THIS MORNING'S
NOAA G-IV JET SURVEILLANCE MISSION INDICATE PERHAPS EVEN A LITTLE
MORE RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO THAN CONTAINED IN THE
SHORT-TERM FORECASTS FROM THE 06Z MODELS... SO THE SLOWER MOTION
NOW OBSERVED IS NOT SURPRISING. NEARLY ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS
FORECAST THE CENTER OF WILMA TO MAKE LANDFALL ON NORTHEASTERN
YUCATAN TODAY... AS DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE MODELS DO NOT
AGREE ON HOW LONG WILMA WILL SPEND OVER LAND... AND THE NEW
OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHILE ADJUSTED WESTWARD AND SLOWER THAN THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 48 HOURS...REMAINS TO THE EAST OF MOST OF
THE MODELS AND KEEPS WILMA ON LAND FOR LESS THAN 18 HOURS.
OBVIOUSLY... A LONGER STAY OVER YUCATAN COULD CAUSE MORE WEAKENING
THAN FORECAST...BUT THE OPPOSITE IS ALSO TRUE.
IN THE 3 TO 5 DAY TIME FRAME...THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
BASICALLY UNCHANGED. FORTUNATELY FOR THE SAKE OF BETTER AGREEMENT
AMONG THE MODELS... THE NOGAPS NO LONGER KEEPS WILMA IN THE
CARIBBEAN FOR FIVE DAYS AND IS NOW MORE IN LINE WITH THE REMAINING
MODELS. THIS RESULTS IN THE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS BEING IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AT DAYS 3-5. HOWEVER...
THE SPREAD IN THE MODELS REMAINS QUITE LARGE... AND BOTH THE
LOCATION AND TIMING OF THE IMPACTS ON FLORIDA REMAIN VERY
UNCERTAIN. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY IN STEADILY WEAKENING WILMA OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO DUE PRIMARILY TO INCREASING SHEAR. HOWEVER... IF WILMA DOES
NOT SPEND MUCH TIME OVER YUCATAN... IT COULD BE STRONGER THAN
FORECAST WHEN IT CROSSES FLORIDA.
FORECASTER KNABB
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 21/1500Z 20.2N 86.5W 125 KT
12HR VT 22/0000Z 20.8N 87.0W 135 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 22/1200Z 21.3N 87.4W 105 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 23/0000Z 21.8N 87.4W 105 KT
48HR VT 23/1200Z 22.3N 86.9W 100 KT
72HR VT 24/1200Z 24.5N 83.5W 90 KT
96HR VT 25/1200Z 29.5N 77.5W 65 KT
120HR VT 26/1200Z 39.0N 67.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI OCT 21 2005
WHETHER DUE TO INTERACTION WITH LAND OR SOME OTHER FACTORS... THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE INNER CORE CONVECTION BRIEFLY WEAKENED
EARLIER THIS MORNING... BUT THAT DID NOT LAST LONG. THE RING OF
VERY DEEP CONVECTION HAS RECONSTITUTED AROUND THE ENTIRE 30 N MI
WIDE EYE... WHICH HAS BECOME A LITTLE CLEARER AND WARMER IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE CANCUN RADAR DEPICTS A VERY SOLID OUTER
EYEWALL OVER COZUMEL... AND THE INNER EYEWALL IS LIKELY WEAKER BUT
PERHAPS NOT AS WEAK AS IT SEEMS ON RADAR DUE TO ATTENUATION.
PASSIVE MICROWAVE OVERPASSES FROM AMSR-E AND AMSU DURING THE PAST
FEW HOURS DEPICT THE OUTER EYEWALL AT A RADIUS OF ABOUT 45 N MI...
AND EARLIER AIRCRAFT DATA CONTAIN WIND MAXIMA AT RADII OF ABOUT 20
AND 45 N MI. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE OUTER EYEWALL WILL CONTRACT
AND LEAD TO INTENSIFICATION IN THE SHORT TERM... BUT EYEWALLS WITH
THIS LARGE OF A DIAMETER SOMETIMES REMAIN STEADY-STATE. DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 12Z DID NOT QUITE SUPPORT THE CURRENT
ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 125 KT... BUT THAT WAS BEFORE THE DEEP
CONVECTIVE RING REFORMED.
WILMA IS LOCATED IN BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER WESTERN
MEXICO AND A MORE EXTENSIVE RIDGE OVER THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC.
THE ATLANTIC RIDGE SEEMED TO HAVE MORE INFLUENCE UNTIL VERY
RECENTLY... WHEN THE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION SLOWED. THE INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW NORTHWESTWARD...325/4...AND THE SHORT TERM
MOTION MIGHT BE EVEN SLOWER. 12Z UPPER-AIR DATA FROM THIS MORNING'S
NOAA G-IV JET SURVEILLANCE MISSION INDICATE PERHAPS EVEN A LITTLE
MORE RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO THAN CONTAINED IN THE
SHORT-TERM FORECASTS FROM THE 06Z MODELS... SO THE SLOWER MOTION
NOW OBSERVED IS NOT SURPRISING. NEARLY ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS
FORECAST THE CENTER OF WILMA TO MAKE LANDFALL ON NORTHEASTERN
YUCATAN TODAY... AS DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE MODELS DO NOT
AGREE ON HOW LONG WILMA WILL SPEND OVER LAND... AND THE NEW
OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHILE ADJUSTED WESTWARD AND SLOWER THAN THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 48 HOURS...REMAINS TO THE EAST OF MOST OF
THE MODELS AND KEEPS WILMA ON LAND FOR LESS THAN 18 HOURS.
OBVIOUSLY... A LONGER STAY OVER YUCATAN COULD CAUSE MORE WEAKENING
THAN FORECAST...BUT THE OPPOSITE IS ALSO TRUE.
IN THE 3 TO 5 DAY TIME FRAME...THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
BASICALLY UNCHANGED. FORTUNATELY FOR THE SAKE OF BETTER AGREEMENT
AMONG THE MODELS... THE NOGAPS NO LONGER KEEPS WILMA IN THE
CARIBBEAN FOR FIVE DAYS AND IS NOW MORE IN LINE WITH THE REMAINING
MODELS. THIS RESULTS IN THE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS BEING IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AT DAYS 3-5. HOWEVER...
THE SPREAD IN THE MODELS REMAINS QUITE LARGE... AND BOTH THE
LOCATION AND TIMING OF THE IMPACTS ON FLORIDA REMAIN VERY
UNCERTAIN. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY IN STEADILY WEAKENING WILMA OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO DUE PRIMARILY TO INCREASING SHEAR. HOWEVER... IF WILMA DOES
NOT SPEND MUCH TIME OVER YUCATAN... IT COULD BE STRONGER THAN
FORECAST WHEN IT CROSSES FLORIDA.
FORECASTER KNABB
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 21/1500Z 20.2N 86.5W 125 KT
12HR VT 22/0000Z 20.8N 87.0W 135 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 22/1200Z 21.3N 87.4W 105 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 23/0000Z 21.8N 87.4W 105 KT
48HR VT 23/1200Z 22.3N 86.9W 100 KT
72HR VT 24/1200Z 24.5N 83.5W 90 KT
96HR VT 25/1200Z 29.5N 77.5W 65 KT
120HR VT 26/1200Z 39.0N 67.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
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Blown Away
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jpigott wrote:looks like Wilma has stalled right off of Cozumel
Isn't that about where the loop starts? Lots of warm water moving, so upwelling may not happen? If so, that would be bad, very bad...
Last edited by LanceW on Fri Oct 21, 2005 10:26 am, edited 1 time in total.
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otowntiger
- Category 5
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What is really the kicker here is that the intensity forecast is a crap shoot. Sure they can give reasons why they think it will do one thing or another, but rarely have they ever gotten it right. As uncertain as they are about the exact track at least they have reasonable certainty that the storm won't hit Louisiana for example, there is a whole lot less confidence that she will only be a cat 2 when she hits FL. She may be a tropical Storm or a cat 4 for all they really know at this point. Remember Charley was only a 2 the earlier the same day he hit Port Charlotte as a strong 4 and the NHC didn't see that coming.
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Blown Away
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